Playoff Prediction Thread

[td450]

A bunch of teams have been getting some joy defensively against Harden this year. He hasn't been as good at beating his defender off the dribble. There is good reason to be confident in defending him one-on-one if you have capable athletic wing defenders as Toronto does have.

However, if you have to double Embiid and leave Harden open or even partially open ... how many players in the NBA are better at exploiting angles, slithering into space and getting to the basket than Harden?

This is like Shaq and Kobe in 2000-02. Teams have to focus all their attention on Shaq to stop him. To do that they have to leave Kobe and let him play against a collapsed defense. Kobe is free to attack a defense that cannot setup against him because all their focus is on stopping Shaq. Kobe meanwhile is on the weakside waiting for the ball rotation to come to him while he can attack the already broken down team defense.

That is brutal to stop.


.... and then you have Maxey who is lightening fast and very capable of exploiting driving lanes against a collapsed team defense. Nevermind Tobias Harris as the 4th option who can handle, pass and shoot. A well rounded offensive threat.


Toronto's athletic wing defense could cause Harden massive problems if they were allowed to hone in on him but ... but they cannot do that because they have to double team Embiid whenever he gets the ball inside because Toronto have nobody capable of defending Embiid one-on-one leaving Harden free to attack an already scrambling team defense rather than a set defense honed in on him.

They aren't going to double Embiid. They are going to focus on Harden and Harris and make Embiid do all the work. They have a lot of guys to throw at him.

Maxey is a nice player, but Van Vleet is not a good matchup for him.

If Harden and Harris manage to play well, Philly wins. But the matchups aren't very good for either guy and they both tend to underperform under pressure. Toronto is more athletic and deeper, and I expect Harden and Harris to struggle.

[Who]

Another interesting note on the Raptors heading into the playoffs is the VanVleet situation. He has been struggling with an injury for the last few weeks and his shooting has suffered horribly.

Pre All-Star VanVleet had a TS% of 57%.
In 15 games post All-Star VanVleet is down to 48% TS%.

VanVleet is far and away Toronto's best offensive player with his ball-handling, quickness, outside shot making and passing. He is also their player most capable of punishing Embiid in the PnR and on switches.

If he is not able to go and play at a high level, Toronto is in real trouble. Potential sweep. A 4 or 5 game series.

How can you mention this for Van Fleet and not acknowledge how awful Harden has been/looked the last 6 weeks?

Because I was talking about VanVleet. Not Harden.

Yeah but you are literally comparing him to kobe with Shaq and haven’t mentioned it once despite it being one of the worst stretches of shooting for any guard in the league that is considered half decent. Seem to be picking apart torontos issues and not acknowledging any of the 76ers. Feels very biased.

I was comparing Embiid & Harden to Shaq & Kobe in terms of how difficult it was for opponents to load up defensively on both players. Instead they loaded up on Shaq and had to let Kobe loose on the weakside to attack a broken down halfcourt defense.

I was using this an illustration for the challenge Toronto have in terms of defending Harden. I specifically said I like their defense against Harden when they can load up on him, focus on him, because of their athletic defensive forwards. However, when forced to double team Embiid  constantly and leave Harden with open space to attack, this will make Harden's life much easier and give him easier scoring & playmaking opportunities. That is not good for Toronto.

If Toronto had a big bodied center who can play Embiid one-on-one, you could avoid double teaming Embiid. The advantage here is you can now keep your team defense in place and hone in on Harden. Given Harden's poor play of late, that should make any team confident of slowing if not outright shutting him down. The second advantage of this is that Embiid is a lethal scorer but not a lethal passer. If you can defend him one-on-one, you can stop Philly's ball movement and take his teammates out of the game. It is hard to win playing basketball 1-on-5 no matter how good of a scorer you are.

However, Toronto cannot do that because they have no quality defensive center. No big bodied center. They cannot defend Embiid one-on-one credibly. They must double team Embiid. And that in turn will create easier opportunities for Harden, Maxey and Tobias Harris who will in turn create easier opportunities for others as well.

This was Kobe's role in that offense. It was to be the bail-out man on the weakside. The one guy on LA's team who was athletic enough and skilled enough to drive against a scrambling team defense and create a shot for himself or for a teammate (like a wide open 3 for Horry, Fox or Fisher). This is the same type of role Harden can play. So can Maxey. Not so much Tobias Harris but a small-bit Harris.

That Philly has a guy like Harden (and Maxey, and kind of Tobias Harris) on that weakside who can exploit those broken down team defenses from those double teams is something that should trouble Toronto.

