Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer

[saltlover]

That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

You do know that Kyrie and Smart went down at the same time, correct?  Smart played in exactly zero games in the regular season in which Rozier started, and averaged 5 minutes more per game overall despite Rozier picking up a ton of minutes after both Kyrie and Smart went down.  There’s no trend.

EDIT: Also, you cite Smart’s mere 24.2 MPG in February, which occurred in the four games post all-star break.  In those same four games, Rozier averaged only 22.3 minutes, and the only game in which he played more than Smart was a 28 point blowout of the Hornets, in which he got some of the garbage time minutes and no one on the roster played more than 24 minutes (Rozier got the most PT of anyone).

There’s no evidence that, during the regular season when both players were healthy, that Rozier was ahead of Smart in the rotation.  None, even after Rozier had started to break out in the second half.

[PAOBoston]

That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

Frankly, I see zero chance that our five best players will only play 30 minutes a game.

I don't think it that out of the question. Irving led the C's in minutes and barely played over 32. Ditto for Horford who was like 31.5. Brad loves rotations and limiting minutes during regular season.

[action781]

That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

OK, fair argument regarding Rozier's ascension.  But Rozier's minutes expansion in the playoffs was partly because we needed a point guard in Kyrie's absence.  If Horford was the one hurt, we'd see Monroe get tons of additional playoff minutes over Semi but that wouldn't mean that he's gaining favor in the organization.  Let's go back to your positional breakdown since I can see the merit in that.  Sticking to saltlovers totals, that can be broken down as:

1:  Kyrie (30) / Rozier (13) / Smart (5)
2:  Jaylen (16) / Rozier (12) / Smart (17) / Hayward (3)
3:  Hayward (17) / Jaylen (14) / Tatum (14) / Smart (3)
4:  Tatum (16) / Hayward (10) / Morris (22)
5:  Horford (30) / Theis (15) / Morris (3)

Granted, positional designations aren't that meaningful in Stevens' system, I don't think we'll see Hayward "at the 2" very much.  Him playing at the SG would essentially require three of Kyrie/Rozier/Jaylen/Smart to be on the bench at the same time while three of Horford/Morris/Theis/Tatum are on the floor.  It will happen, but not a ton, roughly as often as Kyrie/Rozier/Smart share the floor together.

[mmmmm]

That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

You do know that Kyrie and Smart went down at the same time, correct?  Smart played in exactly zero games in the regular season in which Rozier started, and averaged 5 minutes more per game overall despite Rozier picking up a ton of minutes after both Kyrie and Smart went down.  There’s no trend.

EDIT: Also, you cite Smart’s mere 24.2 MPG in February, which occurred in the four games post all-star break.  In those same four games, Rozier averaged only 22.3 minutes, and the only game in which he played more than Smart was a 28 point blowout of the Hornets, in which he got some of the garbage time minutes and no one on the roster played more than 24 minutes (Rozier got the most PT of anyone).

There’s no evidence that, during the regular season when both players were healthy, that Rozier was ahead of Smart in the rotation.  None, even after Rozier had started to break out in the second half.

Mea culpa on individual regular season games -- 'shoulda checked the game logs.   The overall trend there was more of a close tie in usage. 

I think my overall position is still well supported by what happened in the playoffs, though.   Stevens leaned extremely heavily on Rozier in the playoffs, with the latter logging 31+ minutes in all but one game and 35+ in the vast majority of them.   Smart, meanwhile broke 35+ in just one playoff game and was under 30 in a full third of them.

And you still haven't addressed the core positional issue on next year's roster:   Where is Smart getting his minutes?  Is he taking them back from Kyrie or Rozier?   Is he taking them from Gordon or Jaylen?

Sure, if guys get injured, it's nice to have a quality bench guy to lean on that you feel okay giving 25-30 minutes to.  But how much money do you tie up with on that guy if he's _supposed_ to only get 10-15 mpg if everyone is healthy?   And how many years do you sign him for?  Three?  Four?  Jaylen is going to need to be resigned in 2020.   The cost of that will have tax compounded on it already.   Paying the premium on the last year or two of a bench player's contract for the same position?  Not good financing.

