The pick was a dead cost the minute we traded it. Don't see whether Cleveland ends up with the 1st pick or the 9th pick that it effects the grade on this trade.
I don't agree. That's like saying that Isaiah's injury or Crowder's disappointing performance in Cleveland doesn't effect the grade because those things happened post-trade.
If the pick tonight ends up being #1 and that guy ends up being the next Lebron or Bird, then history will rightfully crucify the Celtics for making the deal. It's not a second or third order impact, this is directly related to this deal.
You can disagree all you want, but that's not how a business looks at things. If you made an accurate assessment at the time, you move on. They rightfully graded the odds of Brooklyn drafting a LeBron/ Bird as very small. Right now they have a 2.8% chance of getting the #1 pick, and the odds of Ayton/Doncic becoming LeBron/Bird are small on top of that.
This is more like getting a bad beat at the poker table- there's nothing you can do about bad luck.
Logic fail. You can't talk about a 2.8% chance NOW as a "bad beat" when most people thought that pick was a virtual lock for a top 5 spot. Logically you can't have it both ways. If you factor in the 2.8% now then the actual pick slot and player selected follows. If you don't consider the pick probability then this was always going to be valued as a top 5 pick. And in that regard Ainge traded away a top pick in what has appeared for the last two years to be a very talented draft, especially at the top of it.
Projection has always been part of this evaluation. Otherwise, Ainge traded a 28 year old guy for the exact same production from a 25 year old guy (stats don't lie), plus a solid starter plus a likely top 5 pick. That trade sucks on the face of it.
Except then you take into account Kyrie's ability to grow his game, IT's likelihood to maintain that level (not), IT's extra year of higher salary due to his impending contract (though over 2 years that Kyrie would cost more), Crowder's replacement already being on the team, needing to free up minutes for young players and the likely position of that draft pick. That's all based on projection, not on the information at that very moment. What none of us could foresee - including Cleveland apparently - was the severity of IT's injury and how that would impact him long into the season.
And as much as fans here don't like it, if that selection becomes a premier-type pick then it will always be "the Celtics traded away the rights to get that guy" much like we've seen the constant references around here about Tatum and Brown could/should be in Nets uniforms. But since it won't - the Cavs are picking 8th - then it's a different evaluation.