NBA 2015 Combine

[Beat LA]

. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol . Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).

No it's not, and that's not what I'm saying.  I also never even bother with PER.  What I am stating, however, is that watching KO drive to the basket really makes me cringe, because it looks like he's going in slow motion, and not in a good way, and his shots come, by and large, from pick-and-pops, and spacing, not to mention his pump fake , if someone is actually dumb enough to go for it.  Yes, that can enable him to get to the basket, but Kelly's only method of creating his own shot is the aforementioned pump fake.  In two years, and contrary to scouting reports coming out of college, I have rarely seen him in the post, where he's simply not very good.  Sure, he'll take the occasional Dirk fadeaway, but I can only ever recall seeing one hook shot of any kind from him, and that came in a game last year against the Lakers in Boston, when he was being guarded by the immortal Ryan Kelly (sarcasm), lol . All I want to know is whatever happened to these supposedly great back-to-the-basket moves, because I'm still waiting to see any of them.  Ugh.

Additionally, since he's been primarily coming off the bench, his drives or whatever are largely coming against, well, other bench guys, and he's never been assigned the type of defensive coverages which Cousins, Josh Smith, Millsap, and Diaw have faced.  Now, granted, this year, Diaw and Smith largely came off the bench, but when the game is on the line, both of those guys are almost always out there against some of the best defenders, so I don't see how Olynyk is even remotely on their level.

As an aside, I can understand your liking of Sully (I like him too, even though I think his weight issues are simply too much of a risk moving forward, and I cannot forget his brush with the law in regards to domestic violence, which is completely unacceptable to me, and you, I'm sure, as well), but not KO.  Would you mind explaining why?  I'm just curious.

[Celtics18]

. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol . Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).

No it's not, and that's not what I'm saying.  I also never even bother with PER.  What I am stating, however, is that watching KO drive to the basket really makes me cringe, because it looks like he's going in slow motion, and not in a good way, and his shots come, by and large, from pick-and-pops, and spacing, not to mention his pump fake , if someone is actually dumb enough to go for it.  Yes, that can enable him to get to the basket, but Kelly's only method of creating his own shot is the aforementioned pump fake.  In two years, and contrary to scouting reports coming out of college, I have rarely seen him in the post, where he's simply not very good.  Sure, he'll take the occasional Dirk fadeaway, but I can only ever recall seeing one hook shot of any kind from him, and that came in a game last year against the Lakers in Boston, when he was being guarded by the immortal Ryan Kelly (sarcasm), lol . All I want to know is whatever happened to these supposedly great back-to-the-basket moves, because I'm still waiting to see any of them.  Ugh.

Additionally, since he's been primarily coming off the bench, his drives or whatever are largely coming against, well, other bench guys, and he's never been assigned the type of defensive coverages which Cousins, Josh Smith, Millsap, and Diaw have faced.  Now, granted, this year, Diaw and Smith largely came off the bench, but when the game is on the line, both of those guys are almost always out there against some of the best defenders, so I don't see how Olynyk is even remotely on their level.

As an aside, I can understand your liking of Sully (I like him too, even though I think his weight issues are simply too much of a risk moving forward, and I cannot forget his brush with the law in regards to domestic violence, which is completely unacceptable to me, and you, I'm sure, as well), but not KO.  Would you mind explaining why?  I'm just curious.

You mention his "pump fake" as one of his main weapons in being able to get in to the lane.  I absolutely agree that this is one of his strengths.  Defenders bite on said pump fake, because if they don't, they know Kelly can drain the three.  This is part of what makes him an effective player. 

As to your points about his low post game, I don't think anyone is arguing that he's a good low post player.  He's hardly been used in that capacity to this point in his pro career.   Hopefully, as he gets older and more mature, it's something he can start to add into his game. 

I do wish he were used more in the high post and that coach Stevens found more ways to get him the ball around the elbows than have him start most of his possessions from out beyond the three point line.

[Beat LA]

. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol . Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).