[Sophomore]

It all depends on whether you think Theis can fill in for Baynes when we need to defend Embiid or another big who is ... big. The defense was better with Baynes on the floor, in general, and he was a critical player against both the Sixers and Cavs. My concern about using Theis to replace him, although Theis is very good, is that he doesn’t bring the same physicality. We don’t have an Embiid of our own, so we end up needing multiple bigs to match up depending on our opponent. Baynes was useless against Milwaukee and critical against Philly. If Brad believes Theis can do what Baynes did with Embiid, I’m fine seeing Baynes go. But I’m skeptical, and that’s the team we have to expect as our main obstacle in the East next year.

[saltlover]

That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

You do know that Kyrie and Smart went down at the same time, correct?  Smart played in exactly zero games in the regular season in which Rozier started, and averaged 5 minutes more per game overall despite Rozier picking up a ton of minutes after both Kyrie and Smart went down.  There’s no trend.

EDIT: Also, you cite Smart’s mere 24.2 MPG in February, which occurred in the four games post all-star break.  In those same four games, Rozier averaged only 22.3 minutes, and the only game in which he played more than Smart was a 28 point blowout of the Hornets, in which he got some of the garbage time minutes and no one on the roster played more than 24 minutes (Rozier got the most PT of anyone).

There’s no evidence that, during the regular season when both players were healthy, that Rozier was ahead of Smart in the rotation.  None, even after Rozier had started to break out in the second half.

Mea culpa on individual regular season games -- 'shoulda checked the game logs.   The overall trend there was more of a close tie in usage. 

I think my overall position is still well supported by what happened in the playoffs, though.   Stevens leaned extremely heavily on Rozier in the playoffs, with the latter logging 31+ minutes in all but one game and 35+ in the vast majority of them.   Smart, meanwhile broke 35+ in just one playoff game and was under 30 in a full third of them.

And you still haven't addressed the core positional issue on next year's roster:   Where is Smart getting his minutes?  Is he taking them back from Kyrie or Rozier?   Is he taking them from Gordon or Jaylen?

Sure, if guys get injured, it's nice to have a quality bench guy to lean on that you feel okay giving 25-30 minutes to.  But how much money do you tie up with on that guy if he's _supposed_ to only get 10-15 mpg if everyone is healthy?   And how many years do you sign him for?  Three?  Four?  Jaylen is going to need to be resigned in 2020.   The cost of that will have tax compounded on it already.   Paying the premium on the last year or two of a bench player's contract for the same position?  Not good financing.

In the playoffs, Smart was coming off missing six weeks of basketball and was playing with a splint on his hand.  Of course he played fewer minutes than Rozier.  You can’t call that a trend, completely devoid of all context.

Stevens runs all kinds of lineups out there.  Sometimes it will be one guard and four forwards, sometimes it will be three guards, a forward and a big, and we’ve even seen the occasional four guard lineup.  We don’t need to know exactly who Smart subs in for, because it’s never mattered in the past — he’s always been a 25-30 minute per game player no matter if he’s starting or not, and really no matter who else is healthy.  He can fit into a number of different roles that don’t involve shooting, and in positionless basketball, that gets him ample minutes.

Smart will get 10-12% of the team’s payroll and play about 10% of the minutes.  That is a perfectly reasonable allocation of resources.

[mmmmm]

OK, fair argument regarding Rozier's ascension.  But Rozier's minutes expansion in the playoffs was partly because we needed a point guard in Kyrie's absence.  If Horford was the one hurt, we'd see Monroe get tons of additional playoff minutes over Semi but that wouldn't mean that he's gaining favor in the organization.  Let's go back to your positional breakdown since I can see the merit in that.  Sticking to saltlovers totals, that can be broken down as:

1:  Kyrie (30) / Rozier (13) / Smart (5)
2:  Jaylen (16) / Rozier (12) / Smart (17) / Hayward (3)
3:  Hayward (17) / Jaylen (14) / Tatum (14) / Smart (3)
4:  Tatum (16) / Hayward (10) / Morris (22)
5:  Horford (30) / Theis (15) / Morris (3)

Granted, positional designations aren't that meaningful in Stevens' system, I don't think we'll see Hayward "at the 2" very much.  Him playing at the SG would essentially require three of Kyrie/Rozier/Jaylen/Smart to be on the bench at the same time while three of Horford/Morris/Theis/Tatum are on the floor.  It will happen, but not a ton, roughly as often as Kyrie/Rozier/Smart share the floor together.

