CelticsStrong
Around the League => The Draft => Topic started by: smokeablount on January 02, 2018, 11:05:02 AM
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Let's say the LA pick conveys, but lands 4th, so we can't get Ayton, Bagley or Doncic.
Who would you prefer the Celtics take at #4? Another pre-season top 5 guy, like Bamba or Porter Jr. if his health checks out? Or a guy that's since emerged, like Sexton or Young?
Or maybe there's another prospect on your mind, or you'd like to move the pick- if that's the case, please share your thoughts on other prospects or trades. Let your opinion be heard!
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People are sleeping way too much on Porter JR because of the injury.
Come pre-draft workouts, he'll end up wow-ing teams with his workouts and will end up as a top 3 pick.
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People are sleeping way too much on Porter JR because of the injury.
Come pre-draft workouts, he'll end up wow-ing teams with his workouts and will end up as a top 3 pick.
I agree, assuming he checks out. I'd still roll with one of the pre-season top 5, either Bamba (defensive anchor with tons of upside that fills a positional need) or Porter Jr. (prolific scorer and standout among the very best)
Watching our bench struggle to put up points led by guards who have trouble scoring adds some appeal to Sexton and Young, but ultimately I'd want more than a bench spark with a top 4 pick this year. Bamba has DPOY upside and some shooting ability, and a wing tandem of Hayward-Tatum-Brown-Porter-Morris would be a deadly combo both now and in the future.
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4th pick, Jaylen Brown (painful), Smart in a S&T, MEM pick and fillers for Anthony Davis.
Wel, I don't know if it can be done with the current rules regarding S&Ts, but I think Ainge will be very agressive on something like that.
Another option is keeping the pick taking into account that we have to pay Irving in 2019 and a rookie-scaled contract, although high, can be very valuable. I can't choose here but I guess Bamba would be the player as we have Brown, Tatum and Hayward as very good wings.
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Porter, and it's not even close. I highly doubt he comes out though. Before the season even started he said he may stay for his sophomore season. This was before his injury so I think he will go back to school but if he comes out and is available at 4....BOOM!!!!!
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Bluff for trae young and trade down 2 spots for a first next year and draft mo bamba. Or trade up with grizzly and our pick for ayton. We really cannot lose if we get a pick 2-5. I've been really impressed with everyone lol.
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Porter, and it's not even close. I highly doubt he comes out though. Before the season even started he said he may stay for his sophomore season. This was before his injury so I think he will go back to school but if he comes out and is available at 4....BOOM!!!!!
I think Porter goes top 3 if he comes out. He's just too talented a scorer at the wing position to be available at 4.
I'd attempt to trade the pick before picking Bamba. Just don't think he's value when picked that high.
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Take porter move up with the Celtics pick to take Mitchell Robinson.. thank you
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Under this scenario, I think you take Porter, Jr. The kid is far too talented to pass up, plus the Celtics would have the luxury of allowing Porter to continue his rehab (if necessary), and bringing him along slowly, while surrounding him with veterans and players close to his age in a winning environment. If Porter proves that he is fully recovered from his surgery, then Danny could probably have a serious trade discussion about Anthony Davis without having to completely gut the roster of talent. Although, if it was up to me, I would prefer to hold onto a healthy Porter than trade him plus additional players and assets for Davis.
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https://www.si.com/nba/2018/01/02/nba-mock-draft-2018-trae-young-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic
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Porter, and it's not even close. I highly doubt he comes out though. Before the season even started he said he may stay for his sophomore season. This was before his injury so I think he will go back to school but if he comes out and is available at 4....BOOM!!!!!
I think Porter goes top 3 if he comes out. He's just too talented a scorer at the wing position to be available at 4.
I'd attempt to trade the pick before picking Bamba. Just don't think he's value when picked that high.
I agree he won't last until No. 4 in ANY draft but I was just going off the poll scenario above. Porter is a great talent right up there or higher than Ayton and/or Bagley. That is saying something as I'm a huge Bagley fan.
We may also have a goldmine (and a big trade chip) in the Memphis pick, which could convey as early as 2019 or be unprotected 2 years after that.
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I don't think Porter is a '#1 option' kind of scorer.
That's not to say he won't be good. He'll be a weapon in transition, and he'll be able to knock down shots that other people create for him in the half-court. That's valuable. Off-ball scorers put a lot of stress on a defense. But breaking a defense down and creating quality shots against set defense isn't his forte even in HS. He won't miss a year and skip a level and then suddenly show up with the ability to do that to NBA-caliber defenders.
I'd still be happy if we selected him this year, provided that his back checks out. But I don't know that I'd prefer him over Bamba's game-altering defensive potential.
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Are there any good draft and stash candidates?
With all of the young guys the Celts have on the team right now, plus needing to reintegrate Hayward next season, I think it might be best not to add any more young guys who will expect / need minutes right away.
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Straight forward answer: Michael Porter. If there is any team who is picking at the top of the draft that can afford to bring a prospect like Porter along slowly to ensure full recovery, it's Boston. His ceiling is essentially Kevin Durant. Think Tatum with a couple extra inches. He is an incredibly fluid athlete.
The Danny Ainge Answer- from my persoective, there are 7 elite talents in tbe draft. Picking at 4, there will absolutely be a team that sees one of the "TOP 3" (ayton, bagley, doncic) or whoever is available at 4 (portee, bamba, young, sexton) as a top-two or top overall pick in your average draft. I think Danny is aware of this, and he will try yet again to do a small trade-back to remain in that top 7, but also gain anothee future asset to dangle at a team like New Orleans.
It is clearly DA's draft philosophy to make these type of moves, and any player not named Ayton or Bagley in this draft is realistically not starting for this team as constructed for a couple seasons.
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Are there any good draft and stash candidates?
With all of the young guys the Celts have on the team right now, plus needing to reintegrate Hayward next season, I think it might be best not to add any more young guys who will expect / need minutes right away.
Not at #4, and we could use another impact bench player, which we should be able to get at #4.
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Porter having back surgery is scary at his age...be afraid to take him
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Agree with those that say we should focus on using as centerpiece of package for AD. It would be our best shot. We also need to get some more salary with the DPE to include as filler in any such trade. A long shot, but given commitment we have made to win now with Horford and Hayward signings, and Kyrie trade, drafting a 19 year old big as our starting 5 makes no sense at all. As much as I like the quality of bigs in this coming draft....
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Are there any good draft and stash candidates?
With all of the young guys the Celts have on the team right now, plus needing to reintegrate Hayward next season, I think it might be best not to add any more young guys who will expect / need minutes right away.
with Boston's own pick that should be fairly easy as there are a number of internationa players projected in the late 1st/early 2nd (aside from the potential of an American born player doing that). With the Lakers pick (if it conveys) Boston should get an impact player, as good or better than Tatum, and thus would have no need to stash said player.
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Are there any good draft and stash candidates?
With all of the young guys the Celts have on the team right now, plus needing to reintegrate Hayward next season, I think it might be best not to add any more young guys who will expect / need minutes right away.
with Boston's own pick that should be fairly easy as there are a number of internationa players projected in the late 1st/early 2nd (aside from the potential of an American born player doing that). With the Lakers pick (if it conveys) Boston should get an impact player, as good or better than Tatum, and thus would have no need to stash said player.
First of all, Tatum is a major outlier in terms of immediate impact.
Second, I think it would be ideal to not have to integrate another major young piece on top of Hayward.
But these are first world problems, I admit.
In part I'm looking at the fact that this team is going to get very expensive very soon, especially if they resign smart, as I hope they will. So stashing a guy and pushing out the time when he would start costing the team more than rookie scale money would be ideal.
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I voted Bamba, mainly because I expect Porter to stay another year to play with his brother for a year. If Porter comes out we pick him though, undoubtedly.
