2020 Red Sox Thread

[hwangjini_1]

A pathetic season. Sale ends the season on the injured list, but I don't think injuries were his problem most of the season—he just plain stunk. Price had a good first half but then he went downhill. Porcello was downright terrible, perhaps the worst starter in the majors this season according to advanced stats, and hopefully the Sox don't re-sign him. E-Rod was better than I expected, so hopefully that continues next year.

Overall, I'm not confident that the pitching works out next season. Sale's best days may very well be behind him—he'll be 31 at the start of next season, has been injured the last couple seasons, and has always been a hard thrower despite being of slight build, which doesn't bode well for his body holding up. Price is now 34. Eovaldi has an extensive injury history. I mean, I think a lot of things will have to break correctly, and the odds of that happening are low.

Not to mention that even if they keep Mookie and JD returns, a decent chunk of the order is awful and needs to be addressed—Bradley is just not a good hitter, Benintendi isn't panning out, Leon is terrible, Holt hits for average but little else. A Betts/Bogaerts/Devers/Martinez core is a great foundation, but they'll need more than that to compete at a high level.

what you wrote above is not really accurate. it is more complex than stated.

in terms of mlb teams, the red sox are this season on offense:
- 4th in runs scored
- 1st in doubles
- 10th in HR
- 4th in batting average
- 5th in OPS

no team does this if a "decent chunk" of the batting order sucks eggs.

next - JBJ's offense. his batting average is poor, but in this day and age of advanced stats, we can know more about him than just that. his OBP = .317 and his OPS = .733. these place JBJ at 7th and 8th place among all center fielders in the mlb. oh, and let's not forget his 20 HR so far this year as well. that is good for 9th among CFers.

given JBJ's stellar defense in an important position these are very respectable offensive stats.

SoSH also had a prolonged discussion about how JBJ may be the most schizophrenic batter in the majors. he regularly has enormous periods of super-suck followed by periods of "babe ruth is reincarnated." this actually increases his value on offense.

the question SoSH posed was - which is better for team? a player who hits .000 for 1/2 of a season and .500 for the second 1/2, leading to a .250 BA for the season? OR...a player who gets one hit a game every game, leading to a .250 BA for the season.

it seems that being hot and driving in a boat load of runs a few times benefits a team more than a steady 1-hit production since the former increases the odds of winning more games. you can search SoSH for the discussion.

BROCKSTAR? his OPS is .793 this season. this is clearly due to more than simple batting average...oh, and how many positions does he play which allows Cora to make swaps on defense?

Leon, yeah, he sucks. but the difference between him and other teams' crappy back up catchers is not so great as to make a difference this year. plus he has batted in only 60 games this year. he is not pulling the team down day in and day out. and his sucky offense is somewhat compensated by his very good defense.

a frequently used RS line ups this year contained some combinations of:
mookie (OPS .910)
devers (OPS .911)
xander (OPS .933)
JD martinez (OPS .936)
vazquez (OPS .780)
mitch moreland (OPS .820)
benintendi (OPS .781)
JBJ (OPS .733)
BROCKSTAR (OPS .793)

for MLB, an OPS of .700 to .766 is average. of the above players, everyone but JBJ would be considered above average.

finally, how many teams put together a lineup that is from top to bottom filled with above average batters for their position - both in the line up and by fielding position? the sox offense was not really the major problem this year.

having your top three projected pitchers all stink, get injured, and stink some more hurt a lot. and a bad pullpen had a lot more to do with the poor season than their offense.

let's look at the trio of price, porcello, and sale in a simple way, wins.

2018, they combined for 45 wins among them.
2019, they combined for 26 wins among them. a difference of 19 games.

let me perform an unfair and overly simplistic calculation here. the sox so far have won 81 games. if we could magically add in those "missing" 19 games, the sox sit at 100 wins, two back of the first place yankees.

yes, it is too simple to simply use simple math and add 19 games. but the point is that it seems more likely that the pitching is the major culprit this year, not the hitting.

one final note on the pitching. in 2018 the Sox team ERA was 3.75, 8th in the majors. in 2019 the team ERA was 4.63, 19th in the majors. almost a run a game worse.