No it's not, and that's not what I'm saying.  I also never even bother with PER.  What I am stating, however, is that watching KO drive to the basket really makes me cringe, because it looks like he's going in slow motion, and not in a good way, and his shots come, by and large, from pick-and-pops, and spacing, not to mention his pump fake , if someone is actually dumb enough to go for it.  Yes, that can enable him to get to the basket, but Kelly's only method of creating his own shot is the aforementioned pump fake.  In two years, and contrary to scouting reports coming out of college, I have rarely seen him in the post, where he's simply not very good.  Sure, he'll take the occasional Dirk fadeaway, but I can only ever recall seeing one hook shot of any kind from him, and that came in a game last year against the Lakers in Boston, when he was being guarded by the immortal Ryan Kelly (sarcasm), lol . All I want to know is whatever happened to these supposedly great back-to-the-basket moves, because I'm still waiting to see any of them.  Ugh.

Additionally, since he's been primarily coming off the bench, his drives or whatever are largely coming against, well, other bench guys, and he's never been assigned the type of defensive coverages which Cousins, Josh Smith, Millsap, and Diaw have faced.  Now, granted, this year, Diaw and Smith largely came off the bench, but when the game is on the line, both of those guys are almost always out there against some of the best defenders, so I don't see how Olynyk is even remotely on their level.

As an aside, I can understand your liking of Sully (I like him too, even though I think his weight issues are simply too much of a risk moving forward, and I cannot forget his brush with the law in regards to domestic violence, which is completely unacceptable to me, and you, I'm sure, as well), but not KO.  Would you mind explaining why?  I'm just curious.

You mention his "pump fake" as one of his main weapons in being able to get in to the lane.  I absolutely agree that this is one of his strengths.  Defenders bite on said pump fake, because if they don't, they know Kelly can drain the three.  This is part of what makes him an effective player. 

As to your points about his low post game, I don't think anyone is arguing that he's a good low post player.  He's hardly been used in that capacity to this point in his pro career.   Hopefully, as he gets older and more mature, it's something he can start to add into his game. 

I do wish he were used more in the high post and that coach Stevens found more ways to get him the ball around the elbows than have him start most of his possessions from out beyond the three point line.

In terms of getting in the lane, yes, I agree, but it seems like it's his only weapon, and most of the time it's useless because he refuses to shoot.  The defense isn't going to go for it if you make the same pump fake every time you have the ball, and it at least seems that way with KO.

As for his low-post scoring, or severe lack thereof, of course I wasn't suggesting that people are calling him an excellent, or even passable, post player, but that's my fault for not being clear on that one.  Sorry about that.  What I meant was that, iirc, at the time he was drafted, his allegedly superb post play, in addition to his passing and 3-point shot, was supposed to be one of his main selling points, and all I'm saying is that I'm still waiting to see any of it, lol .

[Celtics18]

. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol . Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).

No it's not, and that's not what I'm saying.  I also never even bother with PER.  What I am stating, however, is that watching KO drive to the basket really makes me cringe, because it looks like he's going in slow motion, and not in a good way, and his shots come, by and large, from pick-and-pops, and spacing, not to mention his pump fake , if someone is actually dumb enough to go for it.  Yes, that can enable him to get to the basket, but Kelly's only method of creating his own shot is the aforementioned pump fake.  In two years, and contrary to scouting reports coming out of college, I have rarely seen him in the post, where he's simply not very good.  Sure, he'll take the occasional Dirk fadeaway, but I can only ever recall seeing one hook shot of any kind from him, and that came in a game last year against the Lakers in Boston, when he was being guarded by the immortal Ryan Kelly (sarcasm), lol . All I want to know is whatever happened to these supposedly great back-to-the-basket moves, because I'm still waiting to see any of them.  Ugh.

Additionally, since he's been primarily coming off the bench, his drives or whatever are largely coming against, well, other bench guys, and he's never been assigned the type of defensive coverages which Cousins, Josh Smith, Millsap, and Diaw have faced.  Now, granted, this year, Diaw and Smith largely came off the bench, but when the game is on the line, both of those guys are almost always out there against some of the best defenders, so I don't see how Olynyk is even remotely on their level.

