Should Duncan Robinson be in the Heat rotation?

[Roy H.]

Robinson started 68 games for the Heat, but lost his starting role in late March.  He's been out of the rotation for most of the playoffs.

Does anybody know why?  Was it just a matter of him hurting the defense?  I haven't watched the Heat much at all this season, but it's odd to me that he dropped 27 points with 8 3PTs in the first game of the playoffs, and pretty much immediately saw his minutes cut to almost none.  Is it just a matter of them liking Strus better?

I just remember the guy being a huge pest in 2020.  He hit a lot of big threes, shooting over 40% from downtown against us. 

[Celtics2021]

Strus took his spot.  The Heat we’re about 5 points worse with Robinson on the court than off this year, whereas they were about a point better with Strus on than off.  Not sure why this was, but my guess is team’s attacked him on defense, while at the same time his shooting dipped a bit (still fine at 37%, but if you’re getting attacked  on defense, you need to be better).

I do think we’ll see him in this series at some point tho.  At times the Celtics have had a tendency to lose shooters (you’re welcome, Evan Fournier), so putting Robinson out there could pay off for a game.

[footey]

Strus is a much better defender.  The thinking was that Herro himself was a weak link on D, having him and Robinson on court at same time turned them into a poor defensive team. Not that Strus is Marcus Smart out there, but his shooting seems at the same level as Duncan's (better this year, I think) and he is a strong dude.

[Vermont Green]

Yeah, Robinson lost his minutes to Max Strus.  Wow.  Now Strus did improved his 3p% from 34% in 2020/21 to 41% in 2021/22 while Robinson had his shooting decline.

If you accept 538's WAR as an aggregate general indicator, Strus was 3.5 in the regular season over about 1,600 minutes, about what Javonte Green produced.  Robinson was 2.3 in about 2,000 minutes, about the same as Reggie Bullock.

I don't think either Strus or Robinson are all that good.  Fringe starters at best.  Either can get hot and hurt you with 3s but both are also very limited.  Strus apparently proved to the Miami coaching staff that he is a little less limited than Robinson.

To me, whether it is Strus OR Robinson in the rotation doesn't matter much but if Tucker is out and suddenly you have BOTH Strus and Robinson in the rotation and at times on the court together, that is something the Celtics should be able to exploit.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

I would love it if they played Duncan Robinson more. Our athletic team is better than in the bubble. I think Ime can easily get our guys to lock him up. These are the some of the same guys from the Bubble, but this isn't the same Celtics team.

I haven't seen a better defensive basketball team in my life. I'm curious if others feel the same way.

[Phantom255x]

I admittedly am not an expert on the Heat roster, but I remember that even when Robinson played some of the Sixers series, Heat fans were shredding him for his lack of effort on some plays and also his boneheaded defense at times. I think once he switched on to Embiid when he wasn't supposed to and predictably got wrecked lol.

Even watching him yesterday, he made a few shots but otherwise looked clueless on the court and was sort of just running around. I think there's a reason the Heat barely play him. He went off in Game 1 of the Hawks series but that's literally the only time. If he's not shooting 3s well, then he isn't helping in another way. He's terrible on defense and I think the Heat realize(d) that to beat teams like PHI/BOS you need to play some defense too. Strus/Vincent/Herro can give them some of that

Still baffles me they gave him 90M though

[ozgod]

Robinson started 68 games for the Heat, but lost his starting role in late March.  He's been out of the rotation for most of the playoffs.

Does anybody know why?  Was it just a matter of him hurting the defense?  I haven't watched the Heat much at all this season, but it's odd to me that he dropped 27 points with 8 3PTs in the first game of the playoffs, and pretty much immediately saw his minutes cut to almost none.  Is it just a matter of them liking Strus better?

I just remember the guy being a huge pest in 2020.  He hit a lot of big threes, shooting over 40% from downtown against us.

Because Strus is a much better defender and two way player. Even if Marcus didn't make him look such in Game 2  he's apparently much better at switching than Duncan is, and nearly as good a shooter.

[liam]

I admittedly am not an expert on the Heat roster, but I remember that even when Robinson played some of the Sixers series, Heat fans were shredding him for his lack of effort on some plays and also his boneheaded defense at times. I think once he switched on to Embiid when he wasn't supposed to and predictably got wrecked lol.

Even watching him yesterday, he made a few shots but otherwise looked clueless on the court and was sort of just running around. I think there's a reason the Heat barely play him. He went off in Game 1 of the Hawks series but that's literally the only time. If he's not shooting 3s well, then he isn't helping in another way. He's terrible on defense and I think the Heat realize(d) that to beat teams like PHI/BOS you need to play some defense too. Strus/Vincent/Herro can give them some of that

Still baffles me they gave him 90M though

Herro and Vincent are also terrible defenders.

[Who]

I was surprised by it. Duncan struggled mightily at the start of the season and I was expecting him to lose his spot back then but MIA stood by him, he improved and then he lost his spot!

That made no sense to me.

