What does our roster look like next year?

[Somebody]

C's roster after the trade:

Smart - Wanamaker - Waters
Brown - Langford - Edwards
Hayward - Semi - (Nets pick)
Tatum - Theis - G. Williams
Simmons - Kanter - Timelord

Unlimited defensive potential in the starting lineup! I bet we'd have the best defense in the league.

That’s a pretty cool roster. High-octane offense, too. The 4/5 pnr is already a feature of Boston’s attack, but this gives it a new twist.

The Analytics crowd would love the hypermodern ‘five wing’ lineups.

Your plan also solves the problem of the excess draft picks, and you get younger.

Dumping Kemba like this is probably not great for relations with agents and potential free agents. Chemistry/leadership could take a hit by replacing a gregarious connector with a gloomy introvert. After the snafu with Kyrie, I suspect that Danny Ainge would hesitate before pulling the trigger on this one.

Smart would have to guard quicker players more often. You lose some speed.

Good thinking, really interesting idea.

I'm torn about it. I think Kemba's an ideal complementary star PG - he doesn't need to dominate the ball to be effective on offence due to his off ball movement and shooting, but on the other hand that 5 wing lineup is tantalising on the defensive end of the court.

[bucknersrevenge]

There's a new trade suggestion going on around the webs...

Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson and Mike Scott for Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, a few picks

You mean anti-Celtics communities? That trade is horrendous for us.

I wouldn't call that horrendous.  It would be an interesting Celtics lineup and would make Simmons a PF and move Tatum back to his more natural SF spot.  And which I think Simmons at PF is intriguing, I'm not sure I would want to see if it would work on the C's, but if it did it would be such a match-up nightmare for opposing teams having a PF with Simmons ball skills.  It would also ease some of the future uncertainty regarding the cap.

Just for fun, this would be the C's lineup post that trade.

PG - Walker, Wanamaker, Edwards, Waters
SG - Richardson, Smart
SF - Tatum, Langford, Ojeleye
PF - Simmons, Scott, G. Williams
C - Theis, Kanter, R. Williams

If Simmons actually worked as a PF and well with Tatum at SF, I think that team could be very interesting (and that duo would have a chance to be an all time great duo), and could certainly win the title if it came together well.  Probably could use a stretch center to allow Simmons more free reign in the paint, but I think that team would have real championship potential if it came together well.

I would, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are more valuable than Simmons, Richardson and Scott. That's not even factoring in us sending draft capital lol.

And I think that trade would actually lower our ceiling, getting a point forward who can't really shoot or lead a half court offence (think a homeless man's Draymond/Giannis hybrid) and a 3 and D wing in Richardson (albeit quite good with some extra passing skills) is not enough to make up us for losing a strong wing creator in Hayward and a nice two way wing in Brown.

Simmons is the best player in that trade and he is signed long term.  And I'm not the only one that thinks Simmons is the best player in that trade as the coaches selected him over both Brown and Hayward for the all star team this year.  Also, I don't think Boston is keeping Hayward past the next season as it doesn't work well financially so he is a 1 year player as I see it, while Richardson would be much cheaper to keep past next season so there is a far greater likelihood he sticks around without destroying the financials of the team.  I don't put much stock in 27 or 30, and assumed that would be the draft capital.  Frankly, I don't think Boston keeps either of those picks anyway as there just isn't room on the roster for 2 more late 1st round picks. 

Again, I'm not sure Simmons at PF will work, but if it does I think Boston would raise its ceiling in that trade, especially as I don't think Hayward sticks around for much longer (it just doesn't work financially).

No, Simmons is not. And being an All-Star =/= being more valuable to us - that is the mother of all lazy analysis. So many All-Stars who I wouldn’t trade those two for. Brown is probably an All-Star with no injuries - Hayward would be close too

Simmons is the best player in that trade.  He also has the biggest upside.  He is the best rebounder and passer by wide margins.  He is also the most efficient scorer of the group (obviously limited range, but still has a TS% at around 61% which is better than Brown or Hayward).  Simmons is a comparable defender to Brown, both are much better than Hayward on that end.  His WS, VORP, BMP, ORTG, DRTG, etc. are all better than either Brown or Hayward.  Not to mention he is the most physically gifted given his size, athleticism, and skillset.  I get why this board dumps on all things Philly, but Simmons is a special talent, neither Brown nor Hayward is.

I know that you love to bury Celtic talent in favour of opposition talent, especially rival talent, so I'm not really going to engage anymore. Simmons is not a special talent, unless by special you mean especially outdated. He has the worst range for any non-center in the league, and doesn't have the ability to be even close to a dominant scorer.

Brown is a better scorer and defender than him. Simmons is highly overrated on that end. Brown is also on a much nicer contract, and has shown an actual ability to play alongside our guys. I think Simmons would completely fail in that regard.

