Are Barrett and Williamson better prospects than Tatum?

[celticsclay]

How often are you sure a player is going to be really good based on what they do in college and then they enter the league and play as well as Jayson Tatum has to start his career?

It's usually like 1 or 2 guys every couple of years, right?  Usually that means somebody that everybody knows will be the #1 pick years in advance.

So easy to look at college prospects and assume they'll work out like the best comparison you can think of, whereas a guy who's already been in the league a year and a half is a relatively known quantity.


I wouldn't give up Tatum for anything less than the type of prospect that comes along once every 5-10 years, not your run of the mill top 5 draft prospect at Duke or Kentucky.

Tatum is the best prospect from his class (though Fox and Collins have significantly closed that gap this year and Mitchell is still a better player and may always be), but the draft class on either side of his each have at least 1 guy that is a better prospect so it seems like a strange line to draw in the sand.

How is Mitchell a better player? Tatum shoots better from 2, 3 averages more boards, half the turnovers. Advanced stats he has a higher PER, Winshares. BMP, DMP. VORP. I mean, seriously how can you say that lol? You are such a trip.

[PhoSita]

Zion reminds me of Larry Johnson crossed with Bo Jackson. Like a smaller Shaq (EDIT actually shorter, he's gotta weigh more than Shaq did at 19) with more range and ball handling. If he approaches his ceiling he'll be a very special player, like MVP caliber.

That remains to be seen of course but he's the one just about every GM would take right now out of the three.

The question you have to ask about every elite prospect coming into the league now is: "Will he create three point shots for himself?  Will he create three point shots for others?"

It is very difficult to imagine a player for whom the answer to those questions is "No" becoming an MVP type player.

Not that difficult as we have one of those guys right now in Giannis. Not saying Zion would become Giannis but it's fair to say he's one of the very few recent prospects who's as physically talented as him.

I would say that Giannis creates 3 point shots for others by being able to get to the rim whenever he wants and having the height, length, and skill to pass out to open shooters.

That's why it was so key for them to get a bunch of shooters around him.

[PhoSita]

but the draft class on either side of his each have at least 1 guy that is a better prospect so it seems like a strange line to draw in the sand.

I'm saying Tatum isn't a Ben Simmons or Luka type prospect, but he's the next best thing.

Do you really think this draft has 3+ guys who are better than that?

If you do, I think you're overrating this draft.  Either that or this is the greatest draft ever.

[Moranis]

but the draft class on either side of his each have at least 1 guy that is a better prospect so it seems like a strange line to draw in the sand.

I'm saying Tatum isn't a Ben Simmons or Luka type prospect, but he's the next best thing.

Do you really think this draft has 3+ guys who are better than that?

If you do, I think you're overrating this draft.  Either that or this is the greatest draft ever.

I have no idea, but if Tatum was Doncic's draft I think he goes behind Doncic and Ayton for sure and quite possibly Bagley (though his injuries are a problem).  So if there are 2 and possibly 3 players that go ahead of him in the draft after him, and 1 guy (Simmons) going ahead of him in the draft before him, I just find it strange to draw that line in the sand that you were drawing, especially with the 2 extra years you get from a 2019 draftee.  Frankly, you have to go back a long time before you find a draft that didn't have a player that wouldn't have been picked ahead of Tatum (Towns, Embiid and Jokic, Giannis and maybe Gobert, Davis and Lillard and maybe Beal, etc.).  Tatum has very good potential, but the way you were treating him is like you would treat Lebron, Durant, or someone like that.  Maybe Tatum gets there, and I do think he has a shot at reaching top 3 NBA player status, but he is nowhere near the type of surefire prospect that you are sure at a minimum is going to be a consistent all nba level player. 

[wiley]

Taking Tatum's NBA success out of the equation and looking at all three as College Freshman I would rank them

Zion
Barrett
Tatum

With what we know about Tatum I would rank them

Zion
Tatum
Barrett

I do not think there is a huge gap between Tatum and Zion as I feel both players can be eventually be the #1 guy on a championship team / perennial all NBA 1st team players. In 5 years I could easily see Tatum as a 25+ppg dominate scoring wing and Zion as a 20pt 10rb double double machine. I am also high on Barret but I see him more as a 2nd option type star who will still be a perennial all star but might not have the game to carry an elite team.

This is how I would rank it too. I think when people are remembering whether or not tatum was hyped coming into the draft, he has basically advanced a major skill in shooting. He shot 34% from 3 from the college line, then came in and has shot 40% from 3 across nearly 2 seasons in the NBA. If Tatum had shot 43% from 3 in college or whatever people think is the equivalent of a guy that shoots 40% from NBA line, he would probably have been a lot more hyped.

Also like his ranking, and the Griffin/Draymond Green hybrid (plus heft) comparison.

If Barrett can eventually shoot the three as well as Tatum, then I think he'll surpass him as an overall player.  Otherwise I think they'll remain fairly close through the years...with Tatum ahead for now of course.

Zion to me is clearly far ahead of the other two as prospects.

