CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: otherdave on November 13, 2017, 02:17:52 PM
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Someone smarter than me recently said "If C's choose RFA Smart, they are not choosing someone else (i. e. UFA Aron Baynes)". I have been playing around with salary figures for next year trying to figure out who to resign while keeping out of luxury tax territory for one last year. It is darn near impossible to bring back everyone under contract (no trades) and bring back both MS and AB, and still stay under the luxury tax - this even assumes Lakers pick doesn't convey and swapping out Nader for someone cheaper, and only keeping 14 players.
While trying to be creative, I remembered Omer Asik's odd 3 yr balloon contract starting in the 2012-2013 season, which paid 5 mil, 5 mil and 15 mil the final year - which was allowed under the Gilbert Arenas provision in the CBA. I thought maybe C's could get Smart to sign a balloon type contract, but upon further research the Gilbert provision mostly only pertains to 2nd rd picks with early or non bird rights, plus I think cap space maybe needed.
I'm I missing something, or is this an impossible task to sign both and stay under lux tax?
other miscellaneous questions:
Can anyone confirm that K Allen & J Bird's 2 way contracts are just for one year (not 2 yr)?
After injuries settle down, would Yabu benefit from some playing time in G league or does he develop better riding bench with parent club?
I think I get how 1st rd rookie contracts work vs. how 2nd rd rookie contracts can be structured. Dan Theis was neither of these things, I believe he was signed as UFA (??) - how is it that he is a RFA after 2 years - I know C's only offered him a 2 yr deal, but where should I be reading in Larry Coon's FAQs?
Thanks in advance.
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I’m busy. But both can probably be kept — just a matter of what tax bill the team is willing to pay, which is compounded by what happens with the Lakers pick.
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Looking at rough numbers I don't see any way we can keep Smart and stay under the tax line. Not unless he accepts the QO. Baynes should be able to be kept on a reasonable deal that will keep us under the tax line next year, though.
And this, ultimately, is why I'm beginning to believe Smart's tenure in Boston is near the end. After next season, starting in 2019-20, we're looking at probably five straight years of being over the tax, depending on on what Horford's next contract looks like, and assuming both Brown and Tatum get max extensions. I feel like Wyc will have no problem paying the lux tax for those guys, but I'm not sure about Smart. If they weren't willing to pay the lux tax for Bradley, I just don't see them being willing to pay it for Smart, who is clearly an inferior player to Bradley.
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What is a "reasonable" amount for Baynes?
He will be a UFA and I don't think C's have his Bird rights, therefore C's can only offer up to the mid-level exception of about 8.5 million - I think this is correct, but let me know if this is wrong.
Is Baynes playing his way above an 8.5 mil contract? i.e. what will other teams be willing to offer?
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This is my fear that we will have to overspend just to keep one of those guys. Baynes solved a lot of our front court issues. H
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Here are all the relevant details:
We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19. The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M. So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.
Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:
Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit. Or none.
I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.
Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M. I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.
Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.
And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.
It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.
Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
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One possible scenario that may help the longer term picture is to basically swap Kyrie and Al's salaries.
Currently, we are scheduled to pay them a combined 51M in 2019-20, which would be their option year (30M for Al, 21M for Kyrie).
Most folks expect Kyrie to 'opt out' in order to sign a new 'max deal which would pay him ~31M+ for 3-5 years.
Most folks also might expect Horford to 'opt in' because why would he give up 30M in his age 33 season? He wouldn't be able to get paid near that much anywhere else, it is thought.
But Danny might be able to convince Al to 'opt out' and sign a multi-year contract at a lower per-annum number, but for more overall money. I.E., something like 3 x 20M. Possibly even on a slightly sliding scale so the cap hit reduces in the final year).
That would keep the overall annual cost for retaining both Kyrie and Al at about the same (just over 50M).
Just a thought. Obviously a lot of things could happen between now and then.
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I had thought about that too, Al would probably be more receptive to that 20m for 3 yrs the year after picking up his player option - would be great if Danny could corral him as you suggest.
Given this bleak financial picture, is Smart on the trading block at the deadline, or do C's leave the great chemistry alone, enjoy a deep playoff run, then let Marcus walk away for nothing next summer?
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Here are all the relevant details:
We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19. The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M. So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.
Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:
Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit. Or none.
I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.
Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M. I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.
Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.
And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.
It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.
Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
definitely an interesting dilemma but considering this team is designed to compete for a title, Wyc and company have shown a willingness to pay the tax in the past when they have a top team with a legit chance to contend. if keeping Smart and Baynes (if possible but if he plays like this the rest of the year, we won't get him back with the MLE so this becomes a moot discussion) puts us into tax territory, I don't think Wyc would hesitate to pony up the cash. It's not like Boston doesn't provide ample other sources of income for the team besides the playoff ticket revenue
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Here are all the relevant details:
We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19. The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M. So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.
Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:
Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit. Or none.
I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.
Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M. I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.
Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.
And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.
It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.
Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
Agree with everything except Baynes. With the limited amount of cap room most teams will have next summer, I would be shocked if Baynes received more than the full MLE, and very surprised if he received more than the taxpayer MLE. He’s a useful player, but he turns 32 in the middle of next season and has never averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, this year included. As valuable as he’s been in his minutes on the court, that screams MLE to me.
Accordingly I think the Celtics can keep both him and Smart next year if they are willing to pay the luxury tax. Assuming other teams believe the Celtics will be willing to go into the cap to keep Smart, that will keep his RFA offers low, meaning he might be stuck with either the qualifying offer or a longer deal at a price that enables the Celtics to afford him. More likely the former than the latter.
The wildcard is the Lakers pick, both in terms of the additional salary as well as the fact that the player could be a center (meaning Baynes’ would have competition for minutes) or Doncic (meaning the same for Smart). While I’m more bullish on the prospect of us getting that pick than the average poster here, it’s still well under a 50% chance that occurs.
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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?
He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.
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Please keep Aron Baynes.
I think we can find another breed of Marcus Smart out there.
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Please keep Aron Baynes.
I think we can find another breed of Marcus Smart out there.
Pretty sure you can say the same for Aron Baynes too lol.
Also, since we don't have cap space next year, we should use that to re-sign Smart if he comes for a reasonable offer of 10-14 million per year.
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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?
He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.
It isn’t really missing the forest for the trees. Baynes isn’t going to command a 4-year deal. Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer. It’s not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.
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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?
He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.
The thing is if he shot extremely well, there is absolutely no way Ainge would be able to keep him.
Our only hope is that Smart re-signs for a team friendly deal.
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I see someone offering Smart a huge deal like Dallas
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I see someone offering Smart a huge deal like Dallas
I thought that likely until Smart’s shooting somehow got worse this year. The season is short and he could still turn it around, but the odds of that have shrunk dramatically.
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I hope we just keep everyone and eat the tax. We'll have a chance at a championship, so I think it will be worthwhile to ownership.
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I think a lot could depend on if the LA pick conveys as well as the demands Smart and Baynes make for salary. We can only offer Baynes the MLE. Who knows if he will be happy with that. Smart might get a ridiculous offer that Ainge just won't match. And if the pick conveys, maybe that player replaces whoever doesn't resign(Doncic for Smart or Ayton for Baynes).
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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?
He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.
It isn’t really missing the forest for the trees. Baynes isn’t going to command a 4-year deal. Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer. It’s not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.
If Smart ends up at the QO, he's not as good as he is now.
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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?
He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.
It isn’t really missing the forest for the trees. Baynes isn’t going to command a 4-year deal. Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer. It’s not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.
If Smart ends up at the QO, he's not as good as he is now.
Disagree. He would be a casualty of limited cap space, and teams’ beliefs that the Celtics will match a reasonable offer, so why negotiate with someone who you aren’t going to sign? This leaves Smart with the option of signing a long-term deal for less than he’d like, or taking the QO and seeing if unrestricted free agency creates a better outcome. Which is exactly the strategy his agent used with Noel this summer (time will tell if that was wise).
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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?
He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.
The thing is if he shot extremely well, there is absolutely no way Ainge would be able to keep him.
Our only hope is that Smart re-signs for a team friendly deal.
Smart's never going to be an extremely good shooter, but if he was one, neither of us knows whether the C's ownership would opt to pay him.
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Do we even want smart if his shooting goes to career low percentages
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Here are all the relevant details:
We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19. The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M. So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.
Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:
Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit. Or none.
I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.
Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M. I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.
Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.
And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.
It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.
Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
Agree with everything except Baynes. With the limited amount of cap room most teams will have next summer, I would be shocked if Baynes received more than the full MLE, and very surprised if he received more than the taxpayer MLE. He’s a useful player, but he turns 32 in the middle of next season and has never averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, this year included. As valuable as he’s been in his minutes on the court, that screams MLE to me.
Let me clarify: My comment wasn't meant to indicate I think he will get paid _more_ than the MLE, but rather that I think he will likely get exactly that. There may not be many teams with a lot of cap space (and those teams don't tend to be contenders) but there are multiple teams that will have the MLE available. And I expect one or more would be glad to use that on a player like Baynes. Having a "true classic big" who can play ~20 minutes of above average low-paint defense has been part of the formula for each of the recent championship teams (Splitter, Bogut, Mozgov, Thompson, Zaza, McGee, Ezeli -- these "non-3PT-shooting" bigs all have rings now. Heck, Baynes also has one, as he was providing backup on that role behind Splitter).
