Western Conference Semis: Kings (1) Vs Warriors (5)

[CB Draft Voting]

Western 1st Round: Kings (1) Vs Warriors (5)

Kings Press Conference

Warriors Press Conference

GMs should post what their tactics would be, how they feel they'd match up, and how they'd handle their rotations. Note that HCA will be the tie-breaker if voting is tied at the end of Tuesday, August 2nd.

Once this round of the playoffs is over, I'll be merging this with the rest of the Western 1st Rd matchups

Note to GMs off playoff teams:
Quote
7. You may not vote for your own team, this is to prevent skewing of overall results by every game theory loving GM from voting themselves in first place.
This rule is a bit unclear it was meant for regular season voting, it doesn't matter in a head to head situation so feel free to list your own team as the winner. If a GM doesn't think his team will win (or fails to vote) boo to him!

Each GM team will still however only get a single vote however, I will count the first ballot I receive. Deadline for voting is 11:59 PM Wednesday.

[nickagneta]

Sacramento Kings Strategy:

Defense: It is pretty obvious to us that the strength of the Warriors is in their front court offense of Dirk and Lee who will need to be stopped. If the warriors play Camby big minutes, we feel that is in our favor as Camby at this time in his career is an offensive liability.

So the game plan is to play Millsap one up one Dirk(who has over their last 9 head to head matchups been giving up 26/8/2 to dirk but has gotten 15/7 against Dirk with 1 SPG and 1 BPG) let Dirk get what he gets on Millsap and shut down the rest of the Warriors.

Chandler(on Lee or Camby), Lebron(on t. Young and Batum), Billups(on Miller), Matthews(on S. Young and Brewer) and Jennings(on Curry) should be able to limit their men enough force Dirk to try to unsuccessfully beat the Kings single handedly. Tight man defense across the board with Lebron and Matthews cheating off their men to cause problems in the passing lanes forcing turnovers.

While the turnovers will help, the Warriors are fast and athletic and we will look to break but be aware of the athleticism of the Warriors to get back and so not force the issue on breaks unless it is Lebron with the ball as he should get the calls going to the basket in transition.

If Dirk starts to go off in a game changing way and Millsap and Diaw are not having success, a switch to Chandler as the primary defensive player on Dirk will occur as he has had success there in the past.

Offense: We are going to try to slow the pace here some and limit the Warriors number of possessions and look towards our offensive efficiency to carry the day against the Warriors. T.Young and Batum, for all their size and length and athleticism have never shown an ability to stop Lebron. Matthews and Chandler and our PGs should be able to score on their men at a high rate.

So, we will go back to out LeBron led offense off the edge with Millsap and Chandler the underneath man on the strong side(depending on who Dirk covers as we want Dirk on the strong side working on defense) with off the ball screens for the guards to open up outside shots and picks of Lebron's defenders to get him going to the hole and possibly putting Dirk in the position of having to try to help on LeBron and hopefully get in foul trouble.

Rotation: Billups will continue to start but be first player to the bench early in the first and third as we want Jennings on Curry and Billups on Miller as much as possible in the game.

We will also use Diaw as Millsap's primary backup trying to keep him fresh and will use Mohammed to back up Chandler and get him minutes when Camby is in the game keeping Chandler in the game to cover Lee.

We see LeBron and Matthews and Chandler being the workhorses in this series as starters with Diaw getting 12-16 MPG at PF, Mohammed 8-10 MPG at C, Miller 10-12 MPG at SF/SG, and Jennings playing as many as 25-28 MPG as he takes a larger role in being Curry's main defensive pairing.

Keys to winning:
- Taking away the offense of the rest of the Warriors and having Millsap and Diaw hold Dirk to less than 30. We do that, we win, in our mins.
- Slowing the pace and hitting the defensive boards trying to limit the amount of possessions the warriors will have.
- Exploiting the LeBron matchup offensively and having him take the ball at the bigs of the Warriors, especially Dirk
- Chandler. His defense on Lee and Dirk if necessary could be the difference in this series.
- Chauncey/Matthews/Jennings coming up big from the outside opening space for Lebron to go to the basket and create or draw fouls.

