Woj: Jrue Extends with Celtics (4 Years, $135M)

[Phantom255x]

Game 1 tickets for the very first round are going for $200 at the CHEAPEST (before taxes/fees). They can afford it 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Championships come with a price.

If the Celtics win a couple of championships, I think you'd be hard-pressed to moan & complain about the contract situations

I'd gladly see the Celtics go into cap purgatory, for several years, if it was preceded by a couple of titles.

[ozgod]

The bottom line is the new CBA makes keeping together an NBA team of 5 guys making 30+ (and two making 50+) borderline impossible. Could Wyc pay the massive tax? Sure, but it would be the largest ever paid for an NBA team. And that's before you consider the ramifications of having your draft pick frozen and sent to the end of the first round SEVEN YEARS after you are over the 2nd apron.

I think the bottom line is this: They have this year, and next year. If they win one of those years and make a deep run the next it will be hard to break the team up. A title probably buys them another year or two, even with a huge tax, because its hard to justify breaking up a title winner. But if they don't win the team will undergo some changes.

I don't automatically assume that's trading Brown, becasue a lot depends on HOW the actual games go down. Could be him, could be Holiday getting dumped, or KP maybe just becasue he doesn't stay healthy.

One thing that would help: Nailing your draft picks. Getting someone who can be a rotation guy going forward is crucial. Because Pritchard may get moved to cut cost this summer, AL and Sam both have just 1 year left as well. Walsh being a real rotation guy in the next two years would also help. We've all cheered these drfat pick trades, they've been worth it, but the c's need cheep talent now.

We're also all assuming White is a lock to stay. It's entirely possible he decides to test free agency in 2025-26 and someone offers him a max contract. Will Brad be prepared to match an offer of 30% of the salary cap (which in 2025-26 is estimated to be $155.1m) which would be $45.3m per year ($180m for 4 years)? The same year we would be signing JT to a supermax that would be in the $55m-$60m a year range? White and the Cs couldn't agree on an extension last offseason, Brad will hope to lock him up this offseason before he has a chance to test FA but who knows what will happen. Derrick could decide to bet on himself, in 2025 he would be entering his 30s. I have a feeling that Brad took that uncertainty into consideration in signing Jrue to this extension. Jrue's sacrificed a lot this season to fit in and be the glue guy but he could easily play a bigger role if we needed him to.

These are the things that make people's brains hurt when trying to build and keep a superteam like we have...so much easier to think we have a bottomless pool of money and sign everyone we want 

[tazzmaniac]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

he is expiring 4 seasons from now in year 19. And yeah there is probably value as an expiring contract, but that also means you have to acquire players making over 30 million to do so and that doesn't alleviate the salary issues.  And none of that matters if you lose White, Porzingis, or have to trade Brown because the finances are too great.  Jrue isn't worth 30 million right now, let alone as a deteriorating player well past his prime.  4 years at that money will be crippling. It is far too much money and to many years.

How do you reconcile this with the take that Wyc should have taken on Duncan Robinson's contract with the TPE?  Isn't the analysis you're making now similar to the one that Brad made then?

I do agree that you don't make this deal unless you're committed to paying the cost to keep the top-five together.  Resigning Jrue and then letting White walk would be stupid.

the roster and financial constraints aren't the same in the future as they were then and neither is DRob's cost. Robinson's contract has an early termination for 25/26, but even you kept him his salary is under 20 million.  He quite possibly will be a better player than Jrue then and makes less, and is expiring. 

I would have let Jrue pick up his option and play out next year on that. If he opted out this summer, I'd have offered him 3 years at like 80 to 90 million as I don't think he'd have done better than that on the open market.  I'd have probably gone up to 100 million in match type scenario, but more dollars or years than that is just too much.

Jrue would have certainly gotten a better offer than you suggest.  He was in high demand on the trade market which is why Brad had to give up a lot to get him.  Jrue would have jumped to the top of available free agents if he had opted out.  The Sixers already tried to trade for him and they are going to have a ton of cap space.  Jrue would be a great "3rd star" for them fitting extremely well with Embiid and Maxey.  They'd certainly have gone after Jrue hard.  Jrue's stat totals are down because of lack of opportunity.  If he'd gone to the Sixers or probably any other team, his stats totals would have been back up to his Bucks level of production. 

[ozgod]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

he is expiring 4 seasons from now in year 19. And yeah there is probably value as an expiring contract, but that also means you have to acquire players making over 30 million to do so and that doesn't alleviate the salary issues.  And none of that matters if you lose White, Porzingis, or have to trade Brown because the finances are too great.  Jrue isn't worth 30 million right now, let alone as a deteriorating player well past his prime.  4 years at that money will be crippling. It is far too much money and to many years.

