Cs investigating trade value on Smart, Richardson, and others

[Celtics2021]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

My guess is that Kuberski's comment is based upon more than one game where Tatum went nuclear.

This year the team is 21-18 with Smart.  Last year we were 24-24.

As for +/-, it's a wonky stat.  Last year, Evan Fournier led the team in plus-minus per game.  Tatum was second, followed by Luke Kornet and Kemba Walker.  Then it was Smart, followed by Jeff Teague.  JB was ninth.  Rob Williams was 13th.

We’re also 3-6 without Smart this year.  Heck, we’re 56-52 when Tatum plays the last two seasons, and 46-41 with Smart, if you want to use win-loss records as your metric. (FYI, I’ve got us as 25-23 with Smart last year, if you’re wondering about any discrepancy between our numbers).

Plus-minus is wonky to a degree (especially when you throw in guys like Kornet who barely played, which is true for every single stat in existence).  I like on-off more for a season stat.  Smart is second in that, behind Tatum.  As he was last year amongst regulars.

No stat is the end-all, be-all, of course.  But the argument for Smart has always been that he does things that don’t show up in the box score, dating back to his first week or so on the Celtics, when Stevens said something to the effect of “tonight I learned that when Marcus Smart is in the game, good things happen” (I think it was against Dallas if anyone wants to find the quote). So yeah, I’m going to look at what happens when Marcus is in the game, and especially compared to what happens when he isn’t.

The #1 thing that happened yesterday was that Jayson Tatum was a superstar for the first time in at least a month.  The #2 thing that happened was that Marcus Smart was back.

[Moranis]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

My guess is that Kuberski's comment is based upon more than one game where Tatum went nuclear.

This year the team is 21-18 with Smart.  Last year we were 24-24.

As for +/-, it's a wonky stat.  Last year, Evan Fournier led the team in plus-minus per game.  Tatum was second, followed by Luke Kornet and Kemba Walker.  Then it was Smart, followed by Jeff Teague.  JB was ninth.  Rob Williams was 13th.

according to bball-ref, Fournier was +2.2 per 100 possessions and his on/off was +1.4.  Neither one of those was anywhere near leading the team. 

[Roy H.]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

My guess is that Kuberski's comment is based upon more than one game where Tatum went nuclear.

This year the team is 21-18 with Smart.  Last year we were 24-24.

As for +/-, it's a wonky stat.  Last year, Evan Fournier led the team in plus-minus per game.  Tatum was second, followed by Luke Kornet and Kemba Walker.  Then it was Smart, followed by Jeff Teague.  JB was ninth.  Rob Williams was 13th.

according to bball-ref, Fournier was +2.2 per 100 possessions and his on/off was +1.4.  Neither one of those was anywhere near leading the team.

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/players-traditional/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1

No idea what BBR says, but NBA.com has Fournier on top per game.

[Roy H.]

The #1 thing that happened yesterday was that Jayson Tatum was a superstar for the first time in at least a month.  The #2 thing that happened was that Marcus Smart was back.

It's not just that Smart was back, though.  It's that he was back and he played a mostly controlled game where he focused on defense and play-making. 

He only took nine shots, and he was efficient (.556 eFG%). 

We're 11-5 when Marcus plays and shoots nine times or fewer.  That makes us 10-13 when he shoots more than nine times.

[todd_days_41]

The #1 thing that happened yesterday was that Jayson Tatum was a superstar for the first time in at least a month.  The #2 thing that happened was that Marcus Smart was back.

It's not just that Smart was back, though.  It's that he was back and he played a mostly controlled game where he focused on defense and play-making. 

He only took nine shots, and he was efficient (.556 eFG%). 

We're 11-5 when Marcus plays and shoots nine times or fewer.  That makes us 10-13 when he shoots more than nine times.

This is such a critical summation of the state of the Cs. For better or worse, with how this team is structured, when Marcus is "the best version of himself", the Cs are pretty effective. When he's not, they become inefficient and give up too many easy buckets.

This is Marcus' 8th year in the league. He's the same player he's always been -- not much better, not much worse. What will it take to get through to this guy? He should now how he should operate if he cares about winning.

[Moranis]

The #1 thing that happened yesterday was that Jayson Tatum was a superstar for the first time in at least a month.  The #2 thing that happened was that Marcus Smart was back.

It's not just that Smart was back, though.  It's that he was back and he played a mostly controlled game where he focused on defense and play-making. 

He only took nine shots, and he was efficient (.556 eFG%). 

We're 11-5 when Marcus plays and shoots nine times or fewer.  That makes us 10-13 when he shoots more than nine times.

