Chad Ford's current 1st rd is below. We currently are at #9, #22-24 (current 3 way tie between LAC, SA, & ATL), and #31.
9... He has with Johnson, but Cauley-Stein is projected at #16 and will be hard to pass up.
22-24... Hollis-Jefferson, Portis, and Guven. Walker and Johnson will be in the mix too.
31... Next 5 are Baker, Booker, Irvin, Martin, and Garcia. Garcia has to be the guy here. He's probably an easy lottery pick if he were playing in the states. A good candidate for a draft and stash guy given his talent and we already would have two other rookies on the roster to go with what would currently be three 2nd year guys (Smart, Johnson, & Powell)
We are three weeks into the college basketball season, and it's time for our first Big Board update of the season. Three weeks translates into six or seven games for most of the players on the board. That's a small sample size.
The trends that are beginning to emerge -- concerning playing time and roles -- are more telling. On a few teams, such as Kansas, they are significantly different than what we expected earlier.
So far, the top of our Big Board has produced according to expectations. There are no changes in the top four. But after that there are some significant changes, including two freshmen rising who weren't on our original Big Board. We've also updated our Top 100 to reflect the progress of players beyond our Top 30.
Remember, the Top 100 is a reflection of the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player's relative value in the draft. Our Big Board is a more detailed look at the top 30 players (essentially the first round of the NBA draft) in our Top 100. The Big Board tracks player movement and stock fluctuation while giving you the latest intel from NBA scouts.
So here it is ... our third Big Board of 2015.
-- Chad Ford
1. Jahlil Okafor
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-11
WT: 275
POS: C
2014-15 STATS
PPG 17.7
RPG 7.9
BPG 1.6
Okafor has definitely lived up to the hype early in the season. He's shooting 74 percent from the field at the rim and an impressive 41 percent on his 2-point jumpers. His footwork, soft hands and poise in the paint have all been extraordinary. There hasn't been a freshman big man this polished offensively in a while. One small area of concern is on the defensive side of things. Okafor's 14.5 rebounding rate is solid, but not elite. For someone so big and strong, he should be grabbing more boards. However, he remains the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. Mudiay and Towns (and possibly Porzingis) will give him a serious run, but for now he's on top of the Big Board of every NBA exec I spoke with.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay
COLLEGE: China
HT: 6-5
WT: 196
POS: PG
18.9 PPG | 6.6 RPG | 6.3 APG
There were serious questions among NBA scouts about how Mudiay would fare in China. So far the results have been very positive. Mudiay's numbers have been strong in his first nine games, and just as importantly, his team (Guangdong) has been winning when he's on the floor. The only real weakness right now is a pedestrian 32 percent from beyond the arc. An ankle injury has kept him out of action the past couple of weeks, but it's nothing serious -- his camp, understandably, is bringing him back slowly. There's very little question at this point that Mudiay is the best guard prospect in the draft. I don't think there's a close second. Where he goes in the draft will likely depend on who gets the top overall pick.
3. Karl-Anthony Towns
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 6-11
WT: 250
POS: C
2014-15 STATS
PPG 8
RPG 7.4
BPG 3
John Calipari's platoon system is artificially limiting Towns' minutes and stats. But when you dig a little deeper, he's having an extraordinary season -- especially on the defensive end. His 18.2 rebound rate is the best in the country among freshmen, and he's averaging an impressive 3 blocks per game in just under 19 minutes a game. While it will be hard for Towns to keep up with Okafor in sheer production, every scout who has seen Kentucky play this season has come to the same conclusion. Towns is not only the best player on UK right now but also a legit contender for the No. 1 pick.
4. Kristaps Porzingis
COLLEGE: Latvia
HT: 6-11
WT: 220
POS: PF
10 PPG | 5 RPG | 1.4 BPG
Porzingis was everyone's upside guy last season. This season, he's getting even more minutes for Sevilla. For a 19-year-old, he's putting up impressive stats in Spain in Eurocup play. He's shooting 52 percent from the field and 54 percent from 3-point range. His shooting percentages are down in ACB (Spanish League) play, but everyone from NBA scouts to Americans who have had the chance to play with him or against him are telling me the same thing: Porzingis is for real. At this point, the top four in the draft are looking very solid. We might not have the order figured out yet, but a combination of Okafor, Mudiay, Towns and Porzingis have a pretty solid grip on the top four slots.