Okay - so THIS is actually a useful contribution to the discussion.   You are, as you say, using saltlover's original premises, Baynes is gone and we retain both Smart and Morris, and so Horford is forced to play all of his minutes at the 5.

This gets Smart to 25 mpg, while begging the question of: Why we would ever want him to play even just 3 minutes at the 3?

Seriously.   On a team with Hayward, Tatum and Brown, (not to mention Morris, Semi and possibly Nader) what possible scenario ever calls for playing Smart at the 3 other than injury of extreme lineup weirdness?

Why wouldn't you play each of Hayward and the two Jays just one more minute each?   Don't you want to win?   I get that these are nominal numbers and we aren't talking about giving Smart 3 minutes at the three in every single game.  But this notion translates to some ~240 minutes at the 3 over the course of the season.  That just sounds like a terrible idea unless at least one of those guys ahead of him are injured for an extended period.

This is not the same roster that had Isaiah and Avery starting and weak wings and the need to throw 3-guard lineups onto the floor all the time.   This roster is wing-heavy.

So even accepting the 3 saltlover premises, I see that walked back to 22 minutes for Smart right off the bat.   It still begs the question of whether you believe Smart is deserving of 17 mpg at the two, giving him the _most_ minutes at that position when at least two of the other three you have dividing up the remaining 31 minutes are clearly superior players.

And this is all only really supported by the original premises, which force Horford to play all his minutes at the 5 -- after a season which showed how much MORE effective he is when allowed to play the 4 a lot!!!!   This last year was arguably Horford's best overall season and a big reason was that he posted a Net-PER of +5.6 at PF (compared to a still very good +3.6 at C).   Horford played ~43% of his minutes last year at PF and it was a raging success.   Why do we want to walk it back?

If you instead acknowledge that we are better off playing at least SOME minutes with a true C (i.e, a Baynes/Theis type) up front and Horford at least SOME minutes at the 4, then that has a downward ripple effect.   You aren't playing Hayward 10 minutes at the 4 and you aren't playing Morris 22 minutes there either.   Not to mention that Semi guy will still be around.

In all his prior seasons, Hayward has barely ever played PF.   His last full season at Utah he played almost exactly 50/50 at the 2 and the 3, with a tiny bit of time at the 1.    And he was really, really good with this utilization, posting Net-PER ratings of +16.4 at SG and +10.2 at SF!     Again, why do we want to deviate from that?

So more likely, it seems to me is that Hayward is going to get almost all of his minutes at the 3 and the 2.   If Hayward splits his time across these two evenly, then we are talking about 15 & 15.   

Now, if Tatum is also taking a fair chunk of time at the 3, then Jaylen is likely to get most of HIS minutes at the 2.   I can easily see Jaylen getting 17-20 mpg at the 2 if not more.   He's just too versatile defensively and can be played against pretty much every 2-guard in the league, big or small.    Add it up, and very quickly Jaylen and Gordon have consumed 32-35 and maybe even more minutes at the 2-guard spot.     That leaves just 13-16 minutes AT MOST to split between Rozier and Smart at the 2-guard spot.

Similarly, assuming Kyrie is able to come back and play ~30 mpg at the 1, there is only 18 minutes at that spot to split between Rozier and Smart.

So across the two guard spots, we are looking at a total of at most ~34 minutes for both Rozier and Smart. 

Is the intention that Rozier will be marginalized back to a ~10 minute player?    Maybe.  But I doubt it.   

But if you don't, how does Smart warrant the minutes to justify a $12-14M contract?

[mmmmm]

Stevens runs all kinds of lineups out there.  Sometimes it will be one guard and four forwards, sometimes it will be three guards, a forward and a big, and we’ve even seen the occasional four guard lineup.  We don’t need to know exactly who Smart subs in for, because it’s never mattered in the past — he’s always been a 25-30 minute per game player no matter if he’s starting or not, and really no matter who else is healthy.  He can fit into a number of different roles that don’t involve shooting, and in positionless basketball, that gets him ample minutes.

Smart will get 10-12% of the team’s payroll and play about 10% of the minutes.  That is a perfectly reasonable allocation of resources.

This seems like hand-waiving.  Of course we know Stevens runs all kinds of lineups out there and he doesn't use normal C/PF/SF/SG/PG lineup nomenclature.   But fundamentally there are still 5 positions on the floor and their is a nature to each that each player fits to varying ability.