You also fall into the trap of overrating Simmons' passing. He is a really average half-court passer, and struggles to take a backseat as a passer. Further, his off-ball offence is really unimpressive. He relies on fast-breaks to get assists. So I don't even think he brings more passing value to the team compared to Hayward, who helps by being great off-ball and being a good shooter from every level. You also can't play Simmons late-game.

No need for insults.  Simmons is the best player in that trade.  You can ask non-Celtic fans and they will tell you that.  That is why you see places like bleacherreport making trades like the one being discussed.  That is why you see all of the major national sites ranking players that have Simmons ahead of Brown and Hayward.  That is why the coaches selected Simmons over both Brown and Hayward.  The objective statistical factors lead to that conclusion, as do the subjective ones.  Brown absolutely has a better contract than Simmons, but Hayward has the worst contract of the bunch (because either you pay him a ton or your lose him).  It isn't a crazy trade (without Langford and with a couple of lesser 1st's instead of the Memphis one, which is what I originally thought the proposal was).  It depends on what you think of Simmons at PF though, as that would be the key to that trade.  If you believe Simmons will perform well at PF, then that is the type of trade Ainge would at least look at making as it does give the C's another player that has the potential to be truly special (along with Tatum).   Brown is a nice solid wing, but he will never be a truly special player, so unless Tatum hits like a top 3 player in the world level, Boston will never really be a consistent contender with Brown as Tatum's top running mate.  Simmons gives Boston a higher ceiling, because he has a higher ceiling as a top 10ish player in the world type potential (Brown tops out at around top 20ish potential).

Yeah I love Brown but even suggesting that he's even in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively is laughable. Look, this deal will never happen but there's no doubt that Simmons would be tailor-made for Brad's read-and-react offense. Brad's system offers athletic players like Simmons the movement and space that they need to excel. The reason Simmons is a depressed asset in Philly in the halfcourt is because they don't have enough shooters and Simmons doesn't have the space to drive because Embiid clogs the lane. Everything Moranis said earlier. The problem with Simmons right now is not that he's a bad shooter. It's that he won't shoot at all. Brad would tap into this kid in a way nobody has here. Even if he didn't shoot much, he'd have so many shooters in Boston capable of playing off his penetration off those Wing PnRs, the actions off those Horns sets and when Brad really wants to mess with teams heads, let Simmons take turns running PnR with Walker who would get the most easy looks of his career. I call BS that Simmons can't play without the ball. In fact, I think he would look to be a more aggressive scorer if he had guys that could set him up. I blame Brett Brown for so much of this. Simmons is an EXCELLENT cutter off the ball and a terrific finisher in the paint. The length on that team with Richardson (who has the attributes to be just as good defensively in Brad's system; again so much of this is coaching) with Smart off the bench. The versatility, length, and athleticism in that group would be scary. But bottomline: this is a talent league and Simmons is the best talent in that deal hands down. You get him and you don't think twice.

[Somebody]

Yeah I love Brown but even suggesting that he's even in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively is laughable. Look, this deal will never happen but there's no doubt that Simmons would be tailor-made for Brad's read-and-react offense. Brad's system offers athletic players like Simmons the movement and space that they need to excel. The reason Simmons is a depressed asset in Philly in the halfcourt is because they don't have enough shooters and Simmons doesn't have the space to drive because Embiid clogs the lane. Everything Moranis said earlier. The problem with Simmons right now is not that he's a bad shooter. It's that he won't shoot at all. Brad would tap into this kid in a way nobody has here. Even if he didn't shoot much, he'd have so many shooters in Boston capable of playing off his penetration off those Wing PnRs, the actions off those Horns sets and when Brad really wants to mess with teams heads, let Simmons take turns running PnR with Walker who would get the most easy looks of his career. I call BS that Simmons can't play without the ball. In fact, I think he would look to be a more aggressive scorer if he had guys that could set him up. I blame Brett Brown for so much of this. Simmons is an EXCELLENT cutter off the ball and a terrific finisher in the paint. The length on that team with Richardson (who has the attributes to be just as good defensively in Brad's system; again so much of this is coaching) with Smart off the bench. The versatility, length, and athleticism in that group would be scary. But bottomline: this is a talent league and Simmons is the best talent in that deal hands down. You get him and you don't think twice.

And I love Simmons' skillset, but trying to suggest that he's in a different stratosphere compared to Brown is laughable. Simmons cannot run a half court offence no matter how much you're enamoured with the concept of a 6'10 PG, it was the main reason why Philly took the ball out of his hands and gave it to Butler come playoff time last season, trying to run PnRs with him as anything other than the roll man will not result in high efficiency offence. I've been on record saying that he's a really good off ball player due to his cutting and ability to finish, but being a homeless man's Draymond Green (sacrificing playmaking and defence for finishing and cutting) doesn't make a player much more talented than Jaylen Brown, if any. His best role on a good offence is as a garbage man who camps in the dunker's spot/short corner 24/7 and spams picks for ballhandlers to roll to the basket where his size, athleticism and ability to pass on the move can be maximised.

