Author Topic: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It  (Read 3903 times)

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The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« on: January 15, 2019, 04:34:05 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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So I brought all of this up in my recent podcast, but I know nobody actually listens to that, so I'm covering it here as well.

If you check any Celtic-related forum after a loss, you'll see it flooded with frustrated fans demanding that we trade some under-performing player not meeting expectations.  Right now, you can't go a couple minutes without someone saying we should dump Rozier for a 2nd rounder.  Earlier this season, people were ready to attach picks just to dump Gordon Hayward.  Fans were ready to give up on Jaylen Brown for pennies on the dollar.   

A perfect example of how most fans react to selling high vs selling low.  Prior to the draft, Kevin O'Connor goes on Bill Simmons' podcast and brings up the idea of trading Jaylen Brown (stock very high after a incredible playoff) for a high pick that can be used on Luka Doncic.  Bill reacts to the idea by saying he'd fight Kevin and the entire Ringer staff if something like that happened.  The idea of moving future star Jaylen Brown was that skin-crawling for him.   Flash forward a couple months and that very same Bill Simmons (now the world's biggest Doncic fan who lists Luka #5 in his trade value column and Brown #44) says he'd like to see Boston trade Jaylen Brown to the Hawks for a Dallas pick projected #17 at the time.   

That perfectly sums it up.  Fans will react with outright hostility at the thought of trading a player when their stock is high.  But when their stock is down?... dump him for a late 1st in a bad draft. 

The thing is, Danny Ainge is an emotionless robot.  He has a long track record of selling high.  It's easy to remember these trades, because they are probably the ones that caused forums like this to go into full-on meltdown.  Whether it's trading Isaiah Thomas after an MVP-level season, trading Avery Bradley when he looks like a borderline star, trading a #1 pick when everyone believes it's a future superstar... even lesser remembered ones like trading Ricky Davis in the midst of his career season (19.7 points on 46% shooting). Ainge don't give a crap.  He sees the big picture.  No better time to trade a player than when they are going well.

So that brings me to this current squad.  Across the board, almost everyone is failing to live up to lofty expectations.  Naturally, you want to dump the guys who are struggling.  But in the midst of all this turmoil, there's actually two guys who are wildly exceeding everyone's projections... Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris Sr.

Naturally, you're going to probably get p---ed off at me even bringing up their names.  It's a fair thing to consider, though. 

Marcus Morris:  A career 11.5ppg 43%/35%/74% shooter is currently averaging 15 points with 50%/45%/87% shooting.  It's the epitome of a career year.  Prior to this season, many articles were written about salary dumping him to get under the luxury tax line.  He makes 5.3 mil on an expiring contract and we need to shed roughly 3 million in salary to get under the luxury line - and avoid the repeater tax down the line when we try to re-sign guys like Brown.   Flash forward a couple months - he's untouchable, right?

Marcus Smart:  A career 35%/28% shooter is now shooting a borderline respectable 40% from the field and 35.4% from three.   This month, he's shooting 49% from the field and 48% from three.  Insane.  But beyond that, he's widely seen by fans as being the heart-and-soul of the team... arguably the "leader".  A crucial player that couldn't possibly be moved.  Folks go as far as to say that removing him would send the team into a meltdown.  Despite signing a new contract, Smart is not only having a career season, but most fans see him as untouchable.  He's eligible to be traded as of today's Jan 15th restriction lifting.

Quick thoughts on salary:  Prior to the season, there were some who felt Smart's contract was a bit steep for a player they expected to struggle to get minutes off the bench alongside Rozier.  I found the amount (11.6 mil this season) a bit curious, because combined with "expendable" Marcus Morris's 5.3 expiring (17 mil total), you could take back as much as 21 mil (17 * 125%) - that positioned us perfectly to potentially take back Jimmy Butler had he been available in mid-January. Not that it was something we were counting on, but I suspected it was an option Boston wanted to keep open.  Butler and Kyrie being friends could give you some confidence in keeping Butler.  Possibly a move to placate Kyrie into signing long-term.  Obviously Butler is no longer on the table - and I dont' think any fans are losing sleep over missing out on him - but the fact remains you can combine those two and take back as much as 21 mil.  Add a player like Rozier or Yabu, and you're looking at the possibility of taking back as much as 25 mil.

Quick thoughts on trade value: Hard to say.  Individually, I would expect either to fetch a 1st rounder.  I know Morris is an expiring contract, but because his bird rights carry over, I don't think it's unreasonable that you could get a late 1st given his level of play.  Selling high on them would more likely be a bigger-picture trade... such as a move to avoid luxury tax, a move to consolidate some of our roster issues, or a combined deal to bring in a upgrade impact player.



