The Athletic Article on 8 Draft Sleepers - Azuolas Tubelis

[Smartacus]

Yesterday the Athletic put out an article on 8 second round sleeper prospects, all of which are intriguing for the Celtics. I clicked on it looking for info on Adama Sanogo and Julian Strawther but came away with one of my new favorite sleeper prospects in the draft Azuolas Tubelis - 6'11 Junior out of Arizona. Here is the writeup on Tubelis.

https://theathletic.com/4606258/2023/06/13/nba-draft-sleepers-adama-sanogo/

For about six weeks during the middle of last season, Tubelis was the best player in college basketball. Between Dec. 22 and Feb. 9, he averaged 22.1 points over a 13-game stretch, to go along with 10.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.5 steals. He shot 56.6 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from 3-point range. An ankle injury slowed him down just a little the rest of the way, but Tubelis scored 20 or more points in four of his last six games, proving enough to lead him to enter the draft as a junior.

The question for Tubelis will be on defense, particularly with respect to his ability to switch on smaller players away from the basket. That’s why there’s a good chance he won’t even get drafted next Thursday. That would be a mistake. By excelling in one of the country’s fastest programs over the last three years, Tubelis has showed that he can cover a lot of ground on a basketball court, and his Lithuanian pedigree has bestowed him with a high basketball IQ. There’s a reason European players tend to be so successful in today’s NBA, and I fully expect Tubelis to fall into that pattern. With his size, skill and quick mind, he has the potential to be an effective pro for a long time.

Tubelis is a highly productive junior out Lithuania and given the track record of Euro Bigs in the league today I think that odds of getting a quality rotation player in the second half might be too good to pass up. Arizona is the program that produced Lauri Markanen, they play an NBA style with a fast pace.

I am still high on Jordan Walsh and would be fine with Strawther or Sonogo, but I think Tubelis might have the highest upside of the bunch.

[Smartacus]

Here are the rest of the Writeups. Is there anyone else that you think we should be aiming for?

Amari Bailey, 6-5 freshman guard, UCLA
I saw Bailey play in person early last season in Las Vegas, where the Bruins lost to Illinois and Baylor. I was struck by how uncomfortable Bailey looked shooting the ball, which was a problem considering his position was shooting guard. He had a combined six points on 2-of-10 shooting in the two games. It was early in the season, of course, and I knew he’d get better, but Bailey looked far from the one-and-done player he was projected to be coming out of high school. Over the ensuing weeks he had a couple of 19-point games against Pepperdine and Stanford, but when he went out with a foot injury in late December, it looked like Bailey was headed for a lost season.

As it turned out, the chance to watch from the bench for seven games did Bailey some good, because when he returned in late January, he was a different player. He scored a season-high 24 points in a Feb. 9 win at Oregon State, dropped 26 against Colorado in the Pac-12 tournament and averaged 17.3 points on 45.5 percent 3-point shooting over his last four games. He showed quickness, bounce and increasing confidence in his jump shot. Bailey went from averaging 9.5 points on 36.4 percent 3-point shooting in the 13 games before his injury to 12.5 points on 40.6 percent 3-point shooting in the 17 games afterward. Had Bailey returned to Westwood for his sophomore season, he would have most likely continued that ascent and played himself into the first round of the NBA Draft. Some lucky team is about to get him for a lot less money.

Emoni Bates, 6-9 sophomore forward, Eastern Michigan
Bates’ talent is undeniable. He is tall, agile, quick, explosive and highly skilled. He averaged 19.2 points (on 33.0 percent 3-point shooting), 5.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists last season for the Eagles. He had four games where scored at least 30, including a dazzling 43-point eruption in a loss at Toledo. Bates was just 17 years old when he started his freshman season at Memphis, so he will be 19 on draft night. He has one of the highest ceilings in this draft.

