Author Topic: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team  (Read 1532 times)

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Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« on: January 15, 2019, 02:16:59 PM »

Offline bcgenuis

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I think Brad is very good coaching a team with low expectations.

We have not yet seen him coach a team with the same level of success, when there are high expectations. Perhaps all this losing is good - the expectations will be lower and then Brad can work his magic.



Is this roster (too many alphas - not enough role players) Danny's fault?

Yes and no.

I do not think many thought that Tatum would progress this quickly- but does not know yet how to take over and will a team to victory.

I think that many believed that Hayward would progress quicker.

Rozier and Brown are having difficulty adjusting to non-starting roles. And even more so, there appears to be missing the attitude of team first and willing sacrifice for the betterment of the team.

My Suggestion

Time to package some picks and 2nd level starters for excellent role players - a sharp shooter and/or a wing defensive specialist; and roll over the picks to later years.

Who can go -
Rozier
Yabusele
Brown or Hayward - They are duplicative.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 02:22:27 PM by bcgenuis »

Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2019, 03:08:56 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think you've got it backwards a bit here.

Yes, Brad is a really good coach, which means he's good at getting a team lacking in talent to overperform.

But you give him a roster that is replete with talent, and yet we're not seeing the team exceed expectations.  Why?

I think there are diminishing returns on what a coach can do to make a team play better than the talent on the roster.

A great coach can take a bunch of role players and figure out how to win games they maybe ought to lose.

But if you give a great coach great talent the ceiling of the team is probably still about the same, which is to say high, but very dependent on that elite talent fitting together.

So I think it's wrong to say Brad *needs* an underachieving team.  Rather, I think it's fair to say that a great coach isn't necessarily going to make the same kind of difference with a roster flush with talent.  The expectations are already sky high and there's nowhere to go but down.


That's why I think your instinct to replace a bunch of the current supporting cast with role players who are maybe less talented but whose skills and roles are more defined is on the money.

The Celts have plenty of talent, it's true, but talent doesn't win games on its own.  You need to be able to have that talent all pulling in the same direction.  The more talented players you have on a team, the more diminishing returns you're gonna have when their skills don't necessarily complement, but instead create confusion as to who is best suited to do what.


I think the Celts would be doing better if they just had Kyrie, Tatum, Horford healthy and good to go, Smart and Hayward as glue guys / defenders, and then a bunch of veterans with well defined skills.


Of course, that's not the team.  Well that it isn't, I suppose, because it means the Celts have better depth to withstand injuries and they have assets to make moves.

But right now I think it's fair to say that the team's roster assets are not all optimized for winning right now.  They're simultaneously trying to develop guys like Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc, rehab Hayward, and also build rapport among the core group while fleshing out the supporting cast.

That's a lot to have going on in the midst of what is supposedly a contending season.

Most contending teams have a much clearer sense of who they are and how they're going to win tough games.
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2019, 03:22:37 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I think you've got it backwards a bit here.

Yes, Brad is a really good coach, which means he's good at getting a team lacking in talent to overperform.

But you give him a roster that is replete with talent, and yet we're not seeing the team exceed expectations.  Why?

I think there are diminishing returns on what a coach can do to make a team play better than the talent on the roster.

A great coach can take a bunch of role players and figure out how to win games they maybe ought to lose.

But if you give a great coach great talent the ceiling of the team is probably still about the same, which is to say high, but very dependent on that elite talent fitting together.

So I think it's wrong to say Brad *needs* an underachieving team.  Rather, I think it's fair to say that a great coach isn't necessarily going to make the same kind of difference with a roster flush with talent.  The expectations are already sky high and there's nowhere to go but down.


That's why I think your instinct to replace a bunch of the current supporting cast with role players who are maybe less talented but whose skills and roles are more defined is on the money.

The Celts have plenty of talent, it's true, but talent doesn't win games on its own.  You need to be able to have that talent all pulling in the same direction.  The more talented players you have on a team, the more diminishing returns you're gonna have when their skills don't necessarily complement, but instead create confusion as to who is best suited to do what.


I think the Celts would be doing better if they just had Kyrie, Tatum, Horford healthy and good to go, Smart and Hayward as glue guys / defenders, and then a bunch of veterans with well defined skills.


