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10 Game Evaluations
« on: November 14, 2023, 04:10:40 PM »

Offline SCeltic34

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10 games in.  8-2 record with a difficult schedule relative to other teams in the league so far.  Small sample size, but notable.

Some interesting stats that pop out for the C's (all stats are from NBA.com):

- Lead the NBA in net rating at 13.7, which is far ahead of 2nd place (Philly, at 11.0)
- 4th best in offensive rating at 119.5
- 3rd in defensive rating at 105.8
- 2nd in opposing team eFG% at 50.4 (2nd only to Minnesota, which is far ahead of everyone else at 47.9)
- 5th in defensive rebounding %, despite playing the Knicks twice (the Knicks are the best rebounding team in the league)
- 4th in eFG% and TS% at 56.7% and 60%, respectively
- Shoot 43.6 three point attempts per game - 2nd highest in the NBA, only behind Dallas
- Shoot 36.9% from 3, which is 10th in the NBA
- Celtics are a low turnover team, 13.3 per game which is 7th best in NBA
- One of the slower playing teams in the league, pace of 99.  Likely has a lot to do with playing the Knicks twice, as Joe emphasizes the C's to play fast
- One of the worst teams in forcing opponent turnovers at 12.4 per game.  I'd like to see the number higher since our roster is stacks with good defensive players, but I'd rather our players be solid and fundamental in defense rather than gamble for steals
- 25th in points in the paint at 45.4 per game

Too early personal evaluations/thoughts:

- I've been very critical of Joe (and will continue to be).  IMHO he didn't do a very good job last year in the postseason.  So far this season I think Joe is doing a good job.  His substitution pattern against Minnesota was interesting and didn't work all that well, but I didn't mind the experimentation.  The two losses were more on the players not playing well than it was Joe not coaching well, although both the players and coaching staff didn't do well against Philly.  I'd actually give Joe an "A" or "A-" so far.

- There is a newfound emphasis on getting players in the post.  Joe talked about adding a "curveball" this year.  In one of his interviews, he stated this multiple times and recognized that there wasn't enough diversity in our offense.  More post ups for Tatum, Brown, KP, and even Holiday (who is a very good post player) is that curveball, or one of them.  It's not about points in the paint (we still are near the top at 3 point attempts per game, as above), it's about generating good looks.  Inside-out basketball.  It works.

- Tatum is a monster.  His on/off numbers are off the charts.  His physicality is on a whole new level this year.  He's backing people down in the post which he never was able to do before.  He's attacking the hoop with much more confidence and force.  This has been one of the most enjoyable things for me to watch so far this year as a fan.  He's also rebounding extremely well.  He's a huge reason why we've been very good on the boards this season.  Before the season started, I was actually concerned with rebounding since Al is declining, we'd likely start a small lineup, and because KP isn't the most proficient rebounder despite his size.  I'm very happy with the way our team has crashed the glass.  Giving up a lot of offensive rebounds to the Knicks is understandable. 

- I'm in what seems to be an ever diminishing group of fans that support JB.  Yes, his decision making still is suspect and needs significant improvement.  He still has bad tendencies to force the issue and dribble into traffic, take ill-advised shots, etc.  Personally I fault the coaching staff some for this - they obviously don't want to limit a star player, but they need to help him recognize ways to make the game easier and play more to his strengths.  I love JB's aggressive mindset and I always want him to attack in transition.  I understand why other fans are critical of him, but at the same time I think he gets too much flak.  He takes pressure off of Tatum when he has it going.  We can look at the advanced on/off stats and compare it to Tatum, but I don't think that this is the best way to evaluate him.  He's part of the best starting lineup in the NBA and our team is winning and has made deep playoff runs with him in it.

- I don't like JB initiating the offense.  I don't mind him getting a few reps in pick and roll (he's developing a decent connection with KP), but he should not be the primary ballhandler.  When Tatum doesn't have the ball, I want Holiday doing that.  Or White.  I want Joe and co. to enforce this in close games.

- We're going to need a consistent 9th man.  I haven't minded Joe not playing more players so far since we've been blowing opponents out and the starters often get a shorter night because of this.  I'm still in firm belief that we're going to need contributions from Brissett and/or Stevens, and that both can help us a lot in the regular season.

- Holiday is a great player.  Does so many good things on the court.  I was a Smart supporter but Holiday is a huge upgrade.

- The C's make KP's life easy.  He's going to continue to feast efficiently with buckets around the rim and open 3's on pick and pop.  His defensive presence has been remarkable also.  I was very high on this trade when Stevens pulled the trigger.  KP was exactly what we needed, especially with Al aging.

- I still want the C's to add a center that is solid defensively and can rebound.  Someone who contrasts with the skillsets of KP and Horford.  I don't expect Queta to be that player.  Kornet has played some solid minutes this year, but I don't have a great amount of confidence in him.

- $am Hau$er.  The ultimate floor spacer.  We're going to need him to perform in the playoffs.  In my view he's underrated defensively - has good lateral movement, much better than one would expect.  Also not a bad rebounder.  PP is beginning to pick it up after a slow start.  I like his energy off the bench.

- I haven't looked at the advanced stats yet, but I'm guessing the C's are one of the best 4th quarter teams in the league.  Obviously something to be happy about.

I probably have much more thoughts but since I have time off of work (though not willingly - I have to sue my employer) I thought I'd create this thread.  Maybe I'll add more later.  Welcome input of others.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2023, 05:07:05 PM »

Online Vermont Green

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I think the bench plays much better at home so far.  This is not unique to the Celtics but seems to make a big difference.  The Celtics are 5-0 at home, 3-2 on the road.  I am not concerned with the road performance at this point, just an observation.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2023, 01:50:39 AM »

Offline Who

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Best team in the league. They are the team to beat.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2023, 07:22:55 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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Quote
We're going to need a consistent 9th man.  I haven't minded Joe not playing more players so far since we've been blowing opponents out and the starters often get a shorter night because of this.  I'm still in firm belief that we're going to need contributions from Brissett and/or Stevens, and that both can help us a lot in the regular season.
Quote
I still want the C's to add a center that is solid defensively and can rebound.  Someone who contrasts with the skillsets of KP and Horford.  I don't expect Queta to be that player.  Kornet has played some solid minutes this year, but I don't have a great amount of confidence in him.

These are tied together. Kornet is currently the 9th man.  I'd like to see Brissett or maybe Stevens get more minutes but so far they have shown very little and neither is a true big. Like most C's fans, I swallow hard and accept Kornet, but NO WAY I let his contract become guaranteed in January. He has 3 big flaws: His hands are made of stone, he lacks athleticism and he should rebound better for his height.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2023, 07:43:54 AM »

Offline PAOBoston

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I thought Brissett was going to have a bigger role tbh. Been slightly surprised with his minutes. I think a swing type player is why the Cs need off the bench and surprised he isn’t getting many minutes.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2023, 07:55:09 AM »

Online jambr380

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I thought Brissett was going to have a bigger role tbh. Been slightly surprised with his minutes. I think a swing type player is why the Cs need off the bench and surprised he isn’t getting many minutes.

I think he might literally be the worst offensive player in the league. He has good energy and doesn't play above his role, but even in preseason he was just so bad on that end so I don't think that's going to change. I do think with our lack of options that he will eventually be playing some real minutes due to injuries and such, but he hasn't exactly shown to be the solution.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2023, 08:07:21 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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I thought Brissett was going to have a bigger role tbh. Been slightly surprised with his minutes. I think a swing type player is why the Cs need off the bench and surprised he isn’t getting many minutes.

I think he might literally be the worst offensive player in the league. He has good energy and doesn't play above his role, but even in preseason he was just so bad on that end so I don't think that's going to change. I do think with our lack of options that he will eventually be playing some real minutes due to injuries and such, but he hasn't exactly shown to be the solution.
Thought experiment: Is Brissett a worse offensive player than Luke Kornet whose only offensive skill is the dunk?

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2023, 08:29:40 AM »

Online CelticsWhat35

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The 3-pt attempts and % ranks should be more in line, which means I believe they take too many.  That correlates to the fact that they’re 25th in points in the paint.  Between Porzingis, Tatum, Brown snd Holiday, there’s no reason they should be that low.  There’s been more of an emphasis compared to last year, but still not enough.  Very few plays are being run with the intention of getting the ball to the low post

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2023, 09:11:04 AM »

Offline Kernewek

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The 3-pt attempts and % ranks should be more in line, which means I believe they take too many.  That correlates to the fact that they’re 25th in points in the paint.  Between Porzingis, Tatum, Brown snd Holiday, there’s no reason they should be that low.  There’s been more of an emphasis compared to last year, but still not enough.  Very few plays are being run with the intention of getting the ball to the low post
How do you suspect the Celtics compare to the league average in this regard?
Man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time.

