How Bad Are the Nesmith and Langford Picks?

[Tr1boy]

I liked what I saw from Langford

But hope he is healthy

Also Danny may have messed up another one draft (outside of Dort) by skipping on Keldon Johnson

[PhoSita]

Nesmith played a handful of games his last season in college and came into the NBA in probably the worst year for rookies maybe EVER.  No summer league, limited training camp, limited practices, social distancing due to COVID, distractions galore.

It's not just too early to tell, there's so many confounding factors for a guy who was drafted as a raw prospect that there's just no useful information to rely upon when trying to draw any conclusions.

He may be raw defensively, he was supposed to at a minimum bring a shot and he's shooting a horrific 21% from 3. He's not even shooting above 30% from 3 which is even bad for a shooter.

Make all the excuses you want, but if you can't come in and bring the minimum, which is your shooting skill, at even a below league average level you are seriously underperforming.

They clearly didn't draft him to contribute right away.  Same with Romeo. 

You don't draft raw guys like that and expect them to be a part of your rotation immediately.


For the record, I wasn't a fan of the Romeo pick for that reason, and as it's become clear how much of a project Nesmith is, I'm losing enthusiasm for that pick as well.


It's fair to criticize the rationale behind the pick, i.e. taking guys who are raw and probably won't contribute for a while.  But I don't think it makes sense to talk about either guy as a "bust" when we haven't yet reached the point where they're failing to give the team what the team expected to get when they drafted them.

[hwangjini_1]

another draft means another overreaction/jump to conclusion thread at CS it seems.

different rookies take different routes, some become nba players sooner than others. we need to see them for a while before deciding. patience is the name of the game here folks.

this may give us all some perspective on our two rookies, and langford included:

please keep in mind that barely playing as a rookie isn't a rare thing for Celtics first round picks. it does not mean they are a bust.

2019: Langford: 32 games, 370 minutes
2018: Time Lord, 32 games, 283 minutes (followed by a season 2 with 29 games, 388 minutes)
2016: Yabusele: 33 games, 235 minutes (followed by a season 2 with 41 games, 251 minutes)
2015: Rozier: 39 games, 311 minutes
2015: RJ Hunter: 36 games, 315 minutes (followed by a season 2 with 3 games, 9 minutes fafter being cut by the C's)
2014: James Young: 31 games, 331 minutes (followed by a season 2 with 29 games, 199 minutes)
2010: Bradley, 31 games, 162 minutes (followed by. a season 2 with 64 games, 1368 minutes)


By contrast,  here are some celtic draft picks who have played a lot in their first year:

2019: Grant, 78 games, 1219 minutes
2017: Tatum (#3 overall): 80 games, 2443 minutes
2017: Semi (round 2): 73 games, 1150 minutes
2016: Brown (#3 overall): 76 games, 1341 minutes
2014: Smart (#6 overall): 67 games, 1808 minutes
2013: Olynyk: 70 games, 1400 minutes


as for Nesmith, his path is more or less expected for a celtic drafted where he was.

also, maybe it is better to view Nesmith this way. we have a hypothesis we want to test -
 will Nesmith be good at NBA basketball?

To pick arbitrary numbers, such a decision would be best done if had had 10,000 data points to evaluate. then, we would have a strong enough basis to decide.

however, right now we dont have 10,000 data points. we have more like 10. Those 10 data points say that he sucks.

avery bradley 10 data points said he sucked.
time lord's 10 data points said he sucked.
rozier's 10 data points said he sucked.

do those 10 data points tell a lot about where the final 10,000 will end up? not reliably. Would it be nice if the first 10 data points for nesmith were good? yep, that would be nice.

but to get those 10,000 data points we need to be patient and watch Nesmith.

tl;dr = be patient grasshoppers and don't jump to conclusions prematurely.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Both will be players for a long time in the NBA. That much is already clear to me.

I think Langford could carve himself out an Andre Roberson role and earn a solid second contract. But I also think that CBS will bring his offensive game around slowly and he will end up being more like a Justice Winslow with the Heat or Delon Wright. I still have higher hopes for him than that, but I already see the path forward for him to become a long-term wing rotation player. He still needs development to get there.

I personally like what I've seen from Nesmith so far. I like his aggressiveness, even though its leading to a lot of missed shots and turnovers. I like some of his drive and kick and reset game that I've seen. I like his conscientiousness and work ethic on defense, even though so far that just means he gets taken advantage a lot and fouls a lot. He's much, much quicker and longer than I expected him to be, but I feel like his athleticism still hasn't caught up fully with his body. I have no idea what kind of player I think he will become. Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, and Terrance Ross all seem like good projections, but its going to be a few years before he gets there, if at all. Still, I think he's an NBA player that will earn a second contract. He's the guy that I could see developing more and more throughout his career.