In other words, we should expect that (barring injury or some other event that changes his value) that his price next summer will be the MLE.
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Do we even want smart if his shooting goes to career low percentages
Yes we do.
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Do we even want smart if his shooting goes to career low percentages
Yes we do.
Hmm.... just how low are we talking about here?
I think there are limits where the "we" in your comment may not be the correct pronoun to be using.
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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?
He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.
It isn’t really missing the forest for the trees. Baynes isn’t going to command a 4-year deal. Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer. It’s not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.
If Smart ends up at the QO, he's not as good as he is now.
Disagree. He would be a casualty of limited cap space, and teams’ beliefs that the Celtics will match a reasonable offer, so why negotiate with someone who you aren’t going to sign? This leaves Smart with the option of signing a long-term deal for less than he’d like, or taking the QO and seeing if unrestricted free agency creates a better outcome. Which is exactly the strategy his agent used with Noel this summer (time will tell if that was wise).
If I was another team, I wouldn't be worried about the Cs matching a market offer to Smart. The Cs would have trouble justifying matching him given his production and their cap situation, but to an offering team with cap room like the Sixers, he'd be a reasonable gamble to see if he can straighten himself out.
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Look, I love Smart as much as the next guy and he does make "winning plays".
But if some team offers him something along the lines of 4/80M+... then I'm not losing any sleep if Ainge decides to let him walk at that price.
I'd hope they keep Smart and keep him around 4/72M at max, but they will also need to pay guys like Brown, Irving, etc. in the future as well to keep them around.
I do think Baynes will be offered the full MLE and I think he'd accept (barring, god forbid, a big injury or something).
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Since I'm too lazy to look it up and at least one of y'all already knows...
Who has cap space to go over the MLE next year? Lakers, Sixers, and who?
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Here are all the relevant details:
We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19. The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M. So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.
Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:
Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit. Or none.
I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.
Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M. I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.
Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.
And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.
It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.
Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
Agree with everything except Baynes. With the limited amount of cap room most teams will have next summer, I would be shocked if Baynes received more than the full MLE, and very surprised if he received more than the taxpayer MLE. He’s a useful player, but he turns 32 in the middle of next season and has never averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, this year included. As valuable as he’s been in his minutes on the court, that screams MLE to me.
Let me clarify: My comment wasn't meant to indicate I think he will get paid _more_ than the MLE, but rather that I think he will likely get exactly that. There may not be many teams with a lot of cap space (and those teams don't tend to be contenders) but there are multiple teams that will have the MLE available. And I expect one or more would be glad to use that on a player like Baynes. Having a "true classic big" who can play ~20 minutes of above average low-paint defense has been part of the formula for each of the recent championship teams (Splitter, Bogut, Mozgov, Thompson, Zaza, McGee, Ezeli -- these "non-3PT-shooting" bigs all have rings now. Heck, Baynes also has one, as he was providing backup on that role behind Splitter).
In other words, we should expect that (barring injury or some other event that changes his value) that his price next summer will be the MLE.
Do you mean the full MLE? Currently there are 12 teams (including the Celtics) who would project to be in or near enough to th luxury tax/apron that they’d be ineligible for the big MLE next season, and there are a few other teams who would fall into that category if they keep a key free agent (New Orleans with Cousins, Milwaukee with Parker, Detroit with Bradley, etc). At least half the league is likely to be unable to offer the full MLE. On top of that, we see what similar centers like Dedmon and Pachulia have gone for the last two seasons, not to mention Baynes himself, and I just don’t see the market for anything more than the taxpayer MLE. I like him, but he’s not playing exceptionally better than the last couple of seasons. He just looks amazing because the void of his skillset was missed more than many of us realized.
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Here are all the relevant details:
We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19. The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M. So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.
Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:
Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit. Or none.
I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.
Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M. I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.
Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.
And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.
It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.
Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
definitely an interesting dilemma but considering this team is designed to compete for a title, Wyc and company have shown a willingness to pay the tax in the past when they have a top team with a legit chance to contend. if keeping Smart and Baynes (if possible but if he plays like this the rest of the year, we won't get him back with the MLE so this becomes a moot discussion) puts us into tax territory, I don't think Wyc would hesitate to pony up the cash. It's not like Boston doesn't provide ample other sources of income for the team besides the playoff ticket revenue
This pic is why the Celtics can go into tax territory. Thank you General Electric. I knew the logo on the jerseys would pay off.
(https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/celtics_uniform_ad_basketball_138967173.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&strip=all)
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It's not so much the tax as it is the repeater tax down the road.
Both players are role players, and by definition replaceable. Like both, but these aren't the guys you structure your payroll plan around. Marcus replaced Bradley who replaced Tony Allen. Danny has an eye for guards, and there's a lot more talent to choose from under 6'5 than over 6'9, so my bet is on Baynes.
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Smart should be a goner unless he takes the QO or something close to it. Hayward is going to need 30+ minutes and a good chunk of that would come from Smart.
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Tough choice. I'm really liking Baynes so far. But Marcus has so much heart. For now I'll probably go with Baynes.
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We haven't paid the taxes yet in the Brad Stevens era so if we have to pay the tax then pay it. We should be making decisions based on basketball this is not a hedge fund. It's not like we fans make any of the money anyway. Pay the tax if it comes to that. It's fair to criticize if they don't.
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I love Baynes but Theiss may be the starting center next season if he progresses offensively. I'm starting to believe that Smart is an integral part of this team so I'd prioritize him.
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Too early for this kind of convo IMO.
Guys still have a lot to prove, remain healthy, we don't know what will come out of the LaKings pick that has significant salary if conveys and could substitute them (eg. Baynes-Ayton/Bamba), the whole Hayward situation, who will kick us out of the playoffs and why.
Hey, maybe one of them is found with 4 pounds of weed in the trunk by then.
Baynes and Smart (to a lesser extent) are not cerebral players that can't be substituted in any way. I like both a lot, but it is too early.
Reminder: Last year we also had "players that must return", only 4/15 made it :)
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If we get the 1 seed this year without Hayward, compete well and look like being a serious title contender then I see no reason for us not to go into the tax. The key will be controlling it and having an escape route out of it before the repeater tax.
I haven't got the long term outlook in front of me but I imagine that Baynes would sign a 2 year deal meaning his contract won't affect the repeater tax. I'd expect Marcus to be signed to a 3 year deal that would mean he comes off the books at the point we might expect to pay Tatum, giving a net zero on salary.
At least in the short term I wouldn't think it's a problem to have both, especially if we can prove we would be top of the East.
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Here are all the relevant details:
We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19. The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M. So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.
Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:
Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit. Or none.
I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.
Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M. I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.
Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.
And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.
It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.
Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
Agree with everything except Baynes. With the limited amount of cap room most teams will have next summer, I would be shocked if Baynes received more than the full MLE, and very surprised if he received more than the taxpayer MLE. He’s a useful player, but he turns 32 in the middle of next season and has never averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, this year included. As valuable as he’s been in his minutes on the court, that screams MLE to me.
Let me clarify: My comment wasn't meant to indicate I think he will get paid _more_ than the MLE, but rather that I think he will likely get exactly that. There may not be many teams with a lot of cap space (and those teams don't tend to be contenders) but there are multiple teams that will have the MLE available. And I expect one or more would be glad to use that on a player like Baynes. Having a "true classic big" who can play ~20 minutes of above average low-paint defense has been part of the formula for each of the recent championship teams (Splitter, Bogut, Mozgov, Thompson, Zaza, McGee, Ezeli -- these "non-3PT-shooting" bigs all have rings now. Heck, Baynes also has one, as he was providing backup on that role behind Splitter).
In other words, we should expect that (barring injury or some other event that changes his value) that his price next summer will be the MLE.
Do you mean the full MLE? Currently there are 12 teams (including the Celtics) who would project to be in or near enough to th luxury tax/apron that they’d be ineligible for the big MLE next season, and there are a few other teams who would fall into that category if they keep a key free agent (New Orleans with Cousins, Milwaukee with Parker, Detroit with Bradley, etc). At least half the league is likely to be unable to offer the full MLE. On top of that, we see what similar centers like Dedmon and Pachulia have gone for the last two seasons, not to mention Baynes himself, and I just don’t see the market for anything more than the taxpayer MLE. I like him, but he’s not playing exceptionally better than the last couple of seasons. He just looks amazing because the void of his skillset was missed more than many of us realized.
Too many variables to be certain what the landscape will look like next July, but I'm pretty confident Baynes will probably get offered the taxpayer MLE at a minimum and the full MLE at a maximum. He's a solid, starting-quality role-player and that's role-player money.
Dedmon is actually getting more than the tax-payer MLE now at 6M (with a player option on 6.3M next year)... to be the back up behind Plumlee, a similar 'classic big' getting paid 12.5M. So even non-contender ATL has 18.5M wrapped up on two players at the 5. The Cavs have 16.4M - 18.5M committed to Thompson. Ancient, 35-year old Nene' is getting 3.5M - 3.8M guaranteed for the next three seasons. Cappella will be off his rookie deal and likely to cost a fair penny next summer. Al Jefferson is getting 10M for two years. We just paid Amir Johnson two years at 12M each and he's getting 11M this year. Vucevic is getting 12M+. Cody Zeller is getting 12M+.
Teams still pay for size, if they think it is reasonably competent at playing basketball. Baynes has shown he's more than reasonably competent.