The apparent plan for the DPE

[2short]

Monroe or Noel would be my choices.  Monroe as a backup to Baynes I really like.  Morris and Theis backing up Horford.  That's a deep group.

[byennie]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Sure, but that's a big "if" that some team is going to suddenly offer him big minutes, he'll put up big numbers, and he'd turn down an extra $6M right now to do it.

Extra $6M that nobody else will offer, the chance to possibly play deep playoff basketball, hometown, we have a lot going for us if we want Noel.

[Roy H.]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Sure, but that's a big "if" that some team is going to suddenly offer him big minutes, he'll put up big numbers, and he'd turn down an extra $6M right now to do it.

Extra $6M that nobody else will offer, the chance to possibly play deep playoff basketball, hometown, we have a lot going for us if we want Noel.

If he’s a free agent, this season, perhaps.

Going forward, no way.

[byennie]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Sure, but that's a big "if" that some team is going to suddenly offer him big minutes, he'll put up big numbers, and he'd turn down an extra $6M right now to do it.

Extra $6M that nobody else will offer, the chance to possibly play deep playoff basketball, hometown, we have a lot going for us if we want Noel.

If he’s a free agent, this season, perhaps.

Going forward, no way.

I don't follow your logic. You're saying someone is going to pay him more than $10M/year in the offseason, and/or there's no loyalty if we made him an extra $6M and he likes it here?

I don't see how he goes from completely striking out on 4 years / $70M in a huge spending summer, to the worst season of his career, to us having no chance of signing him when he's already on our roster and we can offer good money.

[celticinorlando]

Spend it on a rebounder or a shooter that can make shots off the bench.

[Roy H.]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Sure, but that's a big "if" that some team is going to suddenly offer him big minutes, he'll put up big numbers, and he'd turn down an extra $6M right now to do it.

Extra $6M that nobody else will offer, the chance to possibly play deep playoff basketball, hometown, we have a lot going for us if we want Noel.

If he’s a free agent, this season, perhaps.

Going forward, no way.

I don't follow your logic. You're saying someone is going to pay him more than $10M/year in the offseason, and/or there's no loyalty if we made him an extra $6M and he likes it here?

I don't see how he goes from completely striking out on 4 years / $70M in a huge spending summer, to the worst season of his career, to us having no chance of signing him when he's already on our roster and we can offer good money.

I think he’d gamble on himself and go somewhere on a one-year deal where he’d get playing time and/or more money.  What’s his incentive for re-upping in Boston?

[Smitty77]

I'm hoping that we can snag Nerlens Noel with the DPE. It doesn't look like he's staying in Dallas long-term, and maybe they want to move him for something. It's surprising to me that he isn't being more vocal about his lack of a role there. It's killing any chance he has at a decent contract in 2018-19.

I think he could grow in to a very good backup center under Stevens. He could potentially replace Baynes' minutes, which is something we'll need as most expect Baynes to get paid somewhere else next year.

He's the kind of player I'd be willing to to a flier on. Being homegrown doesn't hurt either.

Noel would almost certainly leave in free agency. The most we could offer him next year would be the MLE.

I agree with Byennie.  If we give him the full 8.4 million for the rest of the year and then a 120% raise to 10.08 million next for a guy that is currently averaging ONLY 4.0 points and 4.1 rebounds in ONLY 12.5 minutes!!  I would think that he might be ECSTATIC to get those dollars for those numbers!!  And get to come HOME!!!

Smitty77

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

I think that IF he steps up his game, there would be 20 to 25 or possibly slightly more waiting on him in Boston, perhaps even THIS year!!  He brings things to the table defensively (shot blocking and shot intimidation) that we currently are missing on the block IMHO!!

Smitty77

[nostar]

I agree with Byennie.  If we give him the full 8.4 million for the rest of the year and then a 120% raise to 10.08 million next for a guy that is currently averaging ONLY 4.0 points and 4.1 rebounds in ONLY 12.5 minutes!!  I would think that he might be ECSTATIC to get those dollars for those numbers!!  And get to come HOME!!!

Smitty77

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Dallas has no incentive to buy him out, and he'd have to clear waivers if he were bought out, which probably isn't likely either.

Oh well!

[Smitty77]

I agree with Byennie.  If we give him the full 8.4 million for the rest of the year and then a 120% raise to 10.08 million next for a guy that is currently averaging ONLY 4.0 points and 4.1 rebounds in ONLY 12.5 minutes!!  I would think that he might be ECSTATIC to get those dollars for those numbers!!  And get to come HOME!!!

Smitty77

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Dallas has no incentive to buy him out, and he'd have to clear waivers if he were bought out, which probably isn't likely either.

Oh well!

If he is NOT in their plans for next year, they might be ready to just move on.  He has ONLY played in 18 games at 12.5 minutes per game.  Therefore, he has played a TOTAL of 225 minutes for the Mavs this season in their 44 games.

