Poll: Would you trade Tatum for Ayton

[Moranis]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

[footey]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

I was being generous. I agree with you.

[PhoSita]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

Thing is, guys whose primarily skillset involves being large, dunking the ball, and grabbing rebounds, and who have at best theoretical range and ability to defend pick and rolls / switch on perimeter players ... just have a limited ceiling in today's game.


I mean, Rudy Gobert is absolutely great at pretty much all of that stuff, and he's a borderline All-Star.


The fact is in today's league to be really valuable with Ayton's skillset you have to be incredible.

To be really valuable with Tatum's skillset you pretty much just have to be what Tatum is already, just a bit more assertive and consistent.

[Big333223]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

Ayton might not even have a top 5 rookie season if you look at just these last 2 years. He's going to finish behind Doncic and Young this season. Last season, Simmons and Mitchell both had better years. Then there's a real debate between him (16,10, no defense for 2nd worst team in the league) and Tatum (14-5, solid defense for a 55 win team) for 5th.

I think Ayton has generally been underrated this season but not to this degree.

[PhoSita]

I would much rather have Trae Young or Jaren Jackson Jr. than Ayton.

I also think Bagley's ceiling is higher.

[Monkhouse]

I would take Bagley over Ayton, but maybe that's just me.

I think if we are talking about top 3 rookies, Bagley is actually above Ayton for me.

[Monkhouse]

I would much rather have Trae Young or Jaren Jackson Jr. than Ayton.

I also think Bagley's ceiling is higher.

Agreed. I also believe Jaren Jackson will become a star. His impact defensively is almost unbelievable. And hes not even 20 yet.

[Moranis]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

Ayton might not even have a top 5 rookie season if you look at just these last 2 years. He's going to finish behind Doncic and Young this season. Last season, Simmons and Mitchell both had better years. Then there's a real debate between him (16,10, no defense for 2nd worst team in the league) and Tatum (14-5, solid defense for a 55 win team) for 5th.

I think Ayton has generally been underrated this season but not to this degree.

His win shares are currently 5.9, which is significantly better than Doncic's (and they've played the same amount of games and Ayton is playing less minutes per game).  He is shooting over 58% from the floor and nearly 75% from the line (and it isn't just all in close, his 3-10' % is 55 and he is a very respectable 41% from 10-16').  His PER is 20.5.  He doesn't turn the ball over much (which for a rookie big man is incredibly rare).  There is no question the Suns suck, but that isn't because of Ayton. Of the regular Suns rotation, only Holmes has a better DRTG and Holmes is the only regular rotation player with a better ORTG than him as well.  They are both also the only 2 Suns whose ORTG is larger than their DRTG.  Ayton has quite simply already eclipsed Booker as the Suns best player, and he is only going to get better (while Booker is who is at this point).  Ayton's rookie year has been absolutely fabulous.  Holding him accountable for his team is just nonsense, especially when you look at how bad the Suns have been for years and years (so it isn't like they added Ayton and fell apart).

[Chris22]

I would much rather have Trae Young or Jaren Jackson Jr. than Ayton.

I also think Bagley's ceiling is higher.

Agreed. I also believe Jaren Jackson will become a star. His impact defensively is almost unbelievable. And hes not even 20 yet.

This is true.

[celticsclay]

I agree with people that have said Ayton is underrated and I would do the trade, but saying Ayton has had one of five best rookie seasons of last ten years is pretty excessive. He has been bad defensively, it looks like he has the same defensive rating as Kyrie. Mitchell was either the best or second best player on a second round playoff team. Tatum was very impressive with his playoff run. I would take Towns, Doncic and perhaps even Young (who is actually helping the Hawks win in the second half of the year). That is just the last few years.

[Moranis]

I agree with people that have said Ayton is underrated and I would do the trade, but saying Ayton has had one of five best rookie seasons of last ten years is pretty excessive. He has been bad defensively, it looks like he has the same defensive rating as Kyrie. Mitchell was either the best or second best player on a second round playoff team. Tatum was very impressive with his playoff run. I would take Towns, Doncic and perhaps even Young (who is actually helping the Hawks win in the second half of the year). That is just the last few years.

