Tatum End of Game Stats

[jpotter33]

https://x.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1737477698966974596?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Jayson Tatum

Tie game, 4th Qtr/OT, 5 seconds or less remaining, reg/post season career

So tie game, can’t lose and can win with a 2 or 3

FG - 3/14 - 21.4%

2P - 2/11 - 18.2%
3P - 1/3 - 33.3%

And is 1 for his last 10

Now, it’s not all gloom and doom. As late as February 2023, Tatum had the highest fg% on clutch tying/go-ahead shots in the last 24 seconds of the 4th, with this coming after the awesome Philly game-winner he had in February:

https://x.com/taylorcsnow/status/1629753206594052096?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Jayson Tatum is the only player in NBA history to shoot at least 50% on game-tying or go-ahead field goals in the last 24 seconds of the 4th quarter (min. 25 attempts).

After Saturday night's game-winner, he's 13-for-26 on such shots (15-for-29 including the playoffs).

I think the major difference is that from my recollection JT is much better in these scenarios when (1) there’s a bit more time, and/or (2) he’s working in an ATO play or when running a set play or action. All of his most memorable ones (at Philly in 2/23, season opener against Giannis in 2021, 2019 game-winner vs NYK, countless others at Orlando and Detroit and against Indy, etc.) have come after ATO plays or after running an action or play to get him a specific matchup or place on the floor. The only definitive one I can remember not coming from a specific set or ATO play is the Nets layup game-winner in 2022, but that was off of great off-ball movement and not iso.

For whatever reason, it feels like lately we’ve just decided to let Tatum or Brown try to iso their man themselves in end-game situations without either (a) calling a timeout to set up a specific play or action or (b) running an existing, specific action or set to put them in positions to succeed. This is exactly what we did last night and multiple times already this year and last year, and it almost always leads to poor, inefficient looks - usually tough, stepback contested threes. We didn’t even try to take advantage of the mismatch with Curry last night, which is the whole rationale of not calling timeout there to let them get poor defenders out and set their defense.

Tatum and Brown are great iso players, but they’re not at the level of a Curry, Lebron, KD, etc. who can go out and get you a quality look all on their own at any time. We have to do a better job of putting them in places to succeed, as they’ve consistently shown that it’s asking too much of them to iso and do it all on their own and get a quality look in those pressure situations.

Do your job, coaching staff, and put your players in positions to succeed! And as for the Jays, play within yourself, know your limits, and don’t always think you have to go back to the iso, stepback three in end-game situations.

[Mahk E Mahk]

great data, analysis, and conclusion, jp. TP.

it is odd how three different coaching staffs have allowed the J’s to squander leads/wins via the same poor looks, iso, and step-back threes.

[droopdog7]

The truth of the matter is that JT is a dang fine player.  But he's just not at the same level as an offensive generator as the highest of the high in the league.  This idea is most obvious during crunch time and during the playoffs, when the game changes in a fundamental way. 

[Kernewek]

First follow up question: Do we think Tatum (and Brown) can make that leap?

Second: Do they need to, in order for them to hit that next level as players/in order for us to win a chip?

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

So he's really good if he's got a full shot clock to work with, but pretty bad if he doesn't.

[Roy H.]

I don't really draw any conclusions from how a guy shoots with 5 seconds or less left in a one possession game.

I do agree that running specific plays after timeouts seems to be a better method, but I'm not sure that it's a strength of Joe's.

[Mahk E Mahk]

First follow up question: Do we think Tatum (and Brown) can make that leap?

Second: Do they need to, in order for them to hit that next level as players/in order for us to win a chip?

my $0.02

i still think tatum has the physical tools to make the leap but i don’t know if he has the mentality and intangibles. i definitely don’t see him making the jump with joe as coach. a couple of years under a top flight coach improves his chances. overall, i’d take the under (unfortunately).

i think we’re currently witnessing peak brown. i don’t see a path for jb to make a leap, as his negatives haven’t improved much in seven years. he’s an exceptional athlete, possibly elite, but he lacks significant basketball skill sets required to make the leap. overall, i'd confidently take the under on brown.

i think it’s possible for the C’s to jump to the next level and win a chip, if the J’s stop believing their own press, fully embrace team ball, abandon the three-ball at all costs mentality, and receive better coaching. i also think they’ll need a strong number three who can also offer solid leadership and accountability, especially with the jays. overall, i’d take the under without the above changes.

EDIT: jury is still out on pzing being the reliable third option needed for a chip.

[scaryjerry]

The truth of the matter is that JT is a dang fine player.  But he's just not at the same level as an offensive generator as the highest of the high in the league.  This idea is most obvious during crunch time and during the playoffs, when the game changes in a fundamental way.

