Here are the last 9 #1 picks. Fultz better be more KAT than Bennett if we take him.
2008 Chicago Bulls Derrick Rose^ USA Guard Memphis 16.8 3.9 6.3 [93]
2009 Los Angeles Clippers Blake Griffin^[y] USA Forward Oklahoma 22.5 12.1 3.8 [95]
2010 Washington Wizards John Wall^ USA Guard Kentucky 16.4 4.6 8.3 [96]
2011 Cleveland Cavaliers Kyrie Irving^ USA[z] Guard Duke 18.5 3.7 5.4 [99]
2012 New Orleans Hornets Anthony Davis^ USA Forward/Center Kentucky 13.5 8.2 1.0 [100]
2013 Cleveland Cavaliers Anthony Bennett CAN Forward UNLV 4.2 3.0 0.3 [101]
2014 Cleveland Cavaliers Andrew Wiggins CAN Forward/Guard Kansas 16.9 4.6 2.1 [102]
2015 Minnesota Timberwolves Karl-Anthony Towns USA[aa] Center Kentucky 18.3 10.4 2.0 [103]
2016 Philadelphia 76ers Ben Simmons AUS[ab] Forward LSU — — — [104]
2017 Boston Celtics TBA — — —
All those numbers those #1 picks put up were done on crap teams. Fultz will be on an ECF team. None of those players had the best defensive guard in the league who could put up 16/6/2 and an MVP, All-Star, All NBA guard who could give you 29/2/6 playing in front of them. My guess is Fultz's numbers will be much lower than the players on this list.
Simmons and Griffin did not play their rookie years. They are irrelevant. Towns, Davis and Bennet are bigs, cross them out.
I think Wiggins is a wing, while Fultz is a gaurd, so I will also cross him off the list.
This leaves Rose, Wall and Irving. All three are comparable level prospects to Fultz. Irving and wall went to garbage teams. Rule them out.
Derrick Rose is the only guy you can draw anything from. The team was coming off a 33 win season and went on to win 41 games and make the playoffs. In the playoffs, Derrick Rose averaged 20/6/6 in 45 minutes a game.
Still you cant really draw anything from this. How many elite prospects have gone to playoff ready teams?
3 years ago, Marcus Smart started over Isaiah Thomas for the 40 win Celtics.
In 2010 James Harden played 23 minutes a game logging 0 starts for the 50 win Thunder
In 2012 Evan Turner played 23 minutes a game logging 14 starts for the 41 win 76ers
In 2006 Deron Williams played 29 minutes a game logging 47 starts for the 41 win Jazz
In 2005 Devin Harris played like 10 minutes a game with 19 starts for the 54 win Mavs
In 2005 Ben Gordon played 24 mninutes a game with just 3 starts for the 47 win Bulls. He started 1 playoff game.
In 2004 Wade started 56/61 games for the 42 win Miami Heat.
Problem here is that Fultz is a much better prospect than Smart Harden and Harris, and the Celtics are much better team than the others.
There is virtually no precedent for a elite prospect to go to a 50+ win team save Magic Johnson.