Is it a chicken or egg situation though?  I mean does he shoot more because the team isn't doing well and he is trying to get them going, or is the team not doing well because he is shooting more?

[Roy H.]

The #1 thing that happened yesterday was that Jayson Tatum was a superstar for the first time in at least a month.  The #2 thing that happened was that Marcus Smart was back.

It's not just that Smart was back, though.  It's that he was back and he played a mostly controlled game where he focused on defense and play-making. 

He only took nine shots, and he was efficient (.556 eFG%). 

We're 11-5 when Marcus plays and shoots nine times or fewer.  That makes us 10-13 when he shoots more than nine times.

Is it a chicken or egg situation though?  I mean does he shoot more because the team isn't doing well and he is trying to get them going, or is the team not doing well because he is shooting more?

It's hard to say for certain, but if Marcus chooses to "shoot more ... to get [the team] going", then in most cases he's making a poor decision.

[todd_days_41]

The #1 thing that happened yesterday was that Jayson Tatum was a superstar for the first time in at least a month.  The #2 thing that happened was that Marcus Smart was back.

It's not just that Smart was back, though.  It's that he was back and he played a mostly controlled game where he focused on defense and play-making. 

He only took nine shots, and he was efficient (.556 eFG%). 

We're 11-5 when Marcus plays and shoots nine times or fewer.  That makes us 10-13 when he shoots more than nine times.

Is it a chicken or egg situation though?  I mean does he shoot more because the team isn't doing well and he is trying to get them going, or is the team not doing well because he is shooting more?

Smart is supposed to be the starting point guard. If he needs to get the team going, get your teammates open shots. Go out and get 15 assists for once (his career high is 12).

[nickagneta]

The #1 thing that happened yesterday was that Jayson Tatum was a superstar for the first time in at least a month.  The #2 thing that happened was that Marcus Smart was back.

It's not just that Smart was back, though.  It's that he was back and he played a mostly controlled game where he focused on defense and play-making. 

He only took nine shots, and he was efficient (.556 eFG%). 

We're 11-5 when Marcus plays and shoots nine times or fewer.  That makes us 10-13 when he shoots more than nine times.

Is it a chicken or egg situation though?  I mean does he shoot more because the team isn't doing well and he is trying to get them going, or is the team not doing well because he is shooting more?

Yes. Both of those things. It's not a black and white situation.

We have all seen Marcus shoot at volume and shoot the team out of wins. We have seen him shoot tremendously at volume and help the team win. We have seen him shoot very little and help the team win by concentrating on other aspects of his game. We have seen him not shoot much and helped lose the game with bad decisions, losing his cool and playing crap on defense.

Maybe he does some of these things more than others, but he has done them all. Personally, I think he is at his best when he shoots less, shoots mostly 2 pointers or only wide open threes in the flow of the offense, is passing without the "too cute, too fancy" passes and is being the defensive stalwart he can be. But how often do we see that version of Smart? Once every 2 games? Once every 3 games? Once every 4?

[Celtics2021]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

My guess is that Kuberski's comment is based upon more than one game where Tatum went nuclear.

This year the team is 21-18 with Smart.  Last year we were 24-24.

As for +/-, it's a wonky stat.  Last year, Evan Fournier led the team in plus-minus per game.  Tatum was second, followed by Luke Kornet and Kemba Walker.  Then it was Smart, followed by Jeff Teague.  JB was ninth.  Rob Williams was 13th.

according to bball-ref, Fournier was +2.2 per 100 possessions and his on/off was +1.4.  Neither one of those was anywhere near leading the team.

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/players-traditional/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1

No idea what BBR says, but NBA.com has Fournier on top per game.

That's weird.  Normally there's a slight discrepancy between the two, since basketball-reference uses a box score definition of possessions (essentially using made shots, rebounds, and turnovers to determine number of possessions) whereas NBA.com uses tracking stats for the number of possessions.  BRef uses their method so they can compare to historical seasons before tracking stats existed in the past decade.  Normally the results are pretty similar, but there's a possession or two per game that doesn't quite get accounted for correctly (jump balls being the most common).  Normally you'll see these numbers within 0.1-0.2 of each other, because when you're talking 100 possessions in a game, a discrepancy of 1-2 in the denominator matters at the decimal level.  Fournier's number is very different on the sites.  I've never seen that before.

But this isn't about Fournier.  It's about Smart, and the last two seasons the Celtics have performed better with Marcus than without, and of the guys who've been here both seasons, only Tatum has better results in that regard.

[Moranis]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

My guess is that Kuberski's comment is based upon more than one game where Tatum went nuclear.

This year the team is 21-18 with Smart.  Last year we were 24-24.