Kyrie / TRo
Brown / ? (Maybe Smart)
Hayward / Morris / Ojeleye
Tatum / Porter Jr / Yabu
Horford / Baynes / Theis
That's a crazy dynamic team
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I know some people love Bamba and think he plugs the last hole, but IMO, Porter is just a whole different level prospect from Bamba. I've watched all of them when I could this season, and I'd put Bamba as possibly no better than the 7th guy in this draft right now, behind the 3 in the title, Porter, Young, and maybe Jackson.
What I do think is if the pick does convey, Danny will do something outside the conventional wisdom. Like trade down and draft someone most aren't thinking about, like Carter or Bridges. Or get the #2 pick and ignore the conventional wisdom and take Young or Porter. Or ignore need and take Doncic.
If we got #2/3 and had a shot a guarantee of either Bagley or Ayton, it won't surprise me at all if Danny passes and does something else entirely.
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I'm thoroughly unimpressed with Bamba, though I was previously higher on him. I don't think he can be an impact player until year 4. At that point, Kyrie is 30, Hayward is 32, etc.
It doesn't match up with our timeline.
Young, on the other hand, does as a back up playmaker. I went Young. If we can't get Bagley or Doncic, I'm good with trading it too.
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https://www.si.com/nba/2018/01/02/nba-mock-draft-2018-trae-young-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic
Thanks for this, I haven't been keeping up with the top prospects so that was a great read for me. Curious why they think we would take the only player that's not a big in the top? We already have 1-3 with young guys and we need bigs, odd pick on their part IMO. But I guess you go with BPA not sure Danny thinks a euro is the best.
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Are there any good draft and stash candidates?
With all of the young guys the Celts have on the team right now, plus needing to reintegrate Hayward next season, I think it might be best not to add any more young guys who will expect / need minutes right away.
with Boston's own pick that should be fairly easy as there are a number of internationa players projected in the late 1st/early 2nd (aside from the potential of an American born player doing that). With the Lakers pick (if it conveys) Boston should get an impact player, as good or better than Tatum, and thus would have no need to stash said player.
First of all, Tatum is a major outlier in terms of immediate impact.
Second, I think it would be ideal to not have to integrate another major young piece on top of Hayward.
But these are first world problems, I admit.
In part I'm looking at the fact that this team is going to get very expensive very soon, especially if they resign smart, as I hope they will. So stashing a guy and pushing out the time when he would start costing the team more than rookie scale money would be ideal.
Tatum isn't really that much of an outlier when it comes to top 3 prospects. Even in his draft, Ball came in with a pretty immediate impact and Fultz probably would have if he wasn't shut down. Last year, Simmons was lost for the year, but Brown, while not as good as Tatum, still played valuable minutes, especially down the stretch (Ingram played a lot but was and still is raw). In 2015, the top 4 picks (Towns, Russell, Okafor, and Porzingis) all had solid rookie seasons. 2014, Wiggins and Parker made immediate impacts (and Embiid would have had he not missed 2 seasons). Sure you get a 2013 season every once in awhile, but those are far more the rarity than the norm. If Boston ends up with a top 5 pick in this draft, Boston should absolutely expect that player to play valuable minutes and be a contributor.
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I said Bamba but I'm a little surprised no one said Jaren Jackson. With his size and ability to shoot he could be the perfect modern big in the NBA. He's a bit of a project but a lot to like, there.
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I said Bamba but I'm a little surprised no one said Jaren Jackson. With his size and ability to shoot he could be the perfect modern big in the NBA. He's a bit of a project but a lot to like, there.
He's a perfect fit but people and scouts say his motor and his intangibles seem very inconsistent. Great player but I'm very high on him, if we decide to go for him, we would move down.
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Are there any good draft and stash candidates?
With all of the young guys the Celts have on the team right now, plus needing to reintegrate Hayward next season, I think it might be best not to add any more young guys who will expect / need minutes right away.
with Boston's own pick that should be fairly easy as there are a number of internationa players projected in the late 1st/early 2nd (aside from the potential of an American born player doing that). With the Lakers pick (if it conveys) Boston should get an impact player, as good or better than Tatum, and thus would have no need to stash said player.
First of all, Tatum is a major outlier in terms of immediate impact.
Second, I think it would be ideal to not have to integrate another major young piece on top of Hayward.
