Author Topic: Danny's drafting ability reputation  (Read 10927 times)

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Danny's drafting ability reputation
« on: April 20, 2018, 11:43:02 AM »

Online bdm860

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It's amazing how fickle things like "drafting ability" can be.  Danny’s been the C’s GM for 15 years now, and in that time it seems like his reputation went from good drafter, to bad drafter, to great drafter.
   
If you asked me, in his first 5 years, I thought Ainge drafted pretty well, especially for a team that was mostly drafting outside of the lottery.  Now he didn’t hit any grand slam home runs, didn't nab any All-NBA/All-Stars in the 2nd round, but he had a couple big hits in Big Al and Rondo, and a lot of solid if unspectacular picks with the rest, many of which he was eventually able to flip for value at some point.  To me the only whiffs were Marcus Banks and using #7 to trade for Telfair, the rest were good moves.  I considered this a good 5 year stretch for Ainge:

'03-'07: Trying to rebuilding around Pierce years
Hits                                  Misses     
Kendrick Perkins                 Marcus Banks
Al Jefferson                        #7 for Telfair
Delonte West
Tony Allen
Gerald Green
Ryan Gomes
Rajon Rondo
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
#5 for Ray Allen


But then once the C's assembled the championship team for '08, Ainge didn't seem to do so well. Definitely had a solid hit in Avery Bradley, and Sullinger contributed all 4 years even if Ainge was unable to get any value for him in the end and was lost for nothing,  but now the hits seemed few and far in between.  Suddenly he wasn't getting those consistent solid hits in the late first rounds like he did when the team was rebuilding, nor was he nabbing any rotation players in the 2nd.  Not only was he not drafting good players, but he was missing out on great players, studs like DeAndre Jordan, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Draymond Green who were all available near where Danny was drafting.  This hurt his reputation too, passing up studs to draft duds.  More misses over the same number of drafts with fewer picks.  Maybe Danny wasn't really a good drafter, and just got lucky over his first 5 years?

'08-'12: Big 3 Era
Hits                                  Misses     
Avery Bradley                    JR Giddens
Jared Sullinger                   JaJuan Johnson
                                        Fab Melo


Then the C's enter a new rebuilding era with Stevens, and at first, Danny's drafting looks a little murkier here.  Guys like Olynyk and Smart were okay where they were drafted, and while Olynyk was lost for nothing he did help win a playoff series coming up huge in Game 7 vs. Washington.  He was a solid contributor all 4 years, and the same can be said for Smart.  They weren’t duds, but it’s hard not to look at Olynyk and not think about how the C’s could have had Giannis, while at the same time wondering if Smart should be brought back and will be worth his next contract.  While not whiffs, these picks weren’t helping his reputation as a drafter.  Then it seemed like a lot of busts and question marks:  James Young was a bust.  RJ Hunter was a bust.  The Rozier pick was (now infamously) given an F.  Danny tried to trade 4-6 picks for Justice Winslow, he picked Jaylen Brown about 5-6 spots too high, he failed to flip players or picks for Noel or Okafor, he passed up a generational talent in Fultz to draft Tatum, who trades out of the #1 spot?  He let Josh Jackson’s reps bully him into drafting somebody else.  In between the ’16 (Brown) and ’17 (Tatum) drafts, Danny’s reputation has a drafter still hadn’t been repaired.

As of now though, Danny looks like a genius again.  The recent picks that were criticized, now look like gold.  Rozier has ascended to meme status, Brown and Tatum look like studs.  Others laughed at Danny, but now Danny's the one laughing.

'13-'17: The Golden Era of Stevens
Hits                                  Misses         
Kelly Olynyk                      James Young
Marcus Smart                    RJ Hunter
Terry Rozier
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum

(With Yabusele and recent 2nd rounders too soon to tell).


All this to say, I think it's interesting how Danny's drafting reputation has been all over the place, especially how it seems to have flipped recently.  Solid in the first 5 years, disappointing in the contending years, and it didn't look good at first during the Stevens era, but now it looks great.  Still it could swing the other way again (Fultz could have an MVP season, Rozier comes back to earth and is lost for nothing, Brown and Tatum's career trajectory starts to look more like Michael Carter Williams, etc.).  But for now, it's nice that our GM looks like a great drafter again.  In Danny I trust!

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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2018, 12:05:49 PM »

Offline Moranis

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit. 
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Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2018, 12:13:13 PM »

Offline tonydelk

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2018, 12:34:12 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.
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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2018, 12:40:25 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Danny has turned his reputation around, and this is coming from someone who believed he was a better drafter than Danny for half a decade. 

He's missing where it's expected you'll get little help, late in the first round and in the 2nd- but he's nailing his recent top 3 / lottery / near lottery picks, picks he needs to knock out of the park to build an elite team (going 3 or 4 out of 4 with Tatum, JB, Rozier, and maybe Smart). 
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PG: Deron Williams 07-08 / M.R. Richardson 80-81 / J. Wall 16-17
SG: David Thompson 77-78 / Hersey Hawkins 96-97
SF: Tracy McGrady 02-03 / Tayshaun Prince 06-07
PF: Larry Nance Sr 91-92 / Blake Griffin 13-14
C: Bob Lanier 76-77 / Brad Daugherty 92-93 / M. Camby 06-07

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2018, 12:58:57 PM »

Online bdm860

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That's a fair opinion.  Though personally I wouldn't judge a draft pick by where they'd go in a redraft.  Extreme examples being: no way Olajuwon goes #1 in a redraft of '84, doesn't make it a bad pick, and you'd take Harden or Curry ahead of Blake in '09, doesn't mean Blake wasn't a hit.