[jambr380]

It's almost inconceivable to think of how bad the Sox were this year compared to last year...but I don't care. We won the WS last year and nobody else did. I sure hope Sale can come back around and we can pick up a couple of decent arms; but, it's not like we are destined for failure year in and year out like so many other ML teams. In the ridiculous world of the MLB where teams spend vastly different amounts of money to build a team, the Sox will always at least have a decent chance at fielding a contender.

Re-group, re-tool, and go for it again next year!

EDIT: And at least the Sox didn't give Kimbrel the 3yr/$43M contract the Cubs did. No closer is better than a 6.5+ ERA one.

[PhoSita]

John Tomase
@jtomase
Big takeaway from owners speaking - Henry and Werner want to get under $208M tax threshold.

Is there any way to accomplish this without losing Betts (at least) and the Red Sox being bad for at least a couple years?

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

John Tomase
@jtomase
Big takeaway from owners speaking - Henry and Werner want to get under $208M tax threshold.

Is there any way to accomplish this without losing Betts (at least) and the Red Sox being bad for at least a couple years?

I wish I knew the answer to your question. But I suspect that the answer is no.

[Phantom255x]

John Tomase
@jtomase
Big takeaway from owners speaking - Henry and Werner want to get under $208M tax threshold.

Is there any way to accomplish this without losing Betts (at least) and the Red Sox being bad for at least a couple years?

It's possible, but unlikely.

One way would be for JD Martinez to opt-out and then the Red Sox let him walk. Then we'd be under the 208M, but that'd also assume we'd let every other FA walk and make no significant additions.

As it stands, once you factor in all the players that come off the payroll (Sandoval, Porcello, etc.) + arbitration raises for current players + Sale and Bogaerts extensions kicking in... then the Sox payroll will be between 220-225M for 2020. We have about 50-60M coming off the books, but about half of that gets offset by the arbitration raises and extensions to a few of our current guys.

So if JD opts out, then it drops to about 200-205M, though again, it would likely mean not making any additions since doing so would get us back above the 208M threshold easily.

My guess is, 1 (or both) of JD and Betts leave this winter, and even guys like JBJ might be dangled in trades (JBJ for example could get 10M in arbitration and the team may look to cut costs there). And I also assume the Sox will let many FA's go, like Moreland, Porcello, etc.

I really hope we keep Brock, but I think there's a chance he leaves this winter too because of this 

We may be able to avoid being bad, but it might also be a year or two of being sort of just middle-of-the-pack. At best, a playoff team that is an early exit in October probably, at least in 2020 IMO. That is, unless everyone has career years like 2018 or even 2013, but you can't just predict that. Also, our rotation is proving to be extremely injury-prone, which is not ideal going forward.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

John Tomase
@jtomase
Big takeaway from owners speaking - Henry and Werner want to get under $208M tax threshold.

Is there any way to accomplish this without losing Betts (at least) and the Red Sox being bad for at least a couple years?

It's possible, but unlikely.

One way would be for JD Martinez to opt-out and then the Red Sox let him walk. Then we'd be under the 208M, but that'd also assume we'd let every other FA walk and make no significant additions.

As it stands, once you factor in all the players that come off the payroll (Sandoval, Porcello, etc.) + arbitration raises for current players + Sale and Bogaerts extensions kicking in... then the Sox payroll will be between 220-225M for 2020. We have about 50-60M coming off the books, but about half of that gets offset by the arbitration raises and extensions to a few of our current guys.

So if JD opts out, then it drops to about 200-205M, though again, it would likely mean not making any additions since doing so would get us back above the 208M threshold easily.

My guess is, 1 (or both) of JD and Betts leave this winter, and even guys like JBJ might be dangled in trades (JBJ for example could get 10M in arbitration and the team may look to cut costs there). And I also assume the Sox will let many FA's go, like Moreland, Porcello, etc.

