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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 11:06:09 AM

Title: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 11:06:09 AM
The Celtics have two key free agents in Smart and Baynes.  Despite the consternation this will likely cause some on this board, Smart will be the top priority of those two.  With a shade under $13 million of room under the projected tax assuming no trades, it seems difficult to see the Celtics winding up under the tax while keeing both.  (This would be feasible if Smart signed his qualifying offer, but while that is possible, it wouldn’t occur until late in the free agency process, by which time Baynes would likely be off the market).

Of course, the Celtics could go above the tax to keep both, but why should they do that?  Assuming Baynes walks, here’s a conservative minutes distribution for the top 9 in the rotation:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

That’s 240 minutes.  And while I understand that players get hurt, and you obviously need to plan for that to a degree, that’s taken care of a little bit already in these assumptions.  If a starter goes down, about 12 of his minutes will get redistributed to the other starters, 5 will be given to Smart, and the rest can be given to some combination of the developmental youth (Semi, Yabusele, and Williams).  If a second starter goes down, most of the minutes can still be given to Rozier, Morris, and Theis, before also being given to developmental players (also notice that I am not counting Nader as a developmental player, so don’t worry.  Bird might get a look in the two-injury scenario.)

Really, if you keep Baynes, it means you’re moving Theis out of the everyone’s healthy rotation.  And while Baynes is probably a little better, Theis was pretty good last year, and the difference is so marginal that it wouldn’t seem worth it to go into the tax to very slightly upgrade those 15-20 minutes Theis will get.  It also means you’ve further clogged some of those developmental minutes, which could be short-sighted if we hope that one of Yabusele or Williams becomes a rotational big by a year from now.

So barring any sort of trades, it seems most likely that Baynes will find himself on another team next year.  We don’t need his minutes, and as he’d put us into the luxury tax, he’s truly a luxury item.  If Morris is traded, then certainly a spot opens for Baynes both in the rotation and on the books.  This makes sense if the Celtics can get back some sort of future draft asset, but not if the Celtics need to give up an asset to move him.  However, given the cap and tax situation with most contenders, there might not be a market for Morris, so the safest assumption is that he will return.  (And again, Nader is worthless, but moving his salary won’t create space for Baynes unless Smart comes in at around $10 million for next season, which would be $1-3 million lower than expected.  So Nader gets to stay.)
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 11:15:44 AM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Birdman on June 24, 2018, 11:18:50 AM
Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: PAOBoston on June 24, 2018, 11:21:11 AM
Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per (basically 120% more than what he currently makes b/c of non bird rights) for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: PAOBoston on June 24, 2018, 11:22:41 AM
Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes
GROSS

Howard is a loser. Keep that guy away from the Cs and their young guys.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 11:23:16 AM
Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.

Yep. He’s very close with Hayward, Theis and Horford, and he’s the only guy on the roster with a ring.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: CelticD on June 24, 2018, 11:33:31 AM
Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.

Yep. He’s very close with Hayward, Theis and Horford, and he’s the only guy on the roster with a ring.

Agreed. Kyrie has a ring too though.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 11:43:13 AM
Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.

Yep. He’s very close with Hayward, Theis and Horford, and he’s the only guy on the roster with a ring.

Agreed. Kyrie has a ring too though.

Brain spasm.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: otherdave on June 24, 2018, 11:49:36 AM
Assuming Smart is indeed returning (for more than the qualifying offer), I would like to see:

Morris traded straight up for a future 2nd round pick (the sooner the better) and

Barnes brought back on a one year deal with an option for a second year.



There is always a conundrum with most rookies in the last 30 years, they aren't really ready to play, but how do you develop them if you don't play them?  I think Baynes on a longer term contract will really block Robert Williams development.


Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: MaxAMillion on June 24, 2018, 11:56:25 AM
Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes
The guy is hated wherever he goes...no thanks.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: PAOBoston on June 24, 2018, 11:57:14 AM
Assuming Smart is indeed returning (for more than the qualifying offer), I would like to see:

Morris traded straight up for a future 2nd round pick (the sooner the better) and

Barnes brought back on a one year deal with an option for a second year.



There is always a conundrum with most rookies in the last 30 years, they aren't really ready to play, but how do you develop them if you don't play them?  I think Baynes on a longer term contract will really block Robert Williams development.
The G League is a way to have them develop when they cant get playing time in Boston.

Also, Theis is a FA next year and Horford has a player option next year too.

Big man position could look a lot differently next off season.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: jpotter33 on June 24, 2018, 11:57:48 AM
In this Baynes-less scenario, are we not expecting Williams to get regular minutes during the regular season? Given his likely role as a rim-protecting/rolling and rebounding big man that won’t be expected to score outside of lobs and putbacks, I think you could see him play 10-15 minutes a game in the regular season, especially given that we will likely have fewer close, competitive games this season with quite a few blowouts.

I see him playing a role like Jordan Bell played this past year in GS. Even within our system, it’s still probably a bit too ambitious to try and get away with only playing two true bigs in your rotation, especially since neither Horford nor Theis are traditional bigs.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: kozlodoev on June 24, 2018, 11:59:04 AM
Baynes isn't going anywhere. There's also no way Theis is getting 15 minutes of PT over Baynes.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: jambr380 on June 24, 2018, 11:59:10 AM
On the face of it, I think it really does come down to Morris OR Baynes. With Hayward returning, that might make it more feasible to move on from Morris. However, with Horford projected to start at Center, having Baynes, Theis, and Williams off the bench playing primarily the same position might make Baynes more of a luxury.

Of course if Smart moves on and we sign a decent guard with the tax payer MLE, then we could comfortably keep both and also sign a solid vet min guy. I believe Smart will be the first domino to fall and everything else that occurs will revolve around that.

And, while Wyc has said he will pay essentially whatever it takes to field a true contender, I am sure Danny will make it a priority to stay under the tax line for this season if it is within a couple of million dollars.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: footey on June 24, 2018, 12:08:19 PM
Baynes will have more value for next year's squad than Morris, given the return of Hayward.

Williams will compete more for Theis' minutes, not Baynes' minutes. 

I'd just get rid of Morris.  Even if its just for a future, highly protected 1st round pick, or a 2nd round pick.  As cheap as his contract is, given the need not to go into luxury tax this coming season, send him to someone who has room just to get rid of him.

We have to re-sign Smart.  I think he is a must.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: footey on June 24, 2018, 12:10:32 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: footey on June 24, 2018, 12:15:49 PM
The Celtics have two key free agents in Smart and Baynes.  Despite the consternation this will likely cause some on this board, Smart will be the top priority of those two.  With a shade under $13 million of room under the projected tax assuming no trades, it seems difficult to see the Celtics winding up under the tax while keeing both.  (This would be feasible if Smart signed his qualifying offer, but while that is possible, it wouldn’t occur until late in the free agency process, by which time Baynes would likely be off the market).

