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Was Marcus a hit pick?

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Author Topic: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick  (Read 16377 times)

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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #90 on: July 24, 2018, 01:00:33 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.
so by your definition, Kyrie would be a miss since it's likely Kawhi would be considered the top player in their draft class?   I think you'll find that a hard sell labelling Kyrie a "miss".

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #91 on: July 24, 2018, 01:21:09 PM »

Offline Moranis

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.
so by your definition, Kyrie would be a miss since it's likely Kawhi would be considered the top player in their draft class?   I think you'll find that a hard sell labelling Kyrie a "miss".
Those are always tricky, but Kyrie would most definitely be 2 in a redraft so not quite the same thing.
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #92 on: July 24, 2018, 01:21:11 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.

He’s better than 2 of the 5 players picked ahead of him, and all of the 5 players picked immediately after him.
Yep, but he isn't a top 10 player from his draft class.  Just because other GM's also failed that year doesn't make Smart a hit.

There are two ways to evaluate this.

a) Was Smart a good draft choice by Danny Ainge at the time he made the decision?  Saltlover's point supports that he was.  Because he clearly is better than all the "reasonable alternatives" at the time of the decision.

b) Is Smart, in hindsight, worth his draft slot relative to other players from his draft?   That is more debatable.  It depends on how you value different things you get from the players. 

On (b) I personally have Smart as right around the 10th most valuable player from that draft.  Definitely below #6, but not like he's dropped off the table.   I don't consider it a "miss" just because you are a few slots below where you were drafted.  There's too much uncertainty and things can change season-to-season.  He's still within a couple of strong seasons of climbing right back up.   

The problem is, the trends haven't favored that.   Smart came out of the gate getting minutes and establishing value on the court well ahead of most of his classmates.   But since then, he hasn't really improved much each year while others in his class have started to take significant leaps and several have caught and passed him by.  And others -- including guys who missed whole seasons -- have basically caught up to him in terms of total value returned.

Unless Smart starts to show some serious improvement in the areas that he has struggled, he will probably drop well out of the top 10 in value for his draft class by the end of this next season.

Sheesh.  Looking at the list of guys in that draft, one guy who we had our hands on briefly that I kinda wish we hadn't let slip through was Dwight Powell.  He's very quietly proven to be a really, really good NBA player.
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #93 on: July 24, 2018, 01:33:02 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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If the standard for a "hit" is to pick the best player available from a historical career respective, almost every player ever drafted wasn't a "hit".

4 years down the road, Smart is an integral part of the team, and just re-signed for another 4 years. There isn't a single player taken behind him who is a led pipe cinch all-star caliber player, and only a few that we can definitively say are better players. Guys like Saric, Lavine, etc aren't significantly better players. I can see Capela and maybe Harris, but you can split hairs and favor one over the other, but there isn't a chasm between Marcus and anyone picked later.

As much as I've criticized him and his shooting and shot selection, he's a hit. No question about it.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #94 on: July 24, 2018, 01:42:11 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.
so by your definition, Kyrie would be a miss since it's likely Kawhi would be considered the top player in their draft class?   I think you'll find that a hard sell labelling Kyrie a "miss".
Those are always tricky, but Kyrie would most definitely be 2 in a redraft so not quite the same thing.
really? I'd thought for sure you'd put him behind Butler and Klay at a minimum. 

to me, either your standard applies to everyone or it doesn't.  If you're giving a top pick the ability to slide as far back as #4 depending on who you ask for a redraft, why wouldn't Smart as a #6 get a little more leeway and still be a hit if seen as a #10 in a redraft? 

on the whole, i think using a 'redraft' to evaluate a hit or miss is a poor premise.  a better premise is can the guy play and produce on the court?   if yes, he's a hit.  whether or not he was good value for the slot he was picked is a different discussion.  a perfectly valid discussion but not the same as whether the player is a hit or miss.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #95 on: July 24, 2018, 01:54:20 PM »

Offline Moranis

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.
so by your definition, Kyrie would be a miss since it's likely Kawhi would be considered the top player in their draft class?   I think you'll find that a hard sell labelling Kyrie a "miss".
Those are always tricky, but Kyrie would most definitely be 2 in a redraft so not quite the same thing.
really? I'd thought for sure you'd put him behind Butler and Klay at a minimum. 