[Kane3387]

This should be a good series. Arguably the two toughest match-up players in the NBA in Dirk and LBJ. No one creates issues for defenses quite like these guys. A rematch of the finals in a way between the best players on their respective teams. LBJ should want revenge here. I think this series could go the distance and HCA could be the key.

I need to see minute distributions here before I start doing my analysis because of the match-ups and depths. This is such an intriguing series in my opinion.

Please post this.

We see LeBron and Matthews and Chandler being the workhorses in this series as starters with Diaw getting 12-16 MPG at PF, Mohammed 8-10 MPG at C, Miller 10-12 MPG at SF/SG, and Jennings playing as many as 25-28 MPG as he takes a larger role in being Curry's main defensive pairing.

How much minutes will the starters be getting here Sacramento?

[Rondo2287]

This should be a good series. Arguably the two toughest match-up players in the NBA in Dirk and LBJ. No one creates issues for defenses quite like these guys. A rematch of the finals in a way between the best players on their respective teams. LBJ should want revenge here. I think this series could go the distance and HCA could be the key.

I need to see minute distributions here before I start doing my analysis.

Please post this.

We see LeBron and Matthews and Chandler being the workhorses in this series as starters with Diaw getting 12-16 MPG at PF, Mohammed 8-10 MPG at C, Miller 10-12 MPG at SF/SG, and Jennings playing as many as 25-28 MPG as he takes a larger role in being Curry's main defensive pairing.

How much minutes will the starters be getting here Sacramento?

Subtract the substitues minutes from total minutes and you get the starters minutes...

[Kane3387]

This should be a good series. Arguably the two toughest match-up players in the NBA in Dirk and LBJ. No one creates issues for defenses quite like these guys. A rematch of the finals in a way between the best players on their respective teams. LBJ should want revenge here. I think this series could go the distance and HCA could be the key.

I need to see minute distributions here before I start doing my analysis.

Please post this.

We see LeBron and Matthews and Chandler being the workhorses in this series as starters with Diaw getting 12-16 MPG at PF, Mohammed 8-10 MPG at C, Miller 10-12 MPG at SF/SG, and Jennings playing as many as 25-28 MPG as he takes a larger role in being Curry's main defensive pairing.

How much minutes will the starters be getting here Sacramento?

Subtract the substitues minutes from total minutes and you get the starters minutes...

 

Milsap 32-26 minutes
Chandler 38-40 minutes
James 42-43 minutes
Matthews 42-43 minutes
Billups 20 -23 minutes

Is this correct?

[Rondo2287]

This should be a good series. Arguably the two toughest match-up players in the NBA in Dirk and LBJ. No one creates issues for defenses quite like these guys. A rematch of the finals in a way between the best players on their respective teams. LBJ should want revenge here. I think this series could go the distance and HCA could be the key.

I need to see minute distributions here before I start doing my analysis because of the match-ups and depths. This is such an intriguing series in my opinion.

Please post this.

We see LeBron and Matthews and Chandler being the workhorses in this series as starters with Diaw getting 12-16 MPG at PF, Mohammed 8-10 MPG at C, Miller 10-12 MPG at SF/SG, and Jennings playing as many as 25-28 MPG as he takes a larger role in being Curry's main defensive pairing.

How much minutes will the starters be getting here Sacramento?

Chandler 38-40 mpg
Millsap  32-36 mpg
Lebron   42-44 mpg
Matthews 38-42 mpg
Chauncey 22-25 mpg

All approximate

[Kane3387]

This should be a good series. Arguably the two toughest match-up players in the NBA in Dirk and LBJ. No one creates issues for defenses quite like these guys. A rematch of the finals in a way between the best players on their respective teams. LBJ should want revenge here. I think this series could go the distance and HCA could be the key.

I need to see minute distributions here before I start doing my analysis because of the match-ups and depths. This is such an intriguing series in my opinion.

Please post this.

We see LeBron and Matthews and Chandler being the workhorses in this series as starters with Diaw getting 12-16 MPG at PF, Mohammed 8-10 MPG at C, Miller 10-12 MPG at SF/SG, and Jennings playing as many as 25-28 MPG as he takes a larger role in being Curry's main defensive pairing.

How much minutes will the starters be getting here Sacramento?

Chandler 38-40 mpg
Millsap  32-36 mpg
Lebron   42-44 mpg
Matthews 38-42 mpg
Chauncey 22-25 mpg

All approximate

Cool. Thanks.