As an aside, I can understand your liking of Sully (I like him too, even though I think his weight issues are simply too much of a risk moving forward, and I cannot forget his brush with the law in regards to domestic violence, which is completely unacceptable to me, and you, I'm sure, as well), but not KO.  Would you mind explaining why?  I'm just curious.

You mention his "pump fake" as one of his main weapons in being able to get in to the lane.  I absolutely agree that this is one of his strengths.  Defenders bite on said pump fake, because if they don't, they know Kelly can drain the three.  This is part of what makes him an effective player. 

As to your points about his low post game, I don't think anyone is arguing that he's a good low post player.  He's hardly been used in that capacity to this point in his pro career.   Hopefully, as he gets older and more mature, it's something he can start to add into his game. 

I do wish he were used more in the high post and that coach Stevens found more ways to get him the ball around the elbows than have him start most of his possessions from out beyond the three point line.

In terms of getting in the lane, yes, I agree, but it seems like it's his only weapon, and most of the time it's useless because he refuses to shoot. The defense isn't going to go for it if you make the same pump fake every time you have the ball, and it at least seems that way with KO.

As for his low-post scoring, or severe lack thereof, of course I wasn't suggesting that people are calling him an excellent, or even passable, post player, but that's my fault for not being clear on that one.  Sorry about that.  What I meant was that, iirc, at the time he was drafted, his allegedly superb post play, in addition to his passing and 3-point shot, was supposed to be one of his main selling points, and all I'm saying is that I'm still waiting to see any of it, lol .

As I pointed out, it only seems that way.  In fact, he scores at a fairly good rate when he gets in the lane relative to other players in the league. 

It's hard to fathom how he could be scoring those points in the lane if he refuses to shoot. 

[TheFlex]

. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol . Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).

No it's not, and that's not what I'm saying.  I also never even bother with PER.  What I am stating, however, is that watching KO drive to the basket really makes me cringe, because it looks like he's going in slow motion, and not in a good way, and his shots come, by and large, from pick-and-pops, and spacing, not to mention his pump fake , if someone is actually dumb enough to go for it.  Yes, that can enable him to get to the basket, but Kelly's only method of creating his own shot is the aforementioned pump fake.  In two years, and contrary to scouting reports coming out of college, I have rarely seen him in the post, where he's simply not very good.  Sure, he'll take the occasional Dirk fadeaway, but I can only ever recall seeing one hook shot of any kind from him, and that came in a game last year against the Lakers in Boston, when he was being guarded by the immortal Ryan Kelly (sarcasm), lol . All I want to know is whatever happened to these supposedly great back-to-the-basket moves, because I'm still waiting to see any of them.  Ugh.

Additionally, since he's been primarily coming off the bench, his drives or whatever are largely coming against, well, other bench guys, and he's never been assigned the type of defensive coverages which Cousins, Josh Smith, Millsap, and Diaw have faced.  Now, granted, this year, Diaw and Smith largely came off the bench, but when the game is on the line, both of those guys are almost always out there against some of the best defenders, so I don't see how Olynyk is even remotely on their level.

As an aside, I can understand your liking of Sully (I like him too, even though I think his weight issues are simply too much of a risk moving forward, and I cannot forget his brush with the law in regards to domestic violence, which is completely unacceptable to me, and you, I'm sure, as well), but not KO.  Would you mind explaining why?  I'm just curious.

I know you don't bother with PER, that's why I think it's important to understand the difference between PER and other stats. PER can legitimately be critiqued. I disagree that tracking metrics can.

Because of laziness in my prior couple of posts I will have to "move the goalposts" here in order to get across my primary argument.

Equating efficiency off dribble penetration to PPG/RPG/APG as evidence of shot creating ability and scoring ability/rebounding ability/passing ability, respectively, was a mistake of mine. While rebounding ability is determined entirely by RPG (thanks to our ability to track the number of rebounds a player comes down with per game), shot creation is determined by a multitude of things; primarily outside shooting, dribble penetration skills, passing ability and finishing ability (all accessible to the average fan thanks to our ability to track the success rate of all such actions). But I remain firm that the characteristics of such numbers differ very little. If the consensus is that KO is a good outside shooter for his position/role (48% eFG% from outside 10 feet), a good dribble penetrator for his position/role (C18's stat), a good passer for his position/role (2.8 apg/36 mins, a/TO ratio > 1) and a really good finisher for his position/role (68% conversion rate of shots within 3 feet), how can anyone still feel confident saying that their eyes tell them such a player can't create his own shot?

