"Weak" draft: Lessons of 2006

[Inside-Out]

The last draft where I remember the whole talk was about how terrible it was, how there was no big talent, all role players, no stars, was 2006.  For some reason, Portland decided to use that supposed "weak" draft to build a team and was wheeling and dealing.  Danny traded out so save one year of Raef's contract rather than try to build through it.  He grabbed a young kid by buying a late pick, but nobody expected much of it, usual hype that accompanies every one of Danny's picks aside.

Turns out, it wasn't so bad after all.

Here's a little 15-player roster built from players selected in that draft (slight fudging of positions):

PG:  Rondo, Kyle Lowry, Jordan Farmar, Randy Foye

SG:  Brandon Roy, Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, Daniel Gibson

SF:  Rudy Gay, JJ Reddick

PF:  Lamarcus Aldridge, Ty Thomas, Paul Milsap

C:   A. Bargnani, Ryan Hollins


Not too bad for a "weak" draft, huh?


Danny used a lottery pick to improve the cap position that year, but also bought a later pick (Rondo at 21).  Considering the team's current cap position is pretty good, that there are few options for bringing in top FA's (or top FA's available at all), the team has lots of space on the roster, and that only 10 guys really play anyway, I suggest the following:

Get all the picks possible in this draft.  Buy, swap, whatever.  Let's have three, four rookies next year and send them all to Portland or whatever.  They won't play next year anyway, there's room on the roster for projects, and we have a near-desperate need to build assets for the future.

There might not be the next KG in this draft, but there might be another Paul Milsap, possibly even an Aldridge.  Maybe a Ronnie Brewer or Kyle Lowry-level talent.  Perhaps not super-duper-stars, but all-star talent none the less.

Let's hope for a very active (and expensive) draft night!

Thoughts?

[Celtic#9]

Agrred for the most part. The part about drafting in a low spot in a "weak draft" is you want to pick players who can come in and contrtibute. By saying it is weak they are saying the would be mid 1st rounders in a normal draft. Maybe high lottery picks. How many player that were mid 1st or 2nd rounders are good players? TONS! What if Manu was in this this draft? He was viewed as a "weak" pick. He went 2nd to last in his draft. What if there were 5 players like Paul Millsap? He was a 2nd rounder in a "weak" draft. It is too soon to tell that it is a "weak" draft. For me, you can't call it weak till they underpreform.

[nickagneta]

Actually I think the last draft classified by most before it as weak was the 2009 "There's Blake griffin and no one else" NBA Draft. Now some members of that draft have turned out pretty very good Griffin and Evans and Curry and there are a few decent role players but that draft was fairly weak in retrospect.

Even that 2006 draft isn't that good. Milsap and Aldridge are the only decent big men and have either even been to an All-Star game 5 years later? Except for Rondo and Roy that was a very very draft as well and now Roy might be all done because of bad knees.

I don't know. The prognosticators usually get things like the level of good talent in a draft fairly close to what it actually is when viewing the overall talent before hand and then looking at it 2-5 years down the road.

I don't expect much coming out of this year's draft.

[Inside-Out]

Actually I think the last draft classified by most before it as weak was the 2009 "There's Blake griffin and no one else" NBA Draft. Now some members of that draft have turned out pretty very good Griffin and Evans and Curry and there are a few decent role players but that draft was fairly weak in retrospect.

Even that 2006 draft isn't that good. Milsap and Aldridge are the only decent big men and have either even been to an All-Star game 5 years later? Except for Rondo and Roy that was a very very draft as well and now Roy might be all done because of bad knees.

I don't know. The prognosticators usually get things like the level of good talent in a draft fairly close to what it actually is when viewing the overall talent before hand and then looking at it 2-5 years down the road.

I don't expect much coming out of this year's draft.

True about 2009 as well.  I think it's a bit early to really assess that one, though, but there are about 10-15 players from that year as well that look like keepers.

Gerald Henderson
Harden
Rubio?
T.Hansborough
Jrue Holiday
Darren Collison
Taj Gibson
Casspi
Toney Douglas
DeJauan Blair
Budinger

With 3 more years, there might be a couple more all-stars and bordline all-star players from this 2009 list.

The 2006'ers are just coming into their priime at this moment, so it is possible (and likely) that there is an all-star or two yet to be named from that draft.  Lowry, for example, just secured a starting job at the deadline, and McHale is likely to let em' play a bit more than Adelman, so he's likely to get a good bump.  Rudy Gay.  Rondo.  Roy (before, never again).  Aldridge.  Bargnani.  Milsap.  

That's 8 all-starish-level players by my count, about as good as any other draft by my guess.  Looking at the list, I can see 2009 having similar talent.  Interesting that both lists are guard-heavy...  Fortunately for us, they say this year's crop is PF heavy, which makes me very, very happy.

In any case, the way the odds look to me, if Danny can pick up two more 1sts (higher than 25, at least one) to have 3, there's a pretty decent chance that one of them will pan out to be at least a solid 3rd banana, and if we already have Rondo and JGreen, that'd be a decent backup plan OR supplement to the big free agency summer of '12.  