[nickagneta]

This should be a good series. Arguably the two toughest match-up players in the NBA in Dirk and LBJ. No one creates issues for defenses quite like these guys. A rematch of the finals in a way between the best players on their respective teams. LBJ should want revenge here. I think this series could go the distance and HCA could be the key.

I need to see minute distributions here before I start doing my analysis because of the match-ups and depths. This is such an intriguing series in my opinion.

Please post this.

We see LeBron and Matthews and Chandler being the workhorses in this series as starters with Diaw getting 12-16 MPG at PF, Mohammed 8-10 MPG at C, Miller 10-12 MPG at SF/SG, and Jennings playing as many as 25-28 MPG as he takes a larger role in being Curry's main defensive pairing.

How much minutes will the starters be getting here Sacramento?

Lebron, Matthews and Chandler probably all 38-42. We will try to get Billups to mirror Andre Miller's minutes(probably 20-28) and Millsap about 36.

[ChampKind]

Aw daamnit I'm on the road again. Here's my quick thoughts, since I can't get any good reference sites to work on this airport wireless:

The zone will get used often to change up looks and frustrate Lebron, similar to how it was used in the Finals this year. Corey Brewer will be dusted off in short minutes to frustrate Lebron as well, and Thad Young will be counted on to physically harass Lebron if the long, wispy arms of Batum/Brewer aren't effective.

Billups isn't the dynamic offensive player who can exploit Curry's lack of quickness at PG. Chandler isn't the offensive player who can exploit David Lee, either. Unfortunately for the Kings, they don't have their elite offensive players in positions that can exploit the holes in our defense. Lebron, however, has the strength to muscle around Batum, which could be a problem.

Chandler is solid, but paired up against two very strong rebounders in Camby and Lee, limiting his effectiveness. Camby may not offer much on offense, but that's more a function of him understanding his role and limiting usage.

Minutes breakdown:

PG: Curry (26), Miller (22)
SG: Young (24), Curry (8-), Batum (8-), Brewer (6)
SF: Batum (24), T. Young (20), Brewer (4)
PF: Dirk (40), T. Young (6), Lee (2)
C: Camby (22), Lee (26)

Obviously rough estimates that are subject to change, but I'm fairly confident that those numbers add up to 48, which is good math, probably. Lots of depth here, and our athletic game will help tire out a Kings team with a solid bench, but whose 2nd unit isn't as good.

Matchups I like: Curry/Miller against Billups/Jennings, Dirk against Millsap, Camby/Lee against Chandler/Mohammed
Matchups I sort of don't like that much: Matthews/Miller against my SG platter.
Matchups I hate: Lebron versus anyone. Good thing his playoff stock is pretty low.

Unfortunately I'm traveling for work today, so I'll have a tough time responding to arguments until nighttime. If that affects how you vote, no big deal, but it's not purposeful ignorance on my end.

Finally, if in doubt, just think back to the last time LeBron and Dirk met in the playoffs, then look into your heart of hearts and vote for Golden State. Because, dude, I totally would have voted for your team (offer not valid for Nick or Rondo).

[Kane3387]

Again I think this should be a great series in looking at the match-ups.

Curry V Jennings - I personally like Steph here. I think he improved this past season while Jennings regressed. Still I think this match-up is pretty even but I give Steph a slight nod.
Miller V Billups - I like Billups here. I think, like the match-up above, it is pretty even but I still give Billups the nod here.

Young V Matthews - I like Matthews here. I think this is a competitive match-up and Young is underrated but Matthews brings more to the table.

Batum V James - James. Not even close. I think Batum's D makes Lebron work a little more then usual but Thad Young will have to be ready because Batum can't guard this guy for 40+ mpg.

Dirk V Milsap Dirk. Not close, but it's closer then the SF match-up. I don't think Milsap can guard Dirk, but who really can? I think Milsap can make Dirk work on D though.

Camby V Chandler - I think Camby, and his jumper, is underrated and Chandler is overrated here. Depending on Camby's minutes I give a slight edge to Chandler. The more minutes Camby plays over 25 mpg the more the advantage goes to Chandler.

