Author Topic: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?  (Read 4025 times)

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Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« on: October 02, 2018, 09:54:16 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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Most NBA fans and Celtic fans have capped Rozier's upside. They say he could probably be a decent starter on a decent team.

But are we underestimating the growth to his game? Are we underestimating his upside?

I have no statistical evidence for this. I can't pull some random advanced stat out of the number piles on basketball reference, build a narrative around it, and prove that he is the next great point guard. Even if I could, I know many of you would find it suspect.

I only have three reasons to wonder if we are capping his upside too low.

1. Ainge and Stevens love the guy. They are two of the best basketball minds and talent evaluators in the world. They believe in him. For a player like Rozier to be great, he has to have the support of the front office and coaching staff.

2. Rozier is an elite athlete. Every test at the combine was off the charts, from his wingspan, to his quickness, to his vertical.

3. There is a precedent (outlier?) for elite athletes drafted in the middle of the first round, whose coaches and front offices believed in. Players like Leonard, Giannis, George took years to develop, but they never stopped getting better until they became all-stars. They forced their way onto the court, despite talented players being ahead of them (Danny Granger in Indiana, Richard Jefferson and Stephen Jackson in San Antonio, and Kris Middleton and Jabari Parker in Milwaukee). The fire of competition refined their games. Rozier is forcing his way onto the court, even though Irving, Hayward, Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all in line for minutes in front of him.

I'm not saying we should anoint Rozier as the next great Celtic, but I am saying that we should hold off on putting a roof on his game for the next few seasons. Maybe Ainge and Stevens see something in him we don't.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2018, 11:37:55 AM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Re: Is Rozier Better than We Think He Is?
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 10:26:46 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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I appreciate the grounded optimism. I want to see how much Rozier can grow this year - I'm not ready to say he is done getting better.

Our PG rotation 1-3 has to be the best in the league.

Re: Is Rozier Better than We Think He Is?
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2018, 10:50:26 AM »

Offline td450

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Good post.

Rozier does look different this year in ways that you see when someone makes a leap. He looks like the game is slowing down for him, and he isn't making his mind up in advance so much any more.

I'm guessing he'll move ahead of Smart, although they won't have identical roles.

Re: Is Rozier Better than We Think He Is?
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2018, 11:03:37 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I think Terry Rozier in a bigger role would be a top-12 point guard. Honestly I'm not sure how good he can be. He's not an elite ball handler. He is a good but not great shooter. He's a very good defender. He's an elite rebounder. He's an okay passer but more than that he doesn't turn the ball over.

He's a weird stat profile. After Irving went down last year he averaged roughly 15ppg, 5 asts, 6 REB's, and 1.6 TO's.

To put that in context, he had a 9.6 TOV% over that timespan. The only other players who had 15 pts, 6 boards, 5 assists over last season were Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, and Ben Simmons.

Terry's 9.6 TOV% would easily rate as the most efficient among those players.

I think the key to Terry being an actual star (likely on another team) will be his ability to get into the paint and score consistently. Well and not take a step back with his 3pt shooting. Terry shot under 40% from the field last season,  but still had a 52% TS%. His finishing at the rim was "fine" but there is definite room for improvement. His midrange game isn't good but he doesn't use it much.

But this year I think Terry is out to prove he can be exactly that type of guy. He worked extensively in the off-season on new ways to score around the basket, he's worked on his handles, I'm sure he continued to work on his 3 ball. He's hungry and he knows that a successful year means an 8-figure paycheck.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: Is Rozier Better than We Think He Is?
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2018, 11:09:50 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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Good post.

Rozier does look different this year in ways that you see when someone makes a leap. He looks like the game is slowing down for him, and he isn't making his mind up in advance so much any more.

I'm guessing he'll move ahead of Smart, although they won't have identical roles.

Saw some really interesting flashes - like when he threw a well-timed alley-oop. We have really been missing that from him. If he's still able to score but isn't locked into a score-first mentality and can take a pass that's available he'll really make a leap.

Re: Is Rozier Better than We Think He Is?
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2018, 11:22:26 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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I think as an athlete, as a scorer, rozier is looking downright electric.  I think in that sense he continues to exceed my expectations.  He looks to be in midseason form right now.

Where the rubber meets the road however is whether he can do the things a PG is expected to do consistently.  Can he run the offense, get others involved, make the simple play, and not take dumb shots. 

But yeah, it's going to be tough seeing rozier on another team next year.

Re: Is Rozier Better than We Think He Is?
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 11:28:02 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I see rozier as a smaller Westbrook lite type of player. Obviously less numbers than Westbrook across the board but similar strengths... ability to rebound, somewhat bouncy and athleticism inside and decent outside shot.

I agree there is a chance we are underestimating. The nba is a gamble everytime. We also thought rondo would be a superstar. I remember I thought Ben Gordon would be a star lol

Re: Is Rozier Better than We Think He Is?
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 11:34:09 AM »

Offline footey

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If he continues to play at this level, the market for him this off-season should be robust. Would not be surprised to see him command 15mm/year for 4 years.

Would be nice if we could lock him up now to a hometown discount, and have him for another 3 years.  Not just as Kyrie insurance--I expect that Kyrie will re-up with Boston for Max-- but because the kid is special. Plus I love the fact that we drafted him, he was bashed by some of the more prolific posters on this board, and has outplayed everyone's expectations, including my own.

Re: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 11:55:02 AM »

Offline Emmette Bryant

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My memory is that he was projected to be a 2nd round pick in 2015.

I think that you can argue now that he should have been a top 10 pick.

Wonder where the sixers would be if they drafted Rozier instead of Okafor

Re: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2018, 12:12:25 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I think Rozier is good enough to be a starting PG on a championship team already and will probably get better some.  But he is not going to be "the guy" on a championship team, just a solid player.  I hate to bring up old debates but look at Rondo on the Pierce-Garnett-Allen team.  Rozier would give you different things than Rondo but he could give as much I think.

This is why I don't think it is entirely out of the realm of possibility that Irving is traded.  It would take getting Davis or Towns back or some other player of that tier.  We would loss some making Rozier (or Smart) the starter over Irving but we would improve dramatically at Big.  We would still have too many wings to start them all but that would be a very good and well balanced team.


Re: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2018, 02:20:41 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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What interests me about Rozier. He pushes the pace, his natural pace is faster than Kyries. He's always in attack mode. At times he bumps greatness. He plays tough honest defense too.

On the flip side, he doesn't excel quite yet in running an offense, he gets wild sometimes and stops passing the ball. Then he'll suddenly just disappear.

I don't think he's quite finished growing yet either.

Re: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2018, 02:45:50 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Yes. Absolutely. Not better than I think he is though. Rozier will absolutely be better than Kyrie in Four years. He's was close to being as good as Irving right now than many here believe.

Re: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2018, 03:17:41 PM »

Online hwangjini_1

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 Yes. Absolutely. Not better than I think he is though. Rozier will absolutely be better than Kyrie in Four years. He's was close to being as good as Irving right now than many here believe.
you really should not drink this early in the day.  ;D
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Re: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 03:54:14 PM »

Offline bopna

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He is becoming what we all envisioned how AB would be...A combo 1/2.

AB is better defensively but I firmly believe TRo has way better diverse offensively and way better ballhandling and can create for himself.

Re: Is Rozier Better Than We Think He Is?
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 04:08:00 PM »

Offline Redz

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I think he’s exactly as I good as I think he is, but that’s just what I think.

I think
Yup