When can we say that Ainge had a terrible offseason?

[LarBrd33]

Guys... how can you dismiss what BillfromBoston said.   What exactly is the "terrible offseason" stance based on?  The fact that we didn't make a mistake like New Orleans and vastly overpay for a vastly overrated James Posey?   I don't get it at all...   Who exactly did we miss out on?   Ainge was right to hold off.  He was right to give the Patrick O'Bryant thing a chance.   He was right to assume that there would be buyouts and waivers after a hectic deadline.  He was right not to get tied up for 4-5 years paying James Posey.   

And if I'm not mistaken... we'd be a contender for the title regardless of whether or not we signed Mikki and Marbury. 

[wdleehi]

The offseason was not good.  No one that was added had trade value.  It was a bench of projects.


Now, we hope they get lucky with Marbury (loads of talent that has translated in lossing) and Moore (a 4th/5th big man) being bought out. 



How many title repeaters can you remember using this strategy when they repeated?

[Steve Weinman]

Danny doing his KG impression after signing Moore and on the verge of signing Marbury:

What you gonna say now?!  What you gon-na say NOW?

I think it's a little premature.  While I'm optimistic about both players, they could both be busts.  Furthermore it doesn't change two facts:

1) This isn't the offseason.  So Danny still had a bad offseason. 

2) It was still a terrible risk.  There's no way Danny could guarantee that Marbury and Moore were going to be available.  When you have three aging superstars, you don't roll the dice that buyouts will work out in your favor and risk not being the best you can be in a given year. 

Quite true. I find the contention that this is "all part of a plan" patently absurd and extremely laughable.

But we're interrupting a record moment of hyperbole on this board.

If you can't understand the nuances of strategic planning for an NBA executive, its your understanding of team management that is absurd and laughable.

I'm sorry - don't mean to be harsh - but you are always so conceited about your viewpoint on this matter and its just completely wrong - its not even up for debate - this is how team management works.

Let's be careful here - no need to make it personal.  And because there are two such schools of thought on the matter - it seems unfair to make any decrees of "completely wrong."  Seems to me as though this particular issue will always be "up for debate."  Perhaps not if we repeat...and perhaps the debates will continue anyway.

I understand both schools of thought, but I was less than thrilled with the way things went over the summer.  It certainly seems the Celtics are better now than they were five or six days ago, but how the rest of this season plays out remains to be seen - as well as the next three or four seasons and offseasons, especially considering some of the multi-year plan theorizing.

Danny had a fantastic 2007-08 campaign, and as a fan (short for fanatic), I'm inclined to be a believer going forward.  As I've said about Stephon Marbury as well, I'd much rather be happy in June than have my own frustrations from the summer come to fruition for the sake of being right.  But I certainly understand where CoachBo stands on this, and the idea there's no debate to be had seems a bit of a stretch to me as well.

-sw

[Redz]

How many title repeaters can you remember using this strategy when they repeated?

None, but I also can't think of too many Title winners who were assembled as quickly as the Celts were with such a Top heavy salary and a bunch of youngsters.

Also, the phenomenon of the mid season cut and sign deals with decent players is fairly new.

[BballTim]

The offseason was not good.  No one that was added had trade value.  It was a bench of projects.


Now, we hope they get lucky with Marbury (loads of talent that has translated in lossing) and Moore (a 4th/5th big man) being bought out. 



How many title repeaters can you remember using this strategy when they repeated?

  What would you have put Marbury's chances of getting bought out by now last summer? 5-10% or 75-90%? This was hardly an unforeseen event. And buyouts haven't been a common occurrence in the past so the odds of it happening before now are slim.

[LarBrd33]

The offseason was not good.  No one that was added had trade value.  It was a bench of projects.


Now, we hope they get lucky with Marbury (loads of talent that has translated in lossing) and Moore (a 4th/5th big man) being bought out. 



How many title repeaters can you remember using this strategy when they repeated?

  What would you have put Marbury's chances of getting bought out by now last summer? 5-10% or 75-90%? This was hardly an unforeseen event. And buyouts haven't been a common occurrence in the past so the odds of it happening before now are slim.

We've been reading articles about it since before training camp.   Everyone new Marbury was getting bought out eventually.   

I'd say last year the Celtics had Sam Cassell in mind as soon as Elton Brand got injured.  This stuff isn't secret.

[Neurotic Guy]

I agree with the notion that 'off-season' has to include 'in-season' up to March 1, simply because off-season strategy is impacted by foresight through March 1. Accepting this logic, the net result of the 'off-season/ in-season' work of Danny in building the 2008-9 Celtics is:

Gain: JR Giddens, Bill Walker, Stephon Marbury, Mikki Moore

Loss: James Posey, Scott Pollard, PJ Brown, Sam Cassell

The net gain or net loss assessmentof player acquisitions/losses is open for debate and data still needs to be gathered before conclusions should be drawn.  On paper, it seems pretty close.

If this team were not the NBA champions, I might insist that a net gain would be necessary in order to repeat. However, logic stands that if the defending champs can sustain their talent level, they stand a decent chance of repeating -- and isn't a decent chance at repeating a good thing?  In addition, Ainge is also in position (better than us) to calculate into his thinking the improvement of current players.  I would contend that BBD, Rondo, Ray and Scal are all outperforming their own 2007-8 seasons, with no one I can point to with certainty that is declining.  Overall, I'd take today's team over last year's, but this is of course a silly declaration as there is no way to be certain (and it's probably quite close).

All said, my opinion is that Danny's work over the last year was competent, not earth-shattering, but steady.  A careful performance from a guy who was known not long ago as 'Trader Danny'.   The Gambler must know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em, and I think he held wisely -- but time will tell.