As for +/-, it's a wonky stat.  Last year, Evan Fournier led the team in plus-minus per game.  Tatum was second, followed by Luke Kornet and Kemba Walker.  Then it was Smart, followed by Jeff Teague.  JB was ninth.  Rob Williams was 13th.

according to bball-ref, Fournier was +2.2 per 100 possessions and his on/off was +1.4.  Neither one of those was anywhere near leading the team.

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/players-traditional/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1

No idea what BBR says, but NBA.com has Fournier on top per game.

That's weird.  Normally there's a slight discrepancy between the two, since basketball-reference uses a box score definition of possessions (essentially using made shots, rebounds, and turnovers to determine number of possessions) whereas NBA.com uses tracking stats for the number of possessions.  BRef uses their method so they can compare to historical seasons before tracking stats existed in the past decade.  Normally the results are pretty similar, but there's a possession or two per game that doesn't quite get accounted for correctly (jump balls being the most common).  Normally you'll see these numbers within 0.1-0.2 of each other, because when you're talking 100 possessions in a game, a discrepancy of 1-2 in the denominator matters at the decimal level.  Fournier's number is very different on the sites.  I've never seen that before.

But this isn't about Fournier.  It's about Smart, and the last two seasons the Celtics have performed better with Marcus than without, and of the guys who've been here both seasons, only Tatum has better results in that regard.

well bball-ref has Tatum's actual +- at +2.5 and Fournier at +2.8 which matches exactly nba.com.  The possession stats though are different, per 100 possessions they have Tatum at +2.8 and his on/off at +5.3 and Fournier at +2.2 and on/off at +1.4.  I prefer the possessions stat more because it is much easier to compare players on different teams and accounts much better for pace, how good the team is, etc.

[gouki88]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

Tatum exploding for 51 had a bit more to do with the blowout victory than Smart. Smart just happened to share the court a lot with Tatum. His steals and assists were good, but his turnovers, fouls and three point shooting were all bad.

[Celtics2021]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

Tatum exploding for 51 had a bit more to do with the blowout victory than Smart. Smart just happened to share the court a lot with Tatum. His steals and assists were good, but his turnovers, fouls and three point shooting were all bad.

True, but it also felt like guys were in the right place on offense a lot more than it has recently, and I definitely noticed Smart on more than one occasion telling guys where to be.  Smart played well and helped direct the offense.  Maybe getting a birds-eye view of the problems while he’s been out will help both him and his teammates.

Certainly Tatum making shots mattered a ton, just as missing them hurt.  But the Tatum-Smart pairing yesterday was Tatum’s best 2-man combination in terms of net rating, while it wasn’t Smart’s best 2-man combination.  So it wasn’t completely Tatum.

[fingerlakes]

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2022/01/marcus-smart-linked-to-dallas-mavericks-in-trade-talks-would-a-potential-deal-make-sense-for-celtics-report.html

[gouki88]

Marcus Smart pulled Tatum and Brown before tipoff, told them he loves them and the team and basically to keep doing their best and work on their game.

Signs that Marcus Smart is on the trading block and may be headed to Utah?

More like signs of a true leader. Smart is not going anywhere.

Smart needs to go. His skill set at this point is a luxury on a team that has a lot more pressing needs (like a decent point guard). The team is going nowhere and he's probably the best trade asset they have unless they decide to move Brown.

This just seems like a really odd thing to say after yesterday: Smart returns, they blow out the Wizards (who are not worse than the Blazers), Smart goes for 11pts/6assists=directly involved in 23 Celtics points and puts up a +36 +/-.

Tatum exploding for 51 had a bit more to do with the blowout victory than Smart. Smart just happened to share the court a lot with Tatum. His steals and assists were good, but his turnovers, fouls and three point shooting were all bad.

True, but it also felt like guys were in the right place on offense a lot more than it has recently, and I definitely noticed Smart on more than one occasion telling guys where to be.  Smart played well and helped direct the offense.  Maybe getting a birds-eye view of the problems while he’s been out will help both him and his teammates.

Certainly Tatum making shots mattered a ton, just as missing them hurt.  But the Tatum-Smart pairing yesterday was Tatum’s best 2-man combination in terms of net rating, while it wasn’t Smart’s best 2-man combination.  So it wasn’t completely Tatum.

Certainly, he definitely orchestrates better than Schroder does (does Dennis do that at all?), and his defensive communication helps a lot.

I just cannot stand his brain-dead decision-making, whether it be ill-advised shots or turning it over trying to throw Magic Johnson-like passes. Further, I do not like his fit on offence as the sole point guard. We need some dribble penetration and shooting in the starting lineup.