Ah, but will he reach it? There are plenty of questions about Bates’ maturity, toughness and work ethic. His guilty plea in December to a misdemeanor gun charge did nothing to alleviate those concerns. It is critical that whatever team chooses him does its due diligence on Bates’ background, but given how young he is, it’s possible those issues could erode in time. If that happens, Bates offers a set of of physical gifts that can’t be acquired. I wouldn’t take him in the first round, but if he falls to the middle of the second or later, he’s well worth the risk.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., 6-6 senior forward, UCLA
There is a seemingly endless list of players whose draft stock suffered because NBA folks were so focused on what they couldn’t do that they missed all the things they could. Now it’s Jaquez’s turn to make those teams look foolish for passing him up. He’s not overly big, or super quick, or vertically explosive, and he shot just 32.8 percent from 3 in college. Yet he was a four-year starter who was directly responsible for a lot of really big wins, displaying a knack for making whatever play UCLA needed at a given time to put an opponent away down the stretch. And Jaquez showed a remarkable ability to play through serious injury while remaining productive.

I also like that Jaquez got better every year. His scoring, rebounding and assist averages went up each season, and as a senior he was the Pac-12 Player of the Year and a consensus second-team All-American. Jaquez definitely needs to stretch his shooting range, but that is the one skill that is most improvable if the player is willing to put in the time. If there’s one thing Jaquez has proved, it’s that he has the requisite work ethic to succeed in the pros. His maturity, high basketball IQ and versatility at both ends of the floor will assure him a long career in this league.

Keyontae Johnson, 6-5 senior guard, Kansas State
Here’s a guy who is built like an NFL linebacker, soars like an Olympic high jumper and drains feathery jumpers like an NBA guard. He landed at Kansas State last season and in short order led a previously moribund program to within a possession of making the Final Four. He averaged 17.4 points and 6.8 rebounds and made 40.5 percent of his 3-point attempts. So why is he projected as a mid-second-round pick at best?

The answer, of course, is the frightening incident on Dec. 12, 2020, when Johnson collapsed due to a heart episode during a game against Florida State. He spent three days in a medically induced coma and made a full recovery, but it was two years before he was able to play in a competitive game again. Obviously, selecting Johnson would require a team to conduct its due diligence on his health, but his heart was monitored very closely last season, and he still played like an All-American. If that question can be answered, then Johnson is clearly a first-round talent. And you can’t discount the perspective and appreciation someone gains after going through that kind of experience.

[Smartacus]

Adama Sanogo, 6-9 junior forward, UConn
During the first three minutes of the Huskies’ Final Four game against Miami, Sanogo stroked in two 3-pointers from the top of the key. They weren’t exactly works of art — Sanogo has a push set shot, and the Hurricanes had left him wide open for a reason — but they weren’t anomalies, either. Sanogo had attempted (and missed) just one 3-pointer during his first two seasons in Storrs, but as a junior he made 19 of his 52 attempts for a cool 36.5 percent. That doesn’t make him Stephen Curry, but it’s a pretty decent sample size that indicates this very strong big man with soft hands has the potential to knock down long-range shots at the next level.

And that is really the only question Sanogo is facing as he transitions to the league. Like a lot of big men, he could be vulnerable defending ball screens away from the basket, but Sanogo has also improved drastically in this regard. There is still a place in the NBA for the big, strong, rugged, warrior, old-school power forward. Dan Hurley says Sanogo works as hard and as intensely as any player he has ever coached, and that sense of purpose and professionalism leads me to believe that Sanogo will be a workmanlike power forward in the NBA for many years. There’s a reason Sanogo was the runaway choice for Most Outstanding Player during UConn’s dominant NCAA Tournament run. He’s really good, and he has a lot of room to get better.

Adam Flagler, 6-3 senior guard, Baylor
The NBA loves shooters and spacers, so Flagler will fit right into the league’s wide-open, analytics-driven offenses. He’s bigger than you think, and he has an ultra quick release and deep range that make him play even taller. I especially love that Flagler made the leap from playing for Presbyterian as a freshman to being a featured performer in one of the best programs in the Big 12. He is also coming off his best college season, averaging 15.6 points (on 40.0 percent 3-point shooting) to go along with 4.6 assists and 2.4 rebounds. Flagler is also a career 80.8 percent free throw shooter, and he was named first team all-conference in America’s toughest league.

