Celtic Picks - 2019 draft

[smokeablount]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

[Silky]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

[slamtheking]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

you're about the only one who thinks:

A) the deal with NO is better with the pick conveying this year at #9 than as a top-6 protected next year and unprotected the following year.  Knowing this pick is very likely in the NO deal and the salary and quality of the player picked won't help us retain Smart for salary or talent purposes, I'm leaning towards it rolling over since it'll be viewed as a better asset than a #9 pick this year.  Memphis is not improving anytime soon so that pick is NOT decreasing in value.  it's not like the Clips pick which would convert to second rounders -- this one becomes unprotected in 2 years.  Memphis has no really good young talent to build with and no one they pick at #6-#8 this year would change that if they keep the pick.  Conley's likely traded so they become even worse next year --> no one they bring in would be as good as Conley.   Memphis is also not a big FA landing spot and that's if they had a team good FAs would want to join, which they will not have.

B) the deal with NO won't include Tatum and Smart.  C's have no other tradeable players making enough money to match Davis' salary for trading purposes.   A S&T of Rozier in this deal isn't happening -- way too complicated to make it work.

C) the deal with NO not including every pick we have this year -- this includes the Mem pick whenever it actually conveys.  Only way we don't give up all the picks is if Sac's pick jumps to #2 or #3 post-lottery and it becomes a much more valuable asset.   C's have no future picks but their own that they can use to entice NO to let us keep one this year and if they did let us keep one, it'd most likely be the latest one we have this year. 

Only way C's aren't coughing up Tatum (or Brown), Smart, Williams and all the firsts this year is if AD states he absolutely will not resign here and if that comes out, I don't see any deal happening.  Tatum/Brown's more valuable than a one-year rental of AD.

[smokeablount]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

No it doesn't, see the Memphis thread for that debate. 

EDIT - I hope 2 of those options aren't needed, but the way this season has gone so far, if I'm DA and NO won't do the deal unless we add Brown or Smart to Tatum/RW/Yabu/3 picks, I cave and make the deal.  And I think NO, being run my Mickey Loomis, knows it.

[Silky]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

you're about the only one who thinks:

A) the deal with NO is better with the pick conveying this year at #9 than as a top-6 protected next year and unprotected the following year.  Knowing this pick is very likely in the NO deal and the salary and quality of the player picked won't help us retain Smart for salary or talent purposes, I'm leaning towards it rolling over since it'll be viewed as a better asset than a #9 pick this year.  Memphis is not improving anytime soon so that pick is NOT decreasing in value.  it's not like the Clips pick which would convert to second rounders -- this one becomes unprotected in 2 years.  Memphis has no really good young talent to build with and no one they pick at #6-#8 this year would change that if they keep the pick.  Conley's likely traded so they become even worse next year --> no one they bring in would be as good as Conley.   Memphis is also not a big FA landing spot and that's if they had a team good FAs would want to join, which they will not have.

B) the deal with NO won't include Tatum and Smart.  C's have no other tradeable players making enough money to match Davis' salary for trading purposes.   A S&T of Rozier in this deal isn't happening -- way too complicated to make it work.

C) the deal with NO not including every pick we have this year -- this includes the Mem pick whenever it actually conveys.  Only way we don't give up all the picks is if Sac's pick jumps to #2 or #3 post-lottery and it becomes a much more valuable asset.   C's have no future picks but their own that they can use to entice NO to let us keep one this year and if they did let us keep one, it'd most likely be the latest one we have this year. 

Only way C's aren't coughing up Tatum (or Brown), Smart, Williams and all the firsts this year is if AD states he absolutely will not resign here and if that comes out, I don't see any deal happening.  Tatum/Brown's more valuable than a one-year rental of AD.

A) Having a known is always better than a future unknown. Remember when the Sacramento pick was going to be top 6? yeah, so does every other GM in the league. Having a top 10 pick NOW, with the 3.7 mill ish salary attached to it is far more attractive to the Celtics.