Of course, the Celtics could go above the tax to keep both, but why should they do that?  Assuming Baynes walks, here’s a conservative minutes distribution for the top 9 in the rotation:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

That’s 240 minutes.  And while I understand that players get hurt, and you obviously need to plan for that to a degree, that’s taken care of a little bit already in these assumptions.  If a starter goes down, about 12 of his minutes will get redistributed to the other starters, 5 will be given to Smart, and the rest can be given to some combination of the developmental youth (Semi, Yabusele, and Williams).  If a second starter goes down, most of the minutes can still be given to Rozier, Morris, and Theis, before also being given to developmental players (also notice that I am not counting Nader as a developmental player, so don’t worry.  Bird might get a look in the two-injury scenario.)

Really, if you keep Baynes, it means you’re moving Theis out of the everyone’s healthy rotation.  And while Baynes is probably a little better, Theis was pretty good last year, and the difference is so marginal that it wouldn’t seem worth it to go into the tax to very slightly upgrade those 15-20 minutes Theis will get.  It also means you’ve further clogged some of those developmental minutes, which could be short-sighted if we hope that one of Yabusele or Williams becomes a rotational big by a year from now.

So barring any sort of trades, it seems most likely that Baynes will find himself on another team next year.  We don’t need his minutes, and as he’d put us into the luxury tax, he’s truly a luxury item.  If Morris is traded, then certainly a spot opens for Baynes both in the rotation and on the books.  This makes sense if the Celtics can get back some sort of future draft asset, but not if the Celtics need to give up an asset to move him.  However, given the cap and tax situation with most contenders, there might not be a market for Morris, so the safest assumption is that he will return.  (And again, Nader is worthless, but moving his salary won’t create space for Baynes unless Smart comes in at around $10 million for next season, which would be $1-3 million lower than expected.  So Nader gets to stay.)

If we trade Morris for 2nd rounder, which is about all we can expect, I see an increase in Theis' minutes. Also you make no minutes allocation for Semi; he's good for up to 10 minutes a game. Also hoping to see some minutes for Yabu. I will be shocked if Morris is not traded before season starts.

If he is not, then it is probably because Hayward will need time to transition into the lineup.  Hope the removal of the plates solves the pain he experienced in back of his foot.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 12:18:20 PM
In this Baynes-less scenario, are we not expecting Williams to get regular minutes during the regular season? Given his likely role as a rim-protecting/rolling and rebounding big man that won’t be expected to score outside of lobs and putbacks, I think you could see him play 10-15 minutes a game in the regular season, especially given that we will likely have fewer close, competitive games this season with quite a few blowouts.

I see him playing a role like Jordan Bell played this past year in GS. Even within our system, it’s still probably a bit too ambitious to try and get away with only playing two true bigs in your rotation, especially since neither Horford nor Theis are traditional bigs.

We aren’t explicitly, but implicitly we are, since I think we can count on there being room for him to get those 10-15 minutes due to an injury or rest in at least 75% of games.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Eddie20 on June 24, 2018, 12:22:14 PM
No way. With the amount of scorers we have on our team, Morris' contributions to the team are greatly minimized. We are going to need Baynes a lot more than iso-Morris and his bad shot selection.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: BitterJim on June 24, 2018, 12:23:56 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

Agreed. Worst case scenario is either sending him to a team with cap space that wants a vet or a SF, or sending him to a contender in a three team trade with the contender sending the third team something in return for them taking on someone else with a ~$5 million contract
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: BitterJim on June 24, 2018, 12:30:18 PM
No way. With the amount of scorers we have on our team, Morris' contributions to the team are greatly minimized. We are going to need Baynes a lot more than iso-Morris and his bad shot selection.

Yeah. Morris was important last season, when we couldn't be sure if Tatum and Brown were ready for big roles (and, obviously, when Hayward went down, but we didn't bring him in to be injury insurance), but with both of them stepping up big time last season there's just no place for him.

I'd love to bring back the whole rotation, but if I had to choose between Morris and Baynes I'm taking Baynes 10 times out of 10
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Scintan on June 24, 2018, 12:37:25 PM
From what's been said and reported, we know, or at least "know", that:


I'm with Morris on this.   I don't see where he fits on the team next year, if Hayward's healthy.

Baynes
Williams
Theis
Horford
Hayward
Tatum
Brown
Irving
Smart
Rozier

Is already a 10-deep rotation, and that's not even all the players who can expect minutes.  I just don't see where there's room, or a style fit, for a rotational chucker on the wing. 
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: JBcat on June 24, 2018, 12:37:31 PM
No way. With the amount of scorers we have on our team, Morris' contributions to the team are greatly minimized. We are going to need Baynes a lot more than iso-Morris and his bad shot selection.

Yep, with Hayward coming back Morris is less of a need, and more of a luxury. 

I read on Boston sports journal which has some really good info there where they projected trade values of players by asking around the league.  Morris was projected to have a first round value in the 16-24 range.  If that’s true we may be able to get a Clippers like protected first round pick in the future. 

For roster management if we wanted to sign Howard AND Baynes with Hayward coming back on the roster, and Williams on board we could trade Morris, not re-sign Monroe, Nader, and Larken.  So it’s possible.  I was thinking if we could stash Williams overseas for a year as he’s unlikely to make a big impact his rookie year it can bring more roster flexibility.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 12:39:42 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

I think his upside is probably as a borderline rotation player.

Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: PAOBoston on June 24, 2018, 12:49:27 PM
I'm for keeping Morris.

1. The uncertain health/status of Hayward. We really don't know what he is going to look like. He would be good backup just in case. As we saw last year, you never know with injuries. And for 5 mil per as an expiring deal, Morris is a goo value.

2. With how the Cs play, I believe you can never have enough quality wings. They basically play with 3 wings on the floor so loosing a guy who can defend/score seems counter productive, especially considering that beating GS/HOU is probably the ultimate goal.

3. Morris brought a sense of cockiness/toughness to this team that they lacked in previous year. Thought it was a positive for the team and I think it played a large role in creating their identity last year.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: TheSundanceKid on June 24, 2018, 01:04:11 PM
I think it's quite feasible that we start the season in the luxury tax and make a move later down the line to get back out (likely trading Morris or Yab).
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 01:10:55 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

2. Those are all good reasons to want him back, but none of them make him a necessity.  Hayward’s return is going to lead to a lot of 1-big lineups, as is Irving’s return combined with Rozier’s continued growth.  Meanwhile, Horford has played the substantial majority of his minutes at the 5 for years, dating back to his time with Millsap and before that Smith in Atlanta.  He can handle it.

