Distant Future Free Agency Plans

[Who]

Tyrus Thomas looks like the most interesting possible signing this offseason. He has more potential than anyone else on that list who may be available for the MLE.

After the Big Three retire, the Celtics would be able to build a defense around Kendrick Perkins + Ty Thomas + Rajon Rondo. Thomas' athleticism, quickness and mobility is the perfect match to Perk's burly interior defense. Those two would be one heck of a combination defensively. Add an elite scorer or two very good scorers and you have a team that is capable of contending for a title.

[slamtheking]

Tyrus Thomas looks like the most interesting possible signing this offseason. He has more potential than anyone else on that list who may be available for the MLE.

After the Big Three retire, the Celtics would be able to build a defense around Kendrick Perkins + Ty Thomas + Rajon Rondo. Thomas' athleticism, quickness and mobility is the perfect match to Perk's burly interior defense. Those two would be one heck of a combination defensively. Add an elite scorer or two very good scorers and you have a team that is capable of contending for a title.

I think the MLE (or a good chunk of it) will go to next year's backup wing rather than another big.  We've already got Perk, KG, Sheed and BBD under contract for next year and no one behind PP and Ray except Walker.

[nickagneta]

Next year there's only five players I would target and hope an MLE contract could land them. Travis Outlaw, Rasual Butler, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobelli and Anthony Morrow.

Granted hoping the MLE would land Manu or Gay is a bit delusional but, you never know, depending upon what the league fiscal numbers look like and what the cap and luxury numbers and projections for the year ahead will look like.

[Fafnir]

Next year there's only five players I would target and hope an MLE contract could land them. Travis Outlaw, Rasual Butler, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobelli and Anthony Morrow.

Granted hoping the MLE would land Manu or Gay is a bit delusional but, you never know, depending upon what the league fiscal numbers look like and what the cap and luxury numbers and projections for the year ahead will look like.

No way San Antonio lets Manu leave if all he costs is the MLE.

[Who]

Anthony Morrow

Anthony Morrow is somewhat interesting. Excellent shooter and good at creating scoring opportunities with movement off the ball. I'd be more interested in him if he was either more prolific as a scorer (12ppg in 31mpg in GSW) or better in non-scoring areas.

Non scoring areas -- Defense is below average but decent. Rebounding slightly below average. Passing is similar to James Jones, nice team orientated, always make the extra pass, but not much beyond that.

Travis Outlaw

I'm not that interested in Travis Outlaw as a backup for Paul Pierce. However, I do think he's an excellent option to replace Glen Davis. He gives Boston that perimeter orientated athletic power forward that they lack when matching up against teams like Atlanta (Josh Smith) and Orlando (Rashard Lewis).

I don't think Outlaw is as good a scorer at the three versus the four because he lacks a quickness/explosiveness advantage there. He isn't the most efficient scorer either, and can be taken out of the game by a good defense team (especially at SF). His defense is also slightly below average but that's mostly down to a lack of effort rather than defensive potential.

Split The MLE

I like the idea of splitting the MLE between two players. Rasual Butler is very good name here. Also, Dorrell Wright depending on how his performance level fluctuates as the season progresses. Raja Bell. And our own Marquis Daniels.

Three more interesting names have player options -- Kelenna Azubuike, Mo Evans and John Salmons -- I don't think I trust Salmons enough to pay him the sort of money he'll ask for though.

The one note on Rasual Butler is that he's a weak rebounding wing. So is Ray Allen. And Paul Pierce is gradually declining. That three man wing rotation would be fairly vulnerable on the glass and force the rest of the team (bigs, PGs) to make up for their flaws. So, if Butler is a main target, then I think it's important that team gets a fourth wing who can rebound the ball well (like Marquis or Wright or Azubuike).

Mike Miller

Mike Miller would be the player at the top of my wish list. A decent scorer, excellent shooter, very good-to-excellent rebounder and a very good passer. Below average but serviceable defensively mainly due to his size + length.

If Miller was available for the MLE, and I think there's a good chance he will be (not a certainty though, then he'd be my top choice to backup Paul Pierce and Ray Allen.

