Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose

[mmmmm]

Stats don't tell the whole story.

If Celts are so good with Hayward then why is the Celtic record just 16-10 when Hayward is playing?

This may get mis-interpreted by some as blaming Smart, but ... well, unfortunately there have been several games where we played Smart and Hayward together a lot due to injuries to Jaylen and/or Kemba.  And unfortunately, the effect up above gets neutralized somewhat when Hayward plays with Smart because Smart handles the ball a lot.   In fact, with Smart on the floor with Hayward, the team plays somewhat worse on offense.

Kemba, Jaylen & Jayson all defer to Gordon a ton for playmaking.  But with Smart, Brad has him handle the ball because he is less effective as a 'space-maker' without the ball.  Teams like the Bucks notoriously sag way off of Marcus unless he has the ball.  So this forces Hayward into the corner as a spot-up shooter and negates much of his play-making.

Just watching this current game right now against MEM, with Jaylen out, and Smart moved up to the starting lineup, we see the same effect.  The starters struggled to generate offense out of the gate.  What little they did was off Hayward (4 assists already before the end of the 1st) but the ball spending too much time in other people's hands.

This team needs to be healthy and with everyone in their proper role.   

Important - please don't take this post as a knock against Smart.  I love Marcus and he's super valuable to this team.  But he and Gordon don't mix optimally on offense.  I like Smart best when he's the playmaker for the bench.

Interesting take, as always. And I do think that you’re seeing something real. But color me skeptical about your conclusion; and whatever it is that you’re looking at, the sample size isn’t big enough (that’s a caveat, not a refutation).

Consider:

1) Smart’s Usage is only 17.9%;

2) There are two distinct kinds of lineups when Smart and Hayward have appeared together: with Kemba and without, meaning when Marcus isn’t the primary ballhandler, and when he is.  The offensive performance of those two groups of lineups is very different.

a) The most often used lineup with those two together also has Kemba:  Walker-Smart-Tatum-Hayward-Theis. That one has played together 75.9 minutes, and has an offensive efficiency of 1.11 (defensive 1.01).

b) The second and third most often used lineups with those two together does not have Kemba:  i) Smart-Brown-Tatum-Hayward-Theis. That one has played together 43.4 minutes, and has an offensive efficiency of .99 (defensive 1.12); and ii) Smart-Brown-Tatum-Hayward-Kanter. That one has played together 19.1 minutes, and has an offensive efficiency of  0.95    (defensive 1.08).

c) The fourth most often used lineup with those two together also has Kemba:  Walker-Smart-Brown-Tatum-Hayward. That one has played together 12.4 minutes, and has a stellar offensive efficiency of 1.24 (defensive 1.00).

That last one has a minuscule sample size, but in fact none of these four represents a lot of possessions.

The point is clear enough. Smart/Hayward, apparently, is an excellent offensive pairing, as long as there is a point guard in the lineup along with them (or maybe only as long as Walker is with them, or...). I offer this to you with a grain of salt.

I didn't really want to create a whole side-thread on this.  But in brief,

When Gordon and Marcus share the floor together (900 possessions), Gordon averages 4.7 assists per 100 possessions (Marcus averages 8.0 per 100).  The team has an offensive rating of 112.7 points per 100.

When Gordon is on the floor without Marcus (828 possessions), he averages 7.9 assists per 100 possessions.  The team has an offensive rating of 121.6.

Gordon's USG rate is nearly identical (~20%) in each case.

Very clearly though, when they share the floor, Gordon is deferring some of his ball-handling to Marcus.   This is not at all unreasonable, given their relative skill sets and the nature of the team.   And I'm not at all pointing this out to criticize Marcus.  Marcus is a very good passer and obviously he provides a ton of value on the defensive side.

But there is a very clear and obvious difference in the way the offense works - and in particular Gordon's role in it - when Marcus is on the floor with him.

And the effect is, imho, that it diminishes the total value that Gordon is capable of bringing compared to when he owns the ball more.   That is literally the only point being made here.