5. Kevon Looney
COLLEGE: UCLA
HT: 6-10
WT: 210
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 14.1
RPG 11
BPG 1.7
Looney is off to a great start at UCLA. He has especially stood out as an offensive rebounder. He has a 15.6 offensive rebounding rate. He uses his long arms and terrific motor to constantly crash the boards. He's taking 65 percent of his shots at the rim and is converting 58 percent of them. What Looney needs to improve is his perimeter game. Billed as a versatile player coming out of high school, he has yet to find his range on his jumper. He's shooting just 28.6 on his 2-point jumpers and 22 percent on his 3s. Even if that jump shot never comes, his size and length still project him as a potential elite 4 in the NBA.
6. Justise Winslow
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-6
WT: 222
POS: SF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 13
RPG 4.6
APG 2
Winslow has generated a lot of love from scouts the past few weeks with his combination of toughness and leadership on the court. He appears to be the soul of the Blue Devils, and the comparisons to a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist appear apt. But not everything is rosy for Winslow right now. Everyone is focusing on his 39 percent shooting from beyond the arc. That's a much better number than scouts were expecting. But his 2-point jump shooting has been awful. Twenty-one percent of his shots have been 2-point jumpers, and he's shooting just 15 percent on them. There is major room improvement there.
7. Myles Turner
COLLEGE: Texas
HT: 7-0
WT: 240
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 11.2
RPG 6.7
BPG 3
Six games into the season, Turner is second among all freshmen in PER and second overall among players on our Big Board with a fantastic 38.31. That's come as a major surprise to scouts who expected Turner to be the biggest work in progress among the elite freshmen. A huge 25-point, 10-rebound performance against St. Francis (11-for-12 from the field) was his standout game. Against better competition like Iowa, Cal and UConn, he hasn't been nearly as dominant offensively, so take the early sample size with a grain of salt. Still, there is one thing he has done consistently, and that's block shots. He has also been a beast on the defensive glass. Turner is averaging 3 blocks in just under 20 minutes per game and has an impressive defensive rebounding rate of 26.2.
8. Mario Hezonja
COLLEGE: Croatia
HT: 6-7
WT: 200
POS: SF
5.3 PPG | 1.8 RPG | 1.3 APG in 13 MPG
Hezonja's biggest problem has been playing time, and so far it doesn't look as if any major minutes will be coming his way soon. He did get an uncharacteristically high 22 minutes against Milan on Nov. 28, posting an impressive 13 points and hitting a couple of 3s. We will see if his strong play will lead to more minutes. Scouts don't seem deterred, however, by Hezonja's inability to get in the game. He plays for an elite club in Europe, and whenever he does get the minutes, he tends to produce. Virtually every scout I spoke to thinks he will be a top-10 pick and will compete with Winslow, Kelly Oubre and Stanley Johnson to be the first wing off the board.
9. Stanley Johnson
COLLEGE: Arizona
HT: 6-7
WT: 237
POS: SF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 13.5
RPG 6.2
APG 1.2
Johnson won the MVP of the Maui Invitational last week. He hit huge free throws in the waning seconds of a close game against San Diego State on Wednesday, and it was clear he wanted the ball in his hands. He finished with a career-high 18 points, and nine of those points came from the line. While his overall numbers are solid, he has a long way to go as far as skill development is concerned; he's shooting just 41 percent from the field and 33 percent on 3s, while averaging 2.3 turnovers per game. There's no question that Johnson brings toughness and a certain fearlessness to the game. If his skills can ever catch up with his motor and leadership qualities, he's going to be a great NBA player. But the skills part still needs a lot of work.