And there are only so many minutes in a game.  240 in fact.   If our 5 best players, Kyrie, Gordon, Al, Jaylen & Jayson are all nominally taking ~30 mpg, then that already leaves just 90 minutes for everyone else.     You want to carve out 24 of those for Smart (10%)?   I think if you do, then you are squeezing out Rozier.

I believe you build your rotation around the 5 best players on the roster, as I named and that their minute distribution is going to look something like so:

1:  Kyrie (30)
2: Jaylen (20), Gordon (15)
3: Gordon (15), Jayson (15), Jaylen (10)
4:  Jayson (15), Horford (13),
5: Horford (17)

This is based on the following 3 premises (notably concerning our 3 max players):

1) Al Horford was brilliant for us and had arguably his best season by playing about 43% of his minutes at the 4.
2) Hayward was brilliant in his last full season playing almost an even split between the 2 and the 3.
3) Kyrie is a pure 1.

When you look at it this way, this leaves the following minutes to be covered by the bench:

1: 18
2: 13
3:  8
4: 20
5: 31

Now, Smart isn't going to be covering any minutes at the 5 or 4.  Those will be covered by guys like Theis, Baynes (if re-signed), Morris & Semi (and Williams if not in Maine).

At least some if not all of the 8 minutes to be covered at the 3 are going to be covered by guys like Morris & Semi and maybe Nader if he's still here.   Let's be generous and carve out 3 of those minutes for super-small ball and give them to Smart.   That seems like a bad basketball idea, but whatever.

We are left with 31 minutes at the 1 & 2 that need to be shared by Rozier and Smart.   If you are giving Smart 24 minutes (10% of the team minutes), and we decided to give him 3 minutes at the 3 instead of using Semi, Morris or Nader, then 21 of those 31 minutes are going to Smart which leaves just 10 minutes for Rozier!!!

Now, yeah, injuries to starters mean some extra minutes will become available to the bench throughout the year.   So maybe Rozier gets a few minutes more due to injuries to Kyrie.    But you are still basically planning on him being a nominal 10 minute player in order to justify paying Marcus "10-12% of the team payroll".

And that's assuming you really want to give up 3 minutes to play an undersized Smart at the 3!   If you don't do that, then you are further reducing Rozier's nominal minutes to just 7 per game in order to justify that contract.

Are you really saying that you are advocating just trading Rozier now, while his value is high?

[JBcat]

TP to the previous post for a very detailed minutes distribution.  I agree Horford at the 4 has helped preserve him, and I think re-signing Baynes is almost a priority for us for that very reason.

We might be in a situation though that Horford will have to play a little more of the 5 this year if we plan to roll out Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford lineups.  Baynes only played 18 MPG last year, and let’s say Theis plays 10 MPG at C, and Willians is the G league mostly.

C Baynes 18, Theis 10, Horford 20,
PF Horford 10, Tatum 20, Morris 18
SF Hayward 30, Tatum 10, Brown 8
SG Brown 22 Smart 22, Rozier 4
PG Irving 30, Rozier 18

So I think it could be something like this assuming everyone is healthy, but there is always going to be some injuries during the year to allow for some increase in MPG, and spot minutes for players like Semi. 

Horford might be playing a little more 5 this year, but it gets our best 5 on the court at 1 time.  As long as we don’t overuse him at the 5 we should be fine.  Smart and Rozier get 22 minutes each here in this distribution, and probably a little more because of injuries like I mentioned.  I don’t see a need for Hayward to play SG the way our team is constructed unless if you consider SG and SF pretty much interchangeable especially with Brown and Hayward on the court together.  My big question is if Tatum can handle more minutes as a PF. I think he can the way the league is now.

Edit.  Just wanted to add if we don’t re-sign Baynes, and don’t sign another center IMO we are too vulnerable at the center position.  I don’t think it’s a good idea having Horford playing ALL his minutes at center.

[Celtics4ever]

t all depends on whether you think Theis can fill in for Baynes when we need to defend Embiid or another big who is ... big. The defense was better with Baynes on the floor, in general, and he was a critical player against both the Sixers and Cavs. My concern about using Theis to replace him, although Theis is very good, is that he doesn’t bring the same physicality

I have the same concern and no he does not have the physicality to bang like Baynes.   Also, Baynes got in some people's heads.

