CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: KG Living Legend on August 17, 2017, 01:02:17 AM
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Curious to see if you think the NBA is fair in this scenario.
NBA Fans would be so mad, So outraged, if everything went our we and we selected Bagley JR, and Porter JR, both guys end with Jr, how bout that.
We beat the Cavs, Lose to the Warriors in six then come back with the first two picks in the draft, can you imagine that? Would the league really allow it.
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lol yes the league would.
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I don't see how the league would have a choice...
You can't just strip a team of assets they have already gained. Boston took a gamble trading Pierce and KG to Brooklyn for that pick, and they took another risk giving up Fultz to get the Lakers pick and Tatum. The league allowed both trades to go through...can't really go back on it a year+ down the track.
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For the entertainment of conspiracy theories I voted no. But it probably doesn't matter. After years of getting screwed by the lottery when they finally win the #1 they trade down lol.
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No. No way in hell. Funny, I thought the exact same thing. Combination of dreaming too high, and realizing what would happen if we actually landed that.
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I'm putting this here too. Check out Porter JR here he plays one on one against Steph Curry, Fultz and more and nobody can touch him he almost doesn't miss.
https://youtu.be/upknMS6Z5tE
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If we ever are lucky enough the league should accept it, we've been screwed too much in the past, it's time for us to get a little luck.
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Small ball when Horford is tired.
Porter Jr
Tatum
Hayward
Brown
Thomas
Horford, Ayton, Smart, Crowder, Morris
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They would allow it but we'll probably be the last ones. I'm sure a rule change will happen like Shaq-Penny.
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Let's just hope we get at least 1 top 5 pick.. if we get 2 I will be ecstatic... but this year the most important is to get to the finals... last year I checked the mock drafts too much this year it is all about winning
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I know its almost impossible, but imagine if we win the championship and land the first 2 picks. ;D
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I'm putting this here too. Check out Porter JR here he plays one on one against Steph Curry, Fultz and more and nobody can touch him he almost doesn't miss.
https://youtu.be/upknMS6Z5tE
After a while those other kids just had looks on their faces like rams being taken to slaughter. Looks like only one kid got a shot up against him. Where is he going to college?
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I think it would never happen luck wise but the league would allow it if it did by some miracle.
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They would, but the probability is extremely low so it won't happen. And when it doesn't happen, there will be a (small) group of people that claim that we didn't get the #1 and #2 picks solely because the league conspired against us
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I don't see how the league would have a choice...
You can't just strip a team of assets they have already gained. Boston took a gamble trading Pierce and KG to Brooklyn for that pick, and they took another risk giving up Fultz to get the Lakers pick and Tatum. The league allowed both trades to go through...can't really go back on it a year+ down the track.
THIS. Here we have yet another 'summer doldrums' thread about a ridiculous scenario.
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Oh for the love of god, how detached from reality does someone have to be to think the league has that type of power AND is that shady...
I mean the actual lottery is done with ALL the lottery teams in the actual room as the balls bounce around and come out. Are you seriously telling me some of you guys think the league controls which balls come up through the machine every year like magic or something?
Good lord...
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Oh for the love of god, how detached from reality does someone have to be to think the league has that type of power AND is that shady...
I mean the actual lottery is done with ALL the lottery teams in the actual room as the balls bounce around and come out. Are you seriously telling me some of you guys think the league controls which balls come up through the machine every year like magic or something?
Good lord...
I took the OP to mean that is there a possibility that the league would intervene post-drawing to prevent the C's from having the top 2 picks, not beforehand. that's a whole other conspiracy theory
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The league is being run by Silver, not Stern, and therefore I'm not worried about it. No frozen envelopes anymore.
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The draft lottery is supervised by an outside organization, not the NBA itself.
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They would, but the probability is extremely low so it won't happen. And when it doesn't happen, there will be a (small) group of people that claim that we didn't get the #1 and #2 picks solely because the league conspired against us
The tower of Reynolds Wrap on my head told me that the NBA has already taken steps to prevent this, and not only that, BitterJim facilitated the WHOLE THING from the inside (of his living room).