[LarBrd33]

hey guys... 25 mil over 4 years for Posey is too much for an overrated intangibles guy who hits some three pointers.  In this economy I don't think the Celtics want to be paying a 35 year old Posey 7 million dollars.  New Orleans made their mistake and now they are regretting it.

So aside from that... what great free agent did we miss out on?  I think we did rather well.

[Jon]

I agree with the notion that 'off-season' has to include 'in-season' up to March 1, simply because off-season strategy is impacted by foresight through March 1. Accepting this logic, the net result of the 'off-season/ in-season' work of Danny in building the 2008-9 Celtics is:

Gain: JR Giddens, Bill Walker, Stephon Marbury, Mikki Moore

Loss: James Posey, Scott Pollard, PJ Brown, Sam Cassell

The net gain or net loss assessmentof player acquisitions/losses is open for debate and data still needs to be gathered before conclusions should be drawn.  On paper, it seems pretty close.

If this team were not the NBA champions, I might insist that a net gain would be necessary in order to repeat. However, logic stands that if the defending champs can sustain their talent level, they stand a decent chance of repeating -- and isn't a decent chance at repeating a good thing?  In addition, Ainge is also in position (better than us) to calculate into his thinking the improvement of current players.  I would contend that BBD, Rondo, Ray and Scal are all outperforming their own 2007-8 seasons, with no one I can point to with certainty that is declining.  Overall, I'd take today's team over last year's, but this is of course a silly declaration as there is no way to be certain (and it's probably quite close).

All said, my opinion is that Danny's work over the last year was competent, not earth-shattering, but steady.  A careful performance from a guy who was known not long ago as 'Trader Danny'.   The Gambler must know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em, and I think he held wisely -- but time will tell.

Have things arguably worked out for Danny?  Sure.  But I still think it was foolish that he went into the season with the team he had.  Did he get lucky Marbury and Moore were available?  Yes.  But you don't go rolling the dice on a buyout happening when you have 3 aging superstars with a narrow window of opportunity to win championships. 

[MattG12]

hey guys... 25 mil over 4 years for Posey is too much for an overrated intangibles guy who hits some three pointers.  In this economy I don't think the Celtics want to be paying a 35 year old Posey 7 million dollars.  New Orleans made their mistake and now they are regretting it.

So aside from that... what great free agent did we miss out on?  I think we did rather well.

The Patrick O'Bryant signing could have been Chris Andersen... Birdman isn't the best but he's definitely an improvement over POB and possibly over Mikki Moore.

We could have replaced Posey with Matt Barnes. Instead we got nothing to replace Posey.

Sure these things wouldn't have been great signings that put us over the edge, but they would have been better moves than what we did do nevertheless.

[wdleehi]

The offseason was not good.  No one that was added had trade value.  It was a bench of projects.


Now, we hope they get lucky with Marbury (loads of talent that has translated in lossing) and Moore (a 4th/5th big man) being bought out. 



How many title repeaters can you remember using this strategy when they repeated?

  What would you have put Marbury's chances of getting bought out by now last summer? 5-10% or 75-90%? This was hardly an unforeseen event. And buyouts haven't been a common occurrence in the past so the odds of it happening before now are slim.

We've been reading articles about it since before training camp.   Everyone new Marbury was getting bought out eventually.   

I'd say last year the Celtics had Sam Cassell in mind as soon as Elton Brand got injured.  This stuff isn't secret.

So the Celtics went into the season hoping to get Marbury?  Not a chance.  If that was the case, they never resign Cassell. 

[cordialb]

Answer: Get over it.

Ainge pulled off the biggest GM miracle ever the previous offseason, and its impossible to speculate what would of happened if this or that would of happened this offseason instead. We dont know all the details, or what the effects of decision A or B or C would of made.

Even if a different decision would of left us in a slightly better position this year, who is to say that it would not of crippled us for future years?

That said, i'm sure Ainge himself would be able to add things in this thread that he would of tried different.  But thats the advantage of looking at things in hindsight.  Every decision is a calculated roll of the dice, and sometimes things pan out and sometimes not.  His decisions are made even more difficult from the salaries the Big 3 command, leaving meager scraps to find diamonds in the rough or successful gamble to pan out to surround them with.

In the end scheme of things, all we can base judgement on is final results.  Last year we were champions and this year, we are one of a handful of teams that are in contention.

I really dont mean to come across as harsh, possibly blame it on me just waking up after a nap with my sick daughter.  = p  But i just cringe when i see this thread at the top b/c i'm a celticsblogaholic. 

[CoachBo]

First of all, Danny's not worried about anything beyond 2011. If he is, he's a fool - despite what you read on here. There are clearly two schools of thought on this deal, one the RealGM point of view, and one that Weedy articulated rather nicely above. I personally find the first laughable to the point of hysteria, but that's my point of view.

Bottom line: Ainge added absolutely nothing of use to this club in the off-season. Period. He's trying to chase a title on a shoestring; the "planning for 2012" stuff is Internet fantasy of the first order. Maybe that's his fault; maybe it isn't. But in the interim, he's added a couple of pieces as best he can. Good for him.

Beyond that, this discussion has been rendered rather moot by the two signings. Time to sit back and see how the new pieces fit.

But if there's no repeat, the topic will be back. I guarantee it.

[CoachBo]

I missed the "Ainge went into the season planning for Marbury" posts in the thread.

 

[Chief]

I think Danny will make some small moves. Wyc realizes the team needs a few pieces, so I think it will get done. If Danny makes a few small moves and we still lose, then he gets a pass from me. 

Danny here is your pass.




Good job sir. Better than I even thought.