[KG Living Legend]

I wouldn't say Barrett is a better prospect, but people always start to fall in love with prospects who aren't even in the league yet, so who knows? Once drafted he'll lose 10% of his value and then halfway through Barrett's first season he'll lose 30% of his pre-draft value. He has major flaws that will prevent him from being a star prospect if not addressed early.

What are those flaws?

 Just an avg 3 point shooter at .322% and a poor FT shooter at .678%.

 His body control absorbing contact, while still finishing at the rim is among the best I've ever seen.

[Moranis]

Taking Tatum's NBA success out of the equation and looking at all three as College Freshman I would rank them

Zion
Barrett
Tatum

With what we know about Tatum I would rank them

Zion
Tatum
Barrett

I do not think there is a huge gap between Tatum and Zion as I feel both players can be eventually be the #1 guy on a championship team / perennial all NBA 1st team players. In 5 years I could easily see Tatum as a 25+ppg dominate scoring wing and Zion as a 20pt 10rb double double machine. I am also high on Barret but I see him more as a 2nd option type star who will still be a perennial all star but might not have the game to carry an elite team.

This is how I would rank it too. I think when people are remembering whether or not tatum was hyped coming into the draft, he has basically advanced a major skill in shooting. He shot 34% from 3 from the college line, then came in and has shot 40% from 3 across nearly 2 seasons in the NBA. If Tatum had shot 43% from 3 in college or whatever people think is the equivalent of a guy that shoots 40% from NBA line, he would probably have been a lot more hyped.

Also like his ranking, and the Griffin/Draymond Green hybrid (plus heft) comparison.

If Barrett can eventually shoot the three as well as Tatum, then I think he'll surpass him as an overall player.  Otherwise I think they'll remain fairly close through the years...with Tatum ahead for now of course.

Zion to me is clearly far ahead of the other two as prospects.

Barrett is shooting 32.2% from 3 so only about 2% less than Tatum.  But other than that Barrett has been better than Tatum was a freshman and Barrett is on a much better overall team with much better players cannibalizing his stats. I really don't understand why so many people have Zion ahead of RJ, as RJ has been the better player and they play on the same team.  Not only that, RJ has the more transferable skills to the NBA.  I really hope that Sacto pick ends up at 2 and whoever gets 1 stupidily takes Zion so Boston can land RJ.  That would be a dream. 

[nickagneta]

I have never been one to put huge value on teenagers. You just never know what they will be like when they are playing against NBA competition rather than high school and college.

Tatum is young but has proven he has what it takes to be a star in this league. To me, being proven as being able to star in this league is more important than raw ability that hasn't been proven.

Markelle Fultz
Dragan Bender
Brandon Ingram
Jahlil Okafor
Mario Hezonja
Jabari Parker
Dante Exum
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Anthony Bennett

2#1s, 2#2s, 1#3, 2#4s, 3#5s. All massive busts. All in the top 5. All in the last 5 years.

I will take the 21 year old that has proven he can be a star in the league before a top 5 pick any day. Even at the top of the draft, it's still a roll of the dice.

[gouki88]

I have never been one to put huge value on teenagers. You just never know what they will be like when they are playing against NBA competition rather than high school and college.

Tatum is young but has proven he has what it takes to be a star in this league. To me, being proven as being able to star in this league is more important than raw ability that hasn't been proven.

Markelle Fultz
Dragan Bender
Brandon Ingram
Jahlil Okafor
Mario Hezonja
Jabari Parker
Dante Exum
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Anthony Bennett

2#1s, 2#2s, 1#3, 2#4s, 3#5s. All massive busts. All in the top 5. All in the last 5 years.

I will take the 21 year old that has proven he can be a star in the league before a top 5 pick any day. Even at the top of the draft, it's still a roll of the dice.

Bit pedantic, but dunno that Ingram fits here. He’s averaging 18/5/3 at the moment, and has been killing it as of late. Pains me to
admit it

[Moranis]

I have never been one to put huge value on teenagers. You just never know what they will be like when they are playing against NBA competition rather than high school and college.

Tatum is young but has proven he has what it takes to be a star in this league. To me, being proven as being able to star in this league is more important than raw ability that hasn't been proven.

Markelle Fultz
Dragan Bender
Brandon Ingram
Jahlil Okafor
Mario Hezonja
Jabari Parker
Dante Exum
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Anthony Bennett

2#1s, 2#2s, 1#3, 2#4s, 3#5s. All massive busts. All in the top 5. All in the last 5 years.

I will take the 21 year old that has proven he can be a star in the league before a top 5 pick any day. Even at the top of the draft, it's still a roll of the dice.

Bit pedantic, but dunno that Ingram fits here. He’s averaging 18/5/3 at the moment, and has been killing it as of late. Pains me to
admit it

yeah and Parker blew out his knees.  And frankly of the rest only Fultz and Okafor were expected to do great things.  If the larger point is that many years there is crap in the top 5 then sure that is correct but if the point is that the surefire prospects crap out a lot, well that just isn't true all that much. It happens like Okafor but he is the exception and not the rule

[nickagneta]

I have never been one to put huge value on teenagers. You just never know what they will be like when they are playing against NBA competition rather than high school and college.

