Author Topic: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?  (Read 3888 times)

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Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #45 on: November 30, 2022, 12:51:43 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Tatum is better than Brown, and if you take away a top-five player like Tatum the team will not be as good.

Replace Tatum with a league-average starting wing and this is still a very good team. I doubt they’re a title contender, but I’ll say this: the Cs would be better than any other team that lost a top-5 player, and Brown has a lot to do with that. What would these teams be like?

That’s exactly how I see it. And that league average (or better) starting wing is Malcom Brogdon. We would need an athletic defensive wing to spell him and JB. Jaylen would move to Tatum’s place at 3. Sam could still get his backup minutes, but we would need someone who could play 2-3. A stronger defender than Sam and he wouldn’t need to provide much offense. If they needed more scoring from the 3-4, they could cut Jackson or Vonleh and sign Carmelo.

Let's assume it's this team:

(Timelord) / Horford / Kornet / Griffin
Horford / G. Williams / Vonleh
Brown / S. Bey / Hauser
Brogdon / White
Smart / Pritchard

50 win team?  Contender?
If Saddiq Bey is the Tatum replacement, then no to both.

I'm thinking an average starting replacement would be closer to a younger Harrison Barnes -- like 6-7 years younger.  someone that can compete against any other team without killing you on either end but not necessarily someone who's going to make the other team gameplan for them

I think that young Harrison Barnes would be well-beyond an average starting SF.  Looking at the numbers, Bey is about what you get.  Other guys in the discussion would be in the Norman Powell / DeAndre Hunter / Dillon Brooks / Marcus Morris range.


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Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #46 on: November 30, 2022, 01:01:33 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Tatum is better than Brown, and if you take away a top-five player like Tatum the team will not be as good.

Replace Tatum with a league-average starting wing and this is still a very good team. I doubt they’re a title contender, but I’ll say this: the Cs would be better than any other team that lost a top-5 player, and Brown has a lot to do with that. What would these teams be like?

That’s exactly how I see it. And that league average (or better) starting wing is Malcom Brogdon. We would need an athletic defensive wing to spell him and JB. Jaylen would move to Tatum’s place at 3. Sam could still get his backup minutes, but we would need someone who could play 2-3. A stronger defender than Sam and he wouldn’t need to provide much offense. If they needed more scoring from the 3-4, they could cut Jackson or Vonleh and sign Carmelo.

Let's assume it's this team:

(Timelord) / Horford / Kornet / Griffin
Horford / G. Williams / Vonleh
Brown / S. Bey / Hauser
Brogdon / White
Smart / Pritchard

50 win team?  Contender?
If Saddiq Bey is the Tatum replacement, then no to both.

I'm thinking an average starting replacement would be closer to a younger Harrison Barnes -- like 6-7 years younger.  someone that can compete against any other team without killing you on either end but not necessarily someone who's going to make the other team gameplan for them

I think that young Harrison Barnes would be well-beyond an average starting SF.  Looking at the numbers, Bey is about what you get.  Other guys in the discussion would be in the Norman Powell / DeAndre Hunter / Dillon Brooks / Marcus Morris range.
I'd consider them below average except maybe Morris from 2-3 years ago. 

Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #47 on: November 30, 2022, 01:33:30 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Tatum is better than Brown, and if you take away a top-five player like Tatum the team will not be as good.

Replace Tatum with a league-average starting wing and this is still a very good team. I doubt they’re a title contender, but I’ll say this: the Cs would be better than any other team that lost a top-5 player, and Brown has a lot to do with that. What would these teams be like?

That’s exactly how I see it. And that league average (or better) starting wing is Malcom Brogdon. We would need an athletic defensive wing to spell him and JB. Jaylen would move to Tatum’s place at 3. Sam could still get his backup minutes, but we would need someone who could play 2-3. A stronger defender than Sam and he wouldn’t need to provide much offense. If they needed more scoring from the 3-4, they could cut Jackson or Vonleh and sign Carmelo.

Let's assume it's this team:

(Timelord) / Horford / Kornet / Griffin
Horford / G. Williams / Vonleh
Brown / S. Bey / Hauser
Brogdon / White
Smart / Pritchard

50 win team?  Contender?
If Saddiq Bey is the Tatum replacement, then no to both.

I'm thinking an average starting replacement would be closer to a younger Harrison Barnes -- like 6-7 years younger.  someone that can compete against any other team without killing you on either end but not necessarily someone who's going to make the other team gameplan for them

I think that young Harrison Barnes would be well-beyond an average starting SF.  Looking at the numbers, Bey is about what you get.  Other guys in the discussion would be in the Norman Powell / DeAndre Hunter / Dillon Brooks / Marcus Morris range.
I'd consider them below average except maybe Morris from 2-3 years ago.

Below average based upon what, though?  There are only 30 SFs in the NBA.  Those guys are all in about the 50th percentile.

What's your idea of an average SF in today's NBA?