[jambr380]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

[Somebody]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

[bucknersrevenge]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

[gouki88]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

If he’d shown any hint of a willingness to not be the primary ball-handler all the time then maybe, but he hasn’t. Kemba & Tatum are both more deserving of having the ball in their hands than Simmons because simply they’re better, and Simmons doesn’t seem to be cool with being anything but the primary guy

[Monkhouse]

There are two players I think who could be MVP's if they just fixed up their shot selection, improved their shot, and was more of a leader.

Those two are Simmons and Westbrook.

Of course, Westbrook won MVP, but I always felt like if he could take better shots, and shoot better from 3, he'd be a top 10 player every year.

Simmons is the same, and he also plays similar to Westbrook. I think he's infinitely more talented/gifted than Brown, but I think Brown's more skilled if that makes sense. Simmons is also the ideal wing forward in today's NBA, and if he could actually have some modicum of shooting, he'd be the ideal small ball 5 of the future.
 
That being said, I don't foresee our roster changing that much.

I would like us to go after some more BPA wings. I think this draft will have sleeper draft players that can drastically outperform past their expectations in Bey, Nesmith, Tillman, etc.

My goal personally is:

Draft Wanamaker's replacement
Be more open minded to euro-stash bigs -  we have 4 draft picks
Look at Tillman, Bey, Nesmith, Patrick Williams are my binkies currently

I'd like to bring back Baynes if possible?

[bucknersrevenge]

There are two players I think who could be MVP's if they just fixed up their shot selection, improved their shot, and was more of a leader.

Those two are Simmons and Westbrook.

Of course, Westbrook won MVP, but I always felt like if he could take better shots, and shoot better from 3, he'd be a top 10 player every year.

Simmons is the same, and he also plays similar to Westbrook. I think he's infinitely more talented/gifted than Brown, but I think Brown's more skilled if that makes sense. Simmons is also the ideal wing forward in today's NBA, and if he could actually have some modicum of shooting, he'd be the ideal small ball 5 of the future.
 
That being said, I don't foresee our roster changing that much.

I would like us to go after some more BPA wings. I think this draft will have sleeper draft players that can drastically outperform past their expectations in Bey, Nesmith, Tillman, etc.

My goal personally is:

Draft Wanamaker's replacement
Be more open minded to euro-stash bigs -  we have 4 draft picks
Look at Tillman, Bey, Nesmith, Patrick Williams are my binkies currently

I'd like to bring back Baynes if possible?

Simmons and Westbrook are NOT the same. Westbrook is an erratic shooter. Simmons is a RELUCTANT shooter. Big difference. We have no idea how bad or good Simmons actually is at shooting from distance because he simply refuses to do so. Simmons is a coward, not a bad shooter. Unlike Westbrook, I think Simmons struggles greatly with confidence in his own game. I think Stevens works wonders at instilling guys with the confidence to do what they do best, put them in positions to succeed and watch them step beyond their own comfort zone. We've seen it time and time again with Stevens maximizing the talents of guys that other teams thought just had a certain plateau.

Again, this is never going to happen, but if we ever got Simmons in Boston, it would take Stevens a max 1 year to get him shooting comfortably from 3. Because that's just what Brad does.

[Somebody]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

His situational value in certain setups is irrelevant - I've been talking about their "goodness" (basically the lift they provide to an average strength team by attempting to take a number of setups into account with varying degrees of fit, which is much better than just comparing situational value: players produce different value in different situations). Simmons is not that much better than Brown in that regard and doesn't really have much more room to grow, while Brown has the potential to jump up at least a couple of tiers.

[bucknersrevenge]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

If he’d shown any hint of a willingness to not be the primary ball-handler all the time then maybe, but he hasn’t. Kemba & Tatum are both more deserving of having the ball in their hands than Simmons because simply they’re better, and Simmons doesn’t seem to be cool with being anything but the primary guy

What do you mean willingness?? Brown told him when they drafted him that they wanted him to be their full-time point guard. Simmons didn't ask for that but he's not gonna turn down having the ball in his hands. This was the failure of coaching. If they had kept ballhandlers in their system capable of making plays around him and for him, I suspect he'd give up some of those duties to make plays as a finisher off the ball too. I think you disregard how complicit Brown is in the failures of Simmons development as a young player. I think everything Simmons has accomplished is in spite of the coaching he's received.