Yet most draft boards have Flagler going at the end of the second round, if at all. That would be a big whiff. He’ll never make the All-Defense team in the NBA, but he’s good enough on that end not to get embarrassed, and his marksmanship from deep more than makes up for it. The rule of thumb in drafting used to be when in doubt, take size. Nowadays, it’s when in doubt, take shooting. Flagler is one of the top shooters in the draft.

Julian Strawther, 6-7 junior guard, Gonzaga
Here’s another guy with an NBA-ready body and skill set who has shown a capacity to improve. As a freshman, Strawther played just 7.4 minutes per game for the Zags and averaged 3.4 points. Those numbers rose to 11.8 points in 26.8 minutes as a sophomore and 15.2 points in 31.2 minutes last season. His 3-point percentage and free throw percentage went up each year as well. That level of stick-to-it-tiveness is in increasingly short supply in today’s portalized era. Strawther could have left for a program where minutes and shots were more plentiful. He chose to remain in Spokane, work on his game and become a key cog in a winning program. That bodes well for his professional future.

As an athlete, Strawther isn’t going to remind anyone of Aaron Gordon, but he’s big, skilled and quick enough to be an effective NBA player. Not to mention that he has shown a knack for hitting big shots, none bigger than the deep 3 from the center court logo to beat UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen. Strawther hit a shot from almost the same spot earlier in the season to give the Zags a win at BYU. Those aren’t just big moments, they’re formative experiences, and Strawther will carry that confidence into the league, in turn benefiting whichever team is smart enough to draft him.

[Who]

That guy Amari Bailey looks a good talent for a 2nd round pick. He looks more like a mid first or low 20s type player to me.

[Who]

Is Jaime Jaquez a Dillon Brooks type player?

Inefficient dodgy shooter but hard nosed competitor. Is his defense high caliber? Or just good?

[Celtics2021]

The Athletic also released draft tiers.  Tier 5 went from player 17-36, Tier 6 went from players 37-42.  So the C’s, if the draft went close to that order, would be on the cusp of Tier 5/Tier 6.  For perspective, the players listed here were in the following tiers:

Tier 5:
Jacquez

Tier 6:
Bailey

Tier 7:
Sanogo
Flagler
Strawther

Tier 8:
Tubelis
Bates

Not on the list:
Johnson (different writers have different opinions, but my guess is he was left off due to his heart issue).

So of the sleeper list, Bailey seems like the one most appropriate for our draft position.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Is Jaime Jaquez a Dillon Brooks type player?

Inefficient dodgy shooter but hard nosed competitor. Is his defense high caliber? Or just good?

He's a shot-creator and excellent passer. I would compare him more to an unathletic Jimmy Butler.

[Who]

Why isn't Keyontae Johnson a lottery pick?

Good size. Great build. Athletic. Tough competitor. Two way player. Can drive, can shoot.

[Who]

Could that guy Adam Flager be a good replacement for Pritchard?

A floor spacing 3rd string PG. A bit more height than Pritchard at 6-3.

[liam]

Yesterday the Athletic put out an article on 8 second round sleeper prospects, all of which are intriguing for the Celtics. I clicked on it looking for info on Adama Sanogo and Julian Strawther but came away with one of my new favorite sleeper prospects in the draft Azuolas Tubelis - 6'11 Junior out of Arizona. Here is the writeup on Tubelis.

For about six weeks during the middle of last season, Tubelis was the best player in college basketball. Between Dec. 22 and Feb. 9, he averaged 22.1 points over a 13-game stretch, to go along with 10.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.5 steals. He shot 56.6 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from 3-point range. An ankle injury slowed him down just a little the rest of the way, but Tubelis scored 20 or more points in four of his last six games, proving enough to lead him to enter the draft as a junior.

The question for Tubelis will be on defense, particularly with respect to his ability to switch on smaller players away from the basket. That’s why there’s a good chance he won’t even get drafted next Thursday. That would be a mistake. By excelling in one of the country’s fastest programs over the last three years, Tubelis has showed that he can cover a lot of ground on a basketball court, and his Lithuanian pedigree has bestowed him with a high basketball IQ. There’s a reason European players tend to be so successful in today’s NBA, and I fully expect Tubelis to fall into that pattern. With his size, skill and quick mind, he has the potential to be an effective pro for a long time.