And in regards to NOP, That would give them 2 top 10 picks in The same draft, that is fantastic to have that. That can potentially move them up even higher.
NOP doesnt want to lose forever, they need to have a fast rebuild, having players drafted together that can play together will speed them up.
And again, having a known top 10 NOW, is far superior to having a complete roll of the dice next season. Memphis could just as easily pick a player that shocks everyone and that team starts winning. (see Donovan Mitchell) or just add pieces together and have it all click (See LAC) and have a pick that is 10 places lower than the 9th now.
NOP wants that pick to translate this year so they can have it.

b) Complicated deals are not impossible deals.
But lets assume the Celtics get the 9th, 13th and 22nd picks to add in a deal.
That is roughly 9.3 mill in salary (120% of rookie scale)
Tatum, Yabusele and Williams adds another 12.8 bringing the combined total to 22.1

Davis`deal is at 25.4 (assuming he waives trade kicker)

That is a legal deal. (trade value withing 125% + 100,000) also, Boston is allowed to add up to 3 million cash in the deal

So again, having that pick translate this year essentially allows the celtics to keep smart and brown. again, HUGE win for the Celtics.

C. The ideal deal, for all parties, is Memphis pick (9th), Sacramento pick (wherever not /1), LAC pick (22ish), and Boston 2020 first rounder (25 plus), Tatum, Yabusele, Williams and Cash.

That lets NOP pick
7th - their pick
9th - Memphis pick
13th - sacramento pick
22nd pick
28th pick 2020
Tatum (potential superstar)
Williams and Yabusele (kids with different levels of potential)
capspace.

That is by far the best deal out there, no one can come close to offering 2 LOTTO picks, as will as a top 25 pick, AND a pick again next season AND 3 young players, 1 who they really want who has superstar potential and is only 21 years old, and a potential defensive beast of a young center.

No one tops that offer.

NYK with the Number 1 pick does not trump that offer.

[Silky]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

No it doesn't, see the Memphis thread for that debate. 

EDIT - I hope 2 of those options aren't needed, but the way this season has gone so far, if I'm DA and NO won't do the deal unless we add Brown or Smart to Tatum/RW/Yabu/3 picks, I cave and make the deal.  And I think NO, being run my Mickey Loomis, knows it.

It does lose value, and alot of other poster agree, anything can happen to decrease the value of that pick. it is far from any sort of a guarantee to be better.

I dont think any way Danny makes a deal with Smart or Brown going out unless Tatum is staying. No chance at all. no one can offer anything close to that offer of Tatum, 3 picks this year, a pick next year, Yabs and Williams. The pressure is on NOP to accept now, not us. They declined LALs offer at deadline, and since then the value of their players has dropped ALOT and any offer from them this offseason will be less.

NOP Ownership wants this over with, and Danny is sitting here like Mr Burns waiting to release the dogs.

[slamtheking]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

you're about the only one who thinks:

A) the deal with NO is better with the pick conveying this year at #9 than as a top-6 protected next year and unprotected the following year.  Knowing this pick is very likely in the NO deal and the salary and quality of the player picked won't help us retain Smart for salary or talent purposes, I'm leaning towards it rolling over since it'll be viewed as a better asset than a #9 pick this year.  Memphis is not improving anytime soon so that pick is NOT decreasing in value.  it's not like the Clips pick which would convert to second rounders -- this one becomes unprotected in 2 years.  Memphis has no really good young talent to build with and no one they pick at #6-#8 this year would change that if they keep the pick.  Conley's likely traded so they become even worse next year --> no one they bring in would be as good as Conley.   Memphis is also not a big FA landing spot and that's if they had a team good FAs would want to join, which they will not have.

B) the deal with NO won't include Tatum and Smart.  C's have no other tradeable players making enough money to match Davis' salary for trading purposes.   A S&T of Rozier in this deal isn't happening -- way too complicated to make it work.