10. D'Angelo Russell
COLLEGE: Ohio State
HT: 6-5
WT: 176
POS: SG
2014-15 STATS
PPG 18
RPG 4
APG 5.4
Okafor and Towns are two of the freshmen who are off to red-hot starts, but they aren't the only ones. Russell has been a dominant scorer and playmaker for the Buckeyes and is posting a whopping 34.22 PER in his first five games for OSU. He has coach Thad Matta to thank for some of that. Russell is posting a whopping 25.6 usage rate -- he clearly has the green light from Matta. Russell's 24.3 assist rate is what really excites scouts. This draft is thin on point guards. If Russell can prove to be both a scorer and passer this season, he's a lock to go in the top 10.
11. Chris McCullough
COLLEGE: Syracuse
HT: 6-9
WT: 200
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 15.3
RPG 8.5
BPG 2.5
He wasn't mentioned before the season in the same breath as Okafor, Towns, Oubre, Johnson or Winslow, but McCullough is having as good a season as all of them. It's not every day that you find a 19-year-old athletic big man with a crazy 7-foot-3 wingspan who can be effective both at the rim and from the perimeter. Forty-one percent of McCullough's shots have been from the perimeter and he's hitting a very respectable 42 percent of them. At the rim, he's been better, shooting 71 percent. If he can continue his hot play all season, he's a likely top-10 pick.
12. Cliff Alexander
COLLEGE: Kansas
HT: 6-8
WT: 251
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 9.7
RPG 6
BPG 1.5
Alexander is off to a very nice start for Kansas. He's been coming off the bench for the Jayhawks, but when he's in the game, he's had a consistent impact. He has an impressive 30 PER and has also been impressive on the boards. Alexander slips in the ratings a bit because his struggles to finish against Kentucky really alarmed scouts. He's a bit undersized for his position, and the Kentucky game made that weakness glaring. By midseason, I expect Alexander to be in the starting lineup and producing again. When he does, he'll probably move up a spot or two.
13. Kelly Oubre
COLLEGE: Kansas
HT: 6-7
WT: 204
POS: SF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 2.2
RPG 1.7
APG .5
Oubre is just a mess right now. He wowed scouts at camps over the summer. Based on his profile of size, elite athleticism and skill, he projected as a top-five pick in the draft. But he has struggled to get on the floor for Kansas, and when he does get minutes he looks absolutely lost -- especially on the defensive end. You can criticize Bill Self for not letting Oubre figure it out, but he's been so bad, and the Jayhawks aren't necessarily a dominant team, so you understand why he doesn't get the minutes. If Oubre figures it out, he'll fly right back up the draft board and be in the mix for a spot somewhere between Nos. 5 and 10. The talent in undeniable. But it's looking more and more as if he'll take longer than expected to show off that potential.
14. R.J. Hunter
COLLEGE: Georgia St
HT: 6-5
WT: 185
POS: SG
2014-15 STATS
PPG 22.9
RPG 3.4
APG 3.7
Hunter continues to build his case as the best mid-major prospect in the country. His scoring output has continued to increase -- even as his 3-point shooting has fallen off slightly. He's also shown an adept handle and has been racking up the steals. A number of scouts think those Klay Thompson comparisons are dead-on. Thompson averaged 21.6 PPG and 3.7 APG, while attempting and making roughly the same number of 3-pointers, his junior season at Washington State.
15. Montrezl Harrell
COLLEGE: Louisville
HT: 6-7
WT: 243
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 17.4
RPG 8.8
BPG .8
Harrell drew a lot of buzz when he went 3-for-3 from behind the arc in his first game this season. The thought was that Harrell had spent the summer improving his jumper and would be unstoppable now that he could stretch the floor. It hasn't quite worked out that way. Since opening night, Harrell is 0-for-6 from 3-point range. The good news is that he has improved his jump shot. He shot 37 percent on his 2s last season and is up to 41 percent this season.
16. Willie Cauley-Stein
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 7-0
WT: 240
POS: C
2014-15 STATS
PPG 8.7
RPG 6
BPG 1.4
Kentucky actually has a whopping four players with a 30 or higher PER after seven games. No other team in the NCAA is even close. Cauley-Stein is one of those four, despite posting the lowest usage rate of any of the players on our Big Board. Cauley-Stein continues to be efficient doing what he does well -- rebounding, blocking shots and scoring at the rim. At this point, no one thinks he's going to amount to much offensively, but he has the potential to be a defensive monster in the NBA.