Tubelis is a highly productive junior out Lithuania and given the track record of Euro Bigs in the league today I think that odds of getting a quality rotation player in the second half might be too good to pass up. Arizona is the program that produced Lauri Markanen, they play an NBA style with a fast pace.

I am still high on Jordan Walsh and would be fine with Strawther or Sonogo, but I think Tubelis might have the highest upside of the bunch.

Strawther is my pick too. I really like Tubelis as well. I think either of those guys could play off our bench even as fast as next year.

[Who]

Does Strawther project to have a better NBA role player skill-set than Jaquez?

The superior 3 point shooting for Strawther looks a point of separation for the two.

[liam]

Does Strawther project to have a better NBA role player skill-set than Jaquez?

The superior 3 point shooting for Strawther looks a point of separation for the two.

Strawther's shot is money and he has that sweet floater game and seems like a better athlete but not as strong. I do like Jaquez as well. He has a little Tyler Herro in his game.

[Atzar]

Why isn't Keyontae Johnson a lottery pick?

Good size. Great build. Athletic. Tough competitor. Two way player. Can drive, can shoot.

Not sure anybody wants to touch his medical history.  Collapsed with a heart issue in a game back when he played for Florida.  Supposedly he has a clean bill of health, but that incident might scare teams away.

I really like him as a player though.  If he's fully healthy, he can help a team. 

[Celtics2021]

Why isn't Keyontae Johnson a lottery pick?

Good size. Great build. Athletic. Tough competitor. Two way player. Can drive, can shoot.

He nearly died in a college game 2.5 years ago.  That’s why he’s not a lottery pick.

[CFAN38]

Yesterday the Athletic put out an article on 8 second round sleeper prospects, all of which are intriguing for the Celtics. I clicked on it looking for info on Adama Sanogo and Julian Strawther but came away with one of my new favorite sleeper prospects in the draft Azuolas Tubelis - 6'11 Junior out of Arizona. Here is the writeup on Tubelis.

For about six weeks during the middle of last season, Tubelis was the best player in college basketball. Between Dec. 22 and Feb. 9, he averaged 22.1 points over a 13-game stretch, to go along with 10.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.5 steals. He shot 56.6 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from 3-point range. An ankle injury slowed him down just a little the rest of the way, but Tubelis scored 20 or more points in four of his last six games, proving enough to lead him to enter the draft as a junior.

The question for Tubelis will be on defense, particularly with respect to his ability to switch on smaller players away from the basket. That’s why there’s a good chance he won’t even get drafted next Thursday. That would be a mistake. By excelling in one of the country’s fastest programs over the last three years, Tubelis has showed that he can cover a lot of ground on a basketball court, and his Lithuanian pedigree has bestowed him with a high basketball IQ. There’s a reason European players tend to be so successful in today’s NBA, and I fully expect Tubelis to fall into that pattern. With his size, skill and quick mind, he has the potential to be an effective pro for a long time.

Tubelis is a highly productive junior out Lithuania and given the track record of Euro Bigs in the league today I think that odds of getting a quality rotation player in the second half might be too good to pass up. Arizona is the program that produced Lauri Markanen, they play an NBA style with a fast pace.

I am still high on Jordan Walsh and would be fine with Strawther or Sonogo, but I think Tubelis might have the highest upside of the bunch.

Azuolas Tubelis is a player I have struggled to rank. Mid college bball season I have him projected as a late first or high second but that was when I assumed he was bigger then he ultimately measured. At 6'8.75" 235lbs with a 6'11" wingspan he is shorter, lighter, and not as long as I had assumed. This worries me on the defensive end. As a undersized below the rim center I struggle to find value for a player who will likely struggle defensively. Had he measured as a true 7' with a bigger frame he could project as a rim protector.

The reasons why I was so high on Tubelis and honestly this post has me debating moving him up on my board (currently 56) is his production and the parallels he has to Sabonis. Along with college production he was also highly productive at every level of FIBA youth tourneys.