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They would, but the probability is extremely low so it won't happen. And when it doesn't happen, there will be a (small) group of people that claim that we didn't get the #1 and #2 picks solely because the league conspired against us
The tower of Reynolds Wrap on my head told me that the NBA has already taken steps to prevent this, and not only that, BitterJim facilitated the WHOLE THING from the inside (of his living room).
This is a bold faced lie!
It was from the family room.
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In the lottery this year, the Celtics got the number 1 pick 3 times in a row!! It wasn't until the 4th draw that another team (the Lakers) got the next pick.
Seems to reinforce the notion that the lottery is rigged against the Celtics.
Guys would go to jail if it were ever shown the lottery was rigged.
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Curious to see if you think the NBA is fair in this scenario.
NBA Fans would be so mad, So outraged, if everything went our we and we selected Bagley JR, and Porter JR, both guys end with Jr, how bout that.
We beat the Cavs, Lose to the Warriors in six then come back with the first two picks in the draft, can you imagine that? Would the league really allow it.
Doubtful.
I think the best they would allow would be the 1st overall and the 3rd. Which is fine with me. Draft Bagley and Doncic...
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Curious to see if you think the NBA is fair in this scenario.
NBA Fans would be so mad, So outraged, if everything went our we and we selected Bagley JR, and Porter JR, both guys end with Jr, how bout that.
We beat the Cavs, Lose to the Warriors in six then come back with the first two picks in the draft, can you imagine that? Would the league really allow it.
Its not rigged bro ;D
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What choice would they have? Do you think they'd invent a rule change?
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They would, but the probability is extremely low so it won't happen. And when it doesn't happen, there will be a (small) group of people that claim that we didn't get the #1 and #2 picks solely because the league conspired against us
You know, though, that if we do get the #1 and #2 pick, there will be a much larger group of people in LA that claim that the league conspired for us.
Mike
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Looking ahead, here is my question about the lottery. During the unveil, will the sixers pick be labeled as sixers or celtics? Would be awfully confusing if the NBA did what they did this year, which is label the sixers pick to the kings.
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Danny would trade them for #3 & #4...and future Picks
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League has no say in where the picks lay and can't make post facto rules to take the picks away. Horrible thread but it is August.
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Curious to see if you think the NBA is fair in this scenario.
NBA Fans would be so mad, So outraged, if everything went our we and we selected Bagley JR, and Porter JR, both guys end with Jr, how bout that.
We beat the Cavs, Lose to the Warriors in six then come back with the first two picks in the draft, can you imagine that? Would the league really allow it.
Doubtful.
I think the best they would allow would be the 1st overall and the 3rd. Which is fine with me. Draft Bagley and Doncic...
Did you even read the thread? On what basis could they take away assets?
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If the lottery is legit, then yeah. If it's, as often rumored, they'll arrange it so we don't.
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If the lottery is legit, then yeah. If it's, as often rumored, they'll arrange it so we don't.
please read the post immediately preceding yours. on what basis would the nba take away assets from the boston celtics?
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I think the lottery is legit now. I trust Adam Silver. Always though David Stern was a snake. I really think the lottery was rigged in the 80's
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I think the lottery is legit now. I trust Adam Silver. Always though David Stern was a snake. I really think the lottery was rigged in the 80's
What is your proof of this?
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Well I think we should frame this by pointing out exactly how unlikely it is that we will end up with the #1 and #2 picks in next years draft:
Even if the regular season plays out perfectly and we end up in a scenario that gives us the greatest likelihood of landing #1 and #2. (i.e. Brooklyn has the worst record, LAL has the second worst). And ignore for a moment that this scenario has its on likelihood of not happening at all. Just pretend it already has for the sake of context.
I've taken general stats in college to get my degree. I'm pretty sure i've done this math correctly. Others might know stats better, so I will lay out how i've done my math:
Going into draft night BKN is 25% chance at #1, LAL has 18.8% chance at #2.
BKN is #1:
25% chance of happening. But if it did it takes their lotto balls out of the equation for #2 or #3. This actually increases the probability of LAL getting #2, given it has already happened. You calculate this by subtracting the probability of BKN getting #2 (21.5%) from 100.
100 - 21.5 = 78.5
Then you divide 100% by 78.5%.
100 / 78.5 = 1.274
And multiply that number (1.274) by LAL's original chance at #2 (18.8%).
18.8 x 1.274 = 23.95%
So that's the good news! Given that BKN gets #1 overall our odds at landing #2 with the LAL pick actually increases under any scenario that both teams are in the lottery. However here is where the math takes a turn for the disheartening. In order to calculate the odds of this happening we have to multiply these two percentages against each other (25% at BKN #1, 23.95% LAL at #2 given that BKN already has gotten the #1).
.25 x .2395 = .06 (6%)
So even in the scenario where it is the most likely we receive #1 and #2 (BKN is dead last, LAL is second to last) we only have a 6% chance actually getting both 1 and 2. Those odds drops quickly in other scenarios. Say BKN is second to last, LAL is third to last, the odds of getting 1 and 2 drops to 4%.
And these are the percentages given that the regular season has worked out very well for our lottery chances. The likelihood of which cannot be calculated. In any scenario, the likelihood of us losing the #1 pick to the 76ers due to protections will be higher than the likelihood of us landing both #1 and #2
For all these reasons, i think it would be unfair to the NBA to claim that we were not allowed to receive #1 or #2.
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I'd hope so.
Getting KG and Ray to join Paul Pierce ended TWENTY TWO years of frustration for this team....Bias....Reggie Lewis....
Even with KG, our fateful visit to Utah in 2009 robbed him (and US) of a legitimate shot of back-back titles.
I really believe we're in our REDEMPTION period. We DESERVE this. This is BOSTON's time.
No team other than perhaps Portland has had this amount of misfortune to befall a franchise.
If we get those top two picks then the suffering that Larry, Chief and McHale went through in the late 80s, early 90s AND the suffering that PP34 went through will finally make it even.
Tatum, Jaylen, Horford, IT4 and Hayward are awesome as well as the rest of this team. But let's stockpile some more elite YOUNG talent via the upcoming draft.
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You could have just labeled you poll question 'Is the NBA a criminal enterprise?'
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Well I think we should frame this by pointing out exactly how unlikely it is that we will end up with the #1 and #2 picks in next years draft:
.25 x .2395 = .06 (6%)
And these are the percentages given that the regular season has worked out very well for our lottery chances. The likelihood of which cannot be calculated. In any scenario, the likelihood of us losing the #1 pick to the 76ers due to protections will be higher than the likelihood of us landing both #1 and #2
TP.
For all these reasons, i think it would be unfair to the NBA to claim that we were not allowed to receive #1 or #2.
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Well I think we should frame this by pointing out exactly how unlikely it is that we will end up with the #1 and #2 picks in next years draft:
Even if the regular season plays out perfectly and we end up in a scenario that gives us the greatest likelihood of landing #1 and #2. (i.e. Brooklyn has the worst record, LAL has the second worst). And ignore for a moment that this scenario has its on likelihood of not happening at all. Just pretend it already has for the sake of context.
I've taken general stats in college to get my degree. I'm pretty sure i've done this math correctly. Others might know stats better, so I will lay out how i've done my math:
Going into draft night BKN is 25% chance at #1, LAL has 18.8% chance at #2.
BKN is #1:
25% chance of happening. But if it did it takes their lotto balls out of the equation for #2 or #3. This actually increases the probability of LAL getting #2, given it has already happened. You calculate this by subtracting the probability of BKN getting #2 (21.5%) from 100.
100 - 21.5 = 78.5
Then you divide 100% by 78.5%.
100 / 78.5 = 1.274
And multiply that number (1.274) by LAL's original chance at #2 (18.8%).
18.8 x 1.274 = 23.95%
So that's the good news! Given that BKN gets #1 overall our odds at landing #2 with the LAL pick actually increases under any scenario that both teams are in the lottery. However here is where the math takes a turn for the disheartening. In order to calculate the odds of this happening we have to multiply these two percentages against each other (25% at BKN #1, 23.95% LAL at #2 given that BKN already has gotten the #1).
.25 x .2395 = .06 (6%)
So even in the scenario where it is the most likely we receive #1 and #2 (BKN is dead last, LAL is second to last) we only have a 6% chance actually getting both 1 and 2. Those odds drops quickly in other scenarios. Say BKN is second to last, LAL is third to last, the odds of getting 1 and 2 drops to 4%.
And these are the percentages given that the regular season has worked out very well for our lottery chances. The likelihood of which cannot be calculated. In any scenario, the likelihood of us losing the #1 pick to the 76ers due to protections will be higher than the likelihood of us landing both #1 and #2
For all these reasons, i think it would be unfair to the NBA to claim that we were not allowed to receive #1 or #2.
Your math is a little off but you got the answer.
Brooklyn wins with 25% chance. That removes 250 balls out of 1000 leaving 750 balls. With LAL having 188 balls you divide 188 by 750 balls left and get slightly over 25%(25.066). You then multiply the two chances to get a 6.266% of landing the top 2 and that is with Brooklyn being the worst team and LA being the 2nd worst, in other words, best case scenario. So 6% is the highest you could expect. If the teams land elsewhere the chances drop to much lower.
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Cleveland will somehow end up with the #1 pick. You know, to make LeBron happy.
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The fact 13 of you guys voted "no" like there is some tinfoil conspiracy in the NBA where they could manipulate the lottery or just take draft picks from us, makes me question what is in the water you drunk while growing up...
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I have serious doubts they'll let us be that much better off than the Lakers, 76ers, Bulls, and Knicks. I'll believe it when I see it
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It should be noted the Celtics still have not ever moved up in the lottery. Not one time. The best we have ever done is gotten the pick we were supposed to get
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I suppose Ainge would welcome it, but that's $12M for a couple of top picks--which means roster changes.
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I suppose Ainge would welcome it, but that's $12M for a couple of top picks--which means roster changes.
#3 picks for the rest of eternity? I could go for that.
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The fact 13 of you guys voted "no" like there is some tinfoil conspiracy in the NBA where they could manipulate the lottery or just take draft picks from us, makes me question what is in the water you drunk while growing up...
Tinfoil conspiracy seems to be the American way right now. Discussion of the NBA is no different.
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#1 pick Marvin Bagley
#2 pick Mohamad Bamba
Future roster
PG Marcus Smart
SG Jaylen Brown
SF Jayson Tatum
PF Marvin Bagley
C Mohamad Bamba
Can that team win championships ???
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#1 pick Marvin Bagley
#2 pick Mohamad Bamba
Future roster
PG Marcus Smart
SG Jaylen Brown
SF Jayson Tatum
PF Marvin Bagley
C Mohamad Bamba
Can that team win championships ???
Yeah it might, but who knows? Just for fun, compare/contrast that starting five with:
Markelle Fultz
Dario Saric
Ben Simmons
Jahlil Okafor
Joel Embiid
It's a rhetorical question to make the point that the draft is a crap-shoot.
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#1 pick Marvin Bagley
#2 pick Mohamad Bamba
Future roster
PG Marcus Smart
SG Jaylen Brown
SF Jayson Tatum
PF Marvin Bagley
C Mohamad Bamba
Can that team win championships ???
Really doubt Marcus Smart can run the point on a championship team, unless he does indeed morph into a Chauncey Billups type player.