17. Caris LeVert
COLLEGE: Michigan
HT: 6-6
WT: 185
POS: SF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 17.5
RPG 6.2
APG 4.7
LeVert continues to improve at a remarkable rate. In roughly the same number of minutes per game as last season, he's averaging 4.5 more points per game, two extra assists and rebounds per game, and an extra steal per game while shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc (up 10 percent from last season). Even his free throw percentage has improved from 77 percent to 86 percent. LeVert might be the best passing wing in the country right now. To top it off, he's just 20 -- a full year younger than most other juniors in the country.
18. Frank Kaminsky
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
HT: 7-0
WT: 234
POS: C
2014-15 STATS
PPG 16.6
RPG 8.7
BPG 2.3
Scouts have tried just about every argument possible to write off Kaminsky -- but he's making their job really hard. With the exception of one poor performance against Georgetown in the Bahamas, where 300-pounder Josh Smith just manhandled Kaminsky, he's been on fire -- especially as a shooter. Kaminsky is shooting 41 percent form 3-point range while averaging nearly 9 rebounds per game and an impressive 2.3 BPG. His 36.6 PER is fourth-highest among the players on our Big Board. He should be the first senior off the board and is a likely top-20 pick as a potential stretch 4 at the next level.
19. Jakob Poeltl
COLLEGE: Utah
HT: 7-0
WT: 230
POS: C
2014-15 STATS
PPG 12
RPG 9.3
BPG 3
Poeltl has emerged as this year's draft sleeper. Through the first six games of the season, the Austrian native ranks fourth in all of college basketball with a crazy 39.87 PER. He has the highest PER of any player on our Big Board. He has a terrific 21.9 rebound rate -- the highest of any player on our Board. He's big, long and athletic; he blocks shots and shows a lot of skill in the low post and on his midrange jumper. He had 12 rebounds and seven blocked shots against San Diego State and an impressive 25 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks against North Dakota on Friday. A large contingent of scouts are heading to the Utah-Wichita State game Wednesday. If Poeltl plays big there, he'll rocket up this board. Given his size and potential, there's no reason he couldn't be a top-10 pick by the end of the season.
20. Terry Rozier
COLLEGE: Louisville
HT: 6-2
WT: 190
POS: PG
2014-15 STATS
PPG 13.6
RPG 5.8
APG 2.2
With Russ Smith off to the NBA, Rozier's offensive numbers have increased. He has doubled his point production and proved to be a terrific rebounder for a player his size. However, question marks remain. He's shooting a paltry 18 percent from beyond the arc, and his assist numbers aren't what scouts want them to be for Rozier to make his case as a point guard. He's shown toughness, but he's been a slight letdown after his impressive play over the summer.
21. Sam Dekker
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
HT: 6-9
WT: 230
POS: SF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 12.7
RPG 3.6
APG 1.3
Dekker's stats are never going to wow you. But his toughness and versatility make him an intriguing prospect. One aspect of his game that continues to draw question marks, however, is Dekker's shooting. He appeared to be a lights-out shooter as a freshman, but he's down to 29 percent on 3s and just 33 percent on 2s. That number has to increase if Dekker is going to ever find his way into the lottery.
22. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
COLLEGE: Arizona
HT: 6-7
WT: 220
POS: SF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 13.8
RPG 6.3
APG 1.7
Hollis-Jefferson has so many things going for him. He is long and crazy athletic, has a nose for the ball, and does all the little things to help his team win. He just can't shoot. The discrepancies couldn't be more stark. He's shooting 88 percent at the rim, 31 percent on 2-point jumpers, and 17 percent from behind the arc. Perhaps Hollis-Jefferson can carve out a Gerald Wallace-type career in the NBA, but without a reliable jump shot, Hollis-Jefferson will have a hard time cracking the lottery.
