3. there is no evidence that the patriots did anything wrong
I disagree with you there. Circumstantial evidence is evidence. If only a couple of balls had been deflated, or if the Colts balls had been deflated, I'd agree. Based on what we've heard so far, though, I think that it's not that hard to follow the logic chain.
For all we know, the Colts balls may have been inflated to 13.5 before the game, and Pats balls to 12.5. It IS possible for both balls to have lost about 1 PSI, in which case Pats balls could be non-conforming, while Colts balls would still be conforming. Given that the media has already gotten the whistleblower wrong, there's no guarantee they got the amounts right. We're talking about people who could't figure out that a football (13 to 15 oz in weight) cannot be "two pounds lighter" from deflation.
On a separate note, there's also the possibility that the Pats inflate their game balls in a manner to make sure they'll lose some pressure when they go outside on cold days (which I think may be a reason why they haven't been fully forthcoming in describing the exact process of preparing their game balls). Is this an actual wrongdoing? It doesn't involve any tampering with the footballs after they have been approved by the officials.