[Who]

A bunch of teams have been getting some joy defensively against Harden this year. He hasn't been as good at beating his defender off the dribble. There is good reason to be confident in defending him one-on-one if you have capable athletic wing defenders as Toronto does have.

However, if you have to double Embiid and leave Harden open or even partially open ... how many players in the NBA are better at exploiting angles, slithering into space and getting to the basket than Harden?

This is like Shaq and Kobe in 2000-02. Teams have to focus all their attention on Shaq to stop him. To do that they have to leave Kobe and let him play against a collapsed defense. Kobe is free to attack a defense that cannot setup against him because all their focus is on stopping Shaq. Kobe meanwhile is on the weakside waiting for the ball rotation to come to him while he can attack the already broken down team defense.

That is brutal to stop.


.... and then you have Maxey who is lightening fast and very capable of exploiting driving lanes against a collapsed team defense. Nevermind Tobias Harris as the 4th option who can handle, pass and shoot. A well rounded offensive threat.


Toronto's athletic wing defense could cause Harden massive problems if they were allowed to hone in on him but ... but they cannot do that because they have to double team Embiid whenever he gets the ball inside because Toronto have nobody capable of defending Embiid one-on-one leaving Harden free to attack an already scrambling team defense rather than a set defense honed in on him.

They aren't going to double Embiid. They are going to focus on Harden and Harris and make Embiid do all the work. They have a lot of guys to throw at him.

Maxey is a nice player, but Van Vleet is not a good matchup for him.

If Harden and Harris manage to play well, Philly wins. But the matchups aren't very good for either guy and they both tend to underperform under pressure. Toronto is more athletic and deeper, and I expect Harden and Harris to struggle.

I feel much more confident in this plan if they have the personnel to pull it off. I am not sure they do.

Who do you think Toronto has that can play strong enough defense on Embiid to avoid them double teaming?

I do agree that Toronto has the personnel to stop / slow down Harden & Tobias Harris if they can avoid double teaming Embiid. TOR have great defensive options against those guys.

[celticsclay]

Another interesting note on the Raptors heading into the playoffs is the VanVleet situation. He has been struggling with an injury for the last few weeks and his shooting has suffered horribly.

Pre All-Star VanVleet had a TS% of 57%.
In 15 games post All-Star VanVleet is down to 48% TS%.

VanVleet is far and away Toronto's best offensive player with his ball-handling, quickness, outside shot making and passing. He is also their player most capable of punishing Embiid in the PnR and on switches.

If he is not able to go and play at a high level, Toronto is in real trouble. Potential sweep. A 4 or 5 game series.

How can you mention this for Van Fleet and not acknowledge how awful Harden has been/looked the last 6 weeks?

Because I was talking about VanVleet. Not Harden.

Yeah but you are literally comparing him to kobe with Shaq and haven’t mentioned it once despite it being one of the worst stretches of shooting for any guard in the league that is considered half decent. Seem to be picking apart torontos issues and not acknowledging any of the 76ers. Feels very biased.

I was comparing Embiid & Harden to Shaq & Kobe in terms of how difficult it was for opponents to load up defensively on both players. Instead they loaded up on Shaq and had to let Kobe loose on the weakside to attack a broken down halfcourt defense.

I was using this an illustration for the challenge Toronto have in terms of defending Harden. I specifically said I like their defense against Harden when they can load up on him, focus on him, because of their athletic defensive forwards. However, when forced to double team Embiid  constantly and leave Harden with open space to attack, this will make Harden's life much easier and give him easier scoring & playmaking opportunities. That is not good for Toronto.

If Toronto had a big bodied center who can play Embiid one-on-one, you could avoid double teaming Embiid. The advantage here is you can now keep your team defense in place and hone in on Harden. Given Harden's poor play of late, that should make any team confident of slowing if not outright shutting him down. The second advantage of this is that Embiid is a lethal scorer but not a lethal passer. If you can defend him one-on-one, you can stop Philly's ball movement and take his teammates out of the game. It is hard to win playing basketball 1-on-5 no matter how good of a scorer you are.

However, Toronto cannot do that because they have no quality defensive center. No big bodied center. They cannot defend Embiid one-on-one credibly. They must double team Embiid. And that in turn will create easier opportunities for Harden, Maxey and Tobias Harris who will in turn create easier opportunities for others as well.

This was Kobe's role in that offense. It was to be the bail-out man on the weakside. The one guy on LA's team who was athletic enough and skilled enough to drive against a scrambling team defense and create a shot for himself or for a teammate (like a wide open 3 for Horry, Fox or Fisher). This is the same type of role Harden can play. So can Maxey. Not so much Tobias Harris but a small-bit Harris.