Types of Trades to Consider:   

  • Luxury Tax Avoidance: Just like we discussed prior to the season, we could try to shed around 3 mil in salary to get under the luxury tax.  If you could get a late 1st for Morris, is it something worth considering?  Do we expect to sign him long-term?  Similarly, if you could combine Smart + Morris to take back some combo of talent/draft picks making in the range of 13.5-14 mil, is it worth considering big picture?  As a random example, in the podcast I brought up the awful idea of Philly (a team desperate for depth) calling up to offer the expiring contracts of Wilson Chandler + Amir Johnson + Miami's unprotected 2021 1st + a future unprotected Philly 1st for Smart + Morris.  Obviously, I don't expect anyone to like this idea.  It's "emotionless" and "big picture" on a level that even I can't stomach.  But it checks the box of selling high, avoiding the luxury tax, and bringing in future assets to be used down the line to try to acquire a guy like Davis.   Alt things to consider - trading to a team on the verge of making the playoffs like Brooklyn to take back expirings + picks. 
  • Shake-Ups  Their stock is at a peak right now.  Is there a shake-up trade you'd consider making?  Could you get an intriguing big man prospect for one of them that makes better roster sense? 
  • Upgrades:  I brought up two ideas in the podcast.  One, was meeting the asking price for Bradley Beal (a player, young player and a couple picks).  Morris + Smart + picks for Beal seems to meet that price.  The other idea I brought up (prior to Marc Stein's recent tweets suggesting his availability) was the idea that you could move Smart + Morris + yabu to Memphis for Marc Gasol.  Gasol is signed on for this season with a player option for next.  Such a move seems plausible, but would obviously be a huge change.



Thoughts on them being untouchable: Look, I don't think we'll do anything.  I just think it's something to keep in mind.  It's always best to trade a player when their stock is high - and we got two guys with sky high stock right now.  I know we are better off with these guys on the Celtics.  That said, learning from experience, the idea that removing a guy like Smart will completely destroy the team - probably isn't true.  The team will adjust.  The simple act of removing Smart + Morris completely changes the dynamic.  Now Brown probably slots back in as a starter.  Hayward probably gets major minutes.  Maybe those guys find chemistry.  Maybe Rozier suddenly starts flourishing leading a less-crowded bench?  Who knows.  Ultimately, keep in mind currently we are playing like a middling mid-seed playoff team and big-picture, our hope is that a "5 Leaf Clover" line-up of Kyrie/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Horford will eventually take shape - I don't think we're really in a position to act like either of these guys is "untouchable".  Also, the fact remains that if we manage to follow-through on our pipe dreams of acquiring Anthony Davis this Summer - the salary of Marcus Smart will almost certainly be involved in our offers - so get use to the idea of us trading him.

Last Thoughts:  Right now, I expect the idea of trading Smart and/or Morris while their stock is high - to be met with significant hostility.  But consider this...   Imagine the possibility that a couple months from now Smart is back on the bench getting 20 minutes behind Jaylen Brown and his shooting has tanked back to typical Marcus Smart levels... meanwhile, law of averages has caught up to Marcus Morris and he's been bricking shots for weeks in a reserve role behind Gordon Hayward.  At that point, would you regret not selling high when you had a chance?... kind like how Bill Simmons reacts to Jaylen Brown these days?   

Curious to hear your thoughts.

TL:DR:  Fans hate the idea of selling high, but I think it's worth taking a look at.  We have some guys having career years who might not figure into our long-term plans.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 04:55:26 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2019, 05:54:46 PM »

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Yeah, I'd be very happy to trade Marcus Morris.

I do not see him as a long term part of this team. Not wild about his game offensively. I don't want to give him a big contract next summer so I only see him as a 6 month guy.

Morris takes a lot of shots while our young guys are struggling to be as involved as they should. I think removing him from the picture could create a situation where better balance can be found for others. Replace him with a more low usage guy.

Reluctant to part with Smart. I do see him as a long term guy and I think Ainge would struggle to get good value for him.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2019, 06:03:29 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I wouldnt' mind selling high on Morris, though I'm a bit skeptical that he would provide a super high return. 

Are you gonna get a 1st round pick for half a season of Morris?

Is a late 1st rounder worth it to trade away the guy who has been top 3 on the team this year in terms of consistency and offensive production?  I mean, you're basically signalling that you don't see the team competing for anything meaningful this season.


As for Smart, I could see the right team being willing to pay a bit more value for him, given what he's shown during his time on the Celtics.


But again, seeing as Smart is apparently the emotional leader on the team -- and the longest-tenured Celtic -- is it really worth it?

To me, Smart is everything that's currently right about the Celtics.  We want the team to take on more of his personality and approach, not ship him out.

With Smart I don't really think you have the same phenomenon of "trade this guy while his shooting is hot, he won't be worth nearly so much later."

Smart is what he is.  Yeah, he's been on a bit of a hot streak from three lately and his percentages are up.  Before the end of the season I'm sure his 3P% will be back down near 28-30%.

