Griz beat the Suns tonight.
So now the Griz are just a half game behind the Pels for the #9 pick.
Looks like the Griz are really trying to win every game so that their 2019 pick will go to Boston this year.
Is the #9 pick more valuable than a potential 2020 top 6 protected pick or 2021 unprotected pick?
Let me look into my crystal ball
Joking aside, getting the 9 pick would be either a great trade chip or would land us a pretty good player. Depending on which mock draft you read, the following talent could be available at no. 9, all of whom sound very intriguing.
-Bruno Fernando
-Jaxson Hayes
-Jarrett Culver
-Rui Hachimura
-Romeo Langford
100% the unprotected. Just look how hard it is to acquire a 1st in a deal these days, when they used to be thrown around in trades like footballs just a few years ago (see Larbrd's post on the Jeff Green transactional saga).
The mere possibility that the pick could land top 5, top 3, #1 makes it more valuable no matter what actually happens, and we'd have tons of time to trade it while it still has that potential and thus inherent value.
It might or it might not. I mean Boston has seen this first hand. Remember when the Nets picks were just going to be some late 1st's, didn't work out that way, however, remember when Boston was getting a top 5 pick from the Kings, without some lottery luck that isn't happening either. Teams have gotten better about recognizing the uncertainty and valuing that uncertainty accordingly.
For Memphis, having the pick conveys gives them a lot more future flexibility as they can go into full bore rebuilding and not worry about having to give up a pick, so if does convey that is what I'd expect them to do.
You’ll have to save that argument for someone else, I wanted to trade the sacto pick + Rozier + Morris this summer (specifically for Bulls pick / Wendell Carter cuz I didn’t think we could get Jaren Jackson Jr) and posted it on this site dozens of times. Go find it.
That’s why you deal the pick then, when it has the allure of #1 and is worth a ton more. Do you invest? This is asset management 101.
It is only a bigger asset if people think it will be a bigger asset. My point was, time and time again we are seeing picks not end up anywhere near where people thought they would. That uncertainty makes the value a lot less then it might ultimately end up.
Your point is 100% correct, I agree, but I think league transaction trends show that GMs are pie in the sky when it comes to draft picks.
The allure of possibly getting a top 3 pick without paying the true cost of a top 3 pick (which basically no one can afford) is too great.
You don’t agree?
Current picks with its draft position being known will almost always have more value than a future pick. The NFL has been showing this to be the case for years and years. Obviously I'm not talking about an end of the 1st round pick, but a pick in the top 10, even 9 or 10, I'd say has more value than a potentially higher pick 2 years in the future. The unknown in who will be in the future draft alone decreases the value of a pick significantly, as does the potential draft position, the delaying of the player for 2 years, etc. If you could guarantee a top 3 pick in 2021, then sure that would have more value than 9 this year, but you can't guarantee a future draft position. heck even if Memphis is the worst team in the league leading up to the 2021 draft, they might end up with the 5th pick with the new lottery rules.
Ya I disagree pretty strongly. So does Memphis, thats why they're fighting so hard to get the pick to convey. Sure, there's always some chance the pick ends up worse than you would like. But in a league where upside is King top 5 type talent is so much more value then a pick around 9-10 that GM's will bet on that upside, because even if the chance is relatively small the pay off is huge. Its the same reason why you almost never see people trade u from mid lottery to top 5. n top of that argent its pretty clear the direction Memphis is going right now, they are getting younger, getting worse and likely to see Mike Conley either eave or take a step back in the next year as he ages. They are in the Western conference where they simply arent getting into the playoffs the next two years. Best ase, top 5 pick. Worst case, 12-14 in two years. Given that lack of high end talent and depth in this draft at the 9-12 spots there's really no downside here.
The reason Memphis disagrees and wants to have next year's pick is because they have the ability to completely blow up their team this off season. They can control just how bad those future picks are simply by blowing up the team completely.
If the pick doesn't convey this year, there is the chance they don't blow it up and do everything to win to get the pick to convey post pick#6 next year.
Memphis will control where this pick ends up, so of course, they agree next year's pick is more valuable because if they control it and the following year's pick without attachments they can tear this team down to nothing and reap the benefits of a top 5 pick the next two year's.
You have a good argument. I think many GMs see things your way, others Moranis'. But I wouldn't use Memphis as an example they agree with either of you. Memphis has it's own agenda that has nothing to do with the value of future picks versus current picks.
Memphis clearly values getting top five picks in the next two drafts while giving up a #9 pick this year over any other scenario and their actions don't involve agreeing with either of you. They want to give up as little as possible while gaining the ability to start their multi-year tank with fetters on none of their picks they control.
Memphis wants to stack the deck for getting possible #1 picks in 2020 and 2021 by giving up a #9 this year because they can blow it up this offseason. They want multiple #1 picks. All their actions will be based around trying to maximize their two picks in the next 3 years while minimizing the pick they have to give Boston.