Is Horford a Hall of Fame lock?

[Donoghus]

Given how the HOF seems to more of a "Hall of Very Good" anyways, it wouldn't shock me if Horford is already knocking on the door.

Win a title or two as a key player and he's almost certainly in.

[BitterJim]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Wow, it's pretty surprising that height actually works against you in their model

Also, if you look the the active leaders, the cliff between #13 (Pau Gasol) and #14 (Kevin Love) is huge

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Wow, it's pretty surprising that height actually works against you in their model

Also, if you look the the active leaders, the cliff between #13 (Pau Gasol) and #14 (Kevin Love) is huge

the model is based on looking at the attributes of the players that make the HOF and then figuring out why they got in and then applying that to everyone else.

And the cliff between Pau and Love should be huge.  Pau is basically a guaranteed entrant, while Love is not and has work to do (though he likely gets in if he can stay relatively healthy and produce similarly over the next few seasons).   

[greece66]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Wow, it's pretty surprising that height actually works against you in their model

Also, if you look the the active leaders, the cliff between #13 (Pau Gasol) and #14 (Kevin Love) is huge

I think you got a point, they tried to keep their model simple using only 5 predictor variables.
This translates poorly with some outliers like Kawhi Leonard, who has a ton of accolades but only 2 all star appearances (0.06 -not a typo).

The word predictor is a bit of a misnomer too, the model tries to capture the chances of any given player if his career stopped today (or to be more specific, at the end of the last season he was active). This works against younger players and might explain the gap between Pau Gasol and Kevin Love.

[Surferdad]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

I disagree.  HOF honor is given to an individual, but that doesn't mean it is only about individual performance, it is about both.

Why isn't Wilt considered GOAT based on his individuals stats?  Then there's the opposite case:
 For many years, I considered Bill Russell to be GOAT, full-stop, because of the 11 titles.  I have changed my thinking because that thinking excludes individual performance.  You have to consider both individual and team success.  (BTW, if pressed I would go with MJ as GOAT).

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

I disagree.  HOF honor is given to an individual, but that doesn't mean it is only about individual performance, it is about both.

Why isn't Wilt considered GOAT based on his individuals stats?  Then there's the opposite case:
 For many years, I considered Bill Russell to be GOAT, full-stop, because of the 11 titles.  I have changed my thinking because that thinking excludes individual performance.  You have to consider both individual and team success.  (BTW, if pressed I would go with MJ as GOAT).

Until Jordan, Wilt was fairly widely regarded as the best player ever. 

[BitterJim]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Wow, it's pretty surprising that height actually works against you in their model

Also, if you look the the active leaders, the cliff between #13 (Pau Gasol) and #14 (Kevin Love) is huge

the model is based on looking at the attributes of the players that make the HOF and then figuring out why they got in and then applying that to everyone else.

And the cliff between Pau and Love should be huge.  Pau is basically a guaranteed entrant, while Love is not and has work to do (though he likely gets in if he can stay relatively healthy and produce similarly over the next few seasons).

I'm more surprised by the size of the gap (there's 13 guys with 93% or greater, then a 26% drop to Love at 67%). I was expecting a more gradual decline, but it basically goes from "nearly a lock" to "more likely than not, but far from a lock"

And #15 (Anthony Davis) is another pretty big drop down to 53%, so there is only one player between "virtual lock" and "50/50 chance". [Dang].

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Wow, it's pretty surprising that height actually works against you in their model

Also, if you look the the active leaders, the cliff between #13 (Pau Gasol) and #14 (Kevin Love) is huge

the model is based on looking at the attributes of the players that make the HOF and then figuring out why they got in and then applying that to everyone else.

And the cliff between Pau and Love should be huge.  Pau is basically a guaranteed entrant, while Love is not and has work to do (though he likely gets in if he can stay relatively healthy and produce similarly over the next few seasons).

I'm more surprised by the size of the gap (there's 13 guys with 93% or greater, then a 26% drop to Love at 67%). I was expecting a more gradual decline, but it basically goes from "nearly a lock" to "more likely than not, but far from a lock"

And #15 (Anthony Davis) is another pretty big drop down to 53%, so there is only one player between "virtual lock" and "50/50 chance". [Dang].

Not all that surprising really.  I mean Davis is 25.  You have the 13 "old" men (Harden and Westbrook at 29 are the only ones not in their 30's), then you have the young guys rising up the ranks (Davis, Irving) or the guys like Love, Griffin, Rondo, J. Johnson, Aldridge, etc. that have had good, but not great careers to this point (where a big season could certainly jump them up the list - though guys like Rondo and Johnson are probably too old to advance much).

This isn't some sort of gradual rating scale, it is usually pretty easy to tell who is going to be a HOFer and who isn't.  In other words, there aren't that many close cases which is where the numbers in the 50's, 60's, and 70's come from.  For example, there are more players at 1.0000 (26), then from .5000 to .7999 (25), which makes sense when you think about it.

[Roy H.]

Given how the HOF seems to more of a "Hall of Very Good" anyways, it wouldn't shock me if Horford is already knocking on the door.

Win a title or two as a key player and he's almost certainly in.