What determines a "hit" can clearly vary by person, and I definitely lean on the side of if it's not a miss then it must be a hit.  Not a lot of talent in the top 10 the year Smart was drafted, and Danny got a useful player who has been a key contributor to playoff teams.  I consider that a hit in my book.  Though at the same time I will agree all hits aren't created equal, some are walk off grand slam home runs, some are a solo homers, bases clearing doubles, RBI singles, bases empty blooper, etc.  Guys like Smart are more of a single than a home run.  Definitely didn't describe him as a big hit in what I wrote.

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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2018, 01:21:18 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I have said this for year's, as compared to his contemporaries, Danny is an above average drafter. I don't blame him for busts when picking in the 20's, most of those players amount to nothing. I don't blame him for not picking up studs in the 2nd round. Every GM in the draft passed up on those players once, so they are all equally stupid for not having taken that player earlier.

And as for the rest. I think he is above average. Mostly good picks. Some great picks. Some missing out on great players to take an okay player. A bad pick or two.

Danny is pretty much an above average drafter. Not sure how many other GMs you can say have, over the past 15 years been much, much better than Danny. Given that so many GMs don't last that long tells me, a whole lot of them probably didn't have a draft record better than Danny.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2018, 01:26:50 PM »

Offline Moranis

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.
exactly, and I personally think Parker still probably goes ahead of him.  I also think Warren clearly goes ahead of him (19.3 ppg this year with steady improvement all along).  Then you have real arguments on both Lavine and Hood.  Then you have someone like Bogdan Bogdanovic who was a rookie this year, but played quite well.  I mean right now Smart goes ahead of Bogdanovic, but what if Bogdanovic is just getting started.  A team might consider that potential growth.  Smart has been better than guys like Payton, McDermott, Powell, Anderson, etc. but not so much better than I think he would always go ahead of them in a redraft (though he would right now). 

Smart was the 6th pick in the draft, but imo would be from 12-14 in a redraft.  That is much closer to a miss than a hit. 
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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2018, 01:30:53 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

So smart passes 6 of the guys in the top 10 but is still considered a bad pick cause there were a bunch of foreign guys that hit at various points much later? That doesn't seem fair

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2018, 02:38:11 PM »

Offline Erik

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Realistically, no one is really expecting much from a draft pick outside of the lottery -- really outside of the top 5. The important thing is that he knocked his 2 top 5 picks out of the park (most redrafts show Tatum #1 and Brown #2 behind Simmons), and Marcus Smart is a 3 point shot away from being really good (he's still only 23 years old). I personally don't give a Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. if R.J Hunter at #28 didn't pan out. He isn't supposed to.

The most important thing for me is that Danny is not afraid to reach if he and Brad really like someone, and Brad is a valuable critic having been an NCAA coach and the guy that discovered Hayward. As long as we have these two guys, I will never judge nor worry about any front office decisions.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2018, 02:51:42 PM »

Offline footey

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

Please list the 10 guys from that draft that are better than him today.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2018, 02:55:09 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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He does Ok on 1-3 positions .   But bigs he seems to miss alot .

Tatum negated some of his worse picks Fab and JJJ  .

He chased Giannis all over Europe and then doesn't take him......SMH .....i just need multiple curse words here to express my disappointment in his judgement...

KO ......smh ......yuk.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2018, 02:56:19 PM »

Offline footey

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I think Danny is decent but not great at drafting.

He has done well so far when picking high (top 10) in the draft; no blown picks to my knowledge. 

He has hit/miss middle to late first round. 

His 2nd round picks seem better than most, although I don't have a good feel for just how well other teams do in this area. Guys like Powe, Davis, Gomes and even Semi seem to outplay their draft order. Would be curious to see how long his second round picks make/stick around compared to other teams'.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2018, 04:11:59 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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think you need a 3rd category of neutral i.e. guys that in a redraft would basically go right around where they were drafted.  And I disagree a bit with how you classify people.  I mean Marcus Smart was the 6th pick in the draft and there is no way he is a top 6 pick in a redraft (I don't even think he'd go in the top 10).  So yeah he has played fine, but if he didn't live up to his pick selection, I have a hard time calling him a hit.

That draft was bad.  Marcus would still be a top 10 pick if the draft was today.  The top 10 was.
Andrew Wiggans
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randal
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

Hits in the draft out of the top 10. 
Dario Saric at 12
Zach Lavine at 13
Jusuf Nurkic at 16
Gary Harris at 19
Rodney Hood at 23
Clint Capela at 25
Nikola Jokic at 41

If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

Eh, I don't like Nurkic at all. Empty stats.

And the Lakers the last couple years have been loathe to give Randle the minutes you'd think he'd get if he was so great. Something is going on there. Though he does seem like a competitor.

Let's not forget too that Smart still has upside. If he ever learns to shoot he will be a very valuable player with all-star potential.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2018, 04:22:21 PM »

Offline byennie

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If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.