Looking at the rest of the bench, I think the Warriors have the advantage. David Lee was an All-Star in 2010, and is much better then Mohammad and Diaw. I am not high on Favors. I think he is still a year or two away but he has upside and athleticism. Not that big on Neal and I really like Beabois. Assuming he is healthy Beabois can really light it up and be a very good scoring combo guard. Thad Young is far superior to Mike Miller and he will have to bring it against Lebron.

I need to see the Warriors defensive strategy and minutes rotation before I make my final decision. There depth makes this a tough one.

As of now leaning towards the Kings though, because I don't think the lights in the second round are bright enough to mess with James' head.

[Rondo2287]

Curry V Jennings - I personally like Steph here. I think he improved this past season while Jennings regressed. Still I think this match-up is pretty even but I give Steph a slight nod.

In 4 games, Jennings is averaging

25ppg, 5.5 rpg, 6apg and 1.8 spg, on .467% shooting

Curry averaging

13.8ppg, 4.3 rpg 3.8 apg, 3 spg, on .431% shooting

Jennings team is 3-1 in those 4 games

[nickagneta]

Well if Champkind is going with a zone that should fall right into our hands as our philosophy is to use Jennings and Matthews and Lebron to take it to the hole and draw fouls or create on a dish out. When the zone collapses, we have deadly shooters on the perimeter.

Our three point shooting prowess should also be able to find the  dead zones in the perimeter zone and shoot over it. A zone might be effect against a team with Wade and Lebron(both okay three point shooters) who both feel that they can just do it by themselves over and around a zone but it won't work with this bunch as the passing on the exterior, better three point shooting and better balance through the lineup will be what will beat the zone.

Also, as much as Champ likes the Lee/Camby matchup on ChandlerMohammed, I think he shouldn't.

Here's the Lee/Chandler head to head:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=leeda02&p2=chandty01

Lee: 34 MPG 12.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 53.5% FG%, 0.8 SPG, 0.5 BPG
Chandler: 30 MPG 9.1 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 60.7% FG%, 0.8 SPG, o.8 BPG

That's a wash my friends in 11 head to head matchups. Camby and Mohammed are both offensively challenged and neither will swing the difference significantly one way or the other, especially since Chandler will be seeing most of the minutes.

Champ is also off in thinking Curry will be able to exploit Billups since our plan is to limit Billups exposure to Curry and play Jennings more minutes against Curry to tighten up the defense on him and use Jennings speed to drive and create in the half court.

[nickagneta]

Over the last 9 head to head matchups where Paul Millsap has played big minutes against Dirk here are the numbers:

Millsap: 32 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 51 for 101 for 50% FG%, 1.2 SPG, 1.4 BPG

Dirk: 35.5 MPG, 26.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 86 for 157 for 54.7% FG%, 7 for 20 for 35% 3PT%

Are we claiming that Millsap did some superior job on Dirk? Hell no. But the Kings can live with this production from both players in a 7 game series. Millsap is still extremely productive offensively and at creating turnovers defensively. He holds Dirk to a reasonable 3PT% and will make him work on the defensive end.

As long as Dirk isn't going off for 35-40, the Kings feel we have the balance offensively and defense against the rest of the Kings to allow Dirk to get his and shut the rest of the team down.

We just don't see any other matchup that is clearly in their favor that would justify the thinking that he will get much help offensively from anywhere else to offset what the Kings bring.

[Kane3387]

Curry V Jennings - I personally like Steph here. I think he improved this past season while Jennings regressed. Still I think this match-up is pretty even but I give Steph a slight nod.

In 4 games, Jennings is averaging

25ppg, 5.5 rpg, 6apg and 1.8 spg, on .467% shooting

Curry averaging

13.8ppg, 4.3 rpg 3.8 apg, 3 spg, on .431% shooting

Jennings team is 3-1 in those 4 games

Nice numbers Rondo. I didn't know about the H2H numbers and those numbers are far more valuable in my opinion then regular season numbers. Nice stuff here. What was the usage rate here? Just wondering if the ball might have been in Ellis hands more then Currys.

Still leaning toward Kings here.

[Who]

Billups isn't the dynamic offensive player who can exploit Curry's lack of quickness at PG.

I don't think S.Curry lacks quickness.

He has good end to end speed and solid lateral quickness.