Then try to sign a minimum contract wing like Keith Bogans or Ime Udoka or Quinton Ross, someone who's an above average defender, to provide a different skill-set behind Miller. Someone that can give some minutes when necessary.

[Who]

Tyrus Thomas looks like the most interesting possible signing this offseason. He has more potential than anyone else on that list who may be available for the MLE.

After the Big Three retire, the Celtics would be able to build a defense around Kendrick Perkins + Ty Thomas + Rajon Rondo. Thomas' athleticism, quickness and mobility is the perfect match to Perk's burly interior defense. Those two would be one heck of a combination defensively. Add an elite scorer or two very good scorers and you have a team that is capable of contending for a title.

I think the MLE (or a good chunk of it) will go to next year's backup wing rather than another big.  We've already got Perk, KG, Sheed and BBD under contract for next year and no one behind PP and Ray except Walker.

Yeah, I agree. I was just noting Ty Thomas as the main player (only player?) in this year's free agent class who could be available for the MLE that may be able to play an integral role in the Celtics team after the Big Three retire.

I don't see anyone else in that bracket who can offer comparable ability and/or potential to Tyrus Thomas. Good defender with excellent defensive potential. Solid rebounder with very good rebounding potential. A player who is happy trying to effect the game without needing a lot of touches/shots. A decent offensive player who finishes very well around the rim and has a developing jump shot. He's by no means a certainty to fulfill his potential, heck he's more likely not to than to, but he's still very interesting.

Say They Sign Thomas

If the Celtics did go down that road, they could (1) trade BBD + draft picks (2) or sign Marquis if he was willing to sign for non-bird rights (3) and use minimum contracts to round out wing rotation.

I think the BBD + draft picks option could net a good backup wing and the minimum contracts could help fill in the deeper reserves. That looks like a good option. The Marquis option is more hit and hope ... but possible.

I think that's a manageable set of options.

[nickagneta]

Excellent job Who, TP. I will mention though that Outlaw would be a great replacement for Williams/Scal and would make a great SF/PF tweener guy to fill the Posey role of two years ago. I wouldn't think that he would necessarily replace Davis as he would Scal/Williams somewhere around 8th on the depth chart/rotation on the team.

[moiso]

Thomas would be a great pickup at that price, though he has one of the lower basketball IQ's i've seen recently.  I like Outlaw too, but I wonder if he's going to be happy in a bench role at this stage.  He's probably itching to get a shot as a starter.

[slamtheking]

Tyrus Thomas looks like the most interesting possible signing this offseason. He has more potential than anyone else on that list who may be available for the MLE.

After the Big Three retire, the Celtics would be able to build a defense around Kendrick Perkins + Ty Thomas + Rajon Rondo. Thomas' athleticism, quickness and mobility is the perfect match to Perk's burly interior defense. Those two would be one heck of a combination defensively. Add an elite scorer or two very good scorers and you have a team that is capable of contending for a title.

I think the MLE (or a good chunk of it) will go to next year's backup wing rather than another big.  We've already got Perk, KG, Sheed and BBD under contract for next year and no one behind PP and Ray except Walker.

Yeah, I agree. I was just noting Ty Thomas as the main player (only player?) in this year's free agent class who could be available for the MLE that may be able to play an integral role in the Celtics team after the Big Three retire.

I don't see anyone else in that bracket who can offer comparable ability and/or potential to Tyrus Thomas. Good defender with excellent defensive potential. Solid rebounder with very good rebounding potential. A player who is happy trying to effect the game without needing a lot of touches/shots. A decent offensive player who finishes very well around the rim and has a developing jump shot. He's by no means a certainty to fulfill his potential, heck he's more likely not to than to, but he's still very interesting.

Say They Sign Thomas

If the Celtics did go down that road, they could (1) trade BBD + draft picks (2) or sign Marquis if he was willing to sign for non-bird rights (3) and use minimum contracts to round out wing rotation.

I think the BBD + draft picks option could net a good backup wing and the minimum contracts could help fill in the deeper reserves. That looks like a good option. The Marquis option is more hit and hope ... but possible.

I think that's a manageable set of options.

