Mandatory Gordon Hayward trade (your ideas)

[td450]

I don't have a clear idea of how to do this, but of the four stars, it seems pretty clear to me that Kemba is the most dispensable, especially if Ainge can do his job in the upcoming draft and trade up to get Halliburton. Hayward is a better player and better fit for this team than Kemba is.

[Roy H.]

I don't have a clear idea of how to do this, but of the four stars, it seems pretty clear to me that Kemba is the most dispensable, especially if Ainge can do his job in the upcoming draft and trade up to get Halliburton. Hayward is a better player and better fit for this team than Kemba is.

I don’t want to lose anyone, but I definitely haven’t seen Kemba as dispensable, even in relative terms.  He’s been our engine this series.

[CelticsPoetry]

I don't have a clear idea of how to do this, but of the four stars, it seems pretty clear to me that Kemba is the most dispensable, especially if Ainge can do his job in the upcoming draft and trade up to get Halliburton. Hayward is a better player and better fit for this team than Kemba is.

It's almost as if you havent watch these playoffs

[Donoghus]

I don't have a clear idea of how to do this, but of the four stars, it seems pretty clear to me that Kemba is the most dispensable, especially if Ainge can do his job in the upcoming draft and trade up to get Halliburton. Hayward is a better player and better fit for this team than Kemba is.

I don’t want to lose anyone, but I definitely haven’t seen Kemba as dispensable, even in relative terms.  He’s been our engine this series.

Absolutely.   Kemba's been this team's stabilizer.

[Roy H.]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

Yeah, I said $15-20 million was reasonable. I didn't say it was realistic, especially if Gordon has another year like this year.

And as for the repeater tax. They were a tax payer last season. They won't be this season. But next season if Gordon opts in and with Brown's deal kicking in they will assuredly be paying the tax. That means that the season I was discussing, if they let Hayward walk, they probably won't be a tax payer, which is why I said let him walk. But if they bring Hayward back, it most likely means they do become a repeater, which is what Jvalin and I are discussing.

2023 is a long way off.  We have until the last day of that season to get below the tax to avoid repeater penalties.  To me, it’s not a gigantic consideration right now.  For all we know, there will be a massive tax line bump in 2023, or tweaks to the CBA.

If you can retain Hayward you do so while he and Kemba are in their primes.  There’s no need to downgrade our talent over financial implications that may never apply.

[tstorey_97]

I appreciate the cap work here.

I have this concept that won't go away, thus I'll air it out here.

Payroll websites have the Hayward player (20/21) option at
$34,187,085

If all "remains the same" for the roster 2020/21 the total is

$142,448,000.........without the draft picks etc.

Of course, anything can be negotiated and Hayward could very easily agree to taking a lower price and an extension....to which I reply, why the heck would he do that? He owes the team nothing and he is a very valuable pickup for numerous teams.

I just don't see how he stays.
Walker-Tatum-Brown-Smart are the Celtics, everybody else has to fit around their salaries and the process is underway with the roster now.

Does Ainge see Hayward as the "piece" that gets the next title? He might, but, from past behavior? Ainge will not keep Hayward and Hayward and his agent know this and have known it for a year or two.

Look at the $tat line on Kemba Walker - $32M - $34M- $36M - $37M

When they signed Walker that was the end of the Hayward era in Boston and all involved knew it.

[td450]

I don't have a clear idea of how to do this, but of the four stars, it seems pretty clear to me that Kemba is the most dispensable, especially if Ainge can do his job in the upcoming draft and trade up to get Halliburton. Hayward is a better player and better fit for this team than Kemba is.

I don’t want to lose anyone, but I definitely haven’t seen Kemba as dispensable, even in relative terms.  He’s been our engine this series.

Absolutely.   Kemba's been this team's stabilizer.

I really like Kemba too, but what matters is the team's trajectory going forward, not what they need now. This is all about Tatum and Brown's role getting bigger going forward and we won't be looking for any stabilizers for them soon enough.  I'd rather have Hayward and play Smart and find another big point guard who is better at passing and defense. I'm picking a 30 year old multiskilled 6'8 wing over a 30 year old small point guard with average defensive skills 100 out of 100 times.

[keevsnick]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

Yeah, I said $15-20 million was reasonable. I didn't say it was realistic, especially if Gordon has another year like this year.

And as for the repeater tax. They were a tax payer last season. They won't be this season. But next season if Gordon opts in and with Brown's deal kicking in they will assuredly be paying the tax. That means that the season I was discussing, if they let Hayward walk, they probably won't be a tax payer, which is why I said let him walk. But if they bring Hayward back, it most likely means they do become a repeater, which is what Jvalin and I are discussing.