[mmmmm]

TP to the previous post for a very detailed minutes distribution.  I agree Horford at the 4 has helped preserve him, and I think re-signing Baynes is almost a priority for us for that very reason.

We might be in a situation though that Horford will have to play a little more of the 5 this year if we plan to roll out Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford lineups.  Baynes only played 18 MPG last year, and let’s say Theis plays 10 MPG at C, and Willians is the G league mostly.

C Baynes 18, Theis 10, Horford 20,
PF Horford 10, Tatum 20, Morris 18
SF Hayward 30, Tatum 10, Brown 8
SG Brown 22 Smart 22, Rozier 4
PG Irving 30, Rozier 18

So I think it could be something like this assuming everyone is healthy, but there is always going to be some injuries during the year to allow for some increase in MPG, and spot minutes for players like Semi. 

Horford might be playing a little more 5 this year, but it gets our best 5 on the court at 1 time.  As long as we don’t overuse him at the 5 we should be fine.  Smart and Rozier get 22 minutes each here in this distribution, and probably a little more because of injuries like I mentioned.  I don’t see a need for Hayward to play SG the way our team is constructed unless if you consider SG and SF pretty much interchangeable especially with Brown and Hayward on the court together.  My big question is if Tatum can handle more minutes as a PF. I think he can the way the league is now.

Edit.  Just wanted to add if we don’t re-sign Baynes, and don’t sign another center IMO we are too vulnerable at the center position.  I don’t think it’s a good idea having Horford playing ALL his minutes at center.

Good post.  And I 100% concur with your last statement.

On your lineup, you basically found 5 more minutes for Smart/Rozier by giving Tatum 5 more minutes at the 4 than my rotation.   If one thinks of SF & SG as 'wings' this reduced the total minutes that JT, GH & JB are consuming from those two positions from 75 down to 70, and loaded their coverage on the 3 which left 26 minutes at the 2 to be covered.  You then dropped using any of Morris, Semi or Nader for any wing minutes.

This gives you a full 26 minutes at the two and the 18 non-Kyrie minutes at the one, or 44 total minutes to split between Rozier and Smart.

You then shaved Smart down to 22 minutes instead of 24, thus getting Rozier a solid 22 minutes.

There are couple of things to think about here.

1) Last year, Tatum played only 20% of his minutes at PF.  He played 8% of his minutes at SG and 72% at SF.   Your rotation would have Tatum playing 66% of his minutes at PF.   That's a pretty significant swing.  Do we feel he has the bulk and stamina to do that now?

2) You are giving zero minutes to our bench wings.    I gotta think that Morris and Semi and yes, maybe even Nader (or even Jabari Bird) would be getting SOME minutes at the 3 & 2.

I'm not a fan of surrendering size at positions unless you have a significant speed disadvantage.  When tall guys are mobile enough to play a 'smaller' position it is usually advantageous to do so.     Because of his mobility and play-making skill, there are a lot of advantages to playing a guy with Haywards' size at the 2.  Similarly, because of his mobility and shot making, Tatum has a lot of advantages due to his length when at the 3.   Jaylen's great defense means he can pretty much play anywhere on defense, of course.

[jay]

Saltlover,

Would there be any benefit to trading Morris/Yabusele for players that absolutely you dont want but make less money?  Look at Memphis, they say they want to make the playoffs. Trade Morris/Yabusele for Jarrell Martin, Andrew Harrison, and Wayne Selden. It works on trade machine and saves $3.15 million in salary cap space this season.

Is that enough savings to keep Smart and Baynes?

[action781]

And there are only so many minutes in a game.  240 in fact.   If our 5 best players, Kyrie, Gordon, Al, Jaylen & Jayson are all nominally taking ~30 mpg, then that already leaves just 90 minutes for everyone else.     You want to carve out 24 of those for Smart (10%)?   I think if you do, then you are squeezing out Rozier.

I believe you build your rotation around the 5 best players on the roster, as I named and that their minute distribution is going to look something like so:

1:  Kyrie (30)
2: Jaylen (20), Gordon (15)
3: Gordon (15), Jayson (15), Jaylen (10)
4:  Jayson (15), Horford (13),
5: Horford (17)

This is based on the following 3 premises (notably concerning our 3 max players):

1) Al Horford was brilliant for us and had arguably his best season by playing about 43% of his minutes at the 4.
2) Hayward was brilliant in his last full season playing almost an even split between the 2 and the 3.
3) Kyrie is a pure 1.

