I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year. I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year. 5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.
I'm surprised you said that. Are you betting that he will be able to return to 2018 playoff form with Kyrie gone?
If not that, close to it. But if he does, $15 million is a bargain. 19 PGs made at least $12 million last year. They include Jordan Clarkson ($12.5 million), Brandon Knight ($14.6 million), and Dennis Schroder ($15.5 million). Sure, you’ve got some bargains like Kemba Walker ($12 million), but his deal was signed when the cap was $63 million as opposed to $109 million, so that’s not a fair comparison. Clarkson and Schroder are the numbers to look at. Clarkson was signed as a 6th man, Schroder as a starter with some potential but also glaring holes. Both were signed after the big cap spike, but even then the cap was ~10% less than it will be this year. If you think that Rozier is between Clarkson and Schroder in value, that would put him in the $14-$17 million range. I personally prefer Rozier to Schroder, but I wouldn’t fight someone arguing the other way. I would object to anyone preferring Clarkson.
Add to it there are a lot of teams with cap space this summer (compared to last summer when the market for Smart collapsed), and I think the $12-15 million range is reasonable if not conservative for where his salary could wind up.
It will be interesting to see what Rozier gets, personally I'm not sure if he'll get the offers he's looking for, I could see him signing a Julius Randle 1+1 deal to try to improve his worth and get a bigger contract next year. There's a lot of PGs available.
A quick google search puts him at the #8 in a couple of free agent PG lists (
here and
here).
You have your superstars and stars (Irving, Walker, Russell).
You have your vets (Dragic, Rubio, Rose, Rondo, Beverely, Collinson).
You have your vet reclamation projects (Isaiah, with Rose being a successful one last year).
You have your young(er) guys (Brogdon, Rozier, Payton, Mudiay). Brogdon has proved himself a legit, consistent starter while none of the others have (on a good team at least). All the rest have pros/cons and huge question marks. Mudiay is 2 years younger, better size, and can score. Payton has shown he can be a good distributor with better size and played extremely well 2nd half of the year (with a string of 5 straight triple doubles). Rozier has shown he can deliver as a playoff starter (most of the time).
Plus there's also the trade market where you can land Ball or Conley. Frank Ntilikina if you want a project. Dennis Smith Jr is thought to be available if the Knicks can land 2 big free agents or get a big name in a trade (though probably less likely now with Durant injured and Anthony Davis in LAL). Jeff Teague is capable of holding down the fort for a year as a salary dump.
Or maybe a change of scenery rejuvenates Reggie Jackson (1 yr left) or Dennis Schroder (2 years left). Might be wise to try those guys out for a year or 2 instead of committing 4-5 years to Rozier.
Then look at the teams with actual cap space (
using this as a source, slightly outdated since before lottery and before AD trade):
New York Knicks $74,924,755 - chasing bigger fish, have Dennis Smith, Jr.
LA Clippers $59,661,930 - chasing bigger fish
Atlanta Hawks $39,990,046 - have Trae Young
Los Angeles Lakers $39,595,196 - chasing bigger fish
Sacramento Kings $37,218,993 - have De'Aron Fox
Dallas Mavericks $36,906,251 =
Utah Jazz $33,680,097 =
Brooklyn Nets $33,551,161 = chasing bigger fish, have Russell
Indiana Pacers $32,839,748 = going after Conley?
Chicago Bulls $22,062,197 = have Kris Dunn but can definitely upgrade him
Denver Nuggets $18,347,041 = have Murray
Phoenix Suns $15,617,932 = going after Ball?
Minnesota Timberwolves $12,649,433 = typo on list, actually projected to have negative cap space
Milwaukee Bucks $10,764,906 = have Brodgon, Bledsoe
So take out the teams with better PGs (SAC, ATL, DEN, MIL), the teams that won't be pursuing Rozier as a priority (NYK, LAC, LAL, BRK), and you're left with questionable fits (UTA, IND), and a few rebuilding teams (DAL, CHI, PHX). Sure it only takes 1 team to offer him a big deal, and who knows how the dominoes fall at the draft or in free agency that could leave a new team in desperate need of a PG.
A lot of PGs available, and while there's a lot of teams with cap space, I don't know if many will be pursuing Rozier. Will be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets.