Ranking Schroder & Timelord among starters at their position

[Vermont Green]

I am not sure I understand RAPTOR as a stat in particular how it deals with players who play multiple positions (like Smart).  But I think Smart is a better PG than Schroder based on what I have seen this year and I would rank Schroder as no better than a fringe starter.  I think he has been better or maybe more consistent in the past but this year, not so much.

As for Rob Williams, I see him as kind of a fringe starter also.  I am not seeing what others seem to see.  He needs to round out his game more.  Right now, he is too limited.  I am OK with him being the 5th best starter on the team or 4th or whatever.

As to team needs, our main PGs are Smart and Schroder.  Our main bigs (call them centers if you want) are Horford and Williams.  I really think Smart and Schroder are fine.  I see no problem there.  I feel Horford and Williams are a far greater weakness.  I would be fine with one or the other, but both is a weakness.

[Celtics2021]

I am not sure I understand RAPTOR as a stat in particular how it deals with players who play multiple positions (like Smart).  But I think Smart is a better PG than Schroder based on what I have seen this year and I would rank Schroder as no better than a fringe starter.  I think he has been better or maybe more consistent in the past but this year, not so much.

As for Rob Williams, I see him as kind of a fringe starter also.  I am not seeing what others seem to see.  He needs to round out his game more.  Right now, he is too limited.  I am OK with him being the 5th best starter on the team or 4th or whatever.

As to team needs, our main PGs are Smart and Schroder.  Our main bigs (call them centers if you want) are Horford and Williams.  I really think Smart and Schroder are fine.  I see no problem there.  I feel Horford and Williams are a far greater weakness.  I would be fine with one or the other, but both is a weakness.

Don’t worry about positions.  RAPTOR doesn’t care about them within a year — that’s simply a sorting mechanism on the website.  A player’s actual RAPTOR would be the same if you classified him as a PG or a C, so long as everything that he and everyone else did on the basketball court was the same.

[Vermont Green]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

[Who]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

[Who]

I keep thinking of Rolando Blackman when I think of Jaylen Brown these days. Good player, made some All-Star games, part of some good (and some underachieving) teams but never became an All-NBA guy.

Played with a talented SF in Mark Aguirre too. Those 80s Mavs had 2 highly talented teams (two 50+ win seasons) in the 80s and were middling (38-47 win teams) the rest of their (Blackman, Aguirre, D.Harper) time together.

[Somebody]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

Not exactly - other APM metrics that are more reliable think that he isn't that far off from Tatum. For example, EPM has Tatum at +2.0/+0.8 and Jaylen at +1.6/+0.8.

[Somebody]

I keep thinking of Rolando Blackman when I think of Jaylen Brown these days. Good player, made some All-Star games, part of some good (and some underachieving) teams but never became an All-NBA guy.

Played with a talented SF in Mark Aguirre too. Those 80s Mavs had 2 highly talented teams (two 50+ win seasons) in the 80s and were middling (38-47 win teams) the rest of their (Blackman, Aguirre, D.Harper) time together.

CONFIDENCE BABY, CONFIDENCE

https://makeagif.com/i/LEPONL

[Vermont Green]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

Just doesn't line up with my eye test.  Tatum at 5.2 is top 10 in the league.  Smart at 3.1 is top 50.  Brown at 2.8 is tied for 60 with Capela and Crowder.  Like I said, this had most of the Celtics pretty much where you would expect.  I think it is missing something with Brown.  No stat ranking algorithm is ever going to be perfect.  I thought overall, RAPTOR ranked the Celtics pretty well.

[footey]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

Just doesn't line up with my eye test.  Tatum at 5.2 is top 10 in the league.  Smart at 3.1 is top 50.  Brown at 2.8 is tied for 60 with Capela and Crowder.  Like I said, this had most of the Celtics pretty much where you would expect.  I think it is missing something with Brown.  No stat ranking algorithm is ever going to be perfect.  I thought overall, RAPTOR ranked the Celtics pretty well.

Tatum is not top 10 in the league this season, that is a joke.

[Vermont Green]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

Just doesn't line up with my eye test.  Tatum at 5.2 is top 10 in the league.  Smart at 3.1 is top 50.  Brown at 2.8 is tied for 60 with Capela and Crowder.  Like I said, this had most of the Celtics pretty much where you would expect.  I think it is missing something with Brown.  No stat ranking algorithm is ever going to be perfect.  I thought overall, RAPTOR ranked the Celtics pretty well.

Tatum is not top 10 in the league this season, that is a joke.

If you browse the list of the 10-20 players that are immediately behind Tatum, there is Durant, Harden, Booker, Trae Young as ones you could possibly move up ahead of Tatum.  Durant and Harden are clearly better when healthy but are not this season.  I am fine with Tatum over Booker (he is at 27 which seems low) and Young (who is right behind Tatum at 9).  Tatum is actually tied for 7th with LeBron (not having his best season).  I don't think this is so far off.  Maybe not perfect but not a "joke".