It would be one thing for you to say "I disagree that Kelly Olynyk is a good offensive player based on his PER" because PER attempts to quantify a player's offensive performance by combining the statistical impact of various offensive actions that cannot be equated by using 1 unit of measure. It's another to refute tracking stats that confirm adequacy or above in individual aspects of an offensive player's game from the perimeter in the same way that RPG confirms adequacy or above as a rebounder (by merely tracking how often a player is successful following a particular on court action). The only two stats manipulated in the five I used to verify Kelly's offensive versatility are a/TO ratio and eFG%, and the manipulation done can easily be seen and tolerated by the average basketball fan (unlike PER, which is rather complicated to grasp). I think your bias against stats is preventing you from recognizing the difference between a simple tracking metric and an advanced metric. If you don't discriminate against stats as part of the discussion, accept Kelly's numbers as being above average for each individual offensive trait, and also accept that the combination of such traits make up a shot creator based on conventional basketball wisdom, I'm just not getting how "his methods aren't pleasing to the eye" remains a credible counterargument.

I also think your displeasure with today's modern pace and space basketball -- more so its demand for more outside shooting from big men than ever -- is contributing to your negative view of Kelly. If Olynyk was posting the exact same PPG he did this season and statistically rated as a good to great inside finisher off traditional post moves as he does a good to great outside shooter, I can't help but think you'd believe he was a good offensive player. The reality is that it really doesn't matter how Kelly scores how he does -- and I believe some modern coaches even prefer Kelly's process of scoring vs. back-to-the-basket.

With regards to your excuse that Kelly comes off the bench, how about the fact that Kelly is the youngest out of all of those big men you mentioned? That seems like something worth mentioning. And with respect to your claim regarding being on the end of the floor at the end of close games, it really doesn't hold substantial water. According to 82games, while Diaw was on the floor 50% of the time during "clutch play" (5 mins left, +/- 5 point difference) and Kelly only saw 27%, Josh Smith only saw 5% more, playing 32% of the time during clutch play. And of those three, Kelly had the highest win percentage (63.2% vs. Smith's 62.5% vs. Diaw's 44%).

I like Kelly, don't love him, don't hate him. I think he's an extremely talented in a number of areas bigs aren't normally talented in, while lacking in areas they typically dominate in. Luckily for Kelly, the game is moving away from halfcourt/low-post play and rewards finesse bigs who can pass and shoot the rock. At the end of the day I think his biggest supporters overrate his offensive ability because rebounding is still a very important skill for any forward/center (at best an average rebounder) and he commits more turnovers than they'd like to admit (Sullinger, consistently viewed as a lesser passer, has a superior a/TO ratio). I think his status as a starter is questionable unless he's flanked defensively by above-average athletes on the perimeter and at the 5. Conversely, the biggest problem I have with his critics is that Kelly is derided for his need to have good defensive players next to him, and yet the majority of the league's players need teams catered to their styles, including some stars (and one of your personal favorites, Rajon Rondo). I think at this point it's safe to say his floor is an efficient scorer off the bench for a playoff team, while his ceiling could very well be a taller/less athletic Boris Diaw. That's a really good player, and one that could definitely start for a championship contender on the right team.

Finally, I strongly disapprove of domestic violence, but understand that Sully is just a young kid and everyone makes mistakes. And, not to be kind of a jerk, but that stuff is kind of irrelevant when it comes to judging a player strictly based on his basketball prowess.

[Beat LA]

To TheFlex - in an attempt to conserve space , here's my response.