to me, either your standard applies to everyone or it doesn't.  If you're giving a top pick the ability to slide as far back as #4 depending on who you ask for a redraft, why wouldn't Smart as a #6 get a little more leeway and still be a hit if seen as a #10 in a redraft? 

on the whole, i think using a 'redraft' to evaluate a hit or miss is a poor premise.  a better premise is can the guy play and produce on the court?   if yes, he's a hit.  whether or not he was good value for the slot he was picked is a different discussion.  a perfectly valid discussion but not the same as whether the player is a hit or miss.
He definitely goes ahead of Klay.  Butler is more tricky, but I would expect the vast majority of persons would have Irving ahead of him, why I said 2, though you could at least argue 3.  If he went 3 or worse, then he would certainly be a miss. 

The value of the pick is what you are measuring by rating the pick as a hit or miss. 
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #96 on: July 24, 2018, 02:04:19 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.


I don't agree with this.  There are a lot of guys who score more points, but those are empty calories.

Getting a player like Smart at #6 is a good outcome for any draft, but it's especially good in light of how weak the 2014 class turned out to be.


You obviously want to get an All-Star talent with a top 10 pick, but statistically that's always less likely to happen than to not happen.

If you come away with a valuable nightly contributor, especially one who brings intangible value on and off the court, you can't complain.



I would much rather have Smart than the empty calorie scorers like Parker, Warren, Hood, and Lavine, and I'd rather have him than role players like Dwight Powell, Jusuf Nurkic, and Elfrid Payton.

It's really hard to find defenders like Smart who can also take on playmaking duties and hit timely shots.  It's not that hard to find solid role players at backup point and backup center.




This kinda makes me think of Shane Battier, who was also a #6 pick.  I bet there were people questioning him as a top 10 pick back then, even though 01 was a weak draft.  But you'd rather have Battier than a lot of the guys in that draft who averaged more points.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2018, 02:14:23 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #97 on: July 24, 2018, 02:33:48 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.


I don't agree with this.  There are a lot of guys who score more points, but those are empty calories.

Getting a player like Smart at #6 is a good outcome for any draft, but it's especially good in light of how weak the 2014 class turned out to be.


You obviously want to get an All-Star talent with a top 10 pick, but statistically that's always less likely to happen than to not happen.

If you come away with a valuable nightly contributor, especially one who brings intangible value on and off the court, you can't complain.



I would much rather have Smart than the empty calorie scorers like Parker, Warren, Hood, and Lavine, and I'd rather have him than role players like Dwight Powell, Jusuf Nurkic, and Elfrid Payton.

It's really hard to find defenders like Smart who can also take on playmaking duties and hit timely shots.  It's not that hard to find solid role players at backup point and backup center.




This kinda makes me think of Shane Battier, who was also a #6 pick.  I bet there were people questioning him as a top 10 pick back then, even though 01 was a weak draft.  But you'd rather have Battier than a lot of the guys in that draft who averaged more points.

Put Smart on Warren's Suns or Lavine's Wolves, and Smart's winning plays, which are very valuable here, become an alternate version of the empty calories you speak of. 

Smart most likely adds very little to those clubs in terms of wins.  The market confirms this, in the form of 0 bad teams with cap space making a run at him.

For the average awful team picking #6 in the draft, a go-to-scorer is immensely more valuable than a bench defensive specialist.  Smart isn't a 'hit' at #6, but I'd say we got 'solid value.'
« Last Edit: July 24, 2018, 03:56:39 PM by smokeablount »
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #98 on: July 24, 2018, 03:26:01 PM »

Offline csfansince60s

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.
so by your definition, Kyrie would be a miss since it's likely Kawhi would be considered the top player in their draft class?   I think you'll find that a hard sell labelling Kyrie a "miss".
Those are always tricky, but Kyrie would most definitely be 2 in a redraft so not quite the same thing.
really? I'd thought for sure you'd put him behind Butler and Klay at a minimum. 