2023 is a long way off.  We have until the last day of that season to get below the tax to avoid repeater penalties.  To me, it’s not a gigantic consideration right now.  For all we know, there will be a massive tax line bump in 2023, or tweaks to the CBA.

If you can retain Hayward you do so while he and Kemba are in their primes.  There’s no need to downgrade our talent over financial implications that may never apply.

I mean the repeater tax may be a ways off, but even without repeater tax the C's will likely be paying a somewhat hefty tax bill. Now granted its not my money, and maybe the C's management wont have a problem with that. But if the c's make the NBA finals this year largely without Hayward and then are faced with the possibility of paying him 25 million a season+ 15 million in luxury tax payments (so total of 40 million) for a 4th option (before we ever get to repeater territory). Going forward I'm guessing its at least a question.

I think its also at least a question whether its better from a purely basketball standpoint to split what you'd be paying Hayward between 2-3 other guys. Because Hayward's chief value is somewhat in his play making on ball, and with two guys (Tatum/Kemba) who do it better maybe his ideal role isn't best utilized on this team. Don't get me wrong, it's always nice to have more ball handlers, but there are diminishing returns especially when Smart can run point and maybe even Jaylen takes on more play-making in time.

All that said the most likely outcome is probably Hayward opting out /resigning, but I don't think its by any means a slam dunk he stays past next year.

One thing to point out is the c's don't own their own building, which COULD make them a little less likely to go to want to absorb big tax penalties. But we just dont know.

[nickagneta]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

Yeah, I said $15-20 million was reasonable. I didn't say it was realistic, especially if Gordon has another year like this year.

And as for the repeater tax. They were a tax payer last season. They won't be this season. But next season if Gordon opts in and with Brown's deal kicking in they will assuredly be paying the tax. That means that the season I was discussing, if they let Hayward walk, they probably won't be a tax payer, which is why I said let him walk. But if they bring Hayward back, it most likely means they do become a repeater, which is what Jvalin and I are discussing.

2023 is a long way off.  We have until the last day of that season to get below the tax to avoid repeater penalties.  To me, it’s not a gigantic consideration right now.  For all we know, there will be a massive tax line bump in 2023, or tweaks to the CBA.

If you can retain Hayward you do so while he and Kemba are in their primes.  There’s no need to downgrade our talent over financial implications that may never apply.

Aren't we talking about the 2021-22 season?

2018-19 paid tax
2019-20 no tax
2020-21 pay tax
2021-22 pay repeater tax.

Isn't that the timeline?

Honestly, I could not care less if the team has to pay the tax or not. I am just looking at it from their perspective in the decision making as to whether to retain Hayward after 2020-21. Does re-signing him and putting them into a repeater situation have any affect in their decision making process?

[nickagneta]

I don't have a clear idea of how to do this, but of the four stars, it seems pretty clear to me that Kemba is the most dispensable, especially if Ainge can do his job in the upcoming draft and trade up to get Halliburton. Hayward is a better player and better fit for this team than Kemba is.

I don’t want to lose anyone, but I definitely haven’t seen Kemba as dispensable, even in relative terms.  He’s been our engine this series.

Absolutely.   Kemba's been this team's stabilizer.

Agree with you guys. I don't see Kemba as dispensable and not as dispensable as Hayward. Look what this current team is doing without Hayward. Meanwhile, Kemba has been a valuable stabilizing force and a great closer for this team in the playoffs.

[keevsnick]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

Yeah, I said $15-20 million was reasonable. I didn't say it was realistic, especially if Gordon has another year like this year.

And as for the repeater tax. They were a tax payer last season. They won't be this season. But next season if Gordon opts in and with Brown's deal kicking in they will assuredly be paying the tax. That means that the season I was discussing, if they let Hayward walk, they probably won't be a tax payer, which is why I said let him walk. But if they bring Hayward back, it most likely means they do become a repeater, which is what Jvalin and I are discussing.

2023 is a long way off.  We have until the last day of that season to get below the tax to avoid repeater penalties.  To me, it’s not a gigantic consideration right now.  For all we know, there will be a massive tax line bump in 2023, or tweaks to the CBA.

If you can retain Hayward you do so while he and Kemba are in their primes.  There’s no need to downgrade our talent over financial implications that may never apply.

Aren't we talking about the 2021-22 season?

2018-19 paid tax
2019-20 no tax
2020-21 pay tax
2021-22 pay repeater tax.

Isn't that the timeline?

Honestly, I could not care less if the team has to pay the tax or not. I am just looking at it from their perspective in the decision making as to whether to retain Hayward after 2020-21. Does re-signing him and putting them into a repeater situation have any affect in their decision making process?