23. Bobby Portis
COLLEGE: Arkansas
HT: 6-11
WT: 231
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 14.5
RPG 6.2
BPG 1.5
Portis is playing well enough early on, but there's been a bit of disappointment because he's putting up virtually identical numbers as last season. Scouts expected a bigger improvement after a strong summer. If Portis has indeed maxed out, he could slide a bit as we get closer to the draft. He was ranked in the mid-first round based on the hope that he would show marked improvement after a solid freshman campaign. If solid is all he is, he could fall into the second round.
24. Egemen Guven
COLLEGE: Turkey
HT: 6-9
WT: 210
POS: PF
Guven was the MVP of the European Under-18 Championships this summer, but he's having a hard time getting any real playing time right now. He's played in just two Eurocup games this season for his Turkish team, Pinar Karsiyaka, and has yet to score a basket or grab a rebound in a total of 14 minutes on the floor. Scouts aren't discouraged, however. They loved him this summer and didn't expect him to get big minutes this season. He's an upside pick.
25. Chris Walker
COLLEGE: Florida
HT: 6-10
WT: 220
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 5
RPG 4.5
BPG .8
Walker sat out the first two games of the season with a suspension and has been averaging about 17 minutes per game since returning. He's off to a very slow start offensively -- shooting a paltry 37 percent from the field. The only real bright spot for Walker early has been some solid rebounding numbers. Again, scouts are willing to be patient. Walker has incredible upside thanks to his elite athletic abilities. But he has to start showing some semblance of an offensive game beyond dunking the basketball.
26. Dakari Johnson
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 7-0
WT: 255
POS: C
2014-15 STATS
PPG 10.3
RPG 7.1
BPG 1.4
Johnson actually has the highest PER of any player on the Kentucky team, and one of the best PERs in the country. He has been especially effective on the boards and is surprisingly ranked third on the team in points per game. There's very little that's sexy about Johnson. But he's big and he rebounds, and he projects as a solid backup big man at the next level.
27. Justin Jackson
COLLEGE: North Carolina
HT: 6-8
WT: 200
POS: SF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 11.7
RPG 2.8
APG 2.3
Jackson is off to a solid start for the Tar Heels. While he has yet to find his range from beyond the arc, he's been especially lethal as a midrange shooter. He's shooting a crazy 69 percent on 2-point jumpers. Having a great midrange game is a valuable commodity in the NBA and should continue to keep Jackson in the discussion all season as a potential first-round pick.
28. Delon Wright
COLLEGE: Utah
HT: 6-5
WT: 178
POS: PG
2014-15 STATS
PPG 15.3
RPG 4.5
APG 4.8
Wright is off to a terrific start to his senior season. He's posting the third-highest PER on our Big Board at 37.04, but the key for him is a dramatic improvement in his 3-point shooting (up from 22 percent last season to 55 percent) and a drop from 2.5 turnovers per game to 1.5. With the draft devoid of legit point guard prospects, Wright could see his stock steadily rise all season if he can keep playing at this level.
29. Tyus Jones
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-1
WT: 170
POS: PG
2014-15 STATS
PPG 8.9
RPG 2.9
APG 6
Jones is sporting an incredible 6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in his first seven games at Duke. He is, by far, the best pass-first point guard prospect in the draft. His issue is shooting the ball from deep. While he's shooting a respectable 46 percent on 2-point jumpers, his 3-point percentage has fallen to 32 percent. Since 54 percent of all his shots are 3s, that number needs to go up significantly.
30. Trey Lyles
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 6-10
WT: 235
POS: PF
2014-15 STATS
PPG 8
RPG 4.9
BPG .3
Next to Towns, Lyles might be the most skilled offensive player on the Wildcats. What he lacks in elite athletic ability he makes up for with a high basketball IQ that few freshmen possess. One area of concern, however, is his jump shot. He's shooting just 19 percent from beyond the arc right now.
Next five in: Ron Baker, G, Jr., Wichita State; Devin Booker, SG, Fr., Kentucky; Zak Irvin, G/F, So., Michigan; Jarell Martin, F, So., LSU; Marc Garcia, SG, 19 years old, Spain.
Topic: Obligatory "Clips Record Thus Far" Thread (Read 5198 times)