Disclaimer: I don’t love to do specific player comps. Trying to put an absolute ceiling on someone (ex. Isaiah Thomas) or an absolute floor (ex. Anthony Bennett) on a prospect is kind of ridiculous. But they can be fun, so I’ll include some just for the heck of it.
1. Brandon Ingram
I love Brandon Ingram, and I know it’s a bit bold to have him ahead of Ben Simmons, but I think Ingram’s skill set is much better suited for today’s NBA. He’s got a silky stroke, unreal athleticism, and ludicrous measurables. His insane length allows him to finish creatively around the basket and get his shot off over defenders. His defensive potential is amazing too; he’s averaging around 1.5 blocks and steals per game each. However, he needs time to develop--dude looks like the world’s skinniest 8 year-old. The Durant comp is lazy for an athletic, giant, skinny, versatile wing, but it’s an accurate absolute ceiling in my opinion. I really love this kid.
Ceiling: Kevin Durant
Floor: Terrence Ross
My Projection: Giannis with a shot
2. Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons should be the number one overall selection in the draft in June. He’s too safe and obvious a pick not to go first. Simmons is a very good passer, but not the Magic Johnson-esque point forward that some make him out to be. He’s got excellent vision, outstanding court awareness, and tremendous BBIQ. He’s a great prospect and a worthy number one pick, but he is severely overhyped. I hate to break this to anyone who hasn’t realized yet, but Ben Simmons is not the next LeBron James. And this is not an indictment on him as a prospect, I’m just saying that he’s not the undisputed top prospect that many claim he is. Ultimately, his ability to facilitate, work out of the post, rebound, get to the line, and run in transition--I have never seen a big as blazingly fast as Simmons, routinely the fastest guy on the court--make him a really awesome prospect. His lack of a jumper at this stage is worrisome--it’s beyond broken and he has zero confidence in it whatsoever--but he does everything else well enough to warrant being the number one pick.
Ceiling: Blake Griffin
Floor: taller Tyreke Evans/Evan Turner
My Projection: Blake Griffin lite
3. Jaylen Brown
If only he could shoot. Unfortunately, shooting is a rather important part of basketball. That’s essentially the whole story with Jaylen Brown. He’s a FREAK athlete. A really, really special athlete. But, at this point, he’s nothing more than a pretty good slasher. It’s going to come down to situation for Brown. If he lands in a situation like Kawhi did, and develops into a great shooter, his ceiling is astronomically high. I’d be willing to take a shot on Brown at 3, but we should be prepared for a tough few years, trying desperately to turn him into a passable shooter.
Ceiling: Russell Westbrook in a wing’s body
Floor: Take your pick of the countless freak athletes that have flamed out
My Projection: DeMar Derozan lite
4. Dragan Bender
What is Dragan Bender? As far as I can tell, he’s an ultra raw, very high upside player with an unclear future. I’m honestly not even sure if he’s a wing or a big in the NBA. His mobility at 7’1” is crazy, but he is still every bit of 7’1”. And man, I have to reiterate, he is so raw he makes sashimi look burnt to a crisp. Additionally, you have to take his contract situation into account, which is also a bit of a mystery. As far as I can tell, he’s not getting out of his contract with Maccabi Tel Aviv for around 2-3 years. This is a huge negative for us, given that we are looking for a guy to build around right now. The range of outcomes for him is so vast. I could see him flaming out in a blaze of glory, taking the GM who gambled on him with him, or he could be a transcendent, position-redefining superstar. If I’m a GM with a top five pick, Dragan Bender is the most terrifying person on Earth.
Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns (what I see as the future of the NBA big- mobile, versatile, complete offensive game)
Floor: Out of the league within a few years
My Projection: No clue
5. Ivan Rabb
I like Rabb. He’s solid, if not a little boring. He’s a strong rebounder and defender and usually pretty active. I envision him developing into a very versatile offensive player, possibly extending his range out to three eventually. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as the guys’ above him, but I’d be pretty happy if we came away with a guy like Rabb. He’s just super solid.
Ceiling: Chris Bosh lite
Floor: Bobby Portis
My Projection: Chris Bosh very, very lite
6. Kris Dunn
Dunn has elite size, good intangibles, and plays both sides of the court. He’s essentially the prototypical modern point guard at a lean, yet strong 200 pounds in a 6’4” frame. He has a knack for getting in passing lanes and making big plays. He’s a good, but sometimes turnover-prone passer. He’s a good athlete, but is sometimes reckless. He’s not perfect, but he’s pretty [dang] good.
Ceiling: John Wall
Floor: Cory Joseph
My Projection: Somewhere between Joseph and Mike Conley
7. Buddy Hield
Buddy Hield is having an historically great shooting season. He has a smooth stroke and unlimited range, but so did Jimmer Fredette. I think Hield’s work ethic and defense set him apart from Fredette though. I like Hield’s game a lot, but he’ll be 23 by the All-Star break of his rookie year. His age is a legitimate concern.
Ceiling: CJ McCollum with defense
Floor: Jimmer Fredette
My Projection: Some sort of cross between JJ Redick and McCollum
8. Henry Ellenson
He can rebound and score, but he’s a defensive sieve. If he extends out to three, he’ll be very dangerous.
Ceiling: Kevin Love in Cleveland
Floor: slightly worse Jared Sullinger
My Projection: slightly less maddening Jared Sullinger
9. Jakob Poeltl
He’s the ultimate safe pick. He’s got a very limited ceiling, but a very defined NBA role. His offensive game is largely nonexistent, but the rim protection is legit.
Ceiling: Andrew Bogut
Floor: Bismack Biyombo
My Projection: Omer Asik with hands
10. Furkan Korkmaz
Korkmaz has a nice, natural stroke and very good athleticism. He’s really skinny and needs to develop a lot before he’ll be able to contribute, but I like his upside as a very good, exciting SG/SF.
Ceiling: Khris Middleton
Floor: James Young
My Projection: Omri Casspi
11. Timothe Luwawu
The first word that comes to mind when I watch Luwawu if “fun.” He plays with energy and is always liable to do something cool. He’s a strong athlete, and his shot, while slightly low and slow, is pretty smooth. He’s going to make some team and its fans very happy.
My Projection: Trevor Ariza
12. Jamal Murray
Murray can’t defend or facilitate, and he’s not a tremendous athlete by any stretch of the imagination. He’s likely playing out of position at PG at Kentucky too. However, he can score. He always finds a way to score, and as Celtics fans know better than anyone else, anyone who can get buckets has value.
My Projection: Lou Williams
13. Diamond Stone
He can score and he can rebound. And he does both pretty well. He’s definitely of a dying breed of back to the basket bigs, but the ability to do two things well sets him apart from many of the lackluster prospects behind Stone.
My Projection: A poor man’s Greg Monroe
14. Skal Labissiere
Skal, in theory, has potential to be a really good offensive player. I think that’s pretty unlikely to happen, but someone should take a shot on him in the late lottery and try to harness some of the potential people thought he had just a few months ago.
My Projection: Lottery ticket
I'm eager to hear your thoughts, suggestions, and criticisms!