[Down 2-0, Do You Believe?] Updated: Down 3-1...How 'bout now?

[gouki88]

Kemba is a major disappointment come playoff time.

Disagree with this. He's been exactly what he was in the regular season, except his 3 point shot has disappeared.

Against Philly he averaged 24/4/4 on 49/30/92 shooting splits.

Against Toronto he averaged 17/6/4 on 42/28/84 shooting splits. Without his two shockers in G6 and G7 his averages are a quite rosy 20/6.5/3.5 on 49/32/89 shooting splits.

Against Miami he is averaging 21/5/5 on 40/25/78 shooting splits.

I get that his efficiency has been down, but that happens to most small guards come playoff time. He has been one of our best in some games (G4 against Philly, G1 against Toronto, G3 against Toronto, G2 against Miami). He has had bad games, and I've been as mad as anyone. But I would really love to know your expectations if he's been a 'major disappointment'

I wouldn't say it's been a "major" disappointment, but I have been hoping for more from him. The dip in 3-pt percentage is a problem for the Cs, and he hasn't made up for it in other areas. I don't see better game management or ball distribution. He's contributed to stagnant ball movement, and especially against Toronto, failed iso-ball.

Size can be a problem for in the playoffs, but I don't think that's all there is to it. Kyle Lowry and Fred Van Vleet are both listed at 6'0". It's true that Toronto's out of the playoffs, but Pascal Siakam had a lot more to do with that. Lowry was probably the second best player in that series (to Tatum) and I'm sure some people would say he was the best.

Wanamaker seems to have raised his game as well.

I feel like FVV is a more apt comparison than Lowry, because Lowry is built similarly to Marcus Smart.

FVV however is a skill-based small guard, and he majorly struggled these playoffs. Against us he shot 35% from the field and 30% from 3. Now, we’re an elite defence, but even against BKN he struggled. Most players take some efficiency hits during the playoffs, it’s just been my experience that small finessing guards can be hit more by it. Even the most unstoppable of them (Curry and Lillard) experience this, and they’re bigger than Kemba

[Androslav]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

[Celtics Mike]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3　
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off

[Androslav]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3　
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off

Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

[Celtics Mike]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3　
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off

Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

Don't want Celtics to be complacent that's why the big leads disappeared
Hence be ready for Spoelstra's expected adjustments
Would also like to see the athleticism of Timelord used to defend Bam when Theis gets into early foul trouble

[Vermont Green]

I think these are two very evenly matched teams, up and down.  I don't buy the conclusion that the Heat are clearly inferior.  Or if they are, they are not by all that much.  At least not so long as Herro and Robinson continue to play the way they have.

I think that historically, as the playoffs/series get deeper and the pressure ramps up, younger guys tend to feel it more than veterans.  Now Duncan Robinson (born York, ME, attended Williams College) is 26.  He is actually older than Brown and Tatum and the same age as Smart.  This is his second year and I think his first playoff experience but being 26 is a lot different than being 20 like Herro.  I will be curious how these two guys hold up as things progress in the series.

Our key young guys, primarily Tatum and Brown are young but they have an unusual amount of playoff experience, and experience being a key player, for such young players.  With the ability to lean on Walker and now Hayward as veterans, I hope these guys to hold up and continue to play well.  To me, that is a key part of the equation with Hayward, he is a solid veteran and helps us to equalize the experience advantage that the Heat have on us.

My prediction now is that Herro and Robinson will falter some, Dragic, Crowder, and Butler will continue to play well as veterans, but now with Hayward back and the novelty of the zone starting to wear off, advantage Celtics.  Slight advantage though, this could still easily go either way based on a couple of lucky shots or a call or two by the refs.  I see things as that close.

[CelticsPoetry]

I think these are two very evenly matched teams, up and down.  I don't buy the conclusion that the Heat are clearly inferior.  Or if they are, they are not by all that much.  At least not so long as Herro and Robinson continue to play the way they have.

I think that historically, as the playoffs/series get deeper and the pressure ramps up, younger guys tend to feel it more than veterans.  Now Duncan Robinson (born York, ME, attended Williams College) is 26.  He is actually older than Brown and Tatum and the same age as Smart.  This is his second year and I think his first playoff experience but being 26 is a lot different than being 20 like Herro.  I will be curious how these two guys hold up as things progress in the series.

Our key young guys, primarily Tatum and Brown are young but they have an unusual amount of playoff experience, and experience being a key player, for such young players.  With the ability to lean on Walker and now Hayward as veterans, I hope these guys to hold up and continue to play well.  To me, that is a key part of the equation with Hayward, he is a solid veteran and helps us to equalize the experience advantage that the Heat have on us.

