Mandatory Gordon Hayward trade (your ideas)

[Ogaju]

Celtics getting to the point that the team does not have a heirachy. Too many players on the same level of stardom. If it is mandatory that you trade any one of the stars make sure it is to get complimentary pieces that shore up the bench. The team does not need any more stars competing for touches. Team is already paying big money to three players and soon to add Tatum as a fourth. Team has enough stars.

I think in the right offence numerous stars can work. Golden State and Miami showed that. It just seems that might not have the right offence in place to always fully take advantage.

However, last night we generated 20+ open 3s and missed 15 or so of them, so maybe our offence is good, and our stars aren't quite reliable yet

Someone is going to haev to take less money for that to work.

[gouki88]

Celtics getting to the point that the team does not have a heirachy. Too many players on the same level of stardom. If it is mandatory that you trade any one of the stars make sure it is to get complimentary pieces that shore up the bench. The team does not need any more stars competing for touches. Team is already paying big money to three players and soon to add Tatum as a fourth. Team has enough stars.

I think in the right offence numerous stars can work. Golden State and Miami showed that. It just seems that might not have the right offence in place to always fully take advantage.

However, last night we generated 20+ open 3s and missed 15 or so of them, so maybe our offence is good, and our stars aren't quite reliable yet

Someone is going to haev to take less money for that to work.

Well I think Hayward is the natural one for that, as he's coming off his max soon, will be past his prime and has made hundreds of millions. I think he'll happily sign for something like 4/75, which will coincide with Tatum becoming a max player. Brown is also sub-max

[BE-Celtic]

Celtics getting to the point that the team does not have a heirachy. Too many players on the same level of stardom. If it is mandatory that you trade any one of the stars make sure it is to get complimentary pieces that shore up the bench. The team does not need any more stars competing for touches. Team is already paying big money to three players and soon to add Tatum as a fourth. Team has enough stars.

I think in the right offence numerous stars can work. Golden State and Miami showed that. It just seems that might not have the right offence in place to always fully take advantage.

However, last night we generated 20+ open 3s and missed 15 or so of them, so maybe our offence is good, and our stars aren't quite reliable yet

Someone is going to haev to take less money for that to work.

Well I think Hayward is the natural one for that, as he's coming off his max soon, will be past his prime and has made hundreds of millions. I think he'll happily sign for something like 4/75, which will coincide with Tatum becoming a max player. Brown is also sub-max

I agree that Brown is probably a sub-max, but I bet he could find teams to offer him the max if he really wanted it. It's often the problem to me, with franchises ready to go all in on everyone they can get. Not saying JB would accept anything just for the money of course

[jambr380]

Celtics getting to the point that the team does not have a heirachy. Too many players on the same level of stardom. If it is mandatory that you trade any one of the stars make sure it is to get complimentary pieces that shore up the bench. The team does not need any more stars competing for touches. Team is already paying big money to three players and soon to add Tatum as a fourth. Team has enough stars.

I think in the right offence numerous stars can work. Golden State and Miami showed that. It just seems that might not have the right offence in place to always fully take advantage.

However, last night we generated 20+ open 3s and missed 15 or so of them, so maybe our offence is good, and our stars aren't quite reliable yet

Someone is going to haev to take less money for that to work.

Well I think Hayward is the natural one for that, as he's coming off his max soon, will be past his prime and has made hundreds of millions. I think he'll happily sign for something like 4/75, which will coincide with Tatum becoming a max player. Brown is also sub-max

I agree that Brown is probably a sub-max, but I bet he could find teams to offer him the max if he really wanted it. It's often the problem to me, with franchises ready to go all in on everyone they can get. Not saying JB would accept anything just for the money of course

I think he was saying that JB is already sub-max since he signed his extension last offseason. If he were actually available this offseason, he would certainly command a full max contract. Honestly, though, it's not like his contract is that far off of max. Jamal Murray, for instance signed a full 5 year max last year with DEN and his 1st year salary will be $29.5M, while Jaylen's 1st year will be about $24M. Don't get me wrong, I'll take the savings, but he is still essentially a max contract if you are looking at team salary implications as a whole.