I really hope we keep Brock, but I think there's a chance he leaves this winter too because of this 

We may be able to avoid being bad, but it might also be a year or two of being sort of just middle-of-the-pack. At best, a playoff team that is an early exit in October probably, at least in 2020 IMO. That is, unless everyone has career years like 2018 or even 2013, but you can't just predict that. Also, our rotation is proving to be extremely injury-prone, which is not ideal going forward.

Yeah, I think next season's gonna be worse than this one. The Sox are paying a gazillion dollars for a pitching top 3 that is mostly injured or ineffective, they have no closer (and yes, they need one), they have way too many mediocre-to-useless relievers, almost no good pitching in the pipeline, and the owners want to cut costs. Should be a real joy to watch the next couple of seasons.

[Roy H.]

Screw John Henry if he’s going to blow the team up over $12 million or so.!

[gpap]

Screw John Henry if he’s going to blow the team up over $12 million or so.!

I agree it sucks. Though I'm hardly sympathetic when it comes to the wallets of the owners, the benefit of trimming the payroll and getting below the $208 mil luxury tax threshold is you reset your penalties.

So, I think the way it works is if the Sox reset their payroll in 2020, they won't be penalized nearly as much if they go over the luxury tax in 2021. Last year, they went over the 3rd and highest threshold which was $247 and this year the payroll hit $241 (and missing the playoffs, which is embarrassing.)

So, in one sense I get the reasoning. BUT, it should never come at the expense of winning. If they're going to trim payroll, they should also lower ticket prices and concessions at Fenway, so a beer doesn't cost $11.50.

[gpap]

John Tomase
@jtomase
Big takeaway from owners speaking - Henry and Werner want to get under $208M tax threshold.

Is there any way to accomplish this without losing Betts (at least) and the Red Sox being bad for at least a couple years?

It's possible, but unlikely.

One way would be for JD Martinez to opt-out and then the Red Sox let him walk. Then we'd be under the 208M, but that'd also assume we'd let every other FA walk and make no significant additions.

As it stands, once you factor in all the players that come off the payroll (Sandoval, Porcello, etc.) + arbitration raises for current players + Sale and Bogaerts extensions kicking in... then the Sox payroll will be between 220-225M for 2020. We have about 50-60M coming off the books, but about half of that gets offset by the arbitration raises and extensions to a few of our current guys.

So if JD opts out, then it drops to about 200-205M, though again, it would likely mean not making any additions since doing so would get us back above the 208M threshold easily.

My guess is, 1 (or both) of JD and Betts leave this winter, and even guys like JBJ might be dangled in trades (JBJ for example could get 10M in arbitration and the team may look to cut costs there). And I also assume the Sox will let many FA's go, like Moreland, Porcello, etc.

I really hope we keep Brock, but I think there's a chance he leaves this winter too because of this 

We may be able to avoid being bad, but it might also be a year or two of being sort of just middle-of-the-pack. At best, a playoff team that is an early exit in October probably, at least in 2020 IMO. That is, unless everyone has career years like 2018 or even 2013, but you can't just predict that. Also, our rotation is proving to be extremely injury-prone, which is not ideal going forward.

Yeah, I think next season's gonna be worse than this one. The Sox are paying a gazillion dollars for a pitching top 3 that is mostly injured or ineffective, they have no closer (and yes, they need one), they have way too many mediocre-to-useless relievers, almost no good pitching in the pipeline, and the owners want to cut costs. Should be a real joy to watch the next couple of seasons.

I still think the Sox will remain competitive, but I also think there's going to be alot of changes this offseason.

I think Mookie and Jackie will be traded as both guys are hitting free agency in 2021. I also think JD DOES opt out. I look for the Sox to target guys on very low salaries in trades and free agency (ala guys that are on the roster now like Chris Owings and Gorkys Hernandez.)

However, I do also see a couple modest free agent signings to keep the team competitive while trimming payroll (think Zack Wheeler, Jose Abreu, Jonathan Schoop, Avisail Garcia, etc.) Not the flashiest of names, but good enough.