First of all, TP for the essay, lol , in addition to your outstanding in depth analysis.  I should like to clarify one thing, however, and that is your perception that I'm anti-stats, or whatever.  I'm not.  In fact, as I've stated many times on here, I'm a numbers guy.  The problem that I see developing right now is the Bill James effect on basketball, if you will.  Everyone seems to be designing all of these different formulas that supposedly show how effective someone really is, instead of just watching film, haha . In other words, they're trying to find the basketball equivalent, as far as I can tell, of on-base percentage, when there really isn't one.  +/- might be the closest, but even then, there are simply too many variables in a basketball game to accurately come to some mathematical conclusion about player x.  What about the other four guys in relation to him?  Perhaps they should track that, as more of a lineups-based +/-.  That way, it could potentially be easier for a coach to identify who plays the best together, and at what times.  Hmm, that actually doesn't sound that bad.  I'm trademarking this sh!t right now, lol (sarcasm) .

Like everything else, however, it has it's limitations, because in theory, especially given the fact that it's almost 3am, ahaha , it wouldn't take account into the lineup changes of the opposition, or even that perhaps some guy had a career night because he exploited foul trouble, or something, which means that we need another stat, which brings me right back to my original point - at some, well, point , this starts to become paralysis by over analysis (sorry, that phrase just seems to fit perfectly here ).  You get so caught up in all of the details that you can't see the forest for the trees (something that I've always struggled with, lol ).

Okay, now that that's over , let's move onto KO, and for this part I won't call him Nolynyk, but I can't promise anything about billy goats . As always, you make excellent points, and you're obviously right about his age relative to the others, and to be perfectly honest, I was thinking of the playoffs, and how the Rockets always seem to have Smith out there in crunch time, and the same applies for the others.  I'd love it if Olynyk became Diaw, but here's the difference between the two, besides the superior passing ability and post play of Boris - defense, believe it or not, haha . Have you forgotten how Diaw completely befuddled Lebron, and guarded him during a number of key moments, over the last two finals?  I know that Leonard gets a lot of the praise, and deservedly so, but the ultimate surprise in both series was seeing a 30-31 year old Diaw stopping a 28-29 year old Lebron, which means that it's not a liability, defensively, to have Diaw on the court in critical situations, and I hate to break it to you, but KO has never been, nor will he ever be, able to move his feet that way and stay with someone like Lebron.  I suppose, too, that we should factor in team defense when talking about Diaw's successes against Lebron, but then we'd need another stat, by which time my head is starting to hurt and I can no longer remember what we're talking about, lol .

I mean, if you wanted to, you could get crazily obsessive with this stuff.  Take 'shot-creation' , for example (sorry, I just hate all of these dumb new terms.  You crazy kids and your rock and roll (sarcasm), lol !).  Now, because he's not like Pierce, Joe Johnson, Kobe, Wade, Lebron, Melo, George, Harden, Durant, Rudy Gay (I think), Kyrie, Bradley Beal, Wall, Tony Parker, Rose, Steph Curry, or even Jimmy Butler (this is all off the top of my head, btw ), how does KO get most of his shots if he's not spotting up or on the break?  Well, it's obviously the pick and roll, and in such a situation, who is really creating the shot?  Is it the point guard who plays drive-and-kick?  Is it because of the opposition's defense (fighting over the top, going under, hedging, double teaming, the ice thingy, lol , etc.)?  Or is it because of the effectiveness of the pick set by, in this case, Olynyk?  Sometimes guys play the same defense against the play even when the pick never actually picked them off in the first place, but in any case, think of the possibilities, statistically, muahaha (sarcasm) . Now we need a stat that factors in the defense being played by the opponent, a stat that shows who the most effective pick-setters are , as well as who the worst pick-setters are, never mind another stat that reveals who makes the best passes that lead to makes.  I'm not familiar with any of this stuff, as you can tell, btw , and I'm not being sarcastic, so let's call it ppp - points per pass (although, correct me if I'm wrong, that acronym is already used for points per possession, or something, right?).  Once that's finished, why not have a stat for who catches the ball the best, and, conversely, the worst, and from whom, so that we can determine the most effective pick-and-pop combination , because some guys have better hands than others?  For example, look at how Rondo got Zeller going with his outstanding passes.  Sure, they were great assists, but if Zeller can't catch anything, it won't matter. 