Either way, if there are sellers, the C's would be wise to buy.

That goes for 2nd rounder's, too...like Erden, a Euro to bring over later, or something like that...

[cman88]

I think by weak draft they mean that if you are a team looking for your Derrick rose or blake griffin superstar to build around...you're out of luck..

but, there should be some pretty good roleplayers in this draft. and thats all we're looking for

[ManUp]

Superstar: 0

Allstar: 2(Rondo & Roy)

Fringe/Psudo-Allstar Caliber players: 3
(Gay, Aldridge, & Milsap)

Starter: 2 (A.Bargnani & K.Lowry)

Role Player/Top Rotation guys: 6
Jordan Farmar, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, JJ Reddick, & Ty Thomas

Bench Warmer/specialists: 1(Daniel Gibson)

5 high caliber players, 2 starters, 6 role players, and a specialist. 13 out of 60, NBA players? Sounds weak as advertised to me.

[mgent]

Superstar: 0

Allstar: 2(Rondo & Roy)

Fringe/Psudo-Allstar Caliber players: 3
(Gay, Aldridge, & Milsap)

Starter: 2 (A.Bargnani & K.Lowry)

Role Player/Top Rotation guys: 6
Jordan Farmar, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, JJ Reddick, & Ty Thomas

Bench Warmer/specialists: 1(Daniel Gibson)

5 high caliber players, 2 starters, 6 role players, and a specialist. 13 out of 60, NBA players? Sounds weak as advertised to me.

Thabo Sefolosha is a starter and Powe is a great role player.

[ianboyextreme]

I think you make a great point about the 06' draft. One guy earlier said Rondo was simply an all star- I think being the best play maker in the league constitutes more than just all star status. But I definetly agree the celts should pick up 1 or 2 more first rounders.

[Fafnir]

Your good centers are Ryan Hollins and Bargs? 

[Fafnir]

Superstar: 0

Allstar: 2(Rondo & Roy)

Fringe/Psudo-Allstar Caliber players: 3
(Gay, Aldridge, & Milsap)

Starter: 2 (A.Bargnani & K.Lowry)

Role Player/Top Rotation guys: 6
Jordan Farmar, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, JJ Reddick, & Ty Thomas

Bench Warmer/specialists: 1(Daniel Gibson)

5 high caliber players, 2 starters, 6 role players, and a specialist. 13 out of 60, NBA players? Sounds weak as advertised to me.

Thabo Sefolosha is a starter and Powe is a great role player.

Was a great role player, was.

[KungPoweChicken]

It was a weak draft because there is still not one star player from it. I suppose one could make the argument for Rudy Gay being that guy, but even that's a stretch.

[KCattheStripe]

It was a weak draft because there is still not one star player from it. I suppose one could make the argument for Rudy Gay being that guy, but even that's a stretch.

Rajon Rondo: 3 time all star.

[gar]

Happen to agree. The fact that there is  not much star power in this draft is another way of saying that nobody jumps out; but you can be assured that there are good contributing NBA players in this draft. Just have to find them. The number of potential contributors is also fairly high making this task even harder. Will be a wild draft night. Think Danny should go for it.

Thanks for the insights on 2006.

[mgent]

Superstar: 0

Allstar: 2(Rondo & Roy)

Fringe/Psudo-Allstar Caliber players: 3
(Gay, Aldridge, & Milsap)

Starter: 2 (A.Bargnani & K.Lowry)

Role Player/Top Rotation guys: 6
Jordan Farmar, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, JJ Reddick, & Ty Thomas

Bench Warmer/specialists: 1(Daniel Gibson)

5 high caliber players, 2 starters, 6 role players, and a specialist. 13 out of 60, NBA players? Sounds weak as advertised to me.

Thabo Sefolosha is a starter and Powe is a great role player.

Was a great role player, was.

And will be again.

He's already shown a few times that he's capable of being his old self.  Memphis' rotation was already set; I'd bet that with minutes he'd come close to his prior productivity.

[MBz]

Superstar: 0

Allstar: 2(Rondo & Roy)

Fringe/Psudo-Allstar Caliber players: 3
(Gay, Aldridge, & Milsap)

Starter: 2 (A.Bargnani & K.Lowry)

Role Player/Top Rotation guys: 6
Jordan Farmar, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, JJ Reddick, & Ty Thomas

Bench Warmer/specialists: 1(Daniel Gibson)

5 high caliber players, 2 starters, 6 role players, and a specialist. 13 out of 60, NBA players? Sounds weak as advertised to me.

Thabo Sefolosha is a starter and Powe is a great role player.

Was a great role player, was.

And will be again.

He's already shown a few times that he's capable of being his old self.  Memphis' rotation was already set; I'd bet that with minutes he'd come close to his prior productivity.

Yes, on a bad team.  Being a good rotational player on a bad team doesn't make you a great role player.  JJ Barea is a great role player, Leon Powe, not so much anymore.  I think this draft is deeper than people are giving it credit for.  It lacks star power, but that doesn't effect the Celtics anyways with the 25th pick.  There are a lot of rotation guys in this draft who will have the ability to play in this league.