That Philly has a guy like Harden (and Maxey, and kind of Tobias Harris) on that weakside who can exploit those broken down team defenses from those double teams is something that should trouble Toronto.

TP, good analysis and explanation of your thoughts. I have heard a lot of the basketball analysts and former coaches talking about a strategy where you know one player is going to get his, but you let the rest of the team beat you. I think this could be a very good strategy for Embid because he is asked to do more than probably any player in the league. If he is doing 40 post ups over the course of the game he is going to be extremely exhausted on the defensive end and that will significantly impact their defense. Maxey has been outstanding all year from 3, but they do play some shooters that have really extended struggles from 3 that I would not feel bad about doubling off (at least initially). Korkmaz is shooting 28% from 3 for the year on 4 attempts a game. Shake Milton is at 32% for the year. Thybulle when he plays in this series is 31%. These are some people you can leave open unless they get hot (this is also saying nothing of Harden shooting 30% the last 6 weeks). Nurse is also a much better coach than Rivers so I expect him to make some adjustments a lot quicker that Doc Rivers can adapt to. Something related to this is Rivers continuing to play Deandre Jordan who barely belongs in China at this point. When they lost to Toronto a few years back it was primarily because they got murdered in the few minutes Embid was off the court playing Greg Monroe.   

[footey]

ESPN "experts" with their predictions:

9 pick Nets, 7 pick Celtics.

Most predict series going 7 games. Only 2 predict 6 games (both pick Nets).

[slamtheking]

ESPN "experts" with their predictions:

9 pick Nets, 7 pick Celtics.

Most predict series going 7 games. Only 2 predict 6 games (both pick Nets).

typical lack of real analysis and going with the NBA line of picking the 'flashier' team that'll boost ratings.  that and the usual anti-Celtic bias

[bdm860]

ESPN "experts" with their predictions:

9 pick Nets, 7 pick Celtics.

Most predict series going 7 games. Only 2 predict 6 games (both pick Nets).

Link for those who want to see.

It's okay, Legler is picking the C's, one of the few experts that's usually on the C's side when the other experts are wrong.

Legler was one of 4 (out of 10) who thought the C's would beat the Pistons in 2008, and then the only expert to pick the C's over the Lakers in the Finals.

Not sure why he wasn't submitting picks in other years, but here's some other looks when the experts were wrongfully going against the C's.

13 out of 18 picked the Raptors to beat the Celtics in 2020.

Only 3 of 21 experts (Forsberg, Friedell, Spears) picked the Celtics over the Sixers in 2018.

A slight majority (11 of 21) had the Wizards over the Celtics in 2017.

[SparzWizard]

Alright, looks like the playoffs begin tomorrow!

East First-Rounds:
1. Miami vs 8. Atlanta - Miami in 6
2. Boston vs 7. Brooklyn - Boston in 7
3. Milwaukee vs 6. Chicago - Milwaukee in 4
4. Philadelphia vs 5. Toronto - Philadelphia in 7

East Semis:
1. Miami vs 4. Philadelphia - Philadelphia in 6
2. Boston vs 3. Milwaukee - Boston in 7

East Finals:
2. Boston vs 4. Philadelphia - Boston in 6

West First-Rounds:
1. Phoenix vs 8. New Orleans - Phoenix in 5
2. Memphis vs 7. Minnesota - Memphis in 7
3. Golden State vs 6. Denver - Denver in 6
4. Dallas vs 5. Utah - Utah in 6

West Semis:
1. Phoenix vs 5. Utah - Phoenix in 4
2. Memphis vs 6. Denver - Denver in 6

West Finals:
1. Phoenix vs 6. Denver - Phoenix in 5

NBA Finals:
1. Phoenix vs 2. Boston - Boston in 6

Boston Celtics win NBA Championship and raise Banner #18. 