My prediction now is that Herro and Robinson will falter some, Dragic, Crowder, and Butler will continue to play well as veterans, but now with Hayward back and the novelty of the zone starting to wear off, advantage Celtics.  Slight advantage though, this could still easily go either way based on a couple of lucky shots or a call or two by the refs.  I see things as that close.

Wow didnt know Duncan is 26. Our young studs have a crazy amount of playoff experience, maybe someone can pull out some stats, but having players that young with dozens of playoffs wins as key contributors must be historically good. Regarding the lucky shots you mentioned in the end of your post - like Androslav said, they already used up their lucky punches, one would think you only get a limited amount of those. Let's see!!

[Celtics Mike]

I think these are two very evenly matched teams, up and down.  I don't buy the conclusion that the Heat are clearly inferior.  Or if they are, they are not by all that much.  At least not so long as Herro and Robinson continue to play the way they have.

I think that historically, as the playoffs/series get deeper and the pressure ramps up, younger guys tend to feel it more than veterans.  Now Duncan Robinson (born York, ME, attended Williams College) is 26.  He is actually older than Brown and Tatum and the same age as Smart.  This is his second year and I think his first playoff experience but being 26 is a lot different than being 20 like Herro.  I will be curious how these two guys hold up as things progress in the series.

Our key young guys, primarily Tatum and Brown are young but they have an unusual amount of playoff experience, and experience being a key player, for such young players.  With the ability to lean on Walker and now Hayward as veterans, I hope these guys to hold up and continue to play well.  To me, that is a key part of the equation with Hayward, he is a solid veteran and helps us to equalize the experience advantage that the Heat have on us.

My prediction now is that Herro and Robinson will falter some, Dragic, Crowder, and Butler will continue to play well as veterans, but now with Hayward back and the novelty of the zone starting to wear off, advantage Celtics.  Slight advantage though, this could still easily go either way based on a couple of lucky shots or a call or two by the refs.  I see things as that close.

Wow didnt know Duncan is 26. Our young studs have a crazy amount of playoff experience, maybe someone can pull out some stats, but having players that young with dozens of playoffs wins as key contributors must be historically good. Regarding the lucky shots you mentioned in the end of your post - like Androslav said, they already used up their lucky punches, one would think you only get a limited amount of those. Let's see!!

Rather than focus on lucky Heat 3s I prefer to see an attitude that is more committed to Stop the 3s. 3s are a big part of Heat Offense and also of the Raptors Offense in the previous series. When 3s are an important focus of such opponents scoring then it's more than luck that makes them fall. I did see Robinson practicing his 3s in the pre-game warm up and he didn't seem to miss. If Celtics can lock down Heat 3s in the same way they shut down Raptors in Game 5 of the previous series this immediately removes Heats ability to over turn Celtics leads.

[ddt27]

I agree with everything said, but in the buble atmosphere I don't think age and experience will have that greater impact, especially when we are talking about these series "experience range" we have some, but not a lot, neither the heat..

[ddt27]

I think these are two very evenly matched teams, up and down.  I don't buy the conclusion that the Heat are clearly inferior.  Or if they are, they are not by all that much.  At least not so long as Herro and Robinson continue to play the way they have.

I think that historically, as the playoffs/series get deeper and the pressure ramps up, younger guys tend to feel it more than veterans.  Now Duncan Robinson (born York, ME, attended Williams College) is 26.  He is actually older than Brown and Tatum and the same age as Smart.  This is his second year and I think his first playoff experience but being 26 is a lot different than being 20 like Herro.  I will be curious how these two guys hold up as things progress in the series.

Our key young guys, primarily Tatum and Brown are young but they have an unusual amount of playoff experience, and experience being a key player, for such young players.  With the ability to lean on Walker and now Hayward as veterans, I hope these guys to hold up and continue to play well.  To me, that is a key part of the equation with Hayward, he is a solid veteran and helps us to equalize the experience advantage that the Heat have on us.

My prediction now is that Herro and Robinson will falter some, Dragic, Crowder, and Butler will continue to play well as veterans, but now with Hayward back and the novelty of the zone starting to wear off, advantage Celtics.  Slight advantage though, this could still easily go either way based on a couple of lucky shots or a call or two by the refs.  I see things as that close.

Wow didnt know Duncan is 26. Our young studs have a crazy amount of playoff experience, maybe someone can pull out some stats, but having players that young with dozens of playoffs wins as key contributors must be historically good. Regarding the lucky shots you mentioned in the end of your post - like Androslav said, they already used up their lucky punches, one would think you only get a limited amount of those. Let's see!!

