« Reply #78 on: April 24, 2024, 08:37:59 PM »
I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.
For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.
Going by the contract also seems silly.
What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.
There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc. Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.
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2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick
Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip