CB Draft Eastern Semis: (1) Bulls vs. (4) Celtics

[Roy H.]

[Kane3387]

Matchups











Bulls Bench -  Jarret Jack, Jeremy Lamb, Jimmy Butler, Alexey Shved, Thad Young, Chandler Parsons, Brendan Haywood, Nikola Vucevic

Celtic's Bench - Rip, S Jack, Livingston, Gray, Semih, G. Green, T. Robinson, Ross

[Roy H.]

You picked the one picture that makes Bosh look tough, and Griffin look clueless!

The big question:  can your wings keep up with Chicago's?  I'll accept that Artest can majorly limit Pierce -- he historically has been able to do so.  However, who's stopping Wade, decline or no decline?  Unlike in the "real" Finals, you don't have a defender the quality of Thabo to stick on him to allow Westbrook to conserve energy.

[Kane3387]

You picked the one picture that makes Bosh look tough, and Griffin look clueless!

The big question:  can your wings keep up with Chicago's?  I'll accept that Artest can majorly limit Pierce -- he historically has been able to do so.  However, who's stopping Wade, decline or no decline?  Unlike in the "real" Finals, you don't have a defender the quality of Thabo to stick on him to allow Westbrook to conserve energy.

Thabo played a lot on James too. He also played on average 25 mpg. Westbrook will be playing the two. Thus Russell will defend Wade and Wade will defend Russell.

Dwyane Wade plays with LeBron James and here is what he said about Russ:

“I always say this is a very good team, but Russell Westbrook is what makes them very special, because there's no one else like him in the NBA," Wade said. "I think he's personally I think he's the most athletic guy in the NBA for what he does and how he does it and how quick he does it."

I feel for my team at worse this is a draw. Wade couldn't keep Russell in front of him and that's because he is one of the few players he can't beat athletically. I think we both agree that while Wade is still great, he is in decline. Now the level of decline is open for discussion, but Westbrook is getting better and presents matchup issues for Wade.

Here is some more from Wade on Russell. Spoelstra chimes in as well.

"We're going to have our hands full, and I'm going to have to guard him a lot and just try to give him different looks, and whoever else has to guard him, as well," Wade said. "But very tough cover, man.”

With the way the Heat talked Monday, it almost sounded like they were more concerned with corralling Westbrook rather than the reigning three-time scoring champ.

"[Westbrook's] end-to-end as explosive as anybody in this league," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "He plays with incredible force."

[Kane3387]

You picked the one picture that makes Bosh look tough, and Griffin look clueless!

Really? I thought it looked like he was grimacing in frustration at how he couldn't impose e his will on Blake. 

Anyways everyone on this blog know that "tough" and Chris Bosh don't go together unless there is an "isn't" in there.

As for this matchup. I think it at worse plays out evenly.

In there match ups they play pretty evenly H2H. Griffin gets the boards and scores a little more. Bosh holds his own though and I see this as an even matchup.

Below is a link for the H2H stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boshch01&p2=griffbl01

Also this a quick matchup from Blake's rookie year. I think it displays how Blake could fare in this series against Bosh or one of the Bull's Centers as Joel Anthony is similar, if not better, then any of his Centers defensively.

Blake has the quickness and athleticism to score consistently. He can put the ball on the floor or overpower the opposition. About a one minute video - quick watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-2ogxLL3V8

[Kane3387]

Keep in mind the video above is from Blake's rookie year. Blake is better and improved. This is also from his rookie year with Baron Davis, not CP3.

I really believe Russell V Wade and Griffin V Bosh are at worst a draw for Boston.

[Fafnir]

I think Westbrook playing the SG position makes him less impactful overall. Wade is still the superior player, even if his athleticism has faded behind what Westbrook is currently capable of.

[indeedproceed]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=holidjr01&p2=westbru01

Jrue Holiday will match Westbrook minute for minute. 
Westbrook v Holiday: 40% shooting, 12.5% from deep, 19 pts, 11 assists, 5 turnovers
Holiday in the matchup: 17 points, 50+% shooting, standard everything else.

Marc Gasol is awesome, but you know how good he is at defending Chris Bosh? Not great. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boshch01&p2=gasolma01

Bosh: 58%shooting 9.3 boards, 26 points.

Gasol did okay, he managed 12.7 points and 8 Boards with a dandy 52% shooting. He also managed 4 fouls in 33 minutes.

Another interesting fact: Blake Griffin hasnt done all that great against Thad Young's teams. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=youngth01&p2=griffbl01

Now I can't pretend these are all Young's doings. But in the two games where he played the most minutes, Griffin shot 
42% in one, and 37% in another. 