[BE-Celtic]

Celtics getting to the point that the team does not have a heirachy. Too many players on the same level of stardom. If it is mandatory that you trade any one of the stars make sure it is to get complimentary pieces that shore up the bench. The team does not need any more stars competing for touches. Team is already paying big money to three players and soon to add Tatum as a fourth. Team has enough stars.

I think in the right offence numerous stars can work. Golden State and Miami showed that. It just seems that might not have the right offence in place to always fully take advantage.

However, last night we generated 20+ open 3s and missed 15 or so of them, so maybe our offence is good, and our stars aren't quite reliable yet

Someone is going to haev to take less money for that to work.

Well I think Hayward is the natural one for that, as he's coming off his max soon, will be past his prime and has made hundreds of millions. I think he'll happily sign for something like 4/75, which will coincide with Tatum becoming a max player. Brown is also sub-max

I agree that Brown is probably a sub-max, but I bet he could find teams to offer him the max if he really wanted it. It's often the problem to me, with franchises ready to go all in on everyone they can get. Not saying JB would accept anything just for the money of course

I think he was saying that JB is already sub-max since he signed his extension last offseason. If he were actually available this offseason, he would certainly command a full max contract. Honestly, though, it's not like his contract is that far off of max. Jamal Murray, for instance signed a full 5 year max last year with DEN and his 1st year salary will be $29.5M, while Jaylen's 1st year will be about $24M. Don't get me wrong, I'll take the savings, but he is still essentially a max contract if you are looking at team salary implications as a whole.

Oh ok, sorry then  agreed !

[nickagneta]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

[Jvalin]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. We'll be deep in the tax, but that's what usually happens with legit contending teams.

Romeo isn't even part of our rotation right now (with Hayward being injured). You think he'll be ready to start in a year's time? I really don't see it to be honest.

[nickagneta]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

[Jvalin]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

[nickagneta]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

[Jvalin]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

[Roy H.]

Reminder:  we’re not particularly close to being luxury tax repeaters.

[jambr380]

Reminder:  we’re not particularly close to being luxury tax repeaters.

Not necessarily, but we have a great opportunity to restart the clock entirely this upcoming season by renegotiating with Hayward. If he picks up his option for 20-21, it is going to be extremely difficult to stay under in 21-22 (when Tatum's max kicks in), at which point we will hit the 3 out 4 year threshold. Perhaps if we just let Hayward walk in 2021, we will be okay, but it also removes a quality player from our rotation.

[Roy H.]

Reminder:  we’re not particularly close to being luxury tax repeaters.

Not necessarily, but we have a great opportunity to restart the clock entirely this upcoming season by renegotiating with Hayward. If he picks up his option for 20-21, it is going to be extremely difficult to stay under in 21-22 (when Tatum's max kicks in), at which point we will hit the 3 out 4 year threshold. Perhaps if we just let Hayward walk in 2021, we will be okay, but it also removes a quality player from our rotation.

Right. So no repeater tax paid until 2022-23.  It gives Danny plenty of time to figure things out.

[nickagneta]

Sometimes the best trade to make is the one you don't make. I think that's the case with Hayward. Let him opt in and go hard after the title next year with the Big 4, maybe while adding a vet or two on the bench. And then you can let him walk, allowing Romeo to take his 4th banana slot in the 2021-22 season. Really think that's the best way to go.

Why let him walk? Hopefully, we'll re-sign him on a reasonable contract. If you ask me, Hayward was our 3rd best player during the regular season.

Yeah, you could re-sign him at a reasonable rate but at that point you would be paying $103 million for just Tatum, Brown, Kemba and Smart. The team would also be a luxury tax repeater and would be paying:

150 percent for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175 percent from $5-10 million.
250 percent from $10-15 million.
325 percent from $15-20 million.
375 percent at $20 million.
425 percent at $25 million.
And so on.