to me, either your standard applies to everyone or it doesn't.  If you're giving a top pick the ability to slide as far back as #4 depending on who you ask for a redraft, why wouldn't Smart as a #6 get a little more leeway and still be a hit if seen as a #10 in a redraft? 

on the whole, i think using a 'redraft' to evaluate a hit or miss is a poor premise.  a better premise is can the guy play and produce on the court?   if yes, he's a hit.  whether or not he was good value for the slot he was picked is a different discussion.  a perfectly valid discussion but not the same as whether the player is a hit or miss.
He definitely goes ahead of Klay.  Butler is more tricky, but I would expect the vast majority of persons would have Irving ahead of him, why I said 2, though you could at least argue 3.  If he went 3 or worse, then he would certainly be a miss. 

The value of the pick is what you are measuring by rating the pick as a hit or miss.

https://youtu.be/XCSBLR6z5OA

EDIT: similar logic

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #99 on: July 24, 2018, 03:54:47 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.
so by your definition, Kyrie would be a miss since it's likely Kawhi would be considered the top player in their draft class?   I think you'll find that a hard sell labelling Kyrie a "miss".
Those are always tricky, but Kyrie would most definitely be 2 in a redraft so not quite the same thing.
really? I'd thought for sure you'd put him behind Butler and Klay at a minimum. 

to me, either your standard applies to everyone or it doesn't.  If you're giving a top pick the ability to slide as far back as #4 depending on who you ask for a redraft, why wouldn't Smart as a #6 get a little more leeway and still be a hit if seen as a #10 in a redraft? 

on the whole, i think using a 'redraft' to evaluate a hit or miss is a poor premise.  a better premise is can the guy play and produce on the court?   if yes, he's a hit.  whether or not he was good value for the slot he was picked is a different discussion.  a perfectly valid discussion but not the same as whether the player is a hit or miss.
He definitely goes ahead of Klay.  Butler is more tricky, but I would expect the vast majority of persons would have Irving ahead of him, why I said 2, though you could at least argue 3.  If he went 3 or worse, then he would certainly be a miss. 

The value of the pick is what you are measuring by rating the pick as a hit or miss.

https://youtu.be/XCSBLR6z5OA

EDIT: similar logic

I think the 'redraft rule' is important, but to me, it also matters that even if Kyrie would go #3 in a redraft:

-he's a multiple time all-star and ASG MVP.  Smart is not close to this, redraft or no redraft.
-he's an Olympic Gold medalist as the best or 2nd best player on that team,
-he was in the MVP mix this year (tho no chance to win) at 25, which is decently young.
-he's an NBA champion as the 2nd best player on his team, and arguably the 3rd best player in that finals, behind LBJ & Curry (tho Curry wasn't elite in those finals).

To date, Smart has received no season accolades or all star appearances, he's just received a smattering of all-defense votes.  To say Smart (drafted 6, redrafted, say, 8 ) and Kyrie (drafted 1, redrafted 3rd here) are the same because they would each go 2 spots later in a redraft ignores quite a few big indicators of success that one player has achieved.  The other hasn't.

I know comparisons are relative, but to me, Kyrie's accolades matter even if he gets passed by a few players.  What has Smart done to equal this, besides difficult to quantify 'winning plays?' 
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #100 on: July 24, 2018, 03:56:37 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Put Smart on Warren's Suns or Lavine's Wolves / Bulls, and his winning plays, which are very valuable here, become an alternate version of the empty calories you speak of. 

Smart most likely adds very little to those clubs in terms of wins.  The market confirms this, in the form of 0 bad teams with cap space making a run at him.

For the average awful team picking #6 in the draft, a go-to-scorer is immensely more valuable than a bench defensive specialist.  Smart isn't a 'hit' at #6, but I'd say we got 'solid value.'


I don't think I really agree with this, either.

High volume scorers, especially ones that are not especially efficient and give up a ton on the other end, are overrated commodities.  They don't actually really help you win games.

I think most bad teams would win a lot more games if they had more players like Marcus instead of revolving around players like Lavine. 

But most bad teams don't want to win more games now, they want to assemble valuable assets and win later.