Langford and Roberson are vastly different players. Langord at every level except the NBA has been a primary creator and go to scorer. Roberson was a super athletic undersized big who carved out a 3-D role despite really lacking as a shooter.

No I agree with you. Langford has demonstrated that he can work the baseline off-ball and is a strong on-ball defender. Overall abilities and potential, I think Langford is a different player. But his current and near future role is a lot like Roberson.

My preferred Langford projection/comp is Kent Bazemore. Both are smaller wings who compensate for lack of height with great length. If like Bazemore Romeo can become a consistent threat from 3 and run some pick and role ( I think these are very resonable expectations) he becomes a great compliment to Tatum and Brown.

Not bad. I don't mind that. I think Langford is already probably a better defender than Bazemore ever was, but overall I like that comp.

[Bobshot]

Quick thoughts:

- Langford is injury prone and the rare moments he's been healthy, has show he can be a good defender

- Nesmith had a college career limited by injuries, zero pre-season, very short training camp

Both players were "swing for the fences" picks

Let's put it this way: Danny isn't going to draft his way to a championship at this level of the draft. He did get a couple of blue chip players drafting in the top 5, but the team is too good to get to that draft level again in the near future.

Thompson was a good sign, and should strengthen the middle if he can get enough minutes. Tacko shows signs of dominating inside, but he doesn't get  enough minutes. Robert Williams has gotten lost in the Covid shuffle. The odd man out is Theis, but the coach loves him. He doesn't provide enough defense inside--can't jump.

With Walker returning, this is a pretty good lineup with Thompson at center.

As the Knicks game showed, their shot selection at times can be atrocious. Seems like everybody has the green light to shoot the 3. Olajewe in that game bricked two successive 3s as the first player down the court in successive possessions--as if he were Larry Bird. Ouch!

[GreenWarrior]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

[GreenCoffeeBean]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

[gouki88]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

[Ogaju]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

How many championships did those playoff teams win?

[Redz]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

How many championships did those playoff teams win?

Many great players would fall short of the championship measuring stick you're using.  While plenty of useless players have won one (see Bradley last year).

[Roy H.]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

How many championships did those playoff teams win?

Wait, aren’t you one of the guys upset about not trading for Harden?

[GreenWarrior]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

And that's all we would get out of him.

I swear celtics fans don't care about winning as long as they've got a guy that will dive on the floor they're content... Doesn't matter if he can play they're entertained.

The problem with players like bradley is everything he does as a player, come playoff time there's guys that can do what he does but with more talent... And height.

[Ogaju]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

How many championships did those playoff teams win?

Many great players would fall short of the championship measuring stick you're using.  While plenty of useless players have won one (see Bradley last year).

The point I continue to make is that the argument that these players have produced is not a very good one if the goal is championships. Unless the Cs have decided to be content with being also rans.

I am not particularly upset that Cs did not trade for Harden ... I would like him on the Cs but not at the expense of JB. Cs need him as an additional piece not a substitute piece. I disagreed with all those that argued against him for being a ball hog or disrupting figure.

[NKY fan]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

And that's all we would get out of him.

I swear celtics fans don't care about winning as long as they've got a guy that will dive on the floor they're content... Doesn't matter if he can play they're entertained.

The problem with players like bradley is everything he does as a player, come playoff time there's guys that can do what he does but with more talent... And height.

People loved the 14-15 Celtics and hated the 18-19 Celtics... I think some hated the bubble Celtics too lol

[Roy H.]

Remember when 90% of the blog labeled Avery Bradley a bust?

I’ve learned to wait and see.

...and he ultimately turned out to be a player we shouldn't have invested any time in.

Yeah man wouldn't want to waste any time on arguably the best on the ball defensive guard in the NBA for 3 or 4 years.

I really hate investing time in guys who start for us on playoff teams! What a waste!

And that's all we would get out of him.

I swear celtics fans don't care about winning as long as they've got a guy that will dive on the floor they're content... Doesn't matter if he can play they're entertained.

The problem with players like bradley is everything he does as a player, come playoff time there's guys that can do what he does but with more talent... And height.

I think your expectations might be a bit high.  The guy was a good starter.  Of course there are better players.  Hell, there are better players than Tatum.