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Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #48 on: November 30, 2022, 02:04:40 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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I guess it depends on how you see the rest of the roster. Last year’s Celtics, with Tatum, won 51. But we also know that’s a little misleading. They stunk in the first half of the season, and since making a few roster and attitude changes over about 60 regular-season games they are winning 80% of their games - a 65-win clip.

I’m not sure why anybody should be confident replacing Tatum with a league average SF/PF will knock 15 wins off the current pace. Maybe we aren’t really an 60+ win team - the west coast trip will show us a lot - but we have been now for a good chunk of time. And again I point to the wizards game. We all mock the wizards, and I get that. But they came in with an above-500 record and an average defense.

Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #49 on: November 30, 2022, 02:40:36 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I guess it depends on how you see the rest of the roster. Last year’s Celtics, with Tatum, won 51. But we also know that’s a little misleading. They stunk in the first half of the season, and since making a few roster and attitude changes over about 60 regular-season games they are winning 80% of their games - a 65-win clip.

I’m not sure why anybody should be confident replacing Tatum with a league average SF/PF will knock 15 wins off the current pace. Maybe we aren’t really an 60+ win team - the west coast trip will show us a lot - but we have been now for a good chunk of time. And again I point to the wizards game. We all mock the wizards, and I get that. But they came in with an above-500 record and an average defense.
Right because we've never seen a team lose a top tier SF and replace them with an average SF and drop 15 wins.  Oh wait, the Heat replaced Lebron with Deng and were 17 games worse (both teams had Wade and Bosh and many of the same other players).  Hmm.   

There is a big difference between a top 5 player in the sport and an average player.  The difference is immense because the top 5 player is so involved with the team and the team success.  The drop off is felt more than a similar gap between lesser important players. 
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Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #50 on: November 30, 2022, 02:58:34 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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I guess it depends on how you see the rest of the roster. Last year’s Celtics, with Tatum, won 51. But we also know that’s a little misleading. They stunk in the first half of the season, and since making a few roster and attitude changes over about 60 regular-season games they are winning 80% of their games - a 65-win clip.

I’m not sure why anybody should be confident replacing Tatum with a league average SF/PF will knock 15 wins off the current pace. Maybe we aren’t really an 60+ win team - the west coast trip will show us a lot - but we have been now for a good chunk of time. And again I point to the wizards game. We all mock the wizards, and I get that. But they came in with an above-500 record and an average defense.
Right because we've never seen a team lose a top tier SF and replace them with an average SF and drop 15 wins.  Oh wait, the Heat replaced Lebron with Deng and were 17 games worse (both teams had Wade and Bosh and many of the same other players).  Hmm.   

There is a big difference between a top 5 player in the sport and an average player.  The difference is immense because the top 5 player is so involved with the team and the team success.  The drop off is felt more than a similar gap between lesser important players.

Losing LeBron was not the only change for the Heat! They also lost Ray Allen and Chris Bosh only played 44 games. Wade, who turned 33 and had no three point shot, had a steep decline. Sure, part of that was missing LeBron, but it was also the other guys and age.

The Heat brought in Dragic to replace LeBron’s ball movement but he only played 26 games, so the roster was a mess. They were giving real minutes to Henry Walker, Shawn Williams, and Shabazz Napier.

Net: 26-year old Jaylen is a much better 3-level score than 33 year old Wade, especially given the much much better roster around him.


Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #51 on: November 30, 2022, 03:00:38 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Tatum is better than Brown, and if you take away a top-five player like Tatum the team will not be as good.

Replace Tatum with a league-average starting wing and this is still a very good team. I doubt they’re a title contender, but I’ll say this: the Cs would be better than any other team that lost a top-5 player, and Brown has a lot to do with that. What would these teams be like?

That’s exactly how I see it. And that league average (or better) starting wing is Malcom Brogdon. We would need an athletic defensive wing to spell him and JB. Jaylen would move to Tatum’s place at 3. Sam could still get his backup minutes, but we would need someone who could play 2-3. A stronger defender than Sam and he wouldn’t need to provide much offense. If they needed more scoring from the 3-4, they could cut Jackson or Vonleh and sign Carmelo.

Let's assume it's this team:

(Timelord) / Horford / Kornet / Griffin
Horford / G. Williams / Vonleh
Brown / S. Bey / Hauser
Brogdon / White
Smart / Pritchard

50 win team?  Contender?
If Saddiq Bey is the Tatum replacement, then no to both.

I'm thinking an average starting replacement would be closer to a younger Harrison Barnes -- like 6-7 years younger.  someone that can compete against any other team without killing you on either end but not necessarily someone who's going to make the other team gameplan for them

I think that young Harrison Barnes would be well-beyond an average starting SF.  Looking at the numbers, Bey is about what you get.  Other guys in the discussion would be in the Norman Powell / DeAndre Hunter / Dillon Brooks / Marcus Morris range.
I'd consider them below average except maybe Morris from 2-3 years ago.

