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Was Marcus a hit pick?

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Author Topic: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick  (Read 16368 times)

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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #45 on: July 20, 2018, 03:06:50 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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@monkhouse my point was simpler than this

only compare a pick to picks in a similar range.

I know, I know, it just annoys me greatly whenever people bring up Draymond Green, DeAndre Jordan, Giannis, or Jokic to refute their point of arguing Ainge isn't a good drafter.  :P :P :P :P
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #46 on: July 20, 2018, 03:17:53 PM »

Offline GratefulCs

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@monkhouse my point was simpler than this

only compare a pick to picks in a similar range.

I know, I know, it just annoys me greatly whenever people bring up Draymond Green, DeAndre Jordan, Giannis, or Jokic to refute their point of arguing Ainge isn't a good drafter.  :P :P :P :P
i think jaylen and jayson are perfect examples of him being a good drafter

especially tatum. he swindled another team


also lest we forget rondo at 21, bradley at 19, tony allen at 25


sure there are the gabe pruit's and giddens of the world, but man, he has NAILED some cornerstone franchise players when he gets the chance
I trust Danny Ainge

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #47 on: July 20, 2018, 03:18:58 PM »

Online Donoghus

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He hasn't exactly lived up to what I thought he'd be coming out of college but I'd mark him down in the hit category.  Important role player on a strong basketball team and one of the best defenders in the league.  Just secured a 2nd contract of 4 years/$52 million. 

That's not a miss.


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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #48 on: July 20, 2018, 03:24:54 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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He hasn't exactly lived up to what I thought he'd be coming out of college but I'd mark him down in the hit category.  Important role player on a strong basketball team and one of the best defenders in the league.  Just secured a 2nd contract of 4 years/$52 million. 

That's not a miss.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-6/

Not even close to a miss. The amount of times you don't even get a rotation player out of high pick like 6 is shocking.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #49 on: July 20, 2018, 03:29:01 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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for this coach and team yes .

he needed a certain enviroment

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #50 on: July 20, 2018, 03:39:33 PM »

Offline saltlover

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He hasn't exactly lived up to what I thought he'd be coming out of college but I'd mark him down in the hit category.  Important role player on a strong basketball team and one of the best defenders in the league.  Just secured a 2nd contract of 4 years/$52 million. 

That's not a miss.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-6/

Not even close to a miss. The amount of times you don't even get a rotation player out of high pick like 6 is shocking.

Seriously.  Looking at that list, going back to 2000 the only player taken at 6 I would for sure take over Smart is Lillard.  He’s already far surpassed half of them.  There are a few who are ahead for now that Smart could pass over time (like Brandon Roy due to longevity issues) and obviously the jury is still out on the players drafted since Smart, but really it looks like Smart could easily be in the top 2-3 players picked at 6 between 2000-2019.  Certainly at worst he’s an average result.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #51 on: July 20, 2018, 03:41:44 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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He's simply not a hit, because a hit at #6 would be Lillard.  That's what a hit is.  But he's definitely not a miss either.  He's extremely valuable.  Hence... sort of!
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #52 on: July 20, 2018, 03:48:17 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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He's simply not a hit, because a hit at #6 would be Lillard.  That's what a hit is.  But he's definitely not a miss either.  He's extremely valuable.  Hence... sort of!
At #6 all-star or all-nba player is a home-run. Getting a good rotation player is definitely a hit.

Only at #1 and #2 does the expectation of an all-star level reflect what you can expect based on draft history.


Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #53 on: July 20, 2018, 03:49:24 PM »

Online Moranis

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.

Not trolling honest question, what's your top 10 in a redraft?

In order by original draft position (not redraft position)

Clearly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Wiggins
    Embiid
    Gordon
    Saric
    Capela
    Jokic

Likely ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Parker
    Warren
    Nurkic
    G. Harris


Possibly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Randle
    LaVine
    Hood
    Bogdanovic
    Grant
    Clarkson

So I'd have him anywhere from 11-17 as being a reasonable spot right now.  When you are drafted 6 that is a miss.  I'm not saying it is a bust, but he should absolutely land higher than at best 11 to be considered a hit. 
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 03:55:06 PM by Moranis »
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #54 on: July 20, 2018, 03:53:46 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.

Not trolling honest question, what's your top 10 in a redraft?

In order by original draft position (not redraft position)

Clearly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Wiggins
    Embiid
    Gordon
    Saric
    Capela
    Jokic

Likely ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Parker
    Warren
    Nurkic
    G. Harris


Possibly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Randle
    LaVine
    Hood
    Bogdanovic
    Grant
    Clarkson

So I'd have him anywhere from 11-17 as being a reasonable spot.  When you are drafted 6 that is a miss.  I'm not saying it is a bust, but he should absolutely land higher than at best 11 to be considered a hit.

Looking at your list, and I'm seriously confused, but okay.
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #55 on: July 20, 2018, 03:55:49 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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He's simply not a hit, because a hit at #6 would be Lillard.  That's what a hit is.  But he's definitely not a miss either.  He's extremely valuable.  Hence... sort of!
At #6 all-star or all-nba player is a home-run. Getting a good rotation player is definitely a hit.

Only at #1 and #2 does the expectation of an all-star level reflect what you can expect based on draft history.

'Getting what you expect' isn't a hit, that would more aptly describe Marcus Smart. 

A hit, taken from baseball, would be considered good if it happened 3 in 10 times.  I'm sure guys in the #5-7 range become good starters 3 out of 10 times, Smart isn't at that level yet.

Lillard might be a home run, so ok, by that logic, Smart is a single or a walk.  And I like Smart.
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #56 on: July 20, 2018, 03:57:53 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Smart is a single or a walk.
So a hit?  ;)

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #57 on: July 20, 2018, 03:59:30 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.

Not trolling honest question, what's your top 10 in a redraft?

In order by original draft position (not redraft position)

Clearly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Wiggins
    Embiid
    Gordon
    Saric
    Capela
    Jokic

Likely ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Parker
    Warren
    Nurkic
    G. Harris


Possibly ahead of Smart in a redraft
  • Randle
    LaVine
    Hood
    Bogdanovic
    Grant
    Clarkson

So I'd have him anywhere from 11-17 as being a reasonable spot.  When you are drafted 6 that is a miss.  I'm not saying it is a bust, but he should absolutely land higher than at best 11 to be considered a hit.

Looking at your list, and I'm seriously confused, but okay.

If you polled 30 GMs, there are at least 8 guys definitely ahead of Smart, maybe 10:

Embiid
Wiggins
Jokic
Harris
Gordon
Capela
Saric
LaVine
Nurkic
Warren

I'm not saying he's a miss, but you can't be a 'hit' if you don't outproduce your draft position or come very close, because if that's a hit, what is someone that actually becomes great or elite?
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #58 on: July 20, 2018, 04:02:44 PM »

Offline colincb

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Smart is a single or a walk.
So a hit?  ;)

Anyone thinking he's a hit is reaching.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #59 on: July 20, 2018, 04:07:52 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Smart is a single or a walk.
So a hit?  ;)

Anyone thinking he's a hit is reaching.
I'd say that the people who think freaking TJ Warren and Rodney Hood are better than him are reaching lol.

The average outcome of the 6th pick in the draft is pretty well in line with what Smart is, I'm happy to consider than a hit. A miss is a bust like Nik Stauskis, Alex Len, or Anthony Bennet. A home run is Dame Lillard, CJ McCollum, Giannis, etc.

That's my personal way to grade picks, getting someone who can play matters quite a bit.