« Reply #683 on: December 11, 2018, 01:07:11 PM »
Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes. As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606). Irving also has a far more extensive injury history. I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract.
The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him. That is what derailed Noah and Rose. Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs. He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course). That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).
History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be. They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time). That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.
I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
Logged
1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1986, 2008