Smart desperately needs to show improvement in two key statistics to really turn his value around: Reduce his missed shots and reduce his turnovers. The former he can do by either shooting better or taking fewer shots. The latter he just has to get better in his handle and decision making. But he needs to improve these two things or he's never going to be more than he is right now. He's more than good enough in almost every other aspect of the game. But those two things really drag on him. It completely nullifies the value of him getting a defensive stop if he turns around and gives the ball back via a missed shot or turnover.
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But I am very concerned about his lack of developmental progress in the two areas I mentioned.
To be perfectly honest, I don't really understand the level of concern or hand-wringing here.
I would love it if Smart would become a better shooter. I would love it if he became a better pure ball-handler. I'm mystified by how poor a finisher he is given how good he was in college.
All of that said, in my mind Smart has been a valuable player pretty much from day one. He has consistently helped the team win games, he's a major part of the team culture, and a core piece of their defensive game plan (the defense that was the best in the league last year).
To me, it would be great if Smart showed improvement in some other areas, especially those that show up more in the box score.
But even if he continues to be basically the guy he's been, I think he'll be worth his contract.
The main cause for concern I would have for Smart and his value moving forward is that his style of play will lead to more frequent injuries. I also worry what happens if he loses a step and isn't quite as agile moving his feet laterally, getting around picks, etc.
Your post makes it sound like Smart isn't actually a particularly valuable player right now and he needs to show major improvement in order to become one. I don't agree with that perspective.
I genuinely think Smart is in the 99th percentile or whatever in terms of players whose value is not well captured by the stats we most commonly use to measure player value.
That's not to say he doesn't have games where he hurts the team with missed shots or turnovers, but I think his impact is decidedly in the positive category, much more so than your typical ("replacement level") combo guard.