2021 35 games 38% FG% 34.5% 3PT% 11.6ppg 28mpg
2022 44 games 42% FG% 40% 3PT% 10.4ppg 24mpg

He was finally playing better and closer to where he was when he earned that big contract which was 44-47% FG% and 41-44.5% 3PT% and that is when they choose to drop his playing time.

Anyway yeah, Strus has been the more consistent offensive weapon / shooter & ball-handler. So they went with Strus as a starter. I don't see the defensive argument for Strus over Dunc. Strus is slower and worse at covering the perimeter. Strus does switch onto bigger players better but the other perimeter stuff is important since it happens more often.

And then they choose Oladipo and his defensive chops over Duncan (defense vs offense) as a backup wing so Dunc went from starter to bench player to out of the rotation.

Personally, I believe they need his shooting. They are already down two big man shooters in Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk from the 2020 team that made the Finals. Now they are down Lowry too. They don't have enough shot makers. I'd have Dunc in the rotation.

[Kiorrik]

Duncan reminds me of Ray's role on our chip team. As in, an aging Ray

That's how he should be used/paid imo

Running off screens



Not sure if that still has a place in Today's NBA where everyone can run and shoot

[Who]

I admittedly am not an expert on the Heat roster, but I remember that even when Robinson played some of the Sixers series, Heat fans were shredding him for his lack of effort on some plays and also his boneheaded defense at times. I think once he switched on to Embiid when he wasn't supposed to and predictably got wrecked lol.

Even watching him yesterday, he made a few shots but otherwise looked clueless on the court and was sort of just running around. I think there's a reason the Heat barely play him. He went off in Game 1 of the Hawks series but that's literally the only time. If he's not shooting 3s well, then he isn't helping in another way. He's terrible on defense and I think the Heat realize(d) that to beat teams like PHI/BOS you need to play some defense too. Strus/Vincent/Herro can give them some of that

Still baffles me they gave him 90M though

Herro and Vincent are also terrible defenders.

I like Gabe Vincent's defense. I'd rate him as above average. It is his offense that is his problem. He is quite limited on that end of the floor.

[Phantom255x]

I admittedly am not an expert on the Heat roster, but I remember that even when Robinson played some of the Sixers series, Heat fans were shredding him for his lack of effort on some plays and also his boneheaded defense at times. I think once he switched on to Embiid when he wasn't supposed to and predictably got wrecked lol.

Even watching him yesterday, he made a few shots but otherwise looked clueless on the court and was sort of just running around. I think there's a reason the Heat barely play him. He went off in Game 1 of the Hawks series but that's literally the only time. If he's not shooting 3s well, then he isn't helping in another way. He's terrible on defense and I think the Heat realize(d) that to beat teams like PHI/BOS you need to play some defense too. Strus/Vincent/Herro can give them some of that

Still baffles me they gave him 90M though

Herro and Vincent are also terrible defenders.

Yeah but still better than Robinson lol.

Tbh Miami’s defense is great largely due to Butler, Bam and Tucker. The others are meh but they could live with it as long as they shoot well

[Who]

I admittedly am not an expert on the Heat roster, but I remember that even when Robinson played some of the Sixers series, Heat fans were shredding him for his lack of effort on some plays and also his boneheaded defense at times. I think once he switched on to Embiid when he wasn't supposed to and predictably got wrecked lol.

Even watching him yesterday, he made a few shots but otherwise looked clueless on the court and was sort of just running around. I think there's a reason the Heat barely play him. He went off in Game 1 of the Hawks series but that's literally the only time. If he's not shooting 3s well, then he isn't helping in another way. He's terrible on defense and I think the Heat realize(d) that to beat teams like PHI/BOS you need to play some defense too. Strus/Vincent/Herro can give them some of that

Still baffles me they gave him 90M though

Herro and Vincent are also terrible defenders.

Yeah but still better than Robinson lol.

Tbh Miami’s defense is great largely due to Butler, Bam and Tucker. The others are meh but they could live with it as long as they shoot well

I consider Herro to be the worst defender on the team (by a large margin) but he is their 2nd best offensive player after Jimmy. Their offense is dead without him. Nobody else can create their own shot outside of Jimmy. So MIA has to live with Herro's defensive limitations.

I'd rate Jimmy an Bam as high level defensive players. Gabe as above average. PJ as average to slightly average. I am not that high on PJ. He is old; not what he once was. Then I'd rate Dunc, Dedmon and Strus on a similar level with Dunc the best of the trio. Then Herro at bottom of the pile. I'd put Lowry up around Gabe if healthy more for his team D. Oh Oladipo, close to but behind Jimmy and Bam.

MIA got a lot of weak & middling defenders. They are quiet reliant on Bam and Jimmy to do the majority of work defensively for that team. They just hope they other guys can be passable enough / not too weak for their team D to hold firm. They are not a particularly strong defensive team.

They weren't that strong when they made the Finals in 2020 either. They just had more shooting back then. Especially with Olynyk & Meyers Leonard (size + shooters). Which they do not have as much of now.