But these are first world problems, I admit.
In part I'm looking at the fact that this team is going to get very expensive very soon, especially if they resign smart, as I hope they will. So stashing a guy and pushing out the time when he would start costing the team more than rookie scale money would be ideal.
Tatum isn't really that much of an outlier when it comes to top 3 prospects. Even in his draft, Ball came in with a pretty immediate impact and Fultz probably would have if he wasn't shut down. Last year, Simmons was lost for the year, but Brown, while not as good as Tatum, still played valuable minutes, especially down the stretch (Ingram played a lot but was and still is raw). In 2015, the top 4 picks (Towns, Russell, Okafor, and Porzingis) all had solid rookie seasons. 2014, Wiggins and Parker made immediate impacts (and Embiid would have had he not missed 2 seasons). Sure you get a 2013 season every once in awhile, but those are far more the rarity than the norm. If Boston ends up with a top 5 pick in this draft, Boston should absolutely expect that player to play valuable minutes and be a contributor.
That seems pretty devoid of context regarding the situations all those other top picks were in. None of them were key cogs on the #1 team in their conference - in fact, most of those teams were basement dwellers. So it's certainly not wrong to say Tatum is an outlier.
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Tatum isn't really that much of an outlier when it comes to top 3 prospects.
Tatum is top 5 in the 3 point era among rookies age 20 or younger in terms of WS/48.
He's an extreme outlier.
His rookie season so far is up there with all-time greats in terms of contributing to wins for a good team.
Top Rookie 20 years old or younger since 1981 (3 point era), minimum 20 games, 18 mpg, by WS/48:
1. Nikola Jokic, age 20
2. Jayson Tatum, age 19
3. Magic Johnson, age 20
4. Chris Paul, age 20
5. Andre Drummond, age 19
Note that Win Shares per 48 is heavily weighted toward big men, so Jokic & Drummond are probably a bit overrated on this list.
The most recent player comparable to Tatum who had an impact on winning like this is Kawhi Leonard in 2012, and he was only playing 20 minutes a night, whereas Tatum is playing 31 a night.
Kawhi, Magic, Chris Paul .... that's super elite company when we're talking about rookie season impact.
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I like Porter. I would understand DA going in another direction though as team has Brown, Hayward and Tatum.
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I would trade up to get Doncic. #4 pick, Memphis pick, 2018 and 2020 Boston pick for Doncic. Of course that's for the #1 pick. Probably take off a Boston pick or two if you have to trade up to 2 or 3.
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My vote's for Bamba.
In the short term you could bring him along slowly to develop under Horford's wing. Much less disruptive to our rotation than Porter Jr would be and could valuable in matching size against some of the bigger teams out there like Detroit, Philly, and even Toronto.
In the long term I believe in the talent. A fully developed Bamba in contention for best defensive big in basketball. Give him a few seasons under professor Horford's wing, lock him in the gym shooting 3's in the off-season and you might just come out with the type of Monster that makes us a matchup nightmare against most teams and allows Kyrie, Tatum, and Hayward to feast knowing the defense is covered.
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trade for a star.
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What do people think of Trae Young? He’s putting up pretty impressive numbers 30 PPG and 10 APG. Seems Curry like. Not a need for us but you should always try to draft the BPA. Maybe you could even trade down a couple spots for him, and be Irving’s understudy for some years.
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What do people think of Trae Young? He’s putting up pretty impressive numbers 30 PPG and 10 APG. Seems Curry like. Not a need for us but you should always try to draft the BPA. Maybe you could even trade down a couple spots for him, and be Irving’s understudy for some years.
He's putting up never, ever done before numbers. Best college season I have ever seen, Maybe Durant was better thats it. Hes twice the passer Lonzo Ball was last year and is scoring 4 more points per game than Durants 26ppg.
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What do people think of Trae Young? He’s putting up pretty impressive numbers 30 PPG and 10 APG. Seems Curry like. Not a need for us but you should always try to draft the BPA. Maybe you could even trade down a couple spots for him, and be Irving’s understudy for some years.