I agree with you that Thomas would be a good pickup for the MLE if they could get him as long as they could also find a quality backup a the wing.  I don't mind bringing Marquis back but he was looking for a bigger increase going into next year.  I don't think he's earned one based on his level of play so far and time lost due to injury.

I also like Nick's perspective on Outlaw.  I'm reluctant to make a trade for him this year due to injury but he would also be a nice pickup for next year's bench (again, provided we can get a decent wing too).

[Who]

I'd picture Travis Outlaw playing an almost identical role to one he was playing in Portland this season before getting injured. Around 21 minutes a night. About 80% of his minutes coming at the four and the rest at SF. Similar offensive + defensive responsibilities.

With Sheed + Outlaw being the Celtics 6th and 7th men. Rasheed Wallace would be the defensive anchor of the second unit. Outlaw the go-to scorer. With Outlaw at the four, the second unit could turn up the pace and try to get more transition opportunities.

Then add some muscle and rebounding behind those two. Someone along the lines of Kurt Thomas, Shelden Williams, Louis Amundson, Josh Powell, Craig Smith, Joe Smith. No real need for Scalabrine with Outlaw on the books. I'd try to go for a third string center (say Brian Skinner, Etan Thomas) instead of bring back Scal.

[Who]

Al Harrington is another interesting name. He could fill a similar role for the Celtics to one Outlaw would have.

Outlaw would be the first choice though. Better at SF, younger, and has more potential.

Harrington would very likely demand somewhere between $5 million and the MLE but if the Celtics managed to split their MLE between him and a wing player, that would be a very interesting route to take.

[nickagneta]

I'd picture Travis Outlaw playing an almost identical role to one he was playing in Portland this season before getting injured. Around 21 minutes a night. About 80% of his minutes coming at the four and the rest at SF. Similar offensive + defensive responsibilities.

With Sheed + Outlaw being the Celtics 6th and 7th men. Rasheed Wallace would be the defensive anchor of the second unit. Outlaw the go-to scorer. With Outlaw at the four, the second unit could turn up the pace and try to get more transition opportunities.

Then add some muscle and rebounding behind those two. Someone along the lines of Kurt Thomas, Shelden Williams, Louis Amundson, Josh Powell, Craig Smith, Joe Smith. No real need for Scalabrine with Outlaw on the books. I'd try to go for a third string center (say Brian Skinner, Etan Thomas) instead of bring back Scal.

See I would move Sheed to the center position on the second team and play Baby at the PF and Outlaw at the SF against bigger slower PFs and go with Sheed or Baby at the 5 and Outlaw at the 4 for teams with PFs that are more mobile and outside shooters.

A small ball lineup of Baby/Outlaw/Ray/Pierce/Rondo would make for a very tough match up both offensively and defensively. By the same token a large lineup of Perk/KG/Outlaw/Pierce/Rondo is pretty intriguing as well. Also, my reason for holding onto Baby while signing Outlaw would be to further insure the team against extended injury problems to much older front line players KG and Wallace.

[Drucci]

Great post, TP!

I've read it but I must admit I'm not looking that far away... though I should probably do it. I'm enjoying the moment and hoping the Big Three can play well for a few more years, thus avoiding rebuilding thoughts.

[Fan from VT]

I wanted to point out something here.

I hadn't thought much about a new CBA when i wrote this.

Let's assume the CBA is a compromise; salaries are still [mostly] guaranteed, but shorter length, maximum contract amounts are diminished, etc, but current contracts are still legally binding.


This means that guys like Class 2 and Class 3 players could be looking at a pay DECREASE if they opt out of their deals; this could mean that most class 3 guys will wait until 2013 (CP3, Dwight) to be free agents but that guys like carmelo would be more likely to play out the 2011-2012 season at his current contract and enter 2012 free agency. It could also potentially mean that there's not much incentive for the Horford/Durant class to lock up a deal that's not as lengthy or as rich as the ones today; their Q.O and having control over their destination may be more worth it than an extension in the new CBA, so we could see more of those players as UFAs in 2012.


Is this a thinly masked way of saying that i'm excited that a new CBA could help pave the way for a Rondo-Durant-Perk or Rondo-Melo-Perk core with a guys like Blatche at PF?

Maybe. But it is more plausible under the new CBA scenario.