After that, why not have a stat that indicates the most effective points-per-pass from different areas on the floor in pick and rolls, like the middle and side ones, and what about the rarely used big guy to big guy pick and roll.  Next, we'll need a stat to determine who has the best points-per-pass with their left, right, and both hands, as well as the accompanying stats for who catches said passes the best, never mind the defense being played against the play, such as 'active hands' or 'high hands' as mentioned by momma, there goes that man , and notorious JVG . This is where we are right now, ahaha -



It's all just too much for me - sorry.

Finally, let's talk about how KO scores his points.  It's not that I don't like 'pace and space' , but all that is is a fancy term for the old story, as Hubie would say - speed and shooting, or whatever you want to call it.  Again, you're absolutely right about my preference for big guys to play like big guys, but I'd still be very concerned, at the very least, about KO moving forward given his various deficiencies, especially defensively.  Contrary to what you might believe, it is very important on the way in which guys score their points, particularly at playoff time.  Jump shooting teams don't win titles, historically.  Look no further than the originator of this trend in the bad boy pistons, who ran the majority of their guard-dominated offense through pick and rolls with Laimbeer.  Early on, yes, they scored a ton of points (well, technically this is pre-bad boys, but bear with me), but not until they drastically revamped their offense by trading Kelly Tripucka for Adrian Dantley, which gave them, for the first time, a post player, and Rodman and Salley gave them the athleticism, rebounding, and defense necessary to become a contender.  However, if wasn't until they acquired James Edwards, who could, yes, hit the midrange shot, but was a traditional back-to-the-basket big man with that nearly unblockable fadeaway, that they finally made it over the hump in the eastern conference, which also occurred because we were beat up, aging, had no bench (sound familiar ?), and the death of Len Bias cannot be overstated enough in this discussion, either.  Anyway, my point being that even that team needed a post presence, and at the end of the game, would you rather take a jump hook or a 3, because the game is won inside.  I don't mind if a guy can hit that shot, but the primary focus should always be, for big men, imo, to play inside, because it makes the game so much easier for everyone else when you have a dominant post player, or two, or three, haha .

The stretch four also doesn't put said guy in position to grab any offensive rebounds, nor does it allow you to attack your opponent and get them in foul trouble, which was always a huge factor until someone, somewhere down the line, decided to stop doing it.  If you don't believe that inside scoring matters, take it straight from no other than the very same Isiah Thomas whose teams pioneered this style of play (mainly out of necessity).  I know that I've posted this clip before, btw, and you've probably seen it, so sorry about that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZOlUiIxDiA

Anyway, that's it for now.  I've got to go to sleep.  I believe we've successfully started the basketball equivalent of the federalist papers, though, ahaha .

[Beat LA]

. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol . Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).

No it's not, and that's not what I'm saying.  I also never even bother with PER.  What I am stating, however, is that watching KO drive to the basket really makes me cringe, because it looks like he's going in slow motion, and not in a good way, and his shots come, by and large, from pick-and-pops, and spacing, not to mention his pump fake , if someone is actually dumb enough to go for it.  Yes, that can enable him to get to the basket, but Kelly's only method of creating his own shot is the aforementioned pump fake.  In two years, and contrary to scouting reports coming out of college, I have rarely seen him in the post, where he's simply not very good.  Sure, he'll take the occasional Dirk fadeaway, but I can only ever recall seeing one hook shot of any kind from him, and that came in a game last year against the Lakers in Boston, when he was being guarded by the immortal Ryan Kelly (sarcasm), lol . All I want to know is whatever happened to these supposedly great back-to-the-basket moves, because I'm still waiting to see any of them.  Ugh.

Additionally, since he's been primarily coming off the bench, his drives or whatever are largely coming against, well, other bench guys, and he's never been assigned the type of defensive coverages which Cousins, Josh Smith, Millsap, and Diaw have faced.  Now, granted, this year, Diaw and Smith largely came off the bench, but when the game is on the line, both of those guys are almost always out there against some of the best defenders, so I don't see how Olynyk is even remotely on their level.