I believe that tax applies in the season AFTER you've paid 3 of the previous 4 years.

[Roy H.]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

Yeah, I said $15-20 million was reasonable. I didn't say it was realistic, especially if Gordon has another year like this year.

And as for the repeater tax. They were a tax payer last season. They won't be this season. But next season if Gordon opts in and with Brown's deal kicking in they will assuredly be paying the tax. That means that the season I was discussing, if they let Hayward walk, they probably won't be a tax payer, which is why I said let him walk. But if they bring Hayward back, it most likely means they do become a repeater, which is what Jvalin and I are discussing.

2023 is a long way off.  We have until the last day of that season to get below the tax to avoid repeater penalties.  To me, it’s not a gigantic consideration right now.  For all we know, there will be a massive tax line bump in 2023, or tweaks to the CBA.

If you can retain Hayward you do so while he and Kemba are in their primes.  There’s no need to downgrade our talent over financial implications that may never apply.

Aren't we talking about the 2021-22 season?

2018-19 paid tax
2019-20 no tax
2020-21 pay tax
2021-22 pay repeater tax.

Isn't that the timeline?

Honestly, I could not care less if the team has to pay the tax or not. I am just looking at it from their perspective in the decision making as to whether to retain Hayward after 2020-21. Does re-signing him and putting them into a repeater situation have any affect in their decision making process?

I believe that tax applies in the season AFTER you've paid 3 of the previous 4 years.

Correct.

[nickagneta]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

Yeah, I said $15-20 million was reasonable. I didn't say it was realistic, especially if Gordon has another year like this year.

And as for the repeater tax. They were a tax payer last season. They won't be this season. But next season if Gordon opts in and with Brown's deal kicking in they will assuredly be paying the tax. That means that the season I was discussing, if they let Hayward walk, they probably won't be a tax payer, which is why I said let him walk. But if they bring Hayward back, it most likely means they do become a repeater, which is what Jvalin and I are discussing.

2023 is a long way off.  We have until the last day of that season to get below the tax to avoid repeater penalties.  To me, it’s not a gigantic consideration right now.  For all we know, there will be a massive tax line bump in 2023, or tweaks to the CBA.

If you can retain Hayward you do so while he and Kemba are in their primes.  There’s no need to downgrade our talent over financial implications that may never apply.

Aren't we talking about the 2021-22 season?

2018-19 paid tax
2019-20 no tax
2020-21 pay tax
2021-22 pay repeater tax.

Isn't that the timeline?

Honestly, I could not care less if the team has to pay the tax or not. I am just looking at it from their perspective in the decision making as to whether to retain Hayward after 2020-21. Does re-signing him and putting them into a repeater situation have any affect in their decision making process?

I believe that tax applies in the season AFTER you've paid 3 of the previous 4 years.

Correct.

Okay, my bad. Didn't realize that. TP to you guys

[Jvalin]

I don't have a clear idea of how to do this, but of the four stars, it seems pretty clear to me that Kemba is the most dispensable, especially if Ainge can do his job in the upcoming draft and trade up to get Halliburton. Hayward is a better player and better fit for this team than Kemba is.

I agree with this approach, except from the part that Hayward is a better player than Kemba.

If (for whatever reason) we have to sacrifice one of our big 5, I'd rather we trade Kemba. 

• We already got a replacement in Smart. I'd be perfectly happy with Smart being our starting PG.
• Kemba is a super explosive PG. His knee issue may become a big concern down the road.
• Don't like his contract. We'll be paying him 36 million at the age of 32 and 37.6 million at the age of 33. At least Hayward's contract runs till 2021. Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a team-friendly deal next year.

Having said that, I expect us to keep both Hayward and Kemba going forward. My question is whether we can keep the big 5 + Theis.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Again, I don't want to trade Hayward, but I had this thought today:

Boston receives: Giannis, McDermott

Milwaukee receives: Turner, Warren, pick 2 of Langford, Williams, and Williams, 14, 27, 30, two future Boston 1sts

Indiana receives: Hayward + Lopez, Hill, or Bledsoe (Indiana's choice)

Why for Boston? Because it's hard to get an MVP player and Giannis would be deadly next to the other Boston stars. I recognize another trade would need to be made eventually, but for one year, Boston would be fine.

Why for Bucks? Because this allows you to get younger, to get a variety of future draft assets, and still stay relevant in the playoffs for your fan base.

Why for Indiana? Turner is a frustrating disappointment, but this allows you to reform your team. If you want to be able to stay big, take Lopez. If you want to go smaller, take Hill or Bledsoe. Hayward is a better all-around player than Warren and he is an Indiana boy.