[Moranis]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

Just doesn't line up with my eye test.  Tatum at 5.2 is top 10 in the league.  Smart at 3.1 is top 50.  Brown at 2.8 is tied for 60 with Capela and Crowder.  Like I said, this had most of the Celtics pretty much where you would expect.  I think it is missing something with Brown.  No stat ranking algorithm is ever going to be perfect.  I thought overall, RAPTOR ranked the Celtics pretty well.

Tatum is not top 10 in the league this season, that is a joke.

Who is better than him?

[keevsnick]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

Just doesn't line up with my eye test.  Tatum at 5.2 is top 10 in the league.  Smart at 3.1 is top 50.  Brown at 2.8 is tied for 60 with Capela and Crowder.  Like I said, this had most of the Celtics pretty much where you would expect.  I think it is missing something with Brown.  No stat ranking algorithm is ever going to be perfect.  I thought overall, RAPTOR ranked the Celtics pretty well.

Tatum is not top 10 in the league this season, that is a joke.

Who is better than him?

Honestly I don't think the statement "Tatum is not top 10 in the league" needs to be justified. Talking strictly about what the guy has done this year its just kind of obvious he hasn't been. That doesn't mean he's bad, but top 10 is a ridiculously high bar.

[PhoSita]

Interesting stat - overall RAPTOR seems to suggest that our best starting lineup right now is:

PG: Dennis Schroeder
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Enes Kanter

And the WAR suggests that it would be

PG: Dennis Schroeder
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Rob Williams

Not sure I agree with either.   

It also seems to suggest that Jaylen Brown is our best trade piece (since he is our best overall player that ISN'T our #1 at any single position) and that the PG spot (Schroeder) is our biggest positional weakness in our starting five.

So takeaway from this is...we should trade Jaylen Brown + Dennis Schroeder and upgrade our starting PG spot? 

Yeah I'm certainly not trying to make this about RAPTOR, I don't put a ton of stock in that stat necessarily.

I used to rely a lot on ESPN RPM but for some reason that's not available anymore

[PhoSita]

I keep thinking of Rolando Blackman when I think of Jaylen Brown these days. Good player, made some All-Star games, part of some good (and some underachieving) teams but never became an All-NBA guy.

Played with a talented SF in Mark Aguirre too. Those 80s Mavs had 2 highly talented teams (two 50+ win seasons) in the 80s and were middling (38-47 win teams) the rest of their (Blackman, Aguirre, D.Harper) time together.

The guys I always think of with Jaylen are Jason Richardson and Caron Butler

As for Rob Williams, I see him as kind of a fringe starter also.  I am not seeing what others seem to see.  He needs to round out his game more.  Right now, he is too limited.  I am OK with him being the 5th best starter on the team or 4th or whatever.

I think Rob is really, really good at a limited set of things but those things happen to be very valuable things for a center.

He's an elite finisher. Very good at catching lobs. Overall very good roll threat.

He's got an insane block percentage, which is fun, but that does probably overstate his defensive value. He definitely seems to be a positive as an interior defender.  Harder question about whether he's especially good as a team defender. I think he's improved in that regard.

He's fine as a rebounder, not amazing, but I think individual rebounding is overrated.

I think Rob could be better as a screen setter. But he does somewhat make up for that by being a very good high-low passer.


In summary I think as long as you don't need him to be a scoring option Rob does almost all the things you need from a center, and he does those things at a fairly high level.

[Moranis]

To follow up:

Tatum     5.2
Brown     2.8
Smart     3.1
Horford   2.5
Rwill       2.1
Schro     1.4
JRich      0.5
GWill      0.7
Freedom 1.0
Pritch     -0.4
Langf      0.4
Nesmith -0.2

I searched this in the order that I thought would be best to worst (roughly) or by how much they play in the regular rotation.  It all lined up pretty well except Brown.  Why does he rank so low?

(1) Offense = lack of passing & ball-handling relative to high volume of shot attempts. He can look after himself but he does not make people around him better. So his offensive impact is relatively low compared to his high scoring numbers.

(2) Defense = most perimeter guys don't rate well on these defensive metrics unless they are great team defenders. Brown is more of a one-on-one defender. He does great in those one-on-ones. But he is not great on team D.

Just doesn't line up with my eye test.  Tatum at 5.2 is top 10 in the league.  Smart at 3.1 is top 50.  Brown at 2.8 is tied for 60 with Capela and Crowder.  Like I said, this had most of the Celtics pretty much where you would expect.  I think it is missing something with Brown.  No stat ranking algorithm is ever going to be perfect.  I thought overall, RAPTOR ranked the Celtics pretty well.

Tatum is not top 10 in the league this season, that is a joke.

Who is better than him?

Honestly I don't think the statement "Tatum is not top 10 in the league" needs to be justified. Talking strictly about what the guy has done this year its just kind of obvious he hasn't been. That doesn't mean he's bad, but top 10 is a ridiculously high bar.

Sure, but he is 4th in total points and 10th in ppg.  He is 17th in total rebounds.  He is 3rd in mpg.  So it isn't like there aren't metrics you could use to support that position.

I have no idea if he is in the top 10, but it is far from a joke, even with his shooting being down, especially since the Celtics are still significantly better when he is on the floor vs. off it (+8.0 per 100 possessions).