Giving Hayward a reasonable $15-20 million a year deal would mean the Celtics luxury tax bill would be off the charts for years to come. So if Romeo or this year's pick is ready to step up and be that 4th guy and give you even 80% of what Gordon can, you probably have to make the sacrifice of letting Hayward go for the financial health of the team.

Now, I am not paying that luxury tax bill and Wyc has said he will pay the luxury tax for a contending or title team, but even though the Celtics basically print money, I am sure there are limits to just how much they are willing to spend in luxury tax.

Let's assume that

- the cap remains unchanged for 2 years, due to the impending recession
- Hayward's next contract starts at $17,500,000. I fully expect teams to be way more cautious with future contracts as a result of the stagnating cap.
- the C's draft all their first round picks this year
- next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year)

payroll for 2021/22:

1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Tatum $27,285,000 (= 25% of the cap)
3. Brown $25,794,643
4. Hayward $17,500,000
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. Timelord $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Edwards $1,782,621
10. Grizzlies pick $3,826,320
11. Celtics 2020 pick $2,252,280
12. Bucks pick $2,142,240
13. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
14. vet min $1,856,061
15. vet min $1,856,061
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857

total: $147,698,384

Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000

We'd be $15,071,384 over the tax line, which means that the owners would have to pay $28,981,998 in luxury tax.

Fwiw, the Thunder paid $61.6 million in tax last season and the Warriors paid $51.5 million.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/04/recent-history-of-nba-taxpaying-teams.html

Alternatively (in this scenario), if Hayward walks and we replace him with a vet min contract, we'll end up below the tax line!

There's no way to know what Wyc plans to do. Hopefully, he's willing to pay the tax in order to keep this team together.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic and I think your numbers off. If they are going to re-sign Hayward because they are a title contender then the idea that Danny would load up his 9 or 10 through 15 roster spots with rookies and or vet min players makes zero sense.

Theis will be retained at a number over $5 million a year. Your scenario has only Timelord as a center. There will need to be at least one and probably two centers added that can contribute. Don't see some draft pick being those players. So at the very least, Theis will be retained.

Also, I don't see Hayward re-signing at $17.5 million a year, especially if he has another 17/7/4 year on shooting splits of 50/39/85. If he has another year like this one and remains relatively healthy $23-25 million is probably the range Hayward would want to be signed at. No way he takes $17.5  million. He could get way more than that on the open market.

And I don't see any way Ainge makes all four picks this year, meaning he probably uses the MLE or BLE on vets. I could see Ainge using the BLE to retain Wanamaker, for instance and maybe the MLE on a vet that can give the bench some scoring punch.

You reconfigure all that and you most likely are $25-35 million over the tax line with a penalty starting at over 400%.

It is practically the worst case scenario, cause I assumed that the cap will stagnate for 2 seasons in a row. If the cap rises, the tax line will rise as well.

Not sure whether we could retain both Theis and Hayward.

My point is that it's definitely possible to keep Hayward. Don't think the 23-25 million range is a realistic estimation. You said it yourself in your previous post that a reasonable price for Hayward would be $15-20 million a year. Imo, chances are that teams will be way more cautious next season as a result of the stagnating cap.

Let me put it this way: If a desperate team offers Hayward a long-term contract starting at 23-25 million in year 1, then I'd want us to let him walk.

Yeah, I said $15-20 million was reasonable. I didn't say it was realistic, especially if Gordon has another year like this year.

And as for the repeater tax. They were a tax payer last season. They won't be this season. But next season if Gordon opts in and with Brown's deal kicking in they will assuredly be paying the tax. That means that the season I was discussing, if they let Hayward walk, they probably won't be a tax payer, which is why I said let him walk. But if they bring Hayward back, it most likely means they do become a repeater, which is what Jvalin and I are discussing.