Rather than focus on lucky Heat 3s I prefer to see an attitude that is more committed to Stop the 3s. 3s are a big part of Heat Offense and also of the Raptors Offense in the previous series. When 3s are an important focus of such opponents scoring then it's more than luck that makes them fall. I did see Robinson practicing his 3s in the pre-game warm up and he didn't seem to miss. If Celtics can lock down Heat 3s in the same way they shut down Raptors in Game 5 of the previous series this immediately removes Heats ability to over turn Celtics leads.

I agree with everything said, but in the buble atmosphere I don't think age and experience will have that greater impact, especially when we are talking about these series "experience range", we have some but, not a lot, neither the heat..

[Androslav]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3　
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off

Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

Don't want Celtics to be complacent that's why the big leads disappeared
Hence be ready for Spoelstra's expected adjustments
Would also like to see the athleticism of Timelord used to defend Bam when Theis gets into early foul trouble

It remains to be seen. I do wonder if he has the room for adjustments within his personnel.

Regarding RW, I don't think this is a series for him.
The game demands many quick reads and Rob isn't the one who can make them correctly.
That is the main reason why he hasn't played much in the 1st place.

[Celtics Mike]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3　
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off

Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

Don't want Celtics to be complacent that's why the big leads disappeared
Hence be ready for Spoelstra's expected adjustments
Would also like to see the athleticism of Timelord used to defend Bam when Theis gets into early foul trouble

It remains to be seen. I do wonder if he has the room for adjustments within his personnel.

Regarding RW, I don't think this is a series for him.
The game demands many quick reads and Rob isn't the one who can make them correctly.
That is the main reason why he hasn't played much in the 1st place.

Thanks for the valuable insight to explain the DNP Coaches Decision regarding RW.

[footey]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3　
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off

Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

Don't want Celtics to be complacent that's why the big leads disappeared
Hence be ready for Spoelstra's expected adjustments
Would also like to see the athleticism of Timelord used to defend Bam when Theis gets into early foul trouble

It remains to be seen. I do wonder if he has the room for adjustments within his personnel.

Regarding RW, I don't think this is a series for him.
The game demands many quick reads and Rob isn't the one who can make them correctly.
That is the main reason why he hasn't played much in the 1st place.

Disagree. The few minutes he matched up vs Bam, he played well.  He matches up vs Bam better than any of our centers, it is not even close. And I continue to harp on this because Bam is the guy who leads the guy who kills us the most.   Plus Bam is not a pick and pop center, which is where Rob struggles. 

[KGs Knee]

I've maintained th Celtics are the more talented team the whole time and that appears even more evident with Gordy back.

There's obviously still plenty to be hopeful about. 

[nyceltsfan]

I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.

Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3　
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off

Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

Don't want Celtics to be complacent that's why the big leads disappeared
Hence be ready for Spoelstra's expected adjustments
Would also like to see the athleticism of Timelord used to defend Bam when Theis gets into early foul trouble

It remains to be seen. I do wonder if he has the room for adjustments within his personnel.

Regarding RW, I don't think this is a series for him.
The game demands many quick reads and Rob isn't the one who can make them correctly.
That is the main reason why he hasn't played much in the 1st place.

Disagree. The few minutes he matched up vs Bam, he played well.  He matches up vs Bam better than any of our centers, it is not even close. And I continue to harp on this because Bam is the guy who leads the guy who kills us the most.   Plus Bam is not a pick and pop center, which is where Rob struggles.

Yes, but the Celtics switch everything and Robert Williams cannot cover the perimeter.  Neither can Kanter, but Kanter puts pressure on the Heat to secure rebounds and he is a threat to score inside.  It seemed to me that Grant Williams was effective as was the small ball lineup, because it can draw Adebayo out of the middle and gives the Celtics a chance to drive.  I like the idea of attacking Duncan Robinson and getting him into foul trouble to disrupt his rhythm.  I am hoping they can be effective doing that with Dragic or Herro as well, but they seem more savvy at the defensive end.

Let's not let our guard down in game 4.  The Heat are ready to pounce on mistakes and although we have looked like the better team talent wise, we have not looked as locked in as the Heat for the majority of the series, IMO.  Even in the last game, we almost blew a big lead again.  The flagrant foul on Jaylen Brown, some missed passes, etc.  These mistakes have been extremely costly in this series and focus and attention to detail are so important, along with staying ultra aggressive in getting to the hoop.