3.  While Morris should have positive trade value, there are ultimately few potential matches.  Here are the five teams that are nominally playoff (not title) contenders and could absorb Morris through cap room or a trade exception and not go into the luxury tax:  Charlotte, Indiana, Philadelphia, San Antonio, and Utah.  A couple of those are a bit of a stretch (Charlotte in terms of contention and Utah in terms of potential cap space).  Morris won’t be the top priority for any of those 5, and it’s very easy to see all of them going in another direction.  Beyond that, maybe the Lakers if they miss out on their free agent targets and want to try to be more competitive while preserving cap room.  Otherwise you have to look for some sort of opportunity after a tax team creates enough excess space under the tax via salary dump so that Morris wouldn’t put them back over, and that feels like something you can’t rely on.

Meanwhile, dumping Yabu isn’t going to get you very far unless Smart comes in pretty low this summer, and the cost to fill Nader’s roster space is greater than his salary, so dumping him gets you nowhere unless moving Nader himself gets you the space to keep Baynes.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 01:13:20 PM
I think it's quite feasible that we start the season in the luxury tax and make a move later down the line to get back out (likely trading Morris or Yab).

Doing so would put the C’s in the same spot as about 10 teams, with perhaps only 5 having the space to take on contracts.  Dumping Nader to get under is easy, but moving $5.4 million is not a given at the deadline this year.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: timpiker on June 24, 2018, 01:23:11 PM
My 2 cents based on “winning games “:
#1 priority- Smart
#2 Baynes
#3 Morris
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: dreamgreen on June 24, 2018, 01:46:11 PM
I like Morris's toughness we need that IMO. Can't overpay for Smart shooting guards that can't shoot are a dime a dozen! I'd take Baynes over Smart anytime with the current roster structure.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: vjcsmoke on June 24, 2018, 02:05:25 PM
I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: colincb on June 24, 2018, 02:21:56 PM
I expect Baynes to be here. I also think the Cs are going to avoid the luxury tax for one more year. Trading Morris (in addition to stretching Nader and letting Monroe walk) is by far the easiest way to sign Baynes, Smart, Bird, and Larkin. That gets you 14 players on the roster which may be enough with Allen and another 2-way player they pick up.

No to Howard for the record.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: pearljammer10 on June 24, 2018, 02:27:56 PM
Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes

Who said what now?

Baynes all day. Baynes will be back. Having both him and Theis just further deepens our bench and our lineups versatility. We can play any type of big man matchup with them both on the bench.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: dreamgreen on June 24, 2018, 02:30:25 PM
I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: vjcsmoke on June 24, 2018, 02:35:45 PM
Regardless of that valuation opinion, the BIG thing to consider is that if Smart earns a mid range deal, it becomes a LOT easier to create a trade for star players such as Kahwi (who usually earn 20m+) by using Smart's salary as part of the package.

I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Hoopvortex on June 24, 2018, 02:41:35 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

I think his upside is probably as a borderline rotation player.

I would put it a little higher than that, and he does have some unique traits at his size - though his downside is bleak because of the likelihood that his feet won’t last.

Early in the season it looked like he might turn into a monster on the offensive board, but a bigger sample size washed that out. Big hands, good handles at his size - but doesn’t have much aptitude (so far) for making a play. Shoots with range but the results (so far) are below average. The defensive rebounding (so far) is substandard.

He needs something he can hang his hat on.

Can’t be optimistic about his long-term future in Beantown.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: ManUp on June 24, 2018, 02:50:59 PM
We can't afford to let Bayne's walk, especially knowing we will probably be seeing Philly again in next year's play-offs. The guy is an ideal backup/spot starter at Center. The fact that he will likely be affordable is even more incentive to lock him into a multi year deal. Rob Williams is an unknown who we shouldn't expect anything from production wise if we expect to contend.

Smart is the most likely goner in my mind. I think his 12-14 million is an overpay and if he can't come down from that we have to let him walk or finish out the year with his Qualifying offer.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: hwangjini_1 on June 24, 2018, 03:09:41 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

I think his upside is probably as a borderline rotation player.

I would put it a little higher than that, and he does have some unique traits at his size - though his downside is bleak because of the likelihood that his feet won’t last.

Early in the season it looked like he might turn into a monster on the offensive board, but a bigger sample size washed that out. Big hands, good handles at his size - but doesn’t have much aptitude (so far) for making a play. Shoots with range but the results (so far) are below average. The defensive rebounding (so far) is substandard.

He needs something he can hang his hat on.

Can’t be optimistic about his long-term future in Beantown.
i have not heard of yabusele having troubles with his foot/feet. would you please provide a link to this information? thanks.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Hoopvortex on June 24, 2018, 03:16:21 PM

Of course, the Celtics could go above the tax to keep both, but why should they do that?  Assuming Baynes walks, here’s a conservative minutes distribution for the top 9 in the rotation:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

Those numbers look plausible for each individual. Having said that, there are only two bigs in your rotation, and their minutes only add up to a total of 45.

I’d say that Morris’ uncertainty about his role on the Celtics is entirely justified.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Hoopvortex on June 24, 2018, 03:26:51 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

I think his upside is probably as a borderline rotation player.

I would put it a little higher than that, and he does have some unique traits at his size - though his downside is bleak because of the likelihood that his feet won’t last.

Early in the season it looked like he might turn into a monster on the offensive board, but a bigger sample size washed that out. Big hands, good handles at his size - but doesn’t have much aptitude (so far) for making a play. Shoots with range but the results (so far) are below average. The defensive rebounding (so far) is substandard.

He needs something he can hang his hat on.

Can’t be optimistic about his long-term future in Beantown.
i have not heard of yabusele having troubles with his foot/feet. would you please provide a link to this information? thanks.

Sure. Here, for example:

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4726143/source-guerschon-yabusele-undergoes-foot-surgery-unlikely-for-summer-league

This was incorrectly reported as ankle surgery in several places. Bone spurs were removed from the tops of both feet. This is especially concerning, because the surgery was done because of a chronic condition, not because of the aftermath of an injury.  The surgery, in other words, dealt with the consequences – not with the causes - of the chronic situation.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 03:28:03 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: ImShakHeIsShaq on June 24, 2018, 03:37:14 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

Sounds like It's pretty much a lock and baynes is going to accept the awards on behalf of our other players if they win at the NBA award show.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 03:43:08 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 04:17:24 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

But, shouldn’t the Celtics source know all that? If the present intention is to bring him back, they’ve no doubt explored all the options internally. Taking that tweet at face value, it’s likely — even very likely — that Baynes is back.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Sketch5 on June 24, 2018, 04:29:27 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

But, shouldn’t the Celtics source know all that? If the present intention is to bring him back, they’ve no doubt explored all the options internally. Taking that tweet at face value, it’s likely — even very likely — that Baynes is back.

Yep. DA said they'd like to have Baynes back, some one reported Baynes wants to be back. I'm sure there will be a small move this summer to make things work. They still need a bruiser to push some of these bigs back. Plus it gives Williams some one to learn under about coming off the bench. Have two vet bigs is going to be huge for this kids development.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Celts Fan 508 on June 24, 2018, 04:30:01 PM
Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes

I’d rather have bring Dino Radja out of retirement than sign Howard. 
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 04:36:33 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

But, shouldn’t the Celtics source know all that? If the present intention is to bring him back, they’ve no doubt explored all the options internally. Taking that tweet at face value, it’s likely — even very likely — that Baynes is back.

I think you’re taking an unsourced quote a little too much at face value.  The primary point is that the Williams pick has no impact on Baynes.  The rest of it is standard PR stuff where you say nice things about a player you legitimately hope to have back if you can make the numbers work, but there’s no reason to actually talk about how to make the numbers work in said quote.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: footey on June 24, 2018, 04:38:11 PM
I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!

I think we match up to $15 per.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 04:43:21 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

But, shouldn’t the Celtics source know all that? If the present intention is to bring him back, they’ve no doubt explored all the options internally. Taking that tweet at face value, it’s likely — even very likely — that Baynes is back.

I think you’re taking an unsourced quote a little too much at face value.  The primary point is that the Williams pick has no impact on Baynes.  The rest of it is standard PR stuff where you say nice things about a player you legitimately hope to have back if you can make the numbers work, but there’s no reason to actually talk about how to make the numbers work in said quote.

Or, they intend to bring him back. Your reasoning is solid, but I think that Baynes is an important piece.

Bet you a TP / pizza / steak dinner on it?
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: blink on June 24, 2018, 04:51:51 PM
It is hard to know where DA is going to go with all of this.  But....

I think Baynes was outstanding for us pretty much all season.  He was an outstanding defender, even when forced to switch onto players that should have a big quickness advantage he still did well.  He has a nice touch on his little hook shots, can hit the short range ft extended jumper.  He blends well with the team and doesn't sulk when brad gives him limited minutes.

Like Salt said, this isn't between Baynes and Williams.  I am honestly wondering if Williams spends some time in Maine.  I think the C's do want Aaron back and visa versa.  Hopefully Smart will come back on the cheap so we can keep most (ALL) of our team from last season together.

If Yabu, Nader and even Morris need to go to keep Baynes and stay out of the tax I guess I would do that.  I think Morris is the player whose minutes are going to get cut the most next year with GH being back.  Morris may not be happy about where things will stand for him next year and might support a trade.

KEEP BAYNES!
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: SHAQATTACK on June 24, 2018, 05:14:22 PM
Baynes and Smart before Morris /Moose

Stiill want to swap Rozier for a decent 1st

Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 05:19:10 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

But, shouldn’t the Celtics source know all that? If the present intention is to bring him back, they’ve no doubt explored all the options internally. Taking that tweet at face value, it’s likely — even very likely — that Baynes is back.

I think you’re taking an unsourced quote a little too much at face value.  The primary point is that the Williams pick has no impact on Baynes.  The rest of it is standard PR stuff where you say nice things about a player you legitimately hope to have back if you can make the numbers work, but there’s no reason to actually talk about how to make the numbers work in said quote.

Or, they intend to bring him back. Your reasoning is solid, but I think that Baynes is an important piece.

Bet you a TP / pizza / steak dinner on it?

If Smart resigns for between $11 and $14 million in year 1 I will give you 10 TPS that Baynes doesn’t return.  (Under that amount and you can probably afford all of Smart, Baynes, and Morris by moving Yabusele, and over that you’re in the tax so might as well keep Baynes too.)
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 24, 2018, 05:41:47 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

But, shouldn’t the Celtics source know all that? If the present intention is to bring him back, they’ve no doubt explored all the options internally. Taking that tweet at face value, it’s likely — even very likely — that Baynes is back.

I think you’re taking an unsourced quote a little too much at face value.  The primary point is that the Williams pick has no impact on Baynes.  The rest of it is standard PR stuff where you say nice things about a player you legitimately hope to have back if you can make the numbers work, but there’s no reason to actually talk about how to make the numbers work in said quote.

Or, they intend to bring him back. Your reasoning is solid, but I think that Baynes is an important piece.

Bet you a TP / pizza / steak dinner on it?

If Smart resigns for between $11 and $14 million in year 1 I will give you 10 TPS that Baynes doesn’t return.  (Under that amount and you can probably afford all of Smart, Baynes, and Morris by moving Yabusele, and over that you’re in the tax so might as well keep Baynes too.)

Alright. I’ll shoot you 10 TPs if Baynes isn’t back, regardless of other signings.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: dreamgreen on June 24, 2018, 05:45:23 PM
I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!

I think we match up to $15 per.

I hope not! That would be the end of what Danny has built. Once you give a guy that will struggle to get more than 15 mpg next season if everyone is healthy that kind of money than who do you lose in the future? KI, Brown, Tatum? You can't pay everyone big money it just doesn't work. If Smart gets eight figures from the C's this off season than I know Rome is burning!
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Big333223 on June 24, 2018, 05:55:47 PM
I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!

I think we match up to $15 per.

I hope not! That would be the end of what Danny has built. Once you give a guy that will struggle to get more than 15 mpg next season if everyone is healthy that kind of money than who do you lose in the future? KI, Brown, Tatum? You can't pay everyone big money it just doesn't work. If Smart gets eight figures from the C's this off season than I know Rome is burning!

I'm curious why you think Smart's minutes will be cut in half when the team hasn't added anyone to the roster who plays the same position.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: otherdave on June 24, 2018, 07:51:37 PM
For those who want to keep Smart and Baynes at a reasonable prices, and Morris proves difficult to trade... as a last resort I guess you could waive and stretch Morris (3 yrs at 1.783 mil yr) and then trade Yabu if more salary needed to be cleared.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: ETNCeltics on June 24, 2018, 08:15:31 PM
Keith Smith said it's all but a done deal that Baynes will be back.

And Baynes is representing the Celtics at the NBA awards tomorrow night. It's pretty obvious that whatever pieces have to be moved, Baynes will be back. The only question is at whose expense.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: ETNCeltics on June 24, 2018, 08:25:44 PM
For those who want to keep Smart and Baynes at a reasonable prices, and Morris proves difficult to trade... as a last resort I guess you could waive and stretch Morris (3 yrs at 1.783 mil yr) and then trade Yabu if more salary needed to be cleared.

Morris won't be difficult to trade. He's a pretty useful player at a cheap price. We just might not get very much in return.

I don't think they'll trade Yabu. They're still pretty high on him from what Kaufman and so forth have said.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: wiley on June 24, 2018, 08:29:29 PM
I assume that (in the case of lowish salaried players mostly) they can be cut to make space when no deals can be found?  Or wrongo?
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 08:40:19 PM
I assume that (in the case of lowish salaried players mostly) they can be cut to make space when no deals can be found?  Or wrongo?

Not really, because even this assumes that you’re leaving one open roster spot, and signing someone at the vet minimum is going to cost more than you save.  You could stretch Nader, for example, at only $65k per year for 7 years, but he makes under $1.4 million this year, and a replacement would cost $1.5 million, so there’s really nothing gained.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: wiley on June 24, 2018, 08:51:47 PM
I assume that (in the case of lowish salaried players mostly) they can be cut to make space when no deals can be found?  Or wrongo?