How do you reconcile this with the take that Wyc should have taken on Duncan Robinson's contract with the TPE?  Isn't the analysis you're making now similar to the one that Brad made then?

I do agree that you don't make this deal unless you're committed to paying the cost to keep the top-five together.  Resigning Jrue and then letting White walk would be stupid.

the roster and financial constraints aren't the same in the future as they were then and neither is DRob's cost. Robinson's contract has an early termination for 25/26, but even you kept him his salary is under 20 million.  He quite possibly will be a better player than Jrue then and makes less, and is expiring. 

I would have let Jrue pick up his option and play out next year on that. If he opted out this summer, I'd have offered him 3 years at like 80 to 90 million as I don't think he'd have done better than that on the open market.  I'd have probably gone up to 100 million in match type scenario, but more dollars or years than that is just too much.

Jrue would have certainly gotten a better offer than you suggest.  He was in high demand on the trade market which is why Brad had to give up a lot to get him.  Jrue would have jumped to the top of available free agents if he had opted out.  The Sixers already tried to trade for him and they are going to have a ton of cap space.  Jrue would be a great "3rd star" for them fitting extremely well with Embiid and Maxey.  They'd certainly have gone after Jrue hard.  Jrue's stat totals are down because of lack of opportunity.  If he'd gone to the Sixers or probably any other team, his stats totals would have been back up to his Bucks level of production.

To me it's similar to what they did with Jaylen - we all have our own idea of what a player is "worth" which is obviously subjective and different for everyone. Just as most people didn't (and probably still don't) think Jaylen was worth a supermax paying $50m-$60m a year when he's one of the forum's favorite pinatas, people probably feel the same with Jrue with his decreased production and age. Jaylen's contract felt like an overpay, and so does Jrue's.

But if the choice is to overpay for a still productive asset to maintain control of it vs lose the asset for nothing and not be able to replace it because you would still be over the salary cap and would be limited in what you could do (especially if you ended up still over the 2nd apron), then I can see why Brad would overpay for the asset for the right to choose when to dispose of that asset, whether it's a year from now or a couple of years from now, or not at all.

Especially if the asset still has some value, it's not like it's depreciated to zero already. We got rid of Kemba, Hayward got moved, so did Simmons...there's plenty of ways you can package an underperforming asset if you somehow ended up not getting rid of it early enough. But I doubt we will have that problem with Brad in charge, he's pretty cold blooded when it comes to those things 

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if Jrue got moved if we did end up signing White to an extension next year or the year after, to fetch another asset (player) that we might need more at that point, with Horford retired. If White tests FA and we don't match it, then maybe Jrue stays.

[Moranis]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

he is expiring 4 seasons from now in year 19. And yeah there is probably value as an expiring contract, but that also means you have to acquire players making over 30 million to do so and that doesn't alleviate the salary issues.  And none of that matters if you lose White, Porzingis, or have to trade Brown because the finances are too great.  Jrue isn't worth 30 million right now, let alone as a deteriorating player well past his prime.  4 years at that money will be crippling. It is far too much money and to many years.

How do you reconcile this with the take that Wyc should have taken on Duncan Robinson's contract with the TPE?  Isn't the analysis you're making now similar to the one that Brad made then?

I do agree that you don't make this deal unless you're committed to paying the cost to keep the top-five together.  Resigning Jrue and then letting White walk would be stupid.

the roster and financial constraints aren't the same in the future as they were then and neither is DRob's cost. Robinson's contract has an early termination for 25/26, but even you kept him his salary is under 20 million.  He quite possibly will be a better player than Jrue then and makes less, and is expiring. 

I would have let Jrue pick up his option and play out next year on that. If he opted out this summer, I'd have offered him 3 years at like 80 to 90 million as I don't think he'd have done better than that on the open market.  I'd have probably gone up to 100 million in match type scenario, but more dollars or years than that is just too much.

Jrue would have certainly gotten a better offer than you suggest.  He was in high demand on the trade market which is why Brad had to give up a lot to get him.  Jrue would have jumped to the top of available free agents if he had opted out.  The Sixers already tried to trade for him and they are going to have a ton of cap space.  Jrue would be a great "3rd star" for them fitting extremely well with Embiid and Maxey.  They'd certainly have gone after Jrue hard.  Jrue's stat totals are down because of lack of opportunity.  If he'd gone to the Sixers or probably any other team, his stats totals would have been back up to his Bucks level of production.

Jrue has been getting worse for years and at some point he is going to hit the cliff and start dramatically declining. Maybe even as soon as next year. 

I don't think he'd be a good fit on the Sixers, though they may try to reunite with him.  I don't think they would have broken the bank though, that isn't how Morey does things.

[tazzmaniac]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

he is expiring 4 seasons from now in year 19. And yeah there is probably value as an expiring contract, but that also means you have to acquire players making over 30 million to do so and that doesn't alleviate the salary issues.  And none of that matters if you lose White, Porzingis, or have to trade Brown because the finances are too great.  Jrue isn't worth 30 million right now, let alone as a deteriorating player well past his prime.  4 years at that money will be crippling. It is far too much money and to many years.

How do you reconcile this with the take that Wyc should have taken on Duncan Robinson's contract with the TPE?  Isn't the analysis you're making now similar to the one that Brad made then?

I do agree that you don't make this deal unless you're committed to paying the cost to keep the top-five together.  Resigning Jrue and then letting White walk would be stupid.

the roster and financial constraints aren't the same in the future as they were then and neither is DRob's cost. Robinson's contract has an early termination for 25/26, but even you kept him his salary is under 20 million.  He quite possibly will be a better player than Jrue then and makes less, and is expiring. 

I would have let Jrue pick up his option and play out next year on that. If he opted out this summer, I'd have offered him 3 years at like 80 to 90 million as I don't think he'd have done better than that on the open market.  I'd have probably gone up to 100 million in match type scenario, but more dollars or years than that is just too much.

Jrue would have certainly gotten a better offer than you suggest.  He was in high demand on the trade market which is why Brad had to give up a lot to get him.  Jrue would have jumped to the top of available free agents if he had opted out.  The Sixers already tried to trade for him and they are going to have a ton of cap space.  Jrue would be a great "3rd star" for them fitting extremely well with Embiid and Maxey.  They'd certainly have gone after Jrue hard.  Jrue's stat totals are down because of lack of opportunity.  If he'd gone to the Sixers or probably any other team, his stats totals would have been back up to his Bucks level of production.

Jrue has been getting worse for years and at some point he is going to hit the cliff and start dramatically declining. Maybe even as soon as next year. 

I don't think he'd be a good fit on the Sixers, though they may try to reunite with him.  I don't think they would have broken the bank though, that isn't how Morey does things.

His numbers don't reflect much decline.  Roughly the same production since 2017/18 season with the best 3pt shooting of his career.  Just getting a lot less opportunity with the Celts.  You're nuts if you don't think he'd be a good fit with Embiid and especially Maxey.  Jrue is much better than whoever would be considered their 3rd option this season.  The Sixers have to spend their cap this offseason and so far the free agent class looks to be weak. 

[Kuberski33]

Game 1 tickets for the very first round are going for $200 at the CHEAPEST (before taxes/fees). They can afford it 

There was a comment earlier about it not being 'our' money. In a way, it is because they're going to need more revenue going forward and ticket prices are a part of that revenue. However because the team is built to win now - you go all in, which is what ownership is doing.

I'm not sure Holiday could have gotten this type of contract anyplace else at this point in his career. But he's also a great fit here so it is what it is. But fans will also pay a premium to go watch this team play for the remainder of the J & J era.

[Moranis]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

It’s neither horrid nor indefensible.  It’s certainly tradable in 3 seasons when it’s expiring, even if his play has deteriorated, and also tradable over the next two seasons if he continues to play well.  The % of cap hit would be down considerably in 2027-28 compared to 2023-24.  Keeping the core intact through 2026-27 makes sense if it’s possible.  The  hardest part of building a perennial contender is assembling and maintaining a balanced, high level, starting five.  The easier part is then developing young contributors, adding inexpensive banner-seeking vets, and using the exceptions to round out the roster.

Part of the argument has to be, if you aren’t going to pay Jrue, who do you have instead? You aren’t opening cap space for free agency by losing Jrue, so you’d be looking to trade him at less than 100 cents on the dollar if he opts in, and risk losing him outright if he doesn’t.

he is expiring 4 seasons from now in year 19. And yeah there is probably value as an expiring contract, but that also means you have to acquire players making over 30 million to do so and that doesn't alleviate the salary issues.  And none of that matters if you lose White, Porzingis, or have to trade Brown because the finances are too great.  Jrue isn't worth 30 million right now, let alone as a deteriorating player well past his prime.  4 years at that money will be crippling. It is far too much money and to many years.

How do you reconcile this with the take that Wyc should have taken on Duncan Robinson's contract with the TPE?  Isn't the analysis you're making now similar to the one that Brad made then?

I do agree that you don't make this deal unless you're committed to paying the cost to keep the top-five together.  Resigning Jrue and then letting White walk would be stupid.

the roster and financial constraints aren't the same in the future as they were then and neither is DRob's cost. Robinson's contract has an early termination for 25/26, but even you kept him his salary is under 20 million.  He quite possibly will be a better player than Jrue then and makes less, and is expiring. 

I would have let Jrue pick up his option and play out next year on that. If he opted out this summer, I'd have offered him 3 years at like 80 to 90 million as I don't think he'd have done better than that on the open market.  I'd have probably gone up to 100 million in match type scenario, but more dollars or years than that is just too much.

Jrue would have certainly gotten a better offer than you suggest.  He was in high demand on the trade market which is why Brad had to give up a lot to get him.  Jrue would have jumped to the top of available free agents if he had opted out.  The Sixers already tried to trade for him and they are going to have a ton of cap space.  Jrue would be a great "3rd star" for them fitting extremely well with Embiid and Maxey.  They'd certainly have gone after Jrue hard.  Jrue's stat totals are down because of lack of opportunity.  If he'd gone to the Sixers or probably any other team, his stats totals would have been back up to his Bucks level of production.

Jrue has been getting worse for years and at some point he is going to hit the cliff and start dramatically declining. Maybe even as soon as next year. 

I don't think he'd be a good fit on the Sixers, though they may try to reunite with him.  I don't think they would have broken the bank though, that isn't how Morey does things.

His numbers don't reflect much decline.  Roughly the same production since 2017/18 season with the best 3pt shooting of his career.  Just getting a lot less opportunity with the Celts.  You're nuts if you don't think he'd be a good fit with Embiid and especially Maxey.  Jrue is much better than whoever would be considered their 3rd option this season.  The Sixers have to spend their cap this offseason and so far the free agent class looks to be weak.

He has been on a slight decline for the last 4 seasons, with his peak his 1st year in Milwaukee.  Things like WS/48, BPM, etc. on the downward slope. His game is also changing as he is taking the fewest percentage of shots from 0-3 in his entire career this year, so he is moving away from the basket and while his 3 point percentage is remaining solid, his percentages from both 10-16 and 16 to 3 have continued on a downward trend.  He is becoming much more a catch and shoot player as well, which he is doing fine with this year, but he isn't a consistent enough shooter in his career to make a living as just that sort of player.  The team is also better with him on the bench for the first time since his rookie year.  Jrue is in his 15th season.  He has played in 974 games which is 18th among active players.  There is a lot of mileage on those legs. 

[Big333223]

Quick reality check on exactly how much this contract is: There are currently 42 players under contract for next season who will be making more than $31 mil. After new contracts are signed this summer, I expect Jrue will be outside the top 45 in salaries and probably lower.

As the cap continues to rise, taking bigger jumps with the new media deal on its way, I'm not worried about the amount at all.

[Kernewek]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

This is where I sit as well, but I also think that, given the bolded, it was unavoidable. If we wind up with a ring this year or next, it's worthwhile, but it'll go down as a pretty brutal overpay if not.

It's certainly reflective of ownership's desire not to be caught holding the bag again this season when it comes to curbed spending.

[cman88]

the same fans crying its an overpay and we should have let him go...

would be crying that Wyc is cheap had we not paid or kept him..

[Vermont Green]

I think there are several things affecting Holiday's performance on the Celtics this season.  First, I think it is harder to integrate a new player into a core rotation role than most fans seems to recognize.  Look at Derrick White his first season.  He came at the deadline, so that is even harder than coming in in the offseason, but Holiday was kind of at the end of the off season.  Second is role, he is accepting a role where he is not featured as much so his offensive stats are going to decline some.  Plus he is playing next to White who is pretty much the same player in terms of role.  And the third is age related decline.  I think this is the least of the 3 at this point, but it is a factor.  He is 33.  Decline is expected and will continue.

I get why they extended him.  I don't think this will every be a "bad" contract.  One less year maybe would have been better, more team friendly, but a little more or less money would not have made all that much difference.  I predict that if White is extended, that one of White, Brown, or Holiday will get traded for one or more players that are more like Horford, a PF/C type.  It could be a 1 for 1 trade or a 1 for 2 or more trade (although probably not more than 2).

I have always felt that a good play off team needs at least 3 good bigs.  MIL for example has Giannis, Lopez, and Portis.  BOS right now has only Porzingis and Horford.  There are always exceptions but that 3rd big on BOS has been an issue.  And it is going to be an even bigger issue as Horford gets closer to retirement.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Stevens may be the best GM in the NBA. Every big decision he's executed flawlessly. And he is learning how to work around the edges of the roster with Mazz.