C) the deal with NO not including every pick we have this year -- this includes the Mem pick whenever it actually conveys.  Only way we don't give up all the picks is if Sac's pick jumps to #2 or #3 post-lottery and it becomes a much more valuable asset.   C's have no future picks but their own that they can use to entice NO to let us keep one this year and if they did let us keep one, it'd most likely be the latest one we have this year. 

Only way C's aren't coughing up Tatum (or Brown), Smart, Williams and all the firsts this year is if AD states he absolutely will not resign here and if that comes out, I don't see any deal happening.  Tatum/Brown's more valuable than a one-year rental of AD.

A) Having a known is always better than a future unknown. Remember when the Sacramento pick was going to be top 6? yeah, so does every other GM in the league. Having a top 10 pick NOW, with the 3.7 mill ish salary attached to it is far more attractive to the Celtics.

And in regards to NOP, That would give them 2 top 10 picks in The same draft, that is fantastic to have that. That can potentially move them up even higher.
NOP doesnt want to lose forever, they need to have a fast rebuild, having players drafted together that can play together will speed them up.
And again, having a known top 10 NOW, is far superior to having a complete roll of the dice next season. Memphis could just as easily pick a player that shocks everyone and that team starts winning. (see Donovan Mitchell) or just add pieces together and have it all click (See LAC) and have a pick that is 10 places lower than the 9th now.
NOP wants that pick to translate this year so they can have it.

b) Complicated deals are not impossible deals.
But lets assume the Celtics get the 9th, 13th and 22nd picks to add in a deal.
That is roughly 9.3 mill in salary (120% of rookie scale)
Tatum, Yabusele and Williams adds another 12.8 bringing the combined total to 22.1

Davis`deal is at 25.4 (assuming he waives trade kicker)

That is a legal deal. (trade value withing 125% + 100,000) also, Boston is allowed to add up to 3 million cash in the deal

So again, having that pick translate this year essentially allows the celtics to keep smart and brown. again, HUGE win for the Celtics.

C. The ideal deal, for all parties, is Memphis pick (9th), Sacramento pick (wherever not /1), LAC pick (22ish), and Boston 2020 first rounder (25 plus), Tatum, Yabusele, Williams and Cash.

That lets NOP pick
7th - their pick
9th - Memphis pick
13th - sacramento pick
22nd pick
28th pick 2020
Tatum (potential superstar)
Williams and Yabusele (kids with different levels of potential)
capspace.

That is by far the best deal out there, no one can come close to offering 2 LOTTO picks, as will as a top 25 pick, AND a pick again next season AND 3 young players, 1 who they really want who has superstar potential and is only 21 years old, and a potential defensive beast of a young center.

No one tops that offer.

NYK with the Number 1 pick does not trump that offer.

Having a known is always better than a future unknown.

No, no it is not.  that may be your preference and philosophy but it's not how many GMs would look at a future-unrestricted pick from a franchise with no realistic chances of improving.  Case in point, the Sac pick the C's got this year.  Danny wanted an unlimited pick for this year - an unknown -- than a known pick in last year's draft.  Did it work out for him?  Not really but Sac's improvement this year caught everyone in and out of the league by surprise.

The chances Mem picks a Donovan Mitchell-level rookie in this coming draft is extremely unlikely.  They have not shown the drafting acumen of finding that type of talent and it's not always a foregone conclusion that a player of that talent is still available at that point in the draft.  Could it happen?  sure, but highly unlikely.  NO may want that pick this year, but I wouldn't assume that they do since they'd have a number of other rookies being drafted with their own pick and the other picks the C's are giving them.

Complicated deals are not impossible deals.