Not really, because even this assumes that you’re leaving one open roster spot, and signing someone at the vet minimum is going to cost more than you save.  You could stretch Nader, for example, at only $65k per year for 7 years, but he makes under $1.4 million this year, and a replacement would cost $1.5 million, so there’s really nothing gained.

Thank you!  One more if you don't mind...  So, Morris can be traded to a team with space for just a pick (theoretically), and Baynes returning at a decent salary, even though he's a free agent, doesn't count against the cap as would filling the roster with a non Celtic free agent? 

And can the Celtics also take back a small amount of salary in a Morris trade (a cheap player), or that's off the table in this case?

TP in advance for spending time on beginner questions...
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 24, 2018, 08:59:10 PM
I assume that (in the case of lowish salaried players mostly) they can be cut to make space when no deals can be found?  Or wrongo?

Not really, because even this assumes that you’re leaving one open roster spot, and signing someone at the vet minimum is going to cost more than you save.  You could stretch Nader, for example, at only $65k per year for 7 years, but he makes under $1.4 million this year, and a replacement would cost $1.5 million, so there’s really nothing gained.

Thank you!  One more if you don't mind...  So, Morris can be traded to a team with space for just a pick (theoretically), and Baynes returning at a decent salary, even though he's a free agent, doesn't count against the cap as would filling the roster with a non Celtic free agent? 

And can the Celtics also take back a small amount of salary in a Morris trade (a cheap player), or that's off the table in this case?

TP in advance for spending time on beginner questions...

We don’t care about the cap.  We’re over it.  We care about the tax.  We can resign Baynes because he was with us last year, even though we’re over the cap.  We would be allowed to bring back a player, but as it’s likely Baynes would be signing for virtually the same salary we’re trading Morris away for (in the event that happens at all) it would likely create a complication with the tax and so might not work.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: colincb on June 24, 2018, 09:22:20 PM
I assume that (in the case of lowish salaried players mostly) they can be cut to make space when no deals can be found?  Or wrongo?

Not really, because even this assumes that you’re leaving one open roster spot, and signing someone at the vet minimum is going to cost more than you save.  You could stretch Nader, for example, at only $65k per year for 7 years, but he makes under $1.4 million this year, and a replacement would cost $1.5 million, so there’s really nothing gained.

Thank you!  One more if you don't mind...  So, Morris can be traded to a team with space for just a pick (theoretically), and Baynes returning at a decent salary, even though he's a free agent, doesn't count against the cap as would filling the roster with a non Celtic free agent? 

And can the Celtics also take back a small amount of salary in a Morris trade (a cheap player), or that's off the table in this case?

TP in advance for spending time on beginner questions...

We don’t care about the cap.  We’re over it.  We care about the tax.  We can resign Baynes because he was with us last year, even though we’re over the cap.  We would be allowed to bring back a player, but as it’s likely Baynes would be signing for virtually the same salary we’re trading Morris away for (in the event that happens at all) it would likely create a complication with the tax and so might not work.

And we care about the luxury tax because once we go over the line it starts the clock on the "repeater" luxury tax (3 of the last 4 years over the tax line) which would send the Cs' tax bill sky high. Going to happen eventually, but you want to stay out of it as long as possible.

This is what most likely ends the Warriors' run when they have to cut very good bench players and replace them with vet min contracts and still end up with a payroll that climbs toward $300 MM rapidly.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: loco_91 on June 24, 2018, 10:08:02 PM
I think Morris is the odd man out. He was pretty awful at times in the postseason - he just doesn't fit with what Stevens wants to do in the 2nd unit. Hayward's return will affect Morris more than anyone else - he's like Morris but much better at everything.

There's a >50% chance we play the Sixers in the playoffs, and you have to ask who guards Embiid if Baynes is gone. This year Stevens clearly preferred to put Baynes on him. I don't like the idea of relying on Horford and Theis, especially since Horford matches up so well with Simmons.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: jambr380 on June 24, 2018, 10:13:03 PM

And can the Celtics also take back a small amount of salary in a Morris trade (a cheap player), or that's off the table in this case?

Cs can definitely take back a player in a Morris deal. They would just need to make sure the other team has enough cap space to make up the difference in salaries and that the player is someone the Cs would prefer (over a vet min pick-up).
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Beat LA on June 24, 2018, 11:28:45 PM
I'm for keeping Morris.

1. The uncertain health/status of Hayward. We really don't know what he is going to look like. He would be good backup just in case. As we saw last year, you never know with injuries. And for 5 mil per as an expiring deal, Morris is a goo value.

2. With how the Cs play, I believe you can never have enough quality wings. They basically play with 3 wings on the floor so loosing a guy who can defend/score seems counter productive, especially considering that beating GS/HOU is probably the ultimate goal.

3. Morris brought a sense of cockiness/toughness to this team that they lacked in previous year. Thought it was a positive for the team and I think it played a large role in creating their identity last year.

TP on all accounts :). How did this develop into a Morris-bashing thread, anyway?

Don't get me wrong, I like Baynes, but for all of his faults, Morris is still a guy who can create something out of nothing, offensively, so to speak, and those dudes are difficult to find. Plus, with as gruesome as Hayward's injury was, he might be eased back into things in a reserve role, early on, not to mention the fact that it's probably not exactly a good idea to play anyone who is returning from any kind of major injury/surgery on back-to-backs, but then again, I'm not a doctor, so...;D.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: GreenEnvy on June 25, 2018, 12:20:14 AM
I really want Baynes to stay. I also want Smart, but understand the salary concerns over keeping both.

Baynes is really a great guy to have in the locker room and on the bench, and his impact on the floor is unheralded as well.

He would be a great guy to have Bob Williams hang around. If he keeps developing that 3PT shot, he should definitely stay here if he will take the taxpayer MLE.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: TheSundanceKid on June 25, 2018, 03:25:52 AM
I'm for keeping Morris.

1. The uncertain health/status of Hayward. We really don't know what he is going to look like. He would be good backup just in case. As we saw last year, you never know with injuries. And for 5 mil per as an expiring deal, Morris is a goo value.

2. With how the Cs play, I believe you can never have enough quality wings. They basically play with 3 wings on the floor so loosing a guy who can defend/score seems counter productive, especially considering that beating GS/HOU is probably the ultimate goal.

3. Morris brought a sense of cockiness/toughness to this team that they lacked in previous year. Thought it was a positive for the team and I think it played a large role in creating their identity last year.

TP on all accounts :). How did this develop into a Morris-bashing thread, anyway?

Don't get me wrong, I like Baynes, but for all of his faults, Morris is still a guy who can create something out of nothing, offensively, so to speak, and those dudes are difficult to find. Plus, with as gruesome as Hayward's injury was, he might be eased back into things in a reserve role, early on, not to mention the fact that it's probably not exactly a good idea to play anyone who is returning from any kind of major injury/surgery on back-to-backs, but then again, I'm not a doctor, so...;D.