Mitchell isn't exactly a lock down defender, and he wasn't nearly as efficient as Ayton has been offensively.  I have a hard time holding a historically (at least recently) terrible franchise against a rookie.  Ayton has been by far the best player on the Suns.  He has both the counting stats and the efficiency that are rarely seen from rookies.  And despite being on that terrible team he has directly counted for more wins than any other rookie at 5.9 WS.  Only Mitchell Robinson is within 1 WS of him.  Young has 2.8 WS.  He has a significantly worse ORTG and DRTG.  He has a much lower PER, TS%, USG%, TOV%, and on and on.  The only thing Young does better than Ayton is pass the ball and shoot 3 pointers and foul shots.  Well and to be fortunate enough to have not been drafted by the Suns.  The Suns are a disaster.  Ayton is not.

[Big333223]

I'm surprised so many would take Tatum over Ayton. Bet if you polled the 30 GM's, 3/4 of them would take Ayton.  Maybe including Danny.

I'm not even sure there is a single GM that would take Tatum over Ayton.  Ayton has probably had one of the top 5 best rookie years in the last decade (in the mix with Doncic, Towns, Lillard, Griffin).  There are arguments that his rookie year is actually better than Doncic's, though Doncic is clearly going to win the ROY.  He plays in Phoenix, who is just bad, so he doesn't get the recognition he probably deserves.

Ayton might not even have a top 5 rookie season if you look at just these last 2 years. He's going to finish behind Doncic and Young this season. Last season, Simmons and Mitchell both had better years. Then there's a real debate between him (16,10, no defense for 2nd worst team in the league) and Tatum (14-5, solid defense for a 55 win team) for 5th.

I think Ayton has generally been underrated this season but not to this degree.

His win shares are currently 5.9, which is significantly better than Doncic's (and they've played the same amount of games and Ayton is playing less minutes per game).  He is shooting over 58% from the floor and nearly 75% from the line (and it isn't just all in close, his 3-10' % is 55 and he is a very respectable 41% from 10-16').  His PER is 20.5.  He doesn't turn the ball over much (which for a rookie big man is incredibly rare).  There is no question the Suns suck, but that isn't because of Ayton. Of the regular Suns rotation, only Holmes has a better DRTG and Holmes is the only regular rotation player with a better ORTG than him as well.  They are both also the only 2 Suns whose ORTG is larger than their DRTG.  Ayton has quite simply already eclipsed Booker as the Suns best player, and he is only going to get better (while Booker is who is at this point).  Ayton's rookie year has been absolutely fabulous.  Holding him accountable for his team is just nonsense, especially when you look at how bad the Suns have been for years and years (so it isn't like they added Ayton and fell apart).

To your point: You mention is low TO's, I'll add that his assist numbers are quite good for a rookie center. 1.8 per game is better than Tatum averaged last year. He's very good and definitely underrated.

I still think it's debatable he's having a better year than Tatum had last season and I think he's clearly below Doncic and Trae Young this year.

While I don't think he needs to be "held accountable" for his team's record, it's very relevant. Putting up good numbers on a good team is harder than putting up good numbers on a bad one. If Ayton had better teamates that could boost the Suns' record, it would almost certainly negatively impact Ayton's stats. I don't blame Ayton for the team record but it is a reality that has to be factored in.

[PhoSita]

The issue with Win Shares and PER is that both stats are going to look a lot better for a rebounding big man with a high FG% than for a wing or a guard.

But of course it's a lot easier to find a big man with good WS/48 and PER than it is to find a competent two way wing with iso skills or a guard who can orchestrate a pick and roll and hit a step back 3.

[Surferdad]

I would much rather have Trae Young or Jaren Jackson Jr. than Ayton.

I also think Bagley's ceiling is higher.

Agreed. I also believe Jaren Jackson will become a star. His impact defensively is almost unbelievable. And hes not even 20 yet.

This is true.

Perhaps this is shaping up as one of the stronger draft classes in recent years.

[Chris22]

I would much rather have Trae Young or Jaren Jackson Jr. than Ayton.

I also think Bagley's ceiling is higher.

Agreed. I also believe Jaren Jackson will become a star. His impact defensively is almost unbelievable. And hes not even 20 yet.

This is true.

Perhaps this is shaping up as one of the stronger draft classes in recent years.

I think there is a bigger story here, and that is that young players today are more athletic and better prepared for the NBA than in times past. That is why I hope we hold on to our draft picks and not give them away for a one year rental of Anthony Davis.