I'll have to go back and look at the math again but I do recall several other posters in other threads stating that those players and picks wouldn't be sufficient financially to make the financial requirements.   Just because the C's sign rookies at 120% of scale doesn't mean NO would want them paid that much --> especially if it means the C's have to kick in another asset to make the money work.  it's in NO's interest to pay them less.  Also, if AD doesn't want to be traded to Boston, he's not waiving that trade kicker so that money has to be matched as well.  Also consider that if he's going to leave, he loses out on his big contract so he's likely to want to make up for that where he can which would be enforcing the trade kicker.

The ideal deal, for all parties, is Memphis pick (9th), Sacramento pick (wherever not /1), LAC pick (22ish), and Boston 2020 first rounder (25 plus), Tatum, Yabusele, Williams and Cash.

if that's all it took from the C's to make the deal, I think it'd be universally approved provided AD was going to resign with us.  However, I don't think it's going to be that "inexpensive".  Also, considering how much better Boston should be next year, NO will want this year's pick which will be somewhere 18-22. 

I don't disagree that the C's can put the best offer on the table regardless of who lands the #1 pick.  Lakers' youth are all tarnished in some way (health, skills, limited-potential), Knicks have a high draft pick and middling young players (no longer have Zinger to offer which would have been a great trade with the high pick this year), Philly's unlikely to move Simmons (and if I'm NO, I'd want Embiid instead) and no other franchise has the assets to trade nor serve as a likely destination where AD would likely resign with them.

[smokeablount]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

No it doesn't, see the Memphis thread for that debate. 

EDIT - I hope 2 of those options aren't needed, but the way this season has gone so far, if I'm DA and NO won't do the deal unless we add Brown or Smart to Tatum/RW/Yabu/3 picks, I cave and make the deal.  And I think NO, being run my Mickey Loomis, knows it.

It does lose value, and alot of other poster agree, anything can happen to decrease the value of that pick. it is far from any sort of a guarantee to be better.

I dont think any way Danny makes a deal with Smart or Brown going out unless Tatum is staying. No chance at all. no one can offer anything close to that offer of Tatum, 3 picks this year, a pick next year, Yabs and Williams. The pressure is on NOP to accept now, not us. They declined LALs offer at deadline, and since then the value of their players has dropped ALOT and any offer from them this offseason will be less.

NOP Ownership wants this over with, and Danny is sitting here like Mr Burns waiting to release the dogs.

It doesn't have to be better, it just has to have the perceived possibility of landing top 3-5 or even #1 in 2021.  That possibility alone, combined with acquiring this potential top tier pick for a TON less than it would cost when/if it actually definitively lands top 5 or #1, is worth way more than pick #9 in a weak draft.  This is why teams have an impossible time moving into the top 3-5 of a draft at draft time.

You are focused on the instant gratification of a pick this year, but GMs in 2019 that make decisions based on instant gratification get fired.

[Silky]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

No it doesn't, see the Memphis thread for that debate. 

EDIT - I hope 2 of those options aren't needed, but the way this season has gone so far, if I'm DA and NO won't do the deal unless we add Brown or Smart to Tatum/RW/Yabu/3 picks, I cave and make the deal.  And I think NO, being run my Mickey Loomis, knows it.

It does lose value, and alot of other poster agree, anything can happen to decrease the value of that pick. it is far from any sort of a guarantee to be better.

I dont think any way Danny makes a deal with Smart or Brown going out unless Tatum is staying. No chance at all. no one can offer anything close to that offer of Tatum, 3 picks this year, a pick next year, Yabs and Williams. The pressure is on NOP to accept now, not us. They declined LALs offer at deadline, and since then the value of their players has dropped ALOT and any offer from them this offseason will be less.

NOP Ownership wants this over with, and Danny is sitting here like Mr Burns waiting to release the dogs.

It doesn't have to be better, it just has to have the perceived possibility of landing top 3-5 or even #1 in 2021.  That possibility alone, combined with acquiring this potential top tier pick for a TON less than it would cost when/if it actually definitively lands top 5 or #1, is worth way more than pick #9 in a weak draft.  This is why teams have an impossible time moving into the top 3-5 of a draft at draft time.