I should point out that Kemba's ball-handling is _also_ diminished in these lineups when Smart joins he and Gordon on the floor.  In lineups with Gordon+Kemba w/o Smart, Kemba averages 8 assists per 100.  That drops to 5.5 if Smart is with them (while Smarts is 7.6).   So, actually, when all three are on the court, Smart is indeed handling the ball most.

Note that, unlike for Gordon, Kemba's USG rate actually climbs up (from 25.2% to 29%) when Marcus joins he and Gordon.

Lineups with Gordon+Kemba w/o Marcus (610 possessions) have an Offensive Rating of 128.6.
Lineups with Gordon+Kemba+Marcus (458 possessions) have an Offensive Rating of 114.0.
Lineups with Kemba+Marcus w/o Gordon (769 possessions) have an Offensive Rating of 112.3.

Summary:   When Gordon and Kemba are on the floor w/o Smart, they tend to share primary ball-handling almost perfectly equally.  When Smart joins them, they both defer a significant portion of their ball-handling to him and he becomes the primary ball-handler.

[BackDoorCut]

Let's just take Vernon carey jr with the memphis pick. and keep gordon.

Vernon Carey will not be available if the Celts get the 14th pick.

The Memphis pick is looking like last year's Kings pick.

I'd say it's a toss up at this point.There's a 50/50 split from mock drafts (did a quick google and checked first 10 or so results) on him going 10 or him going late teens-early 20s. Either way, 10 is enough that you can trade up for a marginal asset. Our wings are set. We need to swing for the fences on a big man. If we hit. It's on like donkey kong.

[Fierce1]

Drummond doesn't scare anyone about how well he attacks the paint. He's not an amazing post player , or an willing/effective roll man most of the time. He's a mediocre finisher at the rim and a bad foul shooter, also very turnover prone.

The only thing he does that adds value on offense is offensive rebound, I have great news for you the Celtics employ Enes Kanter who is even better than Drummond at that.

And again on defense Giannis/Embiid just dunk him into the basket, without regard for human life as Marc Jackson would say.

If Kanter is so good then why can't he average 20 minutes per game, at the very least.

Kanter is not even playing half of 48 minutes.

Every team that Kanter has played for in the past gave up on him.

And Brad Stevens doesn't play players who are bad on defense.

Because they don't need him to play more than 20 min/game when they also have Theis or the ability to throw an effective small ball lineup out there.

Simply not true.

Reason why Kanter is playing the lowest minutes per game, since his 2nd year in 2012-13, is because he's so bad on defense.

Brad Stevens yanks him every time he misses a defensive assignment or he lets the opposing player get an easy bucket.

If you can't grasp the concept of team depth & situational basketball, then there's no reason to continue to bang my head arguing with you over utter nonsense.

Keep spamming across threads the same stuff, though.  That'll end well.

Spamming?

Do you have proof that I've been spamming the same stuff across multiple threads?

Why are you accusing me of something that I didn't do?

You can check for yourself how many threads I posted in the last few days and see what I posted.

See that little NGT next to your name? That's called a history.  That little two week vacation you took awhile back? That's some proof.  The fact that you have history of essentially coming in & hijacking/spamming threads and beating a dead horse with the same point over & over & over again?  That's called a track record.

History can change.

The fact that you're accusing me of doing something I didn't do now means you're making false assumptions.

The past is the past.

My question to you is did I spam multiple threads in the now, not in the past?

[Fierce1]

Wait wait wait, you think DeMar freaking benched in the playoffs DeRozen was better than Kyle Lowry? Okay I'm done here.

Benched in the playoffs?

DeRozan averaged 36.2 minutes per game in the 1st round of the 2018 playoffs.

In the 2nd round against the Cavs, where the Raptors got swept, DeRozan averaged 34 minutes per game.

DeRozan averaged 35.4 minutes per game in the playoffs that year.
35 minutes a game is being benched?

He got benched in game 3 against the Cavs in the eastern semi-finals, the last competitive minutes of basketball the Raptors played until they traded him and fired Dwyane Casey.

That entire series the Raptors got smoked with him on the court.

So he got benched in one game, the one where he only played 28 minutes, right?

Still doesn't change the fact that he was Toronto's best player that season.

History will show Toronto traded their best player, DeRozan, for a rental of Kawhi.

[nickagneta]

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