He's putting up never, ever done before numbers. Best college season I have ever seen, Maybe Durant was better thats it. Hes twice the passer Lonzo Ball was last year and is scoring 4 more points per game than Durants 26ppg.
Man, you're really getting ahead of yourself. Never before seen numbers??? What are you talking about? Even in the 3 point era Shaq had more gaudy numbers as a starter. Michael Beasley wasn't far off either.
I'm not sure why you think his passing is so amazing either. I'm not a Lonzo fan by any means, but many of Young's assists are pretty simple drive and kick threes - not some amazing display of playmaking
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What do people think of Trae Young? He’s putting up pretty impressive numbers 30 PPG and 10 APG. Seems Curry like. Not a need for us but you should always try to draft the BPA. Maybe you could even trade down a couple spots for him, and be Irving’s understudy for some years.
He scares me because he’ll likely never even be an average defender. The tools just aren’t there, and he also doesn’t put in the effort (might also be a side effect of his high usage rate on offense). Everybody has a good PG nowadays, and I go down the list of starting guards and struggle to pick out many names that I think this guy can handle defensively. He has to be a heck of an offensive player to be a net positive for his team.
That said, he very well might be. Not sure how well he’ll finish inside against NBA length, but his passing and shooting are legit and should translate. High risk, high reward guy. Glad I’m not the GM having to make a decision on him.
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I think Porter will be long gone, but that's who I'd take, even if he's a bit redundant with Tatum and Brown. He's the BPA, in my opinion.
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I think Porter will be long gone, but that's who I'd take, even if he's a bit redundant with Tatum and Brown. He's the BPA, in my opinion.
Porter is going to stay another year at Mizzou mostly because he will need a show me year to get that #1 pick status and paycheck. He's a big risk healthwise and could drop quite a way since its a back injury.
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I think Porter will be long gone, but that's who I'd take, even if he's a bit redundant with Tatum and Brown. He's the BPA, in my opinion.
Porter is going to stay another year at Mizzou mostly because he will need a show me year to get that #1 pick status and paycheck. He's a big risk healthwise and could drop quite a way since its a back injury.
I agree. And the fact that his dad is there and his brother reclassified to be there also are factors to keep him there.
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Tatum isn't really that much of an outlier when it comes to top 3 prospects.
Tatum is top 5 in the 3 point era among rookies age 20 or younger in terms of WS/48.
He's an extreme outlier.
His rookie season so far is up there with all-time greats in terms of contributing to wins for a good team.
Top Rookie 20 years old or younger since 1981 (3 point era), minimum 20 games, 18 mpg, by WS/48:
1. Nikola Jokic, age 20
2. Jayson Tatum, age 19
3. Magic Johnson, age 20
4. Chris Paul, age 20
5. Andre Drummond, age 19
Note that Win Shares per 48 is heavily weighted toward big men, so Jokic & Drummond are probably a bit overrated on this list.
The most recent player comparable to Tatum who had an impact on winning like this is Kawhi Leonard in 2012, and he was only playing 20 minutes a night, whereas Tatum is playing 31 a night.
Kawhi, Magic, Chris Paul .... that's super elite company when we're talking about rookie season impact.
winshares are pretty meaningless stat unless you think Jordan Bell is significantly better than Tatum. They also generally require a team to win and most of the time top tier rookies aren't on winning teams.
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Tatum isn't really that much of an outlier when it comes to top 3 prospects.
Tatum is top 5 in the 3 point era among rookies age 20 or younger in terms of WS/48.
He's an extreme outlier.
His rookie season so far is up there with all-time greats in terms of contributing to wins for a good team.
Top Rookie 20 years old or younger since 1981 (3 point era), minimum 20 games, 18 mpg, by WS/48:
1. Nikola Jokic, age 20
2. Jayson Tatum, age 19
3. Magic Johnson, age 20
4. Chris Paul, age 20
5. Andre Drummond, age 19
Note that Win Shares per 48 is heavily weighted toward big men, so Jokic & Drummond are probably a bit overrated on this list.
The most recent player comparable to Tatum who had an impact on winning like this is Kawhi Leonard in 2012, and he was only playing 20 minutes a night, whereas Tatum is playing 31 a night.
Kawhi, Magic, Chris Paul .... that's super elite company when we're talking about rookie season impact.
winshares are pretty meaningless stat unless you think Jordan Bell is significantly better than Tatum. They also generally require a team to win and most of the time top tier rookies aren't on winning teams.
I don't think Win Shares and especially WS/48 are meaningless stats. You have to show that you stats are directly correlated with your team's ability to win. Yes, its a bit noisy stat that especially favors big guys who score in the paint and can rebound. But Tatum isn't a big guy and his .188WS/48 is ridiculously impressive for a rookie. He is not an outlier because of short MPG. He is playing 30MPG on a contender and is a major reason why. Taken into context, that stat tells a lot about just how good and special Tatum has been this year.
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I think Porter will be long gone, but that's who I'd take, even if he's a bit redundant with Tatum and Brown. He's the BPA, in my opinion.
Porter is going to stay another year at Mizzou mostly because he will need a show me year to get that #1 pick status and paycheck. He's a big risk healthwise and could drop quite a way since its a back injury.
Hmm... It would take a lot to turn down a top 5 pick. I guess family would be the reason.
I think of guys like Harry Giles. Not a great comparison, but many thought he was a top 2 pick. Again, I know his injury past was nothing like Porter's, but I can't imagine turning down a great draft position to go back to school.
Porter might help out his dad more by being a top 5 pick over coming back and potentially falling.
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My top 5 for the Celtics:
1) Ayton
2) Bagley
3) Porter
4) Bamba
5) T. Young
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Tatum isn't really that much of an outlier when it comes to top 3 prospects.
Tatum is top 5 in the 3 point era among rookies age 20 or younger in terms of WS/48.
He's an extreme outlier.
His rookie season so far is up there with all-time greats in terms of contributing to wins for a good team.
Top Rookie 20 years old or younger since 1981 (3 point era), minimum 20 games, 18 mpg, by WS/48:
1. Nikola Jokic, age 20
2. Jayson Tatum, age 19
3. Magic Johnson, age 20
4. Chris Paul, age 20
5. Andre Drummond, age 19
Note that Win Shares per 48 is heavily weighted toward big men, so Jokic & Drummond are probably a bit overrated on this list.
The most recent player comparable to Tatum who had an impact on winning like this is Kawhi Leonard in 2012, and he was only playing 20 minutes a night, whereas Tatum is playing 31 a night.
Kawhi, Magic, Chris Paul .... that's super elite company when we're talking about rookie season impact.
winshares are pretty meaningless stat unless you think Jordan Bell is significantly better than Tatum. They also generally require a team to win and most of the time top tier rookies aren't on winning teams.
I don't think Win Shares and especially WS/48 are meaningless stats. You have to show that you stats are directly correlated with your team's ability to win. Yes, its a bit noisy stat that especially favors big guys who score in the paint and can rebound. But Tatum isn't a big guy and his .188WS/48 is ridiculously impressive for a rookie. He is not an outlier because of short MPG. He is playing 30MPG on a contender and is a major reason why. Taken into context, that stat tells a lot about just how good and special Tatum has been this year.
it is the contender part though. Any stat that shows Tatum has a better rookie year than someone like Shaq is a misleading stat. Shaq averaged 23, 14, and 3.5 blocks and caused the Magic to have a 20 win better season, yet WS/48 say Tatum is better with a greater impact on wins. It is a meaningless stat in that context. Tatum has had an incredible shooting season, no question about it but 14 ppg with 5.6 rpg isn't some crazy season for a rookie.
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I think Porter will be long gone, but that's who I'd take, even if he's a bit redundant with Tatum and Brown. He's the BPA, in my opinion.
Porter is going to stay another year at Mizzou mostly because he will need a show me year to get that #1 pick status and paycheck. He's a big risk healthwise and could drop quite a way since its a back injury.
Hmm... It would take a lot to turn down a top 5 pick. I guess family would be the reason.