Bosh will play the most in the frontcourt, young will clock in around 30, and Haywood/Splitter will pickup the spare at the center, while Chandler Parsons will play ~5 mins or so at the 4. 

I don't buy that Ron Artest can still limit Paul Pierce, Ron Artest fell off a cliff somewhere between 2010 and today, and while he will try to bully Pierce, he'll be a net negative on offense. Stephen Jackson/Rip Hamilton will get ripped apart at the 2, and if Kane wants Russell Westbrook to defend Wade, that's fine too. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wadedw01&p2=westbru01

Wade had a bad finals with a knee injury he had surgery on a month ago. He's fine now, cleaned it up, and I fully expect Wade to resume his dominance of Russell Westbrook. 

Bulls in 5.

[Kane3387]

Pierce Vs Artest

I want to touch on the Pierce and Artest matchup. People on here are hard on Artest and I understand that. He doesn't bring consistent effort and focus, but like in 2010 he brought to his team for a potential match up with Paul Pierce.

Pierce brings out the best in Artest defensively. They're rivals in his eyes going all the way back to the Indiana and shorts being pulled down days. Artest always gets up for match ups with Paul. He comes to play against and he will in this series.

"He likes to bang you," Pierce said Monday, "grab you, hold you, pull your shorts down. He's going to try anything."

"I matched up with him the last 10, 11 years. He's one of the best defenders I've ever played against," Pierce said of Artest. "He'll try anything just to try to get into his opponent's head. But I think just from playing against him over the years I've become used to the things that he tries to do and I just try to go out there and play my game, not really get into the antics with him."

Now I don't think Artest intimidation and head games do anything against Pierce. But the fact that Pierce has lost a few steps from a quickness and athleticism standpoint means he doesn't have any strengths that take advantage of Artest weaknesses.

Artest is perfect for defending Pierce. He barely leaves his feet anymore which against Pierce is key b/c Paul is a master of the shot fake. Artest is one of the few wing players on the planet Pierce can not overpower. Pierce has trouble with guys as strong on him.

Early in their careers Pierce, an underrated athlete, could still get his points against Artest. He just had to work more. But over the last few years as Pierce has slowed the matchup has gotten more difficult.

Here is the H2H matchup.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=piercpa01&p2=artesro01

In looking at Artest Vs Pierce since Ron went to LA in 2010 Pierce gets points in an efficient manner about once every 5 games. Here are Pierce's numbers since 2010 against Artest.

Regular Season
2010 - 13 pts on 14 shots for .286 fg%
2010 - 18 pts on 18 shots for .389 fg%
2011 - 15 pts on 15 shots for .400 fg%
2011 - 32 pts on 18 shots for .600 fg%
2012 - 11 pts on   9 shots for .444 fg%
2012 - 15 pts on 11 shots for .364 fg%

Playoffs (Finals) 2010
Gm 1 - 24 pts on 13 shots for .462 fg%
Gm 2 - 10 pts on 11 shots for .182 fg%
Gm 3 - 15 pts on 12 shots for .417 fg%
Gm 4 - 19 pts on 12 shots for .583 fg%
Gm 5 - 27 pts on 21 shots for .571 fg%
Gm 6 - 13 pts on 14 shots for .429 fg%
Gm 7 - 18 pts on 15 shots for .333 fg%

In game 1 we were getting blown out and a lot of Pierce's points were from the line when the game was out of reach. He was 12 of 13 from the line.

Point is, is that Artest has shown consistently he can hold Pierce to around 40% shooting and under 20 ppg. If Artest does that then I think we can win this series. If Pierce is shooting 50% and averaging 26 ppg then I don't think we can.

[Kane3387]

I think Westbrook playing the SG position makes him less impactful overall. Wade is still the superior player, even if his athleticism has faded behind what Westbrook is currently capable of.

Westbrook will handle the ball a lot still. But we want him matched up with Wade to make him work. If Holiday is guarding Westbrook then we are fine with that too, but Russ will defend Wade.

[Kane3387]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=holidjr01&p2=westbru01

Jrue Holiday will match Westbrook minute for minute.
Westbrook v Holiday: 40% shooting, 12.5% from deep, 19 pts, 11 assists, 5 turnovers
Holiday in the matchup: 17 points, 50+% shooting, standard everything else.

Westbrook is not who he was in 2009... This is 2012 and he is far better. In his last 3 games against Holiday. Russ had:

31 pts, 12 asts, 5 rebs
27 pts, 12 asts, 5 rebs
22 pts,   4 asts, 13 rebs of which 7 were offensive

Russ's game has grown exponentially since 2009. We like him being guarded by Holiday by more then Wade. He still defends Wade.