[bucknersrevenge]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

His situational value in certain setups is irrelevant - I've been talking about their "goodness" (basically the lift they provide to an average strength team by attempting to take a number of setups into account with varying degrees of fit, which is much better than just comparing situational value: players produce different value in different situations). Simmons is not that much better than Brown in that regard and doesn't really have much more room to grow, while Brown has the potential to jump up at least a couple of tiers.

I'm not talking situational value, I'm talking player development. And that means putting players in systems that accentuate their skills like Brad has done for Brown and like Brett Brown has not done for Simmons. Sure Jaylen could jump a couple of tiers but Simmons is on a higher tier than him anyway with completely undeveloped and unutilized skills. Simmons could be a Top 10 player in the game and I just can't say that about Jaylen, as much as I love him.

[bellerephon]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

His situational value in certain setups is irrelevant - I've been talking about their "goodness" (basically the lift they provide to an average strength team by attempting to take a number of setups into account with varying degrees of fit, which is much better than just comparing situational value: players produce different value in different situations). Simmons is not that much better than Brown in that regard and doesn't really have much more room to grow, while Brown has the potential to jump up at least a couple of tiers.

I'm not talking situational value, I'm talking player development. And that means putting players in systems that accentuate their skills like Brad has done for Brown and like Brett Brown has not done for Simmons. Sure Jaylen could jump a couple of tiers but Simmons is on a higher tier than him anyway with completely undeveloped and unutilized skills. Simmons could be a Top 10 player in the game and I just can't say that about Jaylen, as much as I love him.

Simmons would be a top ten player if he could shoot 33% from three and 70% from the free throw line, two things which do not seem like they could ever happen.

[Somebody]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

His situational value in certain setups is irrelevant - I've been talking about their "goodness" (basically the lift they provide to an average strength team by attempting to take a number of setups into account with varying degrees of fit, which is much better than just comparing situational value: players produce different value in different situations). Simmons is not that much better than Brown in that regard and doesn't really have much more room to grow, while Brown has the potential to jump up at least a couple of tiers.

I'm not talking situational value, I'm talking player development. And that means putting players in systems that accentuate their skills like Brad has done for Brown and like Brett Brown has not done for Simmons. Sure Jaylen could jump a couple of tiers but Simmons is on a higher tier than him anyway with completely undeveloped and unutilized skills. Simmons could be a Top 10 player in the game and I just can't say that about Jaylen, as much as I love him.

Simmons would be a top ten player if he could shoot 33% from three and 70% from the free throw line, two things which do not seem like they could ever happen.

^^^throw in being able to run pick and rolls like an offensive maestro lol.

[bucknersrevenge]

Buckner didn't say that Brown wasn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons overall (although that's implied by the rest of his post); he actually said that Brown isn't in the same stratosphere as Simmons defensively - which is perplexing to say the least.

I can buy the argument that Simmons is [currently] a better basketball player than Brown, but defense is Brown's calling card and that is never going away.

Oh I missed it. I actually agree with him - I think the bulk of Simmons' impact comes from defence, while Brown is more balanced on both sides of the court. But I absolutely disagree with the opinion that Simmons is more talented than Brown: while Simmons is slightly better right now (top 30ish player compared to top 40 player), he's close to his ceiling while Brown can improve much more with incremental improvements to his game.

Yeah I disagree. Philadelphia doesn't even use Simmons correctly in their system. He won't shoot from the perimeter. He's barely scratching the surface of how good he could be if those two things weren't the case. In a more open read and react free-flowing system like ours vs the offense based on dumping the ball into a big man and just standing around Simmons' talents could be supported instead of his weaknnesses exposed by the system.

His situational value in certain setups is irrelevant - I've been talking about their "goodness" (basically the lift they provide to an average strength team by attempting to take a number of setups into account with varying degrees of fit, which is much better than just comparing situational value: players produce different value in different situations). Simmons is not that much better than Brown in that regard and doesn't really have much more room to grow, while Brown has the potential to jump up at least a couple of tiers.

I'm not talking situational value, I'm talking player development. And that means putting players in systems that accentuate their skills like Brad has done for Brown and like Brett Brown has not done for Simmons. Sure Jaylen could jump a couple of tiers but Simmons is on a higher tier than him anyway with completely undeveloped and unutilized skills. Simmons could be a Top 10 player in the game and I just can't say that about Jaylen, as much as I love him.

Simmons would be a top ten player if he could shoot 33% from three and 70% from the free throw line, two things which do not seem like they could ever happen.

Well if you wanna get technical, he's shooting 33% from 3 now so you're flat out wrong. As for the FT % guys really need to work with him on his shot, and I really think he has a confidence issue. But he's 23 years old and this is just his 3rd season. There's nowhere near enough evidence to make your assessment about his future credible. But I think he's gonna have to leave Philly to get there.