Below average based upon what, though?  There are only 30 SFs in the NBA.  Those guys are all in about the 50th percentile.

What's your idea of an average SF in today's NBA?
I'm thinking Wiggins, Onanuby or Porter.  this may be a matter of semantics between us but I see them as providing average production for the small forward position -- not just specific to the current season.   none of them are all-stars but can provide some offense, some defense without killing the team on either end of the floor -- at least not constantly.  they each have their weaknesses, can put up a really good night and put up a real stinker of a night about as often as they put up the really good ones.

Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #52 on: November 30, 2022, 03:09:57 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Tatum is better than Brown, and if you take away a top-five player like Tatum the team will not be as good.

Replace Tatum with a league-average starting wing and this is still a very good team. I doubt they’re a title contender, but I’ll say this: the Cs would be better than any other team that lost a top-5 player, and Brown has a lot to do with that. What would these teams be like?

That’s exactly how I see it. And that league average (or better) starting wing is Malcom Brogdon. We would need an athletic defensive wing to spell him and JB. Jaylen would move to Tatum’s place at 3. Sam could still get his backup minutes, but we would need someone who could play 2-3. A stronger defender than Sam and he wouldn’t need to provide much offense. If they needed more scoring from the 3-4, they could cut Jackson or Vonleh and sign Carmelo.

Let's assume it's this team:

(Timelord) / Horford / Kornet / Griffin
Horford / G. Williams / Vonleh
Brown / S. Bey / Hauser
Brogdon / White
Smart / Pritchard

50 win team?  Contender?
If Saddiq Bey is the Tatum replacement, then no to both.

I'm thinking an average starting replacement would be closer to a younger Harrison Barnes -- like 6-7 years younger.  someone that can compete against any other team without killing you on either end but not necessarily someone who's going to make the other team gameplan for them

I think that young Harrison Barnes would be well-beyond an average starting SF.  Looking at the numbers, Bey is about what you get.  Other guys in the discussion would be in the Norman Powell / DeAndre Hunter / Dillon Brooks / Marcus Morris range.
I'd consider them below average except maybe Morris from 2-3 years ago.

Below average based upon what, though?  There are only 30 SFs in the NBA.  Those guys are all in about the 50th percentile.

What's your idea of an average SF in today's NBA?
I'm thinking Wiggins, Onanuby or Porter.  this may be a matter of semantics between us but I see them as providing average production for the small forward position -- not just specific to the current season.   none of them are all-stars but can provide some offense, some defense without killing the team on either end of the floor -- at least not constantly.  they each have their weaknesses, can put up a really good night and put up a real stinker of a night about as often as they put up the really good ones.

Yeah.  I would consider those guys above average. 


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Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #53 on: November 30, 2022, 03:19:35 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I don't know what an average NBA SF is.  If there are 30 teams and 3 SFs on each team, is average the 45th best?  Or are you talking about an average starter which would be the 15th best SF in the league.  I don't see it as realistic that we would replace a starter with the 45th best SF in the league.  If we replaced Tatum with a solid starter, I think we would still be pretty good with Brown as our best player.  I think a playoff team with 50'ish wins is not unrealistic.  Maybe win a round or two in the playoffs.

Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #54 on: November 30, 2022, 03:40:53 PM »

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I don't know what an average NBA SF is.  If there are 30 teams and 3 SFs on each team, is average the 45th best?  Or are you talking about an average starter which would be the 15th best SF in the league.  I don't see it as realistic that we would replace a starter with the 45th best SF in the league.  If we replaced Tatum with a solid starter, I think we would still be pretty good with Brown as our best player.  I think a playoff team with 50'ish wins is not unrealistic.  Maybe win a round or two in the playoffs.

I use two definitions: (1) average starter as said above around 15th best SF in league (2) average rotation player. So I do not include the 3rd stringers in this. It is starters + rotation bench players. So the top 60 SFs [30 starters, 30 main bench guys] so someone ranked around 30th best SF in league. A player who is a low end starter to high end bench player.

Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #55 on: November 30, 2022, 03:43:04 PM »

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Average starter = Lu Dort or Dillon Brooks

Average rotation player = Patrick Williams in Chicago, Reggie Bullock, Duncan Robinson, Kelly Oubre. Guys like that.

Re: Is this a 50 team with JB as #1?
« Reply #56 on: November 30, 2022, 11:33:31 PM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

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I wouldn’t be looking for a small forward to replace Tatum. In my view Jaylen is replacing him. As Moranis has repeatedly said, they basically play the same position. JB is may not be on Tatum’s level, but he’s much more that a league average small forward.

Brogdon steps into Brown’s spot. He’s also much more than league average. What is needed is not a starter level player, although someone like Kelly Oubre would be nice. What is needed would be a sixth to eighth level role player to give them a break. Bey would be fine for 15-20 minutes. Hauser gets the same minutes or a slightly bigger opportunity. Payton gets a few more minutes. A border line all star isn’t necessary. Brown and Brogdon have been that guy.