Most NBA fans and Celtic fans have capped Rozier's upside. They say he could probably be a decent starter on a decent team.
But are we underestimating the growth to his game? Are we underestimating his upside?
I have no statistical evidence for this. I can't pull some random advanced stat out of the number piles on basketball reference, build a narrative around it, and prove that he is the next great point guard. Even if I could, I know many of you would find it suspect.
I only have three reasons to wonder if we are capping his upside too low.
1. Ainge and Stevens love the guy. They are two of the best basketball minds and talent evaluators in the world. They believe in him. For a player like Rozier to be great, he has to have the support of the front office and coaching staff.
2. Rozier is an elite athlete. Every test at the combine was off the charts, from his wingspan, to his quickness, to his vertical.
3. There is a precedent (outlier?) for elite athletes drafted in the middle of the first round, whose coaches and front offices believed in. Players like Leonard, Giannis, George took years to develop, but they never stopped getting better until they became all-stars. They forced their way onto the court, despite talented players being ahead of them (Danny Granger in Indiana, Richard Jefferson and Stephen Jackson in San Antonio, and Kris Middleton and Jabari Parker in Milwaukee). The fire of competition refined their games. Rozier is forcing his way onto the court, even though Irving, Hayward, Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all in line for minutes in front of him.
I'm not saying we should anoint Rozier as the next great Celtic, but I am saying that we should hold off on putting a roof on his game for the next few seasons. Maybe Ainge and Stevens see something in him we don't.