Tatum is young but has proven he has what it takes to be a star in this league. To me, being proven as being able to star in this league is more important than raw ability that hasn't been proven.

Markelle Fultz
Dragan Bender
Brandon Ingram
Jahlil Okafor
Mario Hezonja
Jabari Parker
Dante Exum
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Anthony Bennett

2#1s, 2#2s, 1#3, 2#4s, 3#5s. All massive busts. All in the top 5. All in the last 5 years.

I will take the 21 year old that has proven he can be a star in the league before a top 5 pick any day. Even at the top of the draft, it's still a roll of the dice.

Bit pedantic, but dunno that Ingram fits here. He’s averaging 18/5/3 at the moment, and has been killing it as of late. Pains me to
admit it

yeah and Parker blew out his knees.  And frankly of the rest only Fultz and Okafor were expected to do great things.  If the larger point is that many years there is crap in the top 5 then sure that is correct but if the point is that the surefire prospects crap out a lot, well that just isn't true all that much. It happens like Okafor but he is the exception and not the rule

This isn't true. It may be true now. It may be true in hindsight. But before each of their drafts, there were huge things expected from each and every one of these prospects. And that is where we are right now, before the draft.

As an aside and not a response to your post Moranis, I have no idea why someone would use college stats to try to state how good an NBA propect someone is. Those stats do not translate to NBA success. Never has.

[Moranis]

I have never been one to put huge value on teenagers. You just never know what they will be like when they are playing against NBA competition rather than high school and college.

Tatum is young but has proven he has what it takes to be a star in this league. To me, being proven as being able to star in this league is more important than raw ability that hasn't been proven.

Markelle Fultz
Dragan Bender
Brandon Ingram
Jahlil Okafor
Mario Hezonja
Jabari Parker
Dante Exum
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Anthony Bennett

2#1s, 2#2s, 1#3, 2#4s, 3#5s. All massive busts. All in the top 5. All in the last 5 years.

I will take the 21 year old that has proven he can be a star in the league before a top 5 pick any day. Even at the top of the draft, it's still a roll of the dice.

Bit pedantic, but dunno that Ingram fits here. He’s averaging 18/5/3 at the moment, and has been killing it as of late. Pains me to
admit it

yeah and Parker blew out his knees.  And frankly of the rest only Fultz and Okafor were expected to do great things.  If the larger point is that many years there is crap in the top 5 then sure that is correct but if the point is that the surefire prospects crap out a lot, well that just isn't true all that much. It happens like Okafor but he is the exception and not the rule

This isn't true. It may be true now. It may be true in hindsight. But before each of their drafts, there were huge things expected from each and every one of these prospects. And that is where we are right now, before the draft.

As an aside and not a response to your post Moranis, I have no idea why someone would use college stats to try to state how good an NBA propect someone is. Those stats do not translate to NBA success. Never has.

Zeller wasn't even a lock for the top 5 and that is after his sophomore year.  There were real questions about his physical measurables and his defense.  He wasn't viewed anywhere near someone like Okafor. The inverse was true of Len (who like Bender) was considered to be very raw and not very polished but had the physical tools to be very good if he developed properly.  Givony over at draft Express pretty clearly said Len was a work in progress in all his draft write ups.  Again that isn't an Okafor level if prospect (and as I said Bender was thought of similarly).  Exum was dubbed his drafts biggest wildcard (not exactly a ringing endorsement). He then blew out his knee so who knows what might have been.  Hezonja like Bender and Len was thought to have the physical tools but was also incredibly raw and inconsistent.  He also was projected as a poor defender with an attitude problem.  Again not a ringing endorsement.  Bennett was a huge reach by the Cavs.  Most mocks had him in the back half of the top 10 entering the draft for all the reasons that he ended up failing for.

Ingram doesn't belong on that list.  He has actually been pretty good and is still pretty young.  As I mentioned previously Parker blew out his knees. Not fair to judge him as a failure given his injuries. Okafor and Fultz really were the two guys thought of can't miss that missed and Fultz's failures thus far may be injury related.  The reality is there really aren't many can't miss draft picks that end up missing (when an injury isn't in play).

[gpap]

Probably not.

Williamson's body type is a bit alarming.

He's only 6'6 but very wide. Tatum definitely has the perfect physical tools of a successful NBA player.

Zion is not the better "prospect" and Tatum is past the prospect level.

He's working his way to being an established NBA talent. Needs some work, however.

[celticsclay]

So many can’t miss prospects don’t pan out. Look at the 76ers. Okafor, fultz and noel. If noel was not hurt he would have been number 1 pick.

[gouki88]

So many can’t miss prospects don’t pan out. Look at the 76ers. Okafor, fultz and noel. If noel was not hurt he would have been number 1 pick.

I dunno, Zion doesn't really fit the mold of any of these guys. He's a once in a generation type athlete.

Plus, his defensive instincts are really solid, and he picks good shots to take.