What's not to like about that Jermaine O'Neal trade, Who? They get rid of a declining big man that isn't going to lead them anywhere but mediocrity, they get another first round pick, and they get salary relief. It's an absolute no-brainer, to me.
You don't think they're in mediocrity now?
With Jermaine O Neal healthy they were a top 10 defensive club (just). With his post game they had one of the most diverse offenses in the league (with Tinsley healthy). Offensively they had a post presence, shooters, an emerging wing in Granger, a great complementary wing in Dunleavy putting up 18ppg, and a playmaking point guard pulling the strings. This wasn't a bad team. This was an injured team (albeit a consistently injured team).
Without Jermaine they were a 16-20th defensive ball club. Without Jermaine they were predictable and easy to stifle offensively. That was a bad team. With Jermaine they were dangerous and capable of causing upsets come playoff time.
FinancialsWorst case scenario Jermaine doesn't get healthy next season. Then he's an expiring contract at $22mil. Financially the Pacers didn't move any bad contracts in this deal, they also didn't move any troublesome contracts in the Blazers deal. Their financial position hasn't changed considerably. They got $12-13mil in expiring contracts/cap space and took on an extra $8.5mil for a year on TJ Ford's deal. I heard Hollinger talk about $16mil in cap space, heck at least $10 mil of that is going to Danny Granger. $6mil, that's MLE money. The Pacers still have all their bad contracts, the contracts that actually limit their flexibility - Tinsley, Murphy, Dunleavy, Daniels (about to expire anyway - team option).
Now let's see with Jermaine - Jermaine O Neal wipes out most of that cap space, leaving Indy 4mil below the cap (over the cap with Granger's extension), but they have a monster 22mil coming off the books the next season. That's fantastic. That's actual usable cap space. That's a real 16mil with nobody to sign that they can use to add talent. The other route, trading Jermaine, and with Danny signed at $10mil that figure is only $6mil just like it was the season before because Danny+Ford+pay increases=Jermaine. Without Jermaine versus with Jermaine in two years ... cap space is better with Jermaine.
Keeping Jermaine also gives them that huge expiring contract to deal
The cap space isn't any better. They have more cap flexibility by letting Jermaine expire and having enough money to chase a top free agent instead of splitting it between Ford and another just above MLE player. Two solid players or a star? Which does the team need more to build a championship side? Star right?
Still Mediocre - Still Not Rebuilding In terms of talent. Let's look where they are. The Pacers won 36 games last season. Jermaine only played 40, and only 15 of them were at an All-Star level, the rest weren't much. Tinsley played only 39 games and he was limited through the final few weeks while playing. Still they won 36 games.
They have two good scorers on the wing in Dunleavy and Granger. TJ Ford is a very good point guard who'll run the team well and get the most of out their talents. Then they have Foster, Murphy, Hibbert in the paint. Also Jarret Jack, Daniels, and Brandon Rush.
Does that team win less or more games than the 36 win team last season? I think slightly more. There's more balance and better perimeter play. Likely less injuries and more consistent play likely to emerge from that.
Let's look at the team again .... where are they getting worse in the next three years? They're mostly guys in their prime and a couple improving. They're not getting worse. They're staying pretty much the same stuck in their 36-44 win bracket over the next few years. Still getting low lottery picks or just getting into the playoffs while getting eliminated in 4-5 games.
They're not rebuilding. They made a lateral move that makes them worse
Only now they have no big man. No defensive presence. No low post game.
Where's the development coming from? I'll tell you where. It's coming in 3 years time when Dunleavy, Murphy and Tinsley come off the books. Until then all they're doing is wasting draft opportunities by getting picks unnecessarily high.
The team with Jermaine has a chance of starting that rebuilding a year earlier because of the added cap space.
The team with Jermaine has a chance of making mild noise in the playoffs if they get there.
How are they better off?