As an aside, I can understand your liking of Sully (I like him too, even though I think his weight issues are simply too much of a risk moving forward, and I cannot forget his brush with the law in regards to domestic violence, which is completely unacceptable to me, and you, I'm sure, as well), but not KO.  Would you mind explaining why?  I'm just curious.

You mention his "pump fake" as one of his main weapons in being able to get in to the lane.  I absolutely agree that this is one of his strengths.  Defenders bite on said pump fake, because if they don't, they know Kelly can drain the three.  This is part of what makes him an effective player. 

As to your points about his low post game, I don't think anyone is arguing that he's a good low post player.  He's hardly been used in that capacity to this point in his pro career.   Hopefully, as he gets older and more mature, it's something he can start to add into his game. 

I do wish he were used more in the high post and that coach Stevens found more ways to get him the ball around the elbows than have him start most of his possessions from out beyond the three point line.

In terms of getting in the lane, yes, I agree, but it seems like it's his only weapon, and most of the time it's useless because he refuses to shoot. The defense isn't going to go for it if you make the same pump fake every time you have the ball, and it at least seems that way with KO.

As for his low-post scoring, or severe lack thereof, of course I wasn't suggesting that people are calling him an excellent, or even passable, post player, but that's my fault for not being clear on that one.  Sorry about that.  What I meant was that, iirc, at the time he was drafted, his allegedly superb post play, in addition to his passing and 3-point shot, was supposed to be one of his main selling points, and all I'm saying is that I'm still waiting to see any of it, lol .

As I pointed out, it only seems that way.  In fact, he scores at a fairly good rate when he gets in the lane relative to other players in the league. 

It's hard to fathom how he could be scoring those points in the lane if he refuses to shoot.

You're probably right, but like you said, it can certainly seem that way.

[TheFlex]

To TheFlex - in an attempt to conserve space , here's my response.

First of all, TP for the essay, lol ...

It's rare to find someone on the Internet who actually cares enough about what you have to say to read your comments and change their mind on an issue because of them. I don't think we'll ever fully see eye to eye on KO, but I think we've "seen the light," so to speak, of both sides of the argument. TP. Also your post was funny. Another TP.

I will agree to disagree with you on the impact Kelly can have as the roller in the P&R. If Kelly frees himself of occasional stage fright with the open rim in front of him, he could be devastating at the top of the key in the P&R. He has the shooting touch to drill 3s and the instinct and ball handling ability to blow past recovering defenders and take it all the way to the rim (where he converts quite efficiently).

Additionally, Kelly's size is a nightmare out beyond the 3 point arc for reasons including but not limited to: 1) Kelly's above average passing ability and height allow him to find players while slashing the paint that typical cutters can't get the ball to; 2) While not a bruiser compared to the semi-circle's usual inhabitants, Kelly is stronger, wider and just overall larger than the vast majority of wings. Either Kelly is being guarded by his own man -- thus drawing a rival rebounder out of the post and negating his own lack of positioning in the post that you mention as a concern -- or by a wing, who he can dominate physically and keep the ball away from, despite inferior quickness, because of superior size/length (again, in comparison to wings) and sound dribbling ability. I agree with you that Kelly has a long way to go mentally in order to be that cold blooded killer coming off the P&R or pick and pop, but those are the things I see that encourage me while watching him.

In regards to potential bias of the stats I used to suggest Olynyk was a bench contributor late in the game at the level of Diaw or Smoove, I will say that I noticed as the year went on that Kelly had to prove to Brad all game that he deserved to finish the game over Zeller if he wanted to be in the game for crunch time. Though I can't prove that, this would mean that Kelly on average had played a promising game up until the final 5 minutes more so than an established coach's favorite like Diaw would have to in order to be in the game at that point. This would make it more likely that he'd finish the game as strongly as he had otherwise played it. That could possibly explain why Olynyk had a much higher winning percentage than Diaw this season late in games. It also would make sense that this is why he posted similar crunch time stats to the also quite talented but equally inconsistent Josh Smith.

Also agree to disagree that 4 out spread/1 big inside (2009 ORL Magic) can't make the game as easy as 2 traditional post players can.

There are some other things here and there whose worthiness of argument I can't determine, so I will leave it at that. Another TP.