I don't care -- that's who he's been in the past and he's been really important in pretty much all of the Celts' most impressive victories over the last few years.

It's not like he's gonna decline due to age anytime soon or something like that.
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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2019, 06:04:58 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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You make a great point! For myself, I'm regretting that I didn't support the idea of trading Rozier last summer (not that we have influence  ;D).

From what we've seen so far this season it seems unlikely that the Celtics will be in the NBA Finals, therefore losing Morris isn't that big of a deal. And the minutes and shots that come available could be benificial to Brown and Hayward. Although trading your arguably second best player this year might send the wrong message to Irving.

However, is there even a possibility of trading Morris for a pick and get under the luxury tax?

I think the Celtics would need to take back salary, unless they trade him to Sacramento (not a good idea for our pick).

Smart is playing great, but is also just 24. It's not unlikely that his improvement is a natural growth of him as a NBA-player. I really don't want to lose Smart, because I see him as the Celtics' leader. His impact goes further than his production on the court.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2019, 06:47:06 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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Couldn't care less if we traded Morris to be honest. He's a ball stopper. Most of the times he only cares for his own shot.

I'd hate to see Smart get traded though. Him and Horford are my favorite current Celtics.

Another guy who is playing well right now is Kyrie. Problem is, he is about to hit free agency. Chances are that most teams wouldn't feel confident about re-signing him next summer, hence we'd have to find a team willing to take that risk.

If the Sixers were willing to trade us Simmons + Redick + Zhaire Smith for Kyrie + Theis + Bird, I would definitely consider that deal. But then again, I'm really high on Simmons.

TP LarBrd33! It was an interesting read! :)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 09:44:58 PM by Jvalin »

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2019, 07:14:08 PM »

Offline lantinm

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Nice post, LarBrd33.  I think Morris needs to go, as does Rozier, and then I think you'll see this team kick it into gear.  Morris IS a ball-stopper and although he's having a career year and provides toughness, I'd part with him and his selfish offensive game.  Insert Jaylen back into the starting lineup, as his slashing game (and getting to the line) is what this offense needs right now.  I really feel that Wanamaker can fill-in adequately for Rozier and that we won't miss a beat.  In fact, I think you'll see even more ball-movement on the 2nd unit with Terry gone. 

So, the next question is:  What can we get for both Morris and Rozier?  Personally, I'd send both to Orlando for Vucevic.  I'd even throw in our 1st-rounder and either Yabu or Semi to make it work. 

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2019, 07:23:16 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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Nice post, LarBrd33.  I think Morris needs to go, as does Rozier, and then I think you'll see this team kick it into gear.  Morris IS a ball-stopper and although he's having a career year and provides toughness, I'd part with him and his selfish offensive game.  Insert Jaylen back into the starting lineup, as his slashing game (and getting to the line) is what this offense needs right now.  I really feel that Wanamaker can fill-in adequately for Rozier and that we won't miss a beat.  In fact, I think you'll see even more ball-movement on the 2nd unit with Terry gone. 

So, the next question is:  What can we get for both Morris and Rozier?  Personally, I'd send both to Orlando for Vucevic.  I'd even throw in our 1st-rounder and either Yabu or Semi to make it work.
What happens with Vuc in the off-season? Do we pay him north of 20 million a year or do we let him walk? Cause if we pay him, the luxury tax is gonna explode through the roof (assuming Kyrie re-signs and Horford opts in).

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2019, 07:43:57 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I’m completely on board with this philosophy, I’d trade Morris and wanted to trade Rozier this summer, but I don’t think we’d get fair value for Smart in terms of what he brings and our needs.
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Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2019, 07:57:54 PM »

Offline NKY fan

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I’m completely on board with this philosophy, I’d trade Morris and wanted to trade Rozier this summer, but I don’t think we’d get fair value for Smart in terms of what he brings and our needs.

I think houston and Darill morrey would give us a good price for smart plus Morris .. they were offerring 4 first round picks for butler. They need depth and both smart and Morris fit their system and with harden in general. 2 unprotected picks 4-5 years down the line can be viewed as a good value by Danny .. we drop bellow the luxury tax and can use the contract of most likely knight to trade for Davis next summer ...

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2019, 08:01:32 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Yes I agree
Shop Smart and Morris!

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2019, 08:52:06 PM »

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I'm all for opening things up by prematurely ditching those who won't be around next year. Morris and Theis, and Rozier.

Agree that Morris is a ball stopper. He would be a chucker if he wasn't on a contract year hot streak.

I was high on Rozier, but his head just isn't here and won't be this season. Good player. Not the right person.

I was also high on Theis preinjury. He lost his quicks and hops.  Sucks.

Smart, though, is a critical piece locked in for 3 more seasons. If he should be traded, it should be for a marquee player.