Marc Gasol is awesome, but you know how good he is at defending Chris Bosh? Not great.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boshch01&p2=gasolma01

Bosh: 58%shooting 9.3 boards, 26 points.

Gasol did okay, he managed 12.7 points and 8 Boards with a dandy 52% shooting. He also managed 4 fouls in 33 minutes.

Did Bosh guard Gasol? I doubt it. Chances are he guarded ZBo. Chances are also great that Gasol defended a Center and not Bosh. Bosh basically going one on two against Griffin and Gasol is huge disadvantage for the Bulls.

Another interesting fact: Blake Griffin hasnt done all that great against Thad Young's teams.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=youngth01&p2=griffbl01

Now I can't pretend these are all Young's doings. But in the two games where he played the most minutes, Griffin shot
42% in one, and 37% in another.

Elton Brand defended Blake. Young averaged 21 mpg against Blake's Clippers.

Bosh will play the most in the frontcourt, young will clock in around 30, and Haywood/Splitter will pickup the spare at the center, while Chandler Parsons will play ~5 mins or so at the 4.

This is the playoffs. Griffin is going for 41 mpg. Only 3.8 minutes more then his career average. Gasol will be playing more minutes and playing 40 mpg. Only 2.7 more then what he averaged in the playoffs this year. Your backups can play as much as they want against our All-Stars. Marc is entering his prime and Blake is only 24. They will be fine.

I don't buy that Ron Artest can still limit Paul Pierce, Ron Artest fell off a cliff somewhere between 2010 and today, and while he will try to bully Pierce, he'll be a net negative on offense.

After the 2011 season Hollinger on Artest.

World Peace can still defend, posting the best defensive plus-minus on the Lakers at
minus-4.66 points per 100 possessions, according to basketballvalue.com, and surrendering just a 13.9 PER to opposing small forwards, according to 82games.com. Synergy rated him second only to LeBron James among small forwards, and he led his position in steals per minute.

This year Artest played with a pinched nerve. Had no training camp and had an inconsistent role in the beginning of the year. His game steadily improved all year. The numbers against Paul speak for themselves.

April didn't just offer great numbers, but also quality leadership. With Kobe out, MWP took the leadership reins and went out of his way to lend an instructive voice to huddles. And MWP deserves props for successfully working his way back into shape after the lockout prevented him from addressing with Gary Vitti and company a lingering nerve issue in his back. (Opting not to disclose the ailment, rather than create the vibe of excuses, was admirable in its own right as well.)

http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/lakers/post/_/id/31150/2011-2012-report-card-metta-world-peace

Stephen Jackson/Rip Hamilton will get ripped apart at the 2, and if Kane wants Russell Westbrook to defend Wade, that's fine too.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wadedw01&p2=westbru01

Russ will play around 43-44 mpg. Most will be at the two when Wade is in. Feel free to play Wade that many minutes.

Wade had a bad finals with a knee injury he had surgery on a month ago. He's fine now, cleaned it up, and I fully expect Wade to resume his dominance of Russell Westbrook.

Wade really had a bad year by his standards. LeBron James carried him. Wade missed nearly a third of the season and seemed to only show up for the second halves of playoff games. He got steadily worse as the year went on. Wade is always hurt.

[Kane3387]

I think this series basically comes down to Jrue Holiday Vs DJ Augustine. And then either Griffin or Gasol that is not matched up with Bosh.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=augusdj01&p2=holidjr01

The numbers are almost even. Holiday is a little bit better in most categories, but it isn't that big of a difference. DJ always matches up with Jrue and has been very steady against him. He averages just as many points in their match ups and has nearly the same fg%. He averages less then 2 assts less then Holiday and about the same number of rebounds.

Bosh is being oversold here. The Ru' Paul of big man will not dominate either of my bigs. Either one will play him evenly. A big disadvantage is Young guarding Griffin or Gasol. They will feast on this matchup.

[Fafnir]

If you're making the series come down to DJ Augustin....

That's like arguing Glen Davis or Brandon Bass will decide a series, doesn't make much sense.

[Fafnir]

So Westbrook is Holiday's primary assignment?

[indeedproceed]

Bosh will light up Gasol's life. Wade's gonna use his physicality and talent to make Westbrook break his back guarding him, Holiday is going to significantly limit Westbrook, making Westbrook work way too hard on both ends for middling results.

The fact is that these Celtics don't have the accessories to make their main weapons work. No Harden to help move the ball, no gifted passers on the wing, no Z-Bo to counter Gasol, no Chris Paul to elevate Blake Griffin's game beyond a highlight machine and not much else.

The Bulls are and impressive team, facing an impressive collection of individual talents that don't really bring out the best in each other.