Yup, he’s an all star, not an all time player. There’s still time to change that but the trajectory at this point especially if they fail again this year isn’t looking good. He might just be what he is.

[jpotter33]

The truth of the matter is that JT is a dang fine player.  But he's just not at the same level as an offensive generator as the highest of the high in the league.  This idea is most obvious during crunch time and during the playoffs, when the game changes in a fundamental way.

And honestly - that's fine! I think we have enough overall talent to still win a chip, even with Tatum not being quite at that very tippy top of offensive creation.

But I do think that means you have more work to do in the crunch time situations, and it's not as simple as just relying on your star(s) to go iso and get you a bucket in those high pressure situations. I wish the coaching staff would realize this and be more authoritative/paternalistic in helping these guys out in these situations, forcing them to run proven actions instead of letting them iso and make it up on the fly.

[jpotter33]

First follow up question: Do we think Tatum (and Brown) can make that leap?

Second: Do they need to, in order for them to hit that next level as players/in order for us to win a chip?

Regarding (1), I think Tatum definitely has the ability to, but it's going to require a change in his overall game and offensive philosophy. He's got to stop being lazy and settling for the difficult iso jumpers/threes as such a big part of his game, because he's just not good or efficient enough at them to do it that often. Look at Giannis. For all the crap he gets for being just a guy who "runs and dunks", he does what he excels at and doesn't play lazy and rely on his shaky jumper. Tatum needs some more of that in his game.

Regarding (2), Lowe was just talking about this on his podcast the other day with Bontemps. They were arguing that while Tatum isn't in that top-5 tier that you *generally* need to win a title, the collection of talent on the rest of the roster should suffice to be able to get them the rest of the way to the title. I think I generally agree with that philosophy.

[Mahk E Mahk]

[droopdog7]

The truth of the matter is that JT is a dang fine player.  But he's just not at the same level as an offensive generator as the highest of the high in the league.  This idea is most obvious during crunch time and during the playoffs, when the game changes in a fundamental way.

And honestly - that's fine! I think we have enough overall talent to still win a chip, even with Tatum not being quite at that very tippy top of offensive creation.

But I do think that means you have more work to do in the crunch time situations, and it's not as simple as just relying on your star(s) to go iso and get you a bucket in those high pressure situations. I wish the coaching staff would realize this and be more authoritative/paternalistic in helping these guys out in these situations, forcing them to run proven actions instead of letting them iso and make it up on the fly.

We’ve been the best team the past two year frankly.  The problem is that stars tend to break the model.  Curry did it two years ago and joker did it last year.  We can certainly do it with team, but it’s easier when you have one of THOSE guys.

[Big333223]

I'd like to see Tatum develop a go-to move in crunch time. These last 2 years, it often feels like Tatum is searching for something when it comes to the big moments, he needs to have something he can trust will at least get him a decent look against anyone a la Pierce's step-back or The Dirk Leg.

Maybe he already has that with his side step. When the moment comes, he needs to be more decisive.

[Chef Parish]

Watch old school NBA games, many times they would work the ball around or at least have some passes involved to see if they can create a good shot. They would rely on defense to keep the other team from scoring if any time is left.

Today's NBA, you cant leave any time on the clock and now we have players like Tatum who just dribble around and shoot at the last second with teams doubling him and/or taking a frantic/bad shot.

[kraidstar]

The truth of the matter is that JT is a dang fine player.  But he's just not at the same level as an offensive generator as the highest of the high in the league.  This idea is most obvious during crunch time and during the playoffs, when the game changes in a fundamental way.

And honestly - that's fine! I think we have enough overall talent to still win a chip, even with Tatum not being quite at that very tippy top of offensive creation.

But I do think that means you have more work to do in the crunch time situations, and it's not as simple as just relying on your star(s) to go iso and get you a bucket in those high pressure situations. I wish the coaching staff would realize this and be more authoritative/paternalistic in helping these guys out in these situations, forcing them to run proven actions instead of letting them iso and make it up on the fly.

We’ve been the best team the past two year frankly.  The problem is that stars tend to break the model.  Curry did it two years ago and joker did it last year.  We can certainly do it with team, but it’s easier when you have one of THOSE guys.

But Curry wasn't THAT guy until he was 26 years old. He'd only won ONE playoff series before their first title run. Jokic was 28 last summer. Tatum is still 25.

Maturity matters. IMO Brown and Tatum can generate shots as well as anyone. The problem is their poise. Panicking when the stakes get high. This is something everyone faces, but it usually improves with age. Let's hope that's the case here.