We might have to trade for him, but how?  Their blog had a podcast on December 8th about this.  About to listen.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/12/8/16750320/nerlens-noel-trades-to-the-east-locked-on-mavericks-podcast-12-8-17

Here is another gem from their blog on November 12th.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/11/12/16639146/the-nerlens-noel-situation-has-hit-rock-bottom-mavericks-cavaliers-dnp-cd

So, MAYBE they do have SOME incentive to just MOVE ON!!!!

Smitty77

[Smitty77]

Trade to Boston discussed around the 15:30 mark:

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2017/12/8/16750320/nerlens-noel-trades-to-the-east-locked-on-mavericks-podcast-12-8-17

Thoughts?

Smitty77

[jambr380]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Can you imagine being in Noel's shoes, btw? He could have been living large as soon as THIS year making an average of $17.5M/yr over the next four years. Instead he signed for a one year $4.18M contract and has no security should he be injured. But I guess there is no real chance for an injury when you aren't playing at all on a crappy team.

What kind-of contract is he even going to get anyway? Not even taking into account that he is already making over $13M less this year than he would have, is there anyway he even breaks the MLE with another team? And if you think so, why?

It's got to be devastating - it might be one of the all-time great mistakes in the history of contract negotiations from a player's side.

[Sophomore]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Can you imagine being in Noel's shoes, btw? He could have been living large as soon as THIS year making an average of $17.5M/yr over the next four years. Instead he signed for a one year $4.18M contract and has no security should he be injured. But I guess there is no real chance for an injury when you aren't playing at all on a crappy team.

What kind-of contract is he even going to get anyway? Not even taking into account that he is already making over $13M less this year than he would have, is there anyway he even breaks the MLE with another team? And if you think so, why?

It's got to be devastating - it might be one of the all-time great mistakes in the history of contract negotiations from a player's side.

Totally agree. One of the all-time mystifying decisions. Who advised him on this deal? I hope they’re not going to ruin anybody else’s finances.

[Smitty77]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Can you imagine being in Noel's shoes, btw? He could have been living large as soon as THIS year making an average of $17.5M/yr over the next four years. Instead he signed for a one year $4.18M contract and has no security should he be injured. But I guess there is no real chance for an injury when you aren't playing at all on a crappy team.

What kind-of contract is he even going to get anyway? Not even taking into account that he is already making over $13M less this year than he would have, is there anyway he even breaks the MLE with another team? And if you think so, why?

It's got to be devastating - it might be one of the all-time great mistakes in the history of contract negotiations from a player's side.

He IS injured.  He had surgery on his thumb in early December and will not be back until February.

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nba/2112/nerlens-noel

Smitty77

[jambr380]

He hasn’t been bought out, though, and probably would prefer a team to retain his Bird rights.  He turned down 4 years, $70 million. His goal is going to be either to get paid or to re-establish his value with heavy minutes. Boston isn’t a team with a lot of financial flexibility or playing time.

Can you imagine being in Noel's shoes, btw? He could have been living large as soon as THIS year making an average of $17.5M/yr over the next four years. Instead he signed for a one year $4.18M contract and has no security should he be injured. But I guess there is no real chance for an injury when you aren't playing at all on a crappy team.

What kind-of contract is he even going to get anyway? Not even taking into account that he is already making over $13M less this year than he would have, is there anyway he even breaks the MLE with another team? And if you think so, why?

It's got to be devastating - it might be one of the all-time great mistakes in the history of contract negotiations from a player's side.

He IS injured.  He had surgery on his thumb in early December and will not be back until February.

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nba/2112/nerlens-noel

Smitty77

I guess he is technically injured, but it's not like he was ever really in Dallas' rotation anyway. From his ESPN player page:

Noel recently had the cast removed from his left thumb, but he's still got a ways to go before making a return to the floor. He's still two weeks from upping his participation and it's unclear when exactly he'll be cleared for full contact practices. Either way, the Mavericks are expecting to be without him for at least another month, so fantasy owners can continue to avoid the situation. Noel fell out of the rotation prior to suffering the injury, so he could be buried on the depth chart even when he's cleared.

Honestly, the injury might be the only thing saving him for upcoming contract negotiations this off-season. Imagine him piling up DNP-CDs on a nightly basis for months on end.

[byennie]

I think he’d gamble on himself and go somewhere on a one-year deal where he’d get playing time and/or more money.  What’s his incentive for re-upping in Boston?

Totally possible, but the answer is money. If he gets $8.4M this year and $10M next year from Boston, he's probably $10M richer 14 months from now than in your scenario, and still gets to build his value for his next contract. If he can't beat out Theis and Baynes for minutes, how would playing time turn him back into a huge contract guy?