But to the point... selling high... requires both a buyer who is pretty flush, and a replacement.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2019, 10:00:53 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm all for opening things up by prematurely ditching those who won't be around next year. Morris and Theis, and Rozier.

Agree that Morris is a ball stopper. He would be a chucker if he wasn't on a contract year hot streak.

I was high on Rozier, but his head just isn't here and won't be this season. Good player. Not the right person.

I was also high on Theis preinjury. He lost his quicks and hops.  Sucks.

Smart, though, is a critical piece locked in for 3 more seasons. If he should be traded, it should be for a marquee player.

But to the point... selling high... requires both a buyer who is pretty flush, and a replacement.
I get that people see Smart as a critical piece.  This is something I sort of covered in my podcast.  Several years ago that I advocated trading Rondo for an elite shooter. It was met with major hostility, because of how essential Rondo was to our offense. It ran through Rondo, of course. But I had in mind that if you replaced Rondo with an elite shooter, you'd be able to have the ball run through Pierce and the new guy combined with Ray would be lethal at spreading the floor (essentially pace and space before we had a name for it). It would have COMPLETELY changed the dynamic of the team, but it wouldn't have necessarily made our offense worse.

I feel similarly about trading Smart. He's a huge intangibles guy. Crucial to our defense. But I mean, if you move him in a big picture trade that gets Jaylen consistent minutes and he starts getting comfortable - does it become a win? If you move Smart in a package to bring in a high impact player like Beal or Gasol, it completely changes the dynamic of the team - but do the plusses end up outweighing the minuses?

Just think it's worth considering. As of today, Smart is available to be traded. It opens up our possibilities. Not saying we should do anything, but we have options.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2019, 11:33:27 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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So first of all great post. The only real nitpick I have is with your Jaylen Brown example. I don't think refusing to trade Jaylen Brown for Luka Doncic is the ideal example of refusing or failing to sell high. For one that time periods likely does not represent the peak of his value since 21 years olds who are as good as he was get better a majority of the time. The guy was on a Paul George (Simmons comparison), Kawhi Leonard (Zach Lowe wrote and article about it) type development curve. And after a truly terrible start to the year he has more or less put up his playoff numbers (per 36) for the last two months, so that loss of value Simmons was worried about has been largely repaired (not completely yet). And although you obviously due that deal now, we weren't trading Summer 2018 Jaylen for Winter 2018 Doncic, we were trading him for Summer 2018 Doncic who was a big unknown.

That aside, I get your larger point, which is that we are reluctant to trade a guy overperforming expectations for the simple reason that those guys are helping the team right now, but maybe we should because we can improve the teams situation in the future. I think the first step is to identify guys who are sell high candidates. By definiton, that would be players whose current likely exceeds their future value due to their current level of play being better than you woud expect moving forward. By that definition I think Morris makes more sense than Smart.


First of, I am less convinced that Morris' level of play is sustainable. Smart is young enough that a jump in play due to natural improvement seems more likely (24 year olds do improve) than for a 29 year old like Morris.  In addition, the relative level of his shooting at 35% seems more sustaible than Morris' which at 45% is clearly gonna drop.  Lastly on his contract even if Smart drops some from where he is now he is still a decent value, whereas Morris is gonna get overpaid on his next contract. Finally the relative impact of trading ecah is different. Smart is the heart and soul of the team, plays a position (PG) that the celtics have less depth at than Morris at the wing, and his contract it useful in salary matching foor a potential AD trade. Finally, Morris is taking shots from young guys like Brown and Tatum who are our future so their is some value added in removing him.

All things considered I would trade morris for a ate first for all the reasons above (but mostly the increase in chances for Brown and tatum), and becuase it never hurts to be able to throw another first at NOP for AD.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2019, 06:45:43 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Yes I agree
Shop Smart and Morris!

I wouldn't trade them for the sake of trading them, but definitely agree we should be open to the idea of moving them.

Re: The Concept of Trading High and Why Fans Obviously Hate It
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2019, 09:06:40 AM »

Offline mef730

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The thing is, Danny Ainge is an emotionless robot.

Bingo. That's all you needed to write. He's Bill Belichick.

I think I'm like a lot of people here. If we could get value for Morris, I'd trade him. Even with his Bird rights, though, I think it's hard to get a lot for him. He's going to cost a lot next year.

I'd have a much harder time trading Smart, though. First, I think he fits this team in a unique way. He'd have a hard time filling his role somewhere else, and I don't think other teams would value him as highly. Second, forget for a minute what he's worth elsewhere; he's the heart and soul of this team. He's the one guy that defines "intangibles" for us.

And finally, when we drafted him, I bought each of my kids Marcus Smart shirts, and I'll be [dang]ed if I'm getting them new ones. Those things are expensive.

Mike