BBall refs projecting them to finish 6th worst which would give us like a 33 percent chance at the pick.
Teams like LA typically underperform these projections by a bit because they are so young and lose close games.
If they trade Clarkson or Randle to clear up space for multiple maxes this offseason they could dip even farther.
Dont think its likely we get the pick, but its entirely possible right now.
6th worst only gives a 15% chance of conveying. Why are posters too lazy to look up basic facts?
My fault. Miswrote the post.
BBall ref projects them to finish in 6th, but projects their chances of landing 2-5 post lotto at ~33%
Yeah, they're wrong. The 6th pick has a 7.1% chancs of landing the 2nd pick and an 8.1% chance of landing the third pick. So add them together, the Celtics have a 15.2% chance of getting a pick if the Lakers finish 6th worst.
yes, but the 33% number is not he probability that the pick lands 2-5 given that LA finishes 6th worst.
They've taken the probability that they believe LA lands in each slot and multiplied that by the probability that each slot results in each post-lotto position and added them up.
Today, BBall ref is projecting LA to have a 33% chance of ultimately seeing the pick conveyed.
Their projection is not perfect, but I think its inaccurate to say that they are "wrong"