I do also believe Moreland and Holt will be gone as well. I also think Pedroia will retire and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Sale needs some type of surgery on his elbow and could miss a good chunk of 2020. Between his shoulder last year and elbow this year, it's clear he needs some type of treatment more effective than just a simple shot.

[PhoSita]

Sources: #Dodgers discussing Mookie Betts with the #RedSox at least as much as they are Francisco Lindor with the #Indians. Boston could combine Betts and Price in a deal that nets the Red Sox a prospect and salary relief.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1212853673891696642



Sheesh, just sell the team.


Any owner that is OK trading a MVP caliber player in his prime for "salary relief" should be immediately forced to sell the team.

[celticsclay]

Sources: #Dodgers discussing Mookie Betts with the #RedSox at least as much as they are Francisco Lindor with the #Indians. Boston could combine Betts and Price in a deal that nets the Red Sox a prospect and salary relief.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1212853673891696642



Sheesh, just sell the team.


Any owner that is OK trading a MVP caliber player in his prime for "salary relief" should be immediately forced to sell the team.

Yeah I just don't understand this unless the team has been given indication that Mookie will never sign here after his contract ends.

[nickagneta]

Sources: #Dodgers discussing Mookie Betts with the #RedSox at least as much as they are Francisco Lindor with the #Indians. Boston could combine Betts and Price in a deal that nets the Red Sox a prospect and salary relief.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1212853673891696642



Sheesh, just sell the team.


Any owner that is OK trading a MVP caliber player in his prime for "salary relief" should be immediately forced to sell the team.

Yeah I just don't understand this unless the team has been given indication that Mookie will never sign here after his contract ends.

Mookie has already made it clear he is going to free agency and there would be no extension. At this point, the Red Sox would have to have almost 100% confidence they can re-sign Mookie, even if he goes to free agency, meaning they would be willing to outbid anyone, to not be at least exploring the possibility of moving Mookie now, or setting things up for trading him at the deadline.

Thing is, I don't think the Red Sox have that 100% confidence they can re-sign Betts and I don't think they want to spend the $375 million deal Betts is reportedly looking for.

[celticsclay]

Sources: #Dodgers discussing Mookie Betts with the #RedSox at least as much as they are Francisco Lindor with the #Indians. Boston could combine Betts and Price in a deal that nets the Red Sox a prospect and salary relief.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1212853673891696642



Sheesh, just sell the team.


Any owner that is OK trading a MVP caliber player in his prime for "salary relief" should be immediately forced to sell the team.

Yeah I just don't understand this unless the team has been given indication that Mookie will never sign here after his contract ends.

Mookie has already made it clear he is going to free agency and there would be no extension. At this point, the Red Sox would have to have almost 100% confidence they can re-sign Mookie, even if he goes to free agency, meaning they would be willing to outbid anyone, to not be at least exploring the possibility of moving Mookie now, or setting things up for trading him at the deadline.

Thing is, I don't think the Red Sox have that 100% confidence they can re-sign Betts and I don't think they want to spend the $375 million deal Betts is reportedly looking for.

I don't know how they could better spend the money.

[BringToughnessBack]

I don't want to lose him either. Special top 5 player in his prime. On the flip side, how many 200m plus contracts have worked out over the years? For that type of contract, I am thinking a minimum of 2 WS wins and consistent star numbers and avoiding big injuries.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Sources: #Dodgers discussing Mookie Betts with the #RedSox at least as much as they are Francisco Lindor with the #Indians. Boston could combine Betts and Price in a deal that nets the Red Sox a prospect and salary relief.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1212853673891696642



Sheesh, just sell the team.


Any owner that is OK trading a MVP caliber player in his prime for "salary relief" should be immediately forced to sell the team.

What an awful scenario in that tweet—trade one of the top 5 players and all you get in return is A prospect and salary relief? Ridiculous. Better than losing him for nothing in free agency, but good grief, that would still be horrible. You should be able to get a good haul for a player like Mookie. I hate the idea of teams paying $300M+ for any player, but at least Mookie is still only 27 and should have quite a few great seasons left.