You are focused on the instant gratification of a pick this year, but GMs in 2019 that make decisions based on instant gratification get fired.

Even if, right now, it has the perceived ability to be top 5, then it will not translate next season.

So look at the season after that, and you are talking about selling the perception of a potential top 5 pick, in a draft that no one even knows yet or have watched play anyone that could potentially be in that draft.

or the number 9 pick this season.


I think 100% of GMs take the pick now.

[Silky]

No, no it is not.  that may be your preference and philosophy but it's not how many GMs would look at a future-unrestricted pick from a franchise with no realistic chances of improving.  Case in point, the Sac pick the C's got this year.  Danny wanted an unlimited pick for this year - an unknown -- than a known pick in last year's draft.  Did it work out for him?  Not really but Sac's improvement this year caught everyone in and out of the league by surprise.

Danny's move made perfect sense to take the future pick, not because it was an unknown, but because it was a better business decision.

Did not need another pick last season, did not need the extra salary, and instead needed an extra pick THIS year to add to a Davis deal. Everything Danny has done the last couple of seasons has been for Davis, that includes not wanting. Add to that everyone and their dogs knew that this years draft is and has always been better than last seasons draft.

The chances Mem picks a Donovan Mitchell-level rookie in this coming draft is extremely unlikely.  They have not shown the drafting acumen of finding that type of talent and it's not always a foregone conclusion that a player of that talent is still available at that point in the draft.  Could it happen?  sure, but highly unlikely.  NO may want that pick this year, but I wouldn't assume that they do since they'd have a number of other rookies being drafted with their own pick and the other picks the C's are giving them.

that was a counterpoint to the whole Memphis will not improve arguement. To most, a team with capspace, top 10 draft pick in a very nice draft and tradeable assets is more often than not going to improve the team. There is less reason to believe that Memphis will not improve than there is to believe they will improve. Generally speaking, capspace, picks and tradeable assets mean improvement, not getting worse.

I'll have to go back and look at the math again but I do recall several other posters in other threads stating that those players and picks wouldn't be sufficient financially to make the financial requirements.   Just because the C's sign rookies at 120% of scale doesn't mean NO would want them paid that much --> especially if it means the C's have to kick in another asset to make the money work.  it's in NO's interest to pay them less.  Also, if AD doesn't want to be traded to Boston, he's not waiving that trade kicker so that money has to be matched as well.  Also consider that if he's going to leave, he loses out on his big contract so he's likely to want to make up for that where he can which would be enforcing the trade kicker.

Almost every single rookie for the last 10 years has been signed at 120% base rookie salary. It is a complete rarity for a team not to sign them at less than or equal to. There is no reason, based on the reported deals, to assume that Davis will enact a trade kicker which will make it harder to trade him away from the team that he has demanded a trade from is counter-productive. He will not enforce that trade kicker unless NOP tries to trade him to a bad team. Playing winning basketball and winning championships will make him more money than a trade kicker.

We are working under the assumption that AD wants to come here, if he doesnt there is no way you deal anything of real value for him.

if that's all it took from the C's to make the deal, I think it'd be universally approved provided AD was going to resign with us.  However, I don't think it's going to be that "inexpensive".  Also, considering how much better Boston should be next year, NO will want this year's pick which will be somewhere 18-22. 

Then they can have this years pick

I don't disagree that the C's can put the best offer on the table regardless of who lands the #1 pick.  Lakers' youth are all tarnished in some way (health, skills, limited-potential), Knicks have a high draft pick and middling young players (no longer have Zinger to offer which would have been a great trade with the high pick this year), Philly's unlikely to move Simmons (and if I'm NO, I'd want Embiid instead) and no other franchise has the assets to trade nor serve as a likely destination where AD would likely resign with them.

at least we agree on something!!

Lol

[nickagneta]

Everyone knows that this year's draft would be better than last year's draft?