The difference is those teams are hoping that the bad young players like Lavine eventually become good at defense, more efficient at scoring, and provide more overall value.  The seeming upside is what persuades them to go for those guys and give them lots of touches.  They hope the Lavines and Parkers turn into stars or serve as significant parts of trades for stars (like when the Wolves traded Lavine for Butler).

Smart is never going to score 20 points per game, but he was helping the Celts win games pretty much as soon as he entered the league (even though the Celts were bad).

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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #101 on: July 24, 2018, 04:00:20 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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Stephen Curry was picked at #7 overall.

Marcus Smart was picked at #6 overall.

...

...

What do you think?

Certainly we would have hoped for a bigger impact from Smart.

But I wouldn't call him a miss either.  He's an important rotation player.  Possibly our 6th man this season.

But you do hope for a starter or an all star caliber player when you are picking at #6 overall in the draft.

We do have to consider the 2014 draft class itself.  Were there any players we could have taken who are arguably significantly better than Smart at that draft slot?

Only ones that come readily to mind are Clint Capela and Nikola Jokic.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #102 on: July 24, 2018, 04:03:55 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm


Look at the chart on this site.  Rates the average return of pick #6 as 16.5 i.e. "Solid."

In other words, not a star, but more than your typical role player.

I think we can get into an argument here about what constitutes a "role player" and what constitutes the category between that and a star.


For me, Marcus is more than just a role player because he plays 28+ minutes a game and the role he fills for the team is one that would be difficult to replace. 

Whereas to me a role player is somebody who has a valuable skillset and maybe plays starter minutes but is not especially difficult to replace.  In other words, somebody who is more of a specialist.  A shooter; a rebounder; a backup ballhandler.  Smart is a combo guard who can switch 1-5, coordinates the defense, makes hustle plays, operates the pick and roll, and also occasionally gets hot and hits clutch shots.  You can't go out and easily find that skillset on the free agent or trade market.
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #103 on: July 24, 2018, 04:06:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Stephen Curry was picked at #7 overall.

Marcus Smart was picked at #6 overall.


Curry is a huge historical outlier in terms of value at #7, so I don't know what you're trying to say here.  He was a "grand slam in the bottom of the ninth in the World Series."

Certainly it's fair to say Smart was not a "home run."  You hope to get more from #6, especially when you're drafting in that spot because your team is bad and lacking talent, as the Celts were in 2014.

But that's not the same thing as saying the pick was a "miss."  It was a good pick.  In baseball parlance it was a double, or at least a single.
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #104 on: July 24, 2018, 05:08:37 PM »

Offline mctyson

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It's hard to complain when you get "key contributor in winning plays, defense, and overall team culture on a contender" with the sixth overall pick in a relatively weak draft.
But in a weak draft you don't "hit" with many picks right?
He isn't even one of the 10 best players in the draft though.  Weak or not if you don't live up to your draft position you are a miss.

He’s better than 2 of the 5 players picked ahead of him, and all of the 5 players picked immediately after him.
Yep, but he isn't a top 10 player from his draft class.  Just because other GM's also failed that year doesn't make Smart a hit.

It doesn’t make him not a hit either.  Even if I stipulate that you are correct that he’s not a top 10 player from that year (and I’ve seen your list and there are some very debatable choices ahead of him), he has been an incredibly valuable player to this team, which is why he was just re-signed to a new 4-year contract.  It feels like the anti-Smarters around here are continuing to ignore what many of us have said, that the Celtics very much value Smart, even after his signing of a new deal that some feel is over market rate.  Can it not be that, in fact, the Celtics have a heck of a lot better info as to what constitutes value than you?  If you make a pick, and he works out to get starter level minutes from you for all four years of his rookie deal, while you make the playoffs all four of those years, AND you are able to keep him beyond that rookie contract for another four years, then yes, he’s a straight up hit, no qualifications or silly redraft exercises needed.

Could not have said it better than this.  I think at almost all draft slots outside of the top 3, in any draft, you are looking to get a starter-level talent or at least a highly-serviceable bench player who can do one thing really well (or maybe everything above average).  Then you are looking to keep that guy on your roster until he hits his peak at 27 or 28.  The Celtics did both with Smart.