[Phantom255x]

Okay, here's mine. It's actually somewhat similar to what @SparzWizard has right above me^

East First-Rounds:
1. Miami vs 8. Atlanta - Miami in 6
2. Boston vs 7. Brooklyn - Boston in 6 
3. Milwaukee vs 6. Chicago - Milwaukee in 4
4. Philadelphia vs 5. Toronto - Philadelphia in 7

East Semis:
1. Miami vs 4. Philadelphia - Philadelphia in 6
2. Boston vs 3. Milwaukee - Boston in 7 (home court will come clutch here)

East Finals:
2. Boston vs 4. Philadelphia - Boston in 6

West First-Rounds:
1. Phoenix vs 8. New Orleans - Phoenix in 5
2. Memphis vs 7. Minnesota - Memphis in 6
3. Golden State vs 6. Denver - Golden State in 6
4. Dallas vs 5. Utah - Utah in 6 (assuming Doncic is out for some time, but it'll be extremely tough for DAL if he misses the first 3 or even 4 games)

West Semis:
1. Phoenix vs 5. Utah - Phoenix in 5
2. Memphis vs Golden State - Golden State in 6

West Finals:
1. Phoenix vs Golden State - Phoenix in 6

NBA Finals:
1. Phoenix vs 2. Boston - Boston in 6  (Tatum Finals MVP)

I got the C's going all the way. I believe in them and I'm going for it here. Probably the first time since being on this blog (which has dated back to I think 2014) that I've actually predicted heading into the playoffs the C's go all the way and win it all. A few of those years though they unfortunately had gone in with key injuries so that sucked. Pray for no injuries and for Timelord to come back fairly soon

[GreenEnvy]

ESPN "experts" with their predictions:

9 pick Nets, 7 pick Celtics.

Most predict series going 7 games. Only 2 predict 6 games (both pick Nets).

Now it’s 11 Celtics, 10 Nets (17 predicting it goes the distance).

[Neurotic Guy]

I have doubts about Cs ability to close out a series, especially without Rob.  A close closeout game favors the Nets IMO.  So, I’m hoping to see that dominant-looking Celtics team overwhelm Brooklyn, but  not expecting it. 

But couldn’t be more excited for game 1. Can’t wait.

[Erik]

Celtics in 5 vs nets imo.

Best iso defense vs a team that relies on it primarily. Smart is going to be all over Kyrie.
Nets have too many weak defenders to be able to defend the Tatum elbow or 3 pointer. Look for multiple variations of switches to get  Tatum a blowout matchup. The dream here is a Tatum/Kyrie iso. This will either end up in a high percentage shot or a wide open teammate.. and hopefully get him into foul trouble.

[Phantom255x]

Okay, here's mine. It's actually somewhat similar to what @SparzWizard has right above me^

East First-Rounds:
1. Miami vs 8. Atlanta - Miami in 6
2. Boston vs 7. Brooklyn - Boston in 6 
3. Milwaukee vs 6. Chicago - Milwaukee in 4
4. Philadelphia vs 5. Toronto - Philadelphia in 7

East Semis:
1. Miami vs 4. Philadelphia - Philadelphia in 6
2. Boston vs 3. Milwaukee - Boston in 7 (home court will come clutch here)

East Finals:
2. Boston vs 4. Philadelphia - Boston in 6

West First-Rounds:
1. Phoenix vs 8. New Orleans - Phoenix in 5
2. Memphis vs 7. Minnesota - Memphis in 6
3. Golden State vs 6. Denver - Golden State in 6
4. Dallas vs 5. Utah - Utah in 6 (assuming Doncic is out for some time, but it'll be extremely tough for DAL if he misses the first 3 or even 4 games)

West Semis:
1. Phoenix vs 5. Utah - Phoenix in 5
2. Memphis vs Golden State - Golden State in 6

West Finals:
1. Phoenix vs Golden State - Phoenix in 6

NBA Finals:
1. Phoenix vs 2. Boston - Boston in 6  (Tatum Finals MVP)

I got the C's going all the way. I believe in them and I'm going for it here. Probably the first time since being on this blog (which has dated back to I think 2014) that I've actually predicted heading into the playoffs the C's go all the way and win it all. A few of those years though they unfortunately had gone in with key injuries so that sucked. Pray for no injuries and for Timelord to come back fairly soon

Feeling pretty good about my first round picks so far. Only two that might go either way is Utah-Dallas and Memphis-Minnesota. Injuries have definitely impacted some things too like how long certain series will go (Raps-Sixers for example may finish in 5, while Suns-Pelicans may actually go 6 or 7, etc.)

[tarheelsxxiii]

CelticsBlog meet-up at a Celtics vs. GSW Finals game in Boston.

How much would it cost to see them play in the Finals in Boston? Any estimates?

[Moranis]

Injuries playing a factor so predictions changing

East

Heat over Sixers in 5
Celtics over Bucks in 7

Celtics over Heat in 6


West

Warriors over Grizzlies in 5
Mavs over Suns in 6

Mavs over Warriors in 6


Finals

Celtics over Mavs in 6