Of course, that's not the team.  Well that it isn't, I suppose, because it means the Celts have better depth to withstand injuries and they have assets to make moves.

But right now I think it's fair to say that the team's roster assets are not all optimized for winning right now.  They're simultaneously trying to develop guys like Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc, rehab Hayward, and also build rapport among the core group while fleshing out the supporting cast.

That's a lot to have going on in the midst of what is supposedly a contending season.

Most contending teams have a much clearer sense of who they are and how they're going to win tough games.

I agree with your theory about diminishing returns with a great team, but an issue is Stevens has his high 3 point shooting / low FT, modern bigs / lack of emphasis on rim protection system, and it seems like it's best suited for less talented players.

When you have studs, or even in general, you need to be tailoring the system to the players you have.  That's why Pop has changed his offense so many times.  It used to be thru Duncan in the post, then with Parker's drives and movement, then Kawhi and a ball movement system and later a Kawhi-focused system (both with lots of 3 point shooting), and now they changed it again with LMA and DeRozan.

I haven't seen Stevens change what he's doing once really.  The better players you have, the less you should just be chucking up 3's.  They can do more.  Winning on 3's is how Butler gets upsets in March Madness vs the Dukes of the world.  But the thing is, Stevens isn't coaching Butler anymore.  He's coaching Duke, and I'm not sure he's figured that out yet.  I hope he does soon.
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2019, 03:50:12 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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So send Brad back down to coaching college ball?

Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2019, 04:49:31 PM »

Offline wiley

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disagree.  Just because Butler didn't have tons of talent and the Celtics have yet to make the finals doesn't mean
such a thing can be assumed.  Waaaaaayyy too small a sample size to be making these proclamations.
No doubt Brad wins last year's title with the Warrior's lineup.

Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2019, 05:13:55 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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disagree.  Just because Butler didn't have tons of talent and the Celtics have yet to make the finals doesn't mean
such a thing can be assumed.  Waaaaaayyy too small a sample size to be making these proclamations.
No doubt Brad wins last year's title with the Warrior's lineup.

Well I admit I'm speculating, but I think there is reasonable doubt here.  It goes well beyond the 2 simple points you listed and into coaching philosophy and adaptation abilities, which do not have a small sample size.  And while I wouldn't expect others to, I stand by my ability to speculate.  If you'd like I can list some of my hits over the past 2 years, particularly with against the grain opinions.

I'm not saying my theory about Stevens is right, but in my opinion it's legitimate, and it will be the team's playoff performance over time that will ultimately dissuade me.  The good news is, I expect him to improve whether OP ultimately proves to be right or not.
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2019, 05:30:22 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Welp, he’s coaching an underachieving team now.


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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2019, 05:45:29 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I haven't seen Stevens change what he's doing once really.  The better players you have, the less you should just be chucking up 3's.  They can do more.  Winning on 3's is how Butler gets upsets in March Madness vs the Dukes of the world.  But the thing is, Stevens isn't coaching Butler anymore.  He's coaching Duke, and I'm not sure he's figured that out yet.  I hope he does soon.


The major achilles heel of the team this year on offense, I would say, is the lack of free throws.  They're basically at the bottom of the league in that category.

On defense, there's not much they don't do well, though their defensive rebounding has slipped a bit since Baynes went out.


If Brad's system were the problem as far as the free throws go, you would expect that players that came to the Celts from other teams would see their free throw rate drop noticeably.

Yet I don't see that.

Horford averaged 1.8 and 2.2 free throw attempts per 36 his last two seasons in Atlanta, and has been at 2.2, 1.9 and 1.4 in Boston.

Irving's FTA per 36 actually went up to 4.9 last year after average 4.1 and 4.7 the previous two years in Cleveland.  He is down at 3.8 this year, however.  But again, that's not so far off what he did a few years ago in Cleveland.

Marcus Morris's free throw rate has actually gone up since he came to Boston from Detroit.

Aron Baynes this season has his second highest free throw rate of his career, though last year he had a down year.  He's been up and down in that category his whole career though.


I'd say the biggest disappointment in terms of not getting the line enough is Jayson Tatum, who seems as though he ought to be able to generate a healthy number of free throws.  He's sometimes compared to Paul Pierce, but Paul got to the line a lot.  Tatum really doesn't.

But it's not like Tatum got to the line a ton in college.  He only averaged 4.8 free throws attempts per game in college despite playing 33.3 minutes and functioning as one of his team's top scorers.


So I think you have to look at the roster construction, too.  Are the Celts built to play a different way than they do?

It certainly seems to be the case that the players have the physical ability to get to the line more.  But even when they've played on other teams for other coaches, they haven't really played differently in that regard.


So if anything you could say that Brad isn't expecting players to change who they are under them, instead letting the players be who they are within his system.

It's hard, I think, to argue that Brad's system is causing players to be less aggressive or efficient than they would necessarily be otherwise.



As for the three pointers, yes, Brad does emphasize his team taking a lot of threes. 

But they're also a good shooting team, so that makes sense.  After starting the season badly, the Celts are now top 10 in Effective Field Goal % (before the last few losses they were closer to top 5).


And again, I think if you look at the roster it's hard to make the argument that they could be successful trying to play a grit-n-grind, interior focused style. 

Ainge put together a roster to compete for a title, which in the current era means being able to play on the Warriors' terms.  So there's a lot of guys you would categorize as "wings" and "swings," and not a lot in the way of guys that have made their bread in the NBA getting to the hoop.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2019, 05:54:28 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I haven't seen Stevens change what he's doing once really.  The better players you have, the less you should just be chucking up 3's.  They can do more.  Winning on 3's is how Butler gets upsets in March Madness vs the Dukes of the world.  But the thing is, Stevens isn't coaching Butler anymore.  He's coaching Duke, and I'm not sure he's figured that out yet.  I hope he does soon.


The major achilles heel of the team this year on offense, I would say, is the lack of free throws.  They're basically at the bottom of the league in that category.

On defense, there's not much they don't do well, though their defensive rebounding has slipped a bit since Baynes went out.


If Brad's system were the problem as far as the free throws go, you would expect that players that came to the Celts from other teams would see their free throw rate drop noticeably.

Yet I don't see that.

Horford averaged 1.8 and 2.2 free throw attempts per 36 his last two seasons in Atlanta, and has been at 2.2, 1.9 and 1.4 in Boston.

Irving's FTA per 36 actually went up to 4.9 last year after average 4.1 and 4.7 the previous two years in Cleveland.  He is down at 3.8 this year, however.  But again, that's not so far off what he did a few years ago in Cleveland.

Marcus Morris's free throw rate has actually gone up since he came to Boston from Detroit.

Aron Baynes this season has his second highest free throw rate of his career, though last year he had a down year.  He's been up and down in that category his whole career though.


I'd say the biggest disappointment in terms of not getting the line enough is Jayson Tatum, who seems as though he ought to be able to generate a healthy number of free throws.  He's sometimes compared to Paul Pierce, but Paul got to the line a lot.  Tatum really doesn't.

But it's not like Tatum got to the line a ton in college.  He only averaged 4.8 free throws attempts per game in college despite playing 33.3 minutes and functioning as one of his team's top scorers.


So I think you have to look at the roster construction, too.  Are the Celts built to play a different way than they do?

It certainly seems to be the case that the players have the physical ability to get to the line more.  But even when they've played on other teams for other coaches, they haven't really played differently in that regard.


So if anything you could say that Brad isn't expecting players to change who they are under them, instead letting the players be who they are within his system.

It's hard, I think, to argue that Brad's system is causing players to be less aggressive or efficient than they would necessarily be otherwise.



As for the three pointers, yes, Brad does emphasize his team taking a lot of threes. 

But they're also a good shooting team, so that makes sense.  After starting the season badly, the Celts are now top 10 in Effective Field Goal % (before the last few losses they were closer to top 5).


And again, I think if you look at the roster it's hard to make the argument that they could be successful trying to play a grit-n-grind, interior focused style. 

Ainge put together a roster to compete for a title, which in the current era means being able to play on the Warriors' terms.  So there's a lot of guys you would categorize as "wings" and "swings," and not a lot in the way of guys that have made their bread in the NBA getting to the hoop.

Agreed, but you listed 2 FA's and 2 trade targets.  No drafted players, where you aren't sure who they're gonna be.  What does that tell you?  That when the Celtics seek out players, they either don't consider FT % very important or they don't expect players to change.  But my point is that they've acquired certain players that fit a model, and I'm questioning the model.  I've outlined the model in my prior post and what I find troubling about it.  He's convinced his offensive system will win out vs. the entire NBA with the talent we assemble.  I think the talent is there / on track, but I'm not sure about the system.  And I'm not sure how anyone could be sure, either. 
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2019, 06:05:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I guess I'm saying that it seems like the person whose vision you don't like is Ainge, not so much Brad.
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2019, 06:26:18 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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I guess I'm saying that it seems like the person whose vision you don't like is Ainge, not so much Brad.

Well, I never said I don't like it, I said I have doubt our offensive system maximizes our now superior talent.  There's a significant difference.  And I also said I had no idea if I was right, so I wasn't "going on record," I simply have doubt. 

Even if I didn't like it, I don't think I agree with your statement, because I like the talent DA has assembled (I also think it's a work in progress at this point and that was the plan).  It seems to me like when Stevens got here, DA got a lot better at drafting and I attribute that to 3 things: DA getting better on the job, Stevens joining the braintrust and gaining influence as well as having a clear cut vision for the offense.

The last thing, I attribute to Stevens.  He came here with a system in mind, we hired him to implement that system and improve on the job, and we tailored our personnel to his vision.  That's what I believe occurred, and that DA, CBS, Zarren et al work closely together in making decisions.  I'm fine with the vision and the personnel, but I'm not sure this offense- terrible at generating free throws in a ticky tack foul league, relies on jumpshots with inferior personnel to several contenders, and has players who can take over playoff games stand in the corner doing nothing for minutes at a time- is going to be good enough.  Wouldn't the coach be responsible for these kinds of issues? 

EDIT - To be clear, I don't think the wheel needs to be reinvented.  It's a 3 point league based on defensive versatility, and our team has that in spades even if we aren't winning right now.  I just think we have to find a way to capitalize on the lame fouls the league is calling, because it can be exploited and we have players who can, and we need to make a few other adjustments where I know the outcome I want but I don't have the basketball mind to figure out how to achieve it.  I just know I think the playbook has to adapt a bit, but I don't believe I dispute the vision.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 06:56:25 PM by smokeablount »
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2019, 07:16:44 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I think we will be looking back at this time next year, sitting from the vantage point of 1st or 2nd in the conference, and all be able to agree that the big problem in 2018-19 was inflated expectations, rather than some deep problem with the roster or Stevens.

Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2019, 07:48:36 PM »

Offline KGBirdBias

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I don't think Stevens knows how to take this group of talent to another level. Whatever offense the Warriors run is what this team should be running. Having Brown, Hayward or Tatum stand in the corner and run 3 man weave is HS stuff.

This team should be running scissors, back cuts, slices through the lane, post ups with Tatum at SG.

Stevens need more imagination with the players he has.

Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2019, 07:57:38 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think we will be looking back at this time next year, sitting from the vantage point of 1st or 2nd in the conference, and all be able to agree that the big problem in 2018-19 was inflated expectations, rather than some deep problem with the roster or Stevens.


Do you think that's going to come about as a result of the players simply getting more experience playing together, Hayward getting healthier, Tatum and Brown slowly developing, etc, or do you think there will be some significant roster changes?

I am hopeful that Hayward is going to continue to gradually inch toward his previous level of production and efficiency, and that Tatum and Brown will continue to find themselves.

I don't know that it's certain that those things will happen, or that if they do the Celts will assume the spot at the top of the Conference that we expected them to occupy.


The question I keep coming back to this year:

Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford


Can those guys play together?  Can they be as effective as a unit as we hoped?


If the answer is no, that fundamentally changes the view for how the team must move forward.  Within the next couple of years those guys will be too expensive to keep together if they're not really, really good.
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Re: Brad Stevens - needs a underachieving team
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2019, 08:32:09 PM »

Offline liam

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Welp, he’s coaching an underachieving team now.

BINGO!