I was under the impression the opposite was true based on stuff I have been reading for two years.

[smokeablount]

I would be ecstatic if:

-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22. 

I don't think that's asking too much.  Most important to me is Memphis rolling over.  The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.

I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.

They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.

Immediately.

A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.

The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.

And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.

No it doesn't, see the Memphis thread for that debate. 

EDIT - I hope 2 of those options aren't needed, but the way this season has gone so far, if I'm DA and NO won't do the deal unless we add Brown or Smart to Tatum/RW/Yabu/3 picks, I cave and make the deal.  And I think NO, being run my Mickey Loomis, knows it.

It does lose value, and alot of other poster agree, anything can happen to decrease the value of that pick. it is far from any sort of a guarantee to be better.

I dont think any way Danny makes a deal with Smart or Brown going out unless Tatum is staying. No chance at all. no one can offer anything close to that offer of Tatum, 3 picks this year, a pick next year, Yabs and Williams. The pressure is on NOP to accept now, not us. They declined LALs offer at deadline, and since then the value of their players has dropped ALOT and any offer from them this offseason will be less.

NOP Ownership wants this over with, and Danny is sitting here like Mr Burns waiting to release the dogs.

It doesn't have to be better, it just has to have the perceived possibility of landing top 3-5 or even #1 in 2021.  That possibility alone, combined with acquiring this potential top tier pick for a TON less than it would cost when/if it actually definitively lands top 5 or #1, is worth way more than pick #9 in a weak draft.  This is why teams have an impossible time moving into the top 3-5 of a draft at draft time.

You are focused on the instant gratification of a pick this year, but GMs in 2019 that make decisions based on instant gratification get fired.

Even if, right now, it has the perceived ability to be top 5, then it will not translate next season.

So look at the season after that, and you are talking about selling the perception of a potential top 5 pick, in a draft that no one even knows yet or have watched play anyone that could potentially be in that draft.

or the number 9 pick this season.


I think 100% of GMs take the pick now.

That's a scorching hot take. 

[wiley]

Who are the teams who could surprise us with offers?   

Atlanta may have picks 5 and 6, plus Collins and Taurean Prince or the red haired wing shooter (help!), and other picks too.  Atlanta not on Davis' list, so they'd have to be confident they could sway him.

Denver is in the wrong conference and MPJ has injury concerns...but they could make a nice non-Jokic offer (they wouldn't and shouldn't offer Jokic).  Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, Barton, MPJ, future picks.

[Silky]

Everyone knows that this year's draft would be better than last year's draft?

I was under the impression the opposite was true based on stuff I have been reading for two years.

A quick google search will show you that people thought 2018 draft was solid, but there were few probable stars.

https://www.nba.com/da-big-board-wings-2018-draft

This years draft has been alot of talk about potential stars being more available than last seasons.

LAst year ealry projections had the top 5 as Bagley, Ayton, Bamba, Doncic and Porter Jr.

This year had
Williamson, Barrett, Reddish, Little, Bol Bol.

Alot more superstar potential in 2019s class.

And the early notes on next years draft is it being very weak.

[Silky]

Who are the teams who could surprise us with offers?   

Atlanta may have picks 5 and 6, plus Collins and Taurean Prince or the red haired wing shooter (help!), and other picks too.  Atlanta not on Davis' list, so they'd have to be confident they could sway him.

Denver is in the wrong conference and MPJ has injury concerns...but they could make a nice non-Jokic offer (they wouldn't and shouldn't offer Jokic).  Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, Barton, MPJ, future picks.

I dont think atlanta makes an offer, nor does Denver at this point, imo.

Atlanta is maintaining the youth and growth mode, they have Young, Huerter, Prince, Collins...they need a good center and having a top 6 pick will help there with some nice potential in this draft, there is also a potential Prince deal that can net them a piece.

I think they stay the course, maintain capspace and make a move in a couple years on a marquee free agent then.

Denver, I dont think they fix what isnt broken.