I certainly like Morris and if we could keep them all and stay under the luxury tax I would. However I do think Baynes fills a much bigger need on our roster than Morris. His shot creation is much less important when you add both Haywards and Kyrie into the mix. Even if Hayward take half a season to really ramp it up, the extra shots that would go to Tatum and Irving would be enough to minimise his role.

With no Baynes we would be relying on Al for almost two thirds of the centre minutes in the regular season which is too much to me. I love Theis but I don't think Williams is going to step into a role this year. Also I don't see any replacements on the market that are good enough to let Baynes go.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Celtics4ever on June 25, 2018, 06:42:53 AM
I doubt Baynes is the odd man out.   I see us paying him and paying the tax unless the market is really high for him.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 25, 2018, 07:46:58 AM
The other thing if it comes down to Baynes vs. Morris: Baynes May commit to multiple seasons, whereas Morris is almost definitely going to be gone after this season.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: dreamgreen on June 25, 2018, 07:49:38 AM
I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!

I think we match up to $15 per.

I hope not! That would be the end of what Danny has built. Once you give a guy that will struggle to get more than 15 mpg next season if everyone is healthy that kind of money than who do you lose in the future? KI, Brown, Tatum? You can't pay everyone big money it just doesn't work. If Smart gets eight figures from the C's this off season than I know Rome is burning!

I'm curious why you think Smart's minutes will be cut in half when the team hasn't added anyone to the roster who plays the same position.

In the playoffs Smart averaged 29.9 mpg with no KI or Hayward whom both play positions Smart gets time at. Those guys will get 60-68 mpg combined so others will lose minutes Smart IMO will be one of those who will lose minutes. Is Smart going to take minutes away from either of them or JB, JT? No because they are all better than he is. If KI, Hayward, JB and JT all get 30 mpg that's half the minutes available in a game for the entire roster and you haven't put in one big yet. This is why Morris is already worried about PT next year!
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 25, 2018, 07:51:19 AM
The other thing if it comes down to Baynes vs. Morris: Baynes May commit to multiple seasons, whereas Morris is almost definitely going to be gone after this season.

I think that’s an argument in favor of Morris and not Baynes, personally.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 25, 2018, 08:02:30 AM
The other thing if it comes down to Baynes vs. Morris: Baynes May commit to multiple seasons, whereas Morris is almost definitely going to be gone after this season.

I think that’s an argument in favor of Morris and not Baynes, personally.

I don’t. We need some continuity on our roster. Sub-MLE deals for starting caliber players are ideal. Having to fill in roster holes through free agency, on the other hand, often leads to inferior players and/or poor contracts.

Next year there’s going to be a lot more money available in free agency. Guys will likely get overpaid again. Having a useful player locked up on a cheap contract benefits us, because we can avoid the outside market place.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Rosco917 on June 25, 2018, 11:53:18 AM
We need Baynes. When the game gets physical and is on the line his size and physicality pays off.
For what he does, he's the best we have.

Also, he found himself a nice bailout 3pt shot last year.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: azzenfrost on June 25, 2018, 11:57:26 AM
He wants to stay. C's want him to stay. They'll work something out.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: jambr380 on June 25, 2018, 12:09:45 PM
We need Baynes. When the game gets physical and is on the line his size and physicality pays off.
For what he does, he's the best we have.

Also, he found himself a nice bailout 3pt shot last year.

I am a Baynes fan and am in favor of finding a way to keep him, but he is almost never in the game when it is 'on the line.'

If Smart really is a priority and the Cs plan to spend north of $10M/yr on him, then one of Baynes/Morris will probably go and we will pick up another serviceable 8th-9th level rotational player for the vet minimum. We all love the team we just saw in the playoffs, but with Kyrie, Hayward, and even Theis returning, we just don't need every single one of them anymore.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: action781 on June 25, 2018, 12:30:27 PM
Very dynamic situation.

1.  Who do the Celts prefer in a vacuum -- Baynes or Morris?  Baynes gives that frontcourt strength, but we also have Theis returning and now Williams in the mix.  Do you need more than 3 centers in a trending small NBA?  Morris gives you some shooting and defensive switchability at the 4, but his role will be chopped with Hayward's return and he's only here for one more year although we could resign him with bird rights without an extra season of luxury tax implications as opposed to Baynes (we'll be going into tax already next offseason).  If the answer to that is Morris, than Baynes is gone.

2.  If we prefer Baynes, can we trade Morris to make it happen?  Since we cannot take salary back in a trade for him, what teams under the cap or with an exception have interest in him?  Maybe not too difficult, but a limitation of some degree.

3.  Even if trading away Morris, will Smart + Baynes fit under the tax?  Amir Johnson got 1 year $11 mil when he left Boston in a very similar role.  Are we sure a team like Brooklyn who wants to save cap space for 2019 won't offer Baynes something like that?  Or more?  If Philly doesn't land a max contract, they would certainly offer him something like that just to keep him away from us I'd think.  Basically, I'm not sure Baynes is going to accept this $5-8M figure everyone assumes he's going to take.  Lots of teams with money (ATL, BKN, DAL, LAC if Jordan leaves, LAL, PHI) could use a center.

Since all 3 of those things have to be true/work out for Baynes to come back, I'd say the likelihood of him returning is less than 50%.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on June 25, 2018, 12:43:41 PM
Quote
Morris gives you some shooting and defensive switchability at the 4, but his role will be chopped with Hayward's return and he's only here for one more year although we could resign him with bird rights without luxury tax implications as opposed to Baynes (we'll be going into tax already).

I’m not following what you mean here.  By implications, do you mean a binary “do we pay or not?”  Otherwise, signing Morris would definitely have some tax implications, as he’d push us pretty far into the tax next year, presumably.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: action781 on June 25, 2018, 12:51:24 PM
Quote
Morris gives you some shooting and defensive switchability at the 4, but his role will be chopped with Hayward's return and he's only here for one more year although we could resign him with bird rights without luxury tax implications as opposed to Baynes (we'll be going into tax already).

I’m not following what you mean here.  By implications, do you mean a binary “do we pay or not?”  Otherwise, signing Morris would definitely have some tax implications, as he’d push us pretty far into the tax next year, presumably.

Sorry, I mean for repeater status (will edit the post), so yes the binary implication.  The big reason why we don't want to pay tax this year is not to avoid a few extra million bucks, but rather to avoid the season of tax paying which will get us into repeater rates a season earlier.  We're going to be paying tax at some point eventually and it will probably be 2019 with Kyrie due a new contract that offseason.  So extending Morris has no affect on being the single push into a season of tax paying while extending Baynes now does.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: JHTruth on June 25, 2018, 01:01:20 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

I think his upside is probably as a borderline rotation player.

I would put it a little higher than that, and he does have some unique traits at his size - though his downside is bleak because of the likelihood that his feet won’t last.

Early in the season it looked like he might turn into a monster on the offensive board, but a bigger sample size washed that out. Big hands, good handles at his size - but doesn’t have much aptitude (so far) for making a play. Shoots with range but the results (so far) are below average. The defensive rebounding (so far) is substandard.

He needs something he can hang his hat on.

Can’t be optimistic about his long-term future in Beantown.

He's not nearly as athletic as I thought he might be. He's basically Big Baby without the post moves..
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 01:34:44 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 25, 2018, 01:47:31 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.

We have similar clues about Smart.  From interviews with Brad and Marcus last week:

Quote
“Everybody in the building would tell you we would love to have Marcus back,” Stevens told Murphy. “Marcus has been great here — a big part of our DNA when you look at what we want to bring to the table competitively every night. He makes guys better on both ends of the floor, he covers up for guys on defense. As high a level defender entering the league as I’ve ever seen.

“He’s going to keep getting better, and you want guys like that around. We’ll see how it all plays itself out.”


Quote
A team source said the Celtics want to bring back Marcus Smart and keep Terry Rozier for added depth and being a fully loaded roster next season, where they will be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

Quote
Does Marcus Smart think he will be a Celtic next season?

“Honestly, I do,” Smart told reporters at Brandeis University Wednesday.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 01:52:06 PM
I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!

I think we match up to $15 per.

I hope not! That would be the end of what Danny has built. Once you give a guy that will struggle to get more than 15 mpg next season if everyone is healthy that kind of money than who do you lose in the future? KI, Brown, Tatum? You can't pay everyone big money it just doesn't work. If Smart gets eight figures from the C's this off season than I know Rome is burning!

I'm curious why you think Smart's minutes will be cut in half when the team hasn't added anyone to the roster who plays the same position.

Not sure if this got answered, but basically with the return of Kyrie and Gordon, and the emergence of Rozier and Brown, that's 4 players already who arguably are ahead of Smart for minutes at the 1 & 2.

If Smart is 3rd string at both positions, it's hard to see how he gets as many minutes as prior seasons.    Now, this same squeeze was facing him going into last year, and it didn't happen because Gordon got injured right away and then Kyrie got injured late in the year.   But assuming everyone is healthy, and assuming Brad doesn't push Rozier back to behind Smart in the rotation, if anything, the squeeze looks even tighter on Smart's minutes this year.

If Smart is effectively now a 3rd string PG/SG on this roster, however versatile he may be at filling either, it's hard to argue paying more than Mid Level money for him.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 02:01:38 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.

We have similar clues about Smart.  From interviews with Brad and Marcus last week:

Quote
“Everybody in the building would tell you we would love to have Marcus back,” Stevens told Murphy. “Marcus has been great here — a big part of our DNA when you look at what we want to bring to the table competitively every night. He makes guys better on both ends of the floor, he covers up for guys on defense. As high a level defender entering the league as I’ve ever seen.

“He’s going to keep getting better, and you want guys like that around. We’ll see how it all plays itself out.”


Quote
A team source said the Celtics want to bring back Marcus Smart and keep Terry Rozier for added depth and being a fully loaded roster next season, where they will be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

Quote
Does Marcus Smart think he will be a Celtic next season?

“Honestly, I do,” Smart told reporters at Brandeis University Wednesday.

Subtle difference in wording there regarding the Celtics' positions.   The source in the Baynes' tweet used the words " We still intend to".   The Stevens quote you provided regarding Smart used words "we would love to".   Heck Stevens provided even a layer of indirection by putting it on "Everyone in the building" to say.  And then gives himself an out with "We'll see how it all plays out."

Okay, parsing these fragments too finely is probably overkill. 

 I just am not yet convinced that Smart coming back is all that much of a done deal.   I would be very disappointed if Danny signs him for a significant deal (which has LT ramifications in future years, not just this one) given that his role seems destined to be squeezed by the current roster, if healthy.   If he can be signed on the cheap, in accordance with being a bench player, sure.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 25, 2018, 02:27:21 PM
Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.

We have similar clues about Smart.  From interviews with Brad and Marcus last week:

Quote
“Everybody in the building would tell you we would love to have Marcus back,” Stevens told Murphy. “Marcus has been great here — a big part of our DNA when you look at what we want to bring to the table competitively every night. He makes guys better on both ends of the floor, he covers up for guys on defense. As high a level defender entering the league as I’ve ever seen.

“He’s going to keep getting better, and you want guys like that around. We’ll see how it all plays itself out.”


Quote
A team source said the Celtics want to bring back Marcus Smart and keep Terry Rozier for added depth and being a fully loaded roster next season, where they will be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

Quote
Does Marcus Smart think he will be a Celtic next season?

“Honestly, I do,” Smart told reporters at Brandeis University Wednesday.

Subtle difference in wording there regarding the Celtics' positions.   The source in the Baynes' tweet used the words " We still intend to".   The Stevens quote you provided regarding Smart used words "we would love to".   Heck Stevens provided even a layer of indirection by putting it on "Everyone in the building" to say.  And then gives himself an out with "We'll see how it all plays out."

Okay, parsing these fragments too finely is probably overkill. 

 I just am not yet convinced that Smart coming back is all that much of a done deal.   I would be very disappointed if Danny signs him for a significant deal (which has LT ramifications in future years, not just this one) given that his role seems destined to be squeezed by the current roster, if healthy.   If he can be signed on the cheap, in accordance with being a bench player, sure.

Parsing out the Stevens quote is my entire point about the lack of nuance in a quote attributed to an unnamed source that can fit in a single tweet, as we have with Baynes.  There’s certainly nuance involved in both.  That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 02:48:51 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: action781 on June 25, 2018, 04:02:19 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Celtics4ever on June 25, 2018, 04:10:21 PM
Baynes is the only guy we have that can guard really big center well.  I mean the big strong seven foot types.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 04:49:31 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: kozlodoev on June 25, 2018, 04:51:08 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.
Frankly, I see zero chance that our five best players will only play 30 minutes a game.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 25, 2018, 04:57:48 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

You do know that Kyrie and Smart went down at the same time, correct?  Smart played in exactly zero games in the regular season in which Rozier started, and averaged 5 minutes more per game overall despite Rozier picking up a ton of minutes after both Kyrie and Smart went down.  There’s no trend.

EDIT: Also, you cite Smart’s mere 24.2 MPG in February, which occurred in the four games post all-star break.  In those same four games, Rozier averaged only 22.3 minutes, and the only game in which he played more than Smart was a 28 point blowout of the Hornets, in which he got some of the garbage time minutes and no one on the roster played more than 24 minutes (Rozier got the most PT of anyone).