I think of guys like Harry Giles. Not a great comparison, but many thought he was a top 2 pick. Again, I know his injury past was nothing like Porter's, but I can't imagine turning down a great draft position to go back to school.
Porter might help out his dad more by being a top 5 pick over coming back and potentially falling.
Yeah I don't buy it I think he still comes out this year, he was supposed to be fully healthy within 3-4 months so plenty of time to show he's healthy at workouts pre draft. He will still be a top 3 pick when all is said and done I believe, not like staying another year and getting picked a spot or two higher will let him make more money in the short or long term, lose a full year of salary next year and be a full year later before he is off the rookie scale just doesn't make sense.
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Here's the quote & link to where Porter said he might stay longer than a year. This was before the season even started.
"Everybody thinks I'm not serious when I say that, but I actually might spend more than one year in college."
Porter said his main goal is to “leave a legacy” at Mizzou, and that he would consider returning for his sophomore year if the team struggles. Missouri hasn’t made the NCAA tournament in five years.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2017/10/18/16497706/michael-porter-jr-nba-draft-2018-missouri-two-years-in-school
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Thanks everyone for replying and voting. It looks like Porter Jr. and Bamba were the overwhelming choices, with some sentiment for moving the pick as well.
It'll be interesting to see how things change leading up to the draft. Hopefully LA stays crappy!
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From what I have seen and read of this years draft prospects I would create the following "way to early" tiers
Tier 1
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Tier 2
Young
Bamba
Porter (medicals could push him to tier 1)
Tier 3
Sexton
Jackson
Bridges
I admittedly haven't seen a lot of players and particularly want to watch Knox from UK.
If the Cs land the #4 or #5 pick this could be the toughest choice in DAs career. DA has historically gone with BPA. If the medicals check out that is Porter Jr. However Bamba is literally the perfect 5 for this roster moving forward and Young may be the most productive player in this class.
My brain says take Porter Jr, my heart says Bamba, and my gut feeling is that Young is going to be special.
I would take Bamba and watch and worry to see how good Porter and Young become. Ideal situation the Cs trade down and get Bamba.
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winshares are pretty meaningless stat unless you think Jordan Bell is significantly better than Tatum. They also generally require a team to win and most of the time top tier rookies aren't on winning teams.
It's true that most top tier rookies aren't on good teams, but a big part of that is top tier rookies often don't help teams win games.
I don't agree that WinShares are a meaningless stat. I think they do a pretty good job of capturing which players contribute to winning as opposed to those generating empty numbers.
There are flaws to the stat, like any stat, and it does overrate big men (especially bench big men on good teams, e.g. Jordan Bell as you point out). But I think it's fairly spot on with regard to Tatum being an outlier. Very few young players, even those drafted very high, are as good defensively, as efficient offensively, and generally as poised as Tatum.
You could look at Jaylen Brown or Marcus Smart, the Celts' two most recent high draft picks prior to Tatum, as good examples of that.
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From what I have seen and read of this years draft prospects I would create the following "way to early" tiers
Tier 1
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Tier 2
Young
Bamba
Porter (medicals could push him to tier 1)
Tier 3
Sexton
Jackson
Bridges
I admittedly haven't seen a lot of players and particularly want to watch Knox from UK.
If the Cs land the #4 or #5 pick this could be the toughest choice in DAs career. DA has historically gone with BPA. If the medicals check out that is Porter Jr. However Bamba is literally the perfect 5 for this roster moving forward and Young may be the most productive player in this class.
My brain says take Porter Jr, my heart says Bamba, and my gut feeling is that Young is going to be special.
I would take Bamba and watch and worry to see how good Porter and Young become. Ideal situation the Cs trade down and get Bamba.
It's not a bad problem to have, if all 3 are available, now is it :)
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I like bamba at 4 but he might be a project. Would rather package the pick for Davis and go after titles at that point but i have no idea how we would squeeze in his salary. Don't want to give up Harford as he is a gifted passer and floor spacer.
Let's hope lakers pick lands at 2 or 3 then we are in position for doncic or bagley!