That’s my thought as well.  If Mo Cheeks is in, a lot of really good but not quite great guys should make it.  Horford certainly surpasses that standard.

[bdm860]

Given how the HOF seems to more of a "Hall of Very Good" anyways, it wouldn't shock me if Horford is already knocking on the door.

Win a title or two as a key player and he's almost certainly in.

That’s my thought as well.  If Mo Cheeks is in, a lot of really good but not quite great guys should make it.  Horford certainly surpasses that standard.

See I disagree, for every good-but-not-great guy who makes the HOF, I feel like there's 5+ who don't.  For every Mo Cheeks (4x All-Star, 5x All-D, 1x Champ), you have a Sidney Moncrief (5x All-Star, 5x All-NBA, 5x All-D, 2x DPOY), or Paul Westphal (5x All-Star, 4x All-NBA, 1x Champ), or Tim Hardaway (5x All-Star, 5x All-NBA), or a Michael Cooper (8x All-D, 1 DPOY, 5x Champ).

Just comparing Horford to some other PF/C not in the Hall, I don't think it looks good.  And if he does get in, it's probably going to be many, many years down the road.

Horford:
5x All-Star
1x All-NBA (3rd)
1x All-Defense (2nd)
2x NCAA Champ

Shawn Kemp (eligible since '08):
6x All-Star
3x All-NBA (2nd)
1x FIBA Gold

Bill Laimbeer (eligible since '99):
2x NBA Champ
4x All-Star
1x Rebounding Leader

Ben Wallace (eligible since '16?):
1x NBA Champ
4x All-Star
5x All-NBA (3x 2nd, 2x 3rd)
4x DPOY
6x All-Defense (5x 1st, 1x 2nd)
2x Rebounding Leader
1x Blocks Leader

Chris Webber (eligible since '13)
5x All-Star
5x All-NBA (1x 1st, 3x 2nd, 1x 3rd)
1x Rebounding Leader
ROY

Jack Sikma (eligible since '96)
1x NBA Champ
7x All-Star
1x All Defense (2nd)

Bobby Jones (eligible since '91)
1x NBA Champ
5x All-Star (1x ABA, 4x NBA)
1x All-ABA (2nd)
11x All-Defense (NBA: 8x 1st, 1x 2nd. ABA: 2x 1st)
1x SMOY

[greece66]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

I disagree.  HOF honor is given to an individual, but that doesn't mean it is only about individual performance, it is about both.

Why isn't Wilt considered GOAT based on his individuals stats?  Then there's the opposite case:
 For many years, I considered Bill Russell to be GOAT, full-stop, because of the 11 titles.  I have changed my thinking because that thinking excludes individual performance.  You have to consider both individual and team success.  (BTW, if pressed I would go with MJ as GOAT).

Nobody here is saying that titles don't matter. They matter quite a lot. It's just that individual awards matter more. As Moranis pointed out, admission to the HoF is an individual honour, and by this logic individual awards and performance matter more.

As for Chamberlain, I'm surprised you say this. He's part of any HoF GOAT conversation I've seen online, and several NBA players (Pippen, Walt Frazier) consider him as the best ever.

Even if you disagree with Pippen on Chamberlain, I don't see how this is a relevant point in discussing inclusion in the HoF. There are lots of HOFers who never won a ring - their names are so well known, it's not worth repeating them.

edit in strikethrough

[Moranis]

Given how the HOF seems to more of a "Hall of Very Good" anyways, it wouldn't shock me if Horford is already knocking on the door.

Win a title or two as a key player and he's almost certainly in.

That’s my thought as well.  If Mo Cheeks is in, a lot of really good but not quite great guys should make it.  Horford certainly surpasses that standard.

As I pointed out though, Cheeks is 5th all time in steals (only Stockton, Kidd, Jordan, and Payton are ahead of him) and 13th all time in assists (including a ton of top 10 finishes in those categories).  He played a very long time and built up the stats that many players just don't have in addition to his all star games, all defense teams, etc.  That is what sets him apart from someone like Sidney Moncrief who is more decorated, but who never had the stats (Moncrief never finished in the top 10 in any season in any of the major stats). 

[moiso]

A player should get a lot of extra consideration based on intangibles even more than titles.  It just so happens that a lot of players with good intangibles win titles.  I’m still not sure if he’s a hall of famer but I’d elect him before I’d elect a Chris Webber type, even though Webber was a far more talented player.

[colincb]

A lock? How about does he have a shot?

Answers: No and Very long shot

[fairweatherfan]

Interesting question is - does he have a better or worse chance than Rondo?

Rondo has

4x All-Star
1x All-NBA (3rd)
4x All-Defense (2x 1st, 2x 2nd)
3x league leader in assists
1x league leader in steals
1x Ring
2x Finals
3x ECFs
0x College Rings

Al has

5x All-Star
1x All-NBA (3rd)
1x All-defense (2nd)
0x league leader in a major stat
0x Ring
0x Finals
3x ECFs
2x College Rings

The big advantage Al has is being regarded as a much better teammate, but this plus Rondo's gaudier counting stats, which Al has never excelled at, means Rajon's probably closer to the front of line, right? And I don't think he's got a great chance either. Just some perspective.