But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2023, 09:22:14 AM »

Offline michigan adam

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It is no longer a low post league.  It is a drive and kick league.  25th in points in paint means we kick on the drives and offensive rebounds more than other teams, and that makes sense.  Our top 8 players are all excellent 3 point shooters(even though big AL and PP have started slow).

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2023, 10:32:02 AM »

Online CelticsWhat35

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It is no longer a low post league.  It is a drive and kick league.  25th in points in paint means we kick on the drives and offensive rebounds more than other teams, and that makes sense.  Our top 8 players are all excellent 3 point shooters(even though big AL and PP have started slow).

I would pump the breaks on categorizing our top 8 as “excellent” 3 point shooters.  Hauser might be the only one to fall in that category.  The rest I would categorize as “good/very good”.  I also understand that the game has changed, but when you see how efficient the team has been inside the arc, it would stand to reason that they might want to incorporate that more into the offense.  It would also lead to more free throw attempts

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2023, 12:26:52 PM »

Offline Kernewek

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It is no longer a low post league.  It is a drive and kick league.  25th in points in paint means we kick on the drives and offensive rebounds more than other teams, and that makes sense.  Our top 8 players are all excellent 3 point shooters(even though big AL and PP have started slow).

I would pump the breaks on categorizing our top 8 as “excellent” 3 point shooters.  Hauser might be the only one to fall in that category.  The rest I would categorize as “good/very good”.  I also understand that the game has changed, but when you see how efficient the team has been inside the arc, it would stand to reason that they might want to incorporate that more into the offense.  It would also lead to more free throw attempts
The thinking makes sense, but it feels very chicken or egg, doesn't it? Has the team been very good from inside the arc because they only take good two-pointers (chicken) or are all the two-pointers that the team takes good by virtue of being taken by the team that is very good from inside the arc (egg)?
Man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time.

But conversely, the dolphins had always believed that they were far more intelligent than man—for precisely the same reasons.

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2023, 12:39:31 PM »

Online Silas

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It is no longer a low post league.  It is a drive and kick league.  25th in points in paint means we kick on the drives and offensive rebounds more than other teams, and that makes sense.  Our top 8 players are all excellent 3 point shooters(even though big AL and PP have started slow).

I would pump the breaks on categorizing our top 8 as “excellent” 3 point shooters.  Hauser might be the only one to fall in that category.  The rest I would categorize as “good/very good”.  I also understand that the game has changed, but when you see how efficient the team has been inside the arc, it would stand to reason that they might want to incorporate that more into the offense.  It would also lead to more free throw attempts

I don't have a horse in this race, but....According to BasketballRefrence.com the average NBA three-point percentage is 35%. A player who shoots above 35% is considered to be a good three-point shooter and players that shoot above 40% are elite 3-point shooters (source: espn.com).

The Cs have four players that are above or close to 40% and two others above average:
Sam - 5.9  3pa at 47.5%
D White - 5.1  3pa at 41.5%
KP - 4.9  3pa at 40.8%
JT - 8.8  3pa at 39.8%
Jrue - 4.4  3pa at 36.4%
JB - 7.7  3pa at 36.4%

Hopefully Al and PP will wake up and smell the roses soon. 
Al - 2.9  3pa at 23.1%
PP - 3.1  3pa at 22.6%
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Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2023, 12:48:47 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I thought Brissett was going to have a bigger role tbh. Been slightly surprised with his minutes. I think a swing type player is why the Cs need off the bench and surprised he isn’t getting many minutes.

I think he might literally be the worst offensive player in the league. He has good energy and doesn't play above his role, but even in preseason he was just so bad on that end so I don't think that's going to change. I do think with our lack of options that he will eventually be playing some real minutes due to injuries and such, but he hasn't exactly shown to be the solution.
Thought experiment: Is Brissett a worse offensive player than Luke Kornet whose only offensive skill is the dunk?

My guy reaction: Yes. Actually, he easily is. Luke has played 85 minutes to Brisset's 67. He has 15 FGA to Brisset's 17. He's shooting 73,3% to Brisset's 17.6%
« Last Edit: November 15, 2023, 01:05:11 PM by keevsnick »

Re: 10 Game Evaluations
« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2023, 01:02:35 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Tatum is shooting 33% on pull-up threes (20-60). That's not bad given the difficulty of those shots.

But he is shooting 53.5% on catch-and-shoot threes (14-26). Thats....very good.