When you look at it this way, this leaves the following minutes to be covered by the bench:

1: 18
2: 13
3:  8
4: 20
5: 31

Now, Smart isn't going to be covering any minutes at the 5 or 4.  Those will be covered by guys like Theis, Baynes (if re-signed), Morris & Semi (and Williams if not in Maine).

At least some if not all of the 8 minutes to be covered at the 3 are going to be covered by guys like Morris & Semi and maybe Nader if he's still here.   Let's be generous and carve out 3 of those minutes for super-small ball and give them to Smart.   That seems like a bad basketball idea, but whatever.

We are left with 31 minutes at the 1 & 2 that need to be shared by Rozier and Smart.   If you are giving Smart 24 minutes (10% of the team minutes), and we decided to give him 3 minutes at the 3 instead of using Semi, Morris or Nader, then 21 of those 31 minutes are going to Smart which leaves just 10 minutes for Rozier!!!

And that's assuming you really want to give up 3 minutes to play an undersized Smart at the 3!   If you don't do that, then you are further reducing Rozier's nominal minutes to just 7 per game in order to justify that contract.

Are you really saying that you are advocating just trading Rozier now, while his value is high?

I'll address a few things here:

1.  Kyrie-Rozier-Smart trios are not as unlikely as you think.  In the 49 games last season which the three of them were all active, those three shared the court for a total of 178.5 minutes which averages about 3.6 minutes per game.  The lineup was used in 43 different games out of the 49.  Those lineups were a +9.5 differential in points per 100 possessions (+58 total on the season).  So I don’t think they are that crazy nor that bad of a basketball idea and Brad seems to like them a little bit.

2.  For a minute, I liked your idea of putting your best 5 guys in at their positions first.  But the problem with that method is could end up pigeon-holing yourself to possibly need to play your 11th best guy more minutes than your 7th best guy.  Don't you want to play your better players more minutes?

3.  We can't keep both of Morris and Baynes, it can only be one.  So if we're keeping Baynes to play more 5 and push Horford to the 4, I'm cool with that, but the whole point of this OP is to avoid the luxury tax so Morris has to be traded.  Now, with Horford getting 13 minutes and Tatum 15 minutes at PF and no Morris in town, who picks up the other 20 minutes available there?  Theis can take a few, but not all of them he's going to be needed for at least 10 minutes for him at C.  That's why I see more of those PF minutes going to Hayward/Tatum whoever you want to slide there.  More of their minutes played at the PF will open up more 1/2/3 minutes for Rozier and Smart.

If we swap out Baynes for Morris in saltlover's original post, lets take another look at things.  I think you have to cut Morris' projected 25 minutes down to 20 for Baynes since he played 18mpg reg season and 20 mpg playoffs and has never played over 20 in his career.  Lets give 3 of those minutes to Kyrie and 2 to Gordon.

Irving - 33
Brown - 30
Hayward - 32
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Baynes - 20
Theis - 15

Let's see if we can make this work.

1: Kyrie (33) / Rozier (10) / Smart (5)
2: Jaylen (13) / Rozier (15) / Smart (17) / Hayward (3)
3: Hayward (18) / Jaylen (17) / Tatum (10) / Smart (3)
4: Tatum (20) / Horford (14) / Hayward (11) / Theis (3)
5: Horford (16) / Baynes (20) / Theis (12)

Thoughts?  I'm having trouble even remembering what point/question these minutes explorations even originated from haha, but I think it was all an effort to show that Smart can still get 25 minutes per game in a way that will not squeeze out Rozier.  And I think we've now shown it with Morris or with Baynes in town.

[action781]

Also, it appears that basketball-reference doesn't have Gordon Hayward having played a 50-50 split at SG/SF in his last season in Utah.  They have him playing 70% at SF and 30% at PF in the regular season and in the playoffs it was 38% at SF and 62% at PF.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html#advanced_pbp::none

[wiley]

Also, it appears that basketball-reference doesn't have Gordon Hayward having played a 50-50 split at SG/SF in his last season in Utah.  They have him playing 70% at SF and 30% at PF in the regular season and in the playoffs it was 38% at SF and 62% at PF.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html#advanced_pbp::none

interesting numbers.  He's got like 25 pounds on Tatum i think...and just a little lighter than Morris.  Pretty hulky guy...