There’s no evidence that, during the regular season when both players were healthy, that Rozier was ahead of Smart in the rotation.  None, even after Rozier had started to break out in the second half.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: PAOBoston on June 25, 2018, 04:59:53 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.
Frankly, I see zero chance that our five best players will only play 30 minutes a game.
I don't think it that out of the question. Irving led the C's in minutes and barely played over 32. Ditto for Horford who was like 31.5. Brad loves rotations and limiting minutes during regular season.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: action781 on June 25, 2018, 05:09:05 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

OK, fair argument regarding Rozier's ascension.  But Rozier's minutes expansion in the playoffs was partly because we needed a point guard in Kyrie's absence.  If Horford was the one hurt, we'd see Monroe get tons of additional playoff minutes over Semi but that wouldn't mean that he's gaining favor in the organization.  Let's go back to your positional breakdown since I can see the merit in that.  Sticking to saltlovers totals, that can be broken down as:

1:  Kyrie (30) / Rozier (13) / Smart (5)
2:  Jaylen (16) / Rozier (12) / Smart (17) / Hayward (3)
3:  Hayward (17) / Jaylen (14) / Tatum (14) / Smart (3)
4:  Tatum (16) / Hayward (10) / Morris (22)
5:  Horford (30) / Theis (15) / Morris (3)

Granted, positional designations aren't that meaningful in Stevens' system, I don't think we'll see Hayward "at the 2" very much.  Him playing at the SG would essentially require three of Kyrie/Rozier/Jaylen/Smart to be on the bench at the same time while three of Horford/Morris/Theis/Tatum are on the floor.  It will happen, but not a ton, roughly as often as Kyrie/Rozier/Smart share the floor together.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 05:23:32 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

You do know that Kyrie and Smart went down at the same time, correct?  Smart played in exactly zero games in the regular season in which Rozier started, and averaged 5 minutes more per game overall despite Rozier picking up a ton of minutes after both Kyrie and Smart went down.  There’s no trend.

EDIT: Also, you cite Smart’s mere 24.2 MPG in February, which occurred in the four games post all-star break.  In those same four games, Rozier averaged only 22.3 minutes, and the only game in which he played more than Smart was a 28 point blowout of the Hornets, in which he got some of the garbage time minutes and no one on the roster played more than 24 minutes (Rozier got the most PT of anyone).

There’s no evidence that, during the regular season when both players were healthy, that Rozier was ahead of Smart in the rotation.  None, even after Rozier had started to break out in the second half.

Mea culpa on individual regular season games -- 'shoulda checked the game logs.   The overall trend there was more of a close tie in usage. 

I think my overall position is still well supported by what happened in the playoffs, though.   Stevens leaned extremely heavily on Rozier in the playoffs, with the latter logging 31+ minutes in all but one game and 35+ in the vast majority of them.   Smart, meanwhile broke 35+ in just one playoff game and was under 30 in a full third of them.

And you still haven't addressed the core positional issue on next year's roster:   Where is Smart getting his minutes?  Is he taking them back from Kyrie or Rozier?   Is he taking them from Gordon or Jaylen?

Sure, if guys get injured, it's nice to have a quality bench guy to lean on that you feel okay giving 25-30 minutes to.  But how much money do you tie up with on that guy if he's _supposed_ to only get 10-15 mpg if everyone is healthy?   And how many years do you sign him for?  Three?  Four?  Jaylen is going to need to be resigned in 2020.   The cost of that will have tax compounded on it already.   Paying the premium on the last year or two of a bench player's contract for the same position?  Not good financing.

Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Sophomore on June 25, 2018, 05:24:05 PM
It all depends on whether you think Theis can fill in for Baynes when we need to defend Embiid or another big who is ... big. The defense was better with Baynes on the floor, in general, and he was a critical player against both the Sixers and Cavs. My concern about using Theis to replace him, although Theis is very good, is that he doesn’t bring the same physicality. We don’t have an Embiid of our own, so we end up needing multiple bigs to match up depending on our opponent. Baynes was useless against Milwaukee and critical against Philly. If Brad believes Theis can do what Baynes did with Embiid, I’m fine seeing Baynes go. But I’m skeptical, and that’s the team we have to expect as our main obstacle in the East next year.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: saltlover on June 25, 2018, 06:20:35 PM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

You do know that Kyrie and Smart went down at the same time, correct?  Smart played in exactly zero games in the regular season in which Rozier started, and averaged 5 minutes more per game overall despite Rozier picking up a ton of minutes after both Kyrie and Smart went down.  There’s no trend.

EDIT: Also, you cite Smart’s mere 24.2 MPG in February, which occurred in the four games post all-star break.  In those same four games, Rozier averaged only 22.3 minutes, and the only game in which he played more than Smart was a 28 point blowout of the Hornets, in which he got some of the garbage time minutes and no one on the roster played more than 24 minutes (Rozier got the most PT of anyone).

There’s no evidence that, during the regular season when both players were healthy, that Rozier was ahead of Smart in the rotation.  None, even after Rozier had started to break out in the second half.

Mea culpa on individual regular season games -- 'shoulda checked the game logs.   The overall trend there was more of a close tie in usage. 

I think my overall position is still well supported by what happened in the playoffs, though.   Stevens leaned extremely heavily on Rozier in the playoffs, with the latter logging 31+ minutes in all but one game and 35+ in the vast majority of them.   Smart, meanwhile broke 35+ in just one playoff game and was under 30 in a full third of them.

And you still haven't addressed the core positional issue on next year's roster:   Where is Smart getting his minutes?  Is he taking them back from Kyrie or Rozier?   Is he taking them from Gordon or Jaylen?

Sure, if guys get injured, it's nice to have a quality bench guy to lean on that you feel okay giving 25-30 minutes to.  But how much money do you tie up with on that guy if he's _supposed_ to only get 10-15 mpg if everyone is healthy?   And how many years do you sign him for?  Three?  Four?  Jaylen is going to need to be resigned in 2020.   The cost of that will have tax compounded on it already.   Paying the premium on the last year or two of a bench player's contract for the same position?  Not good financing.

In the playoffs, Smart was coming off missing six weeks of basketball and was playing with a splint on his hand.  Of course he played fewer minutes than Rozier.  You can’t call that a trend, completely devoid of all context.

Stevens runs all kinds of lineups out there.  Sometimes it will be one guard and four forwards, sometimes it will be three guards, a forward and a big, and we’ve even seen the occasional four guard lineup.  We don’t need to know exactly who Smart subs in for, because it’s never mattered in the past — he’s always been a 25-30 minute per game player no matter if he’s starting or not, and really no matter who else is healthy.  He can fit into a number of different roles that don’t involve shooting, and in positionless basketball, that gets him ample minutes.

Smart will get 10-12% of the team’s payroll and play about 10% of the minutes.  That is a perfectly reasonable allocation of resources.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 06:37:55 PM

OK, fair argument regarding Rozier's ascension.  But Rozier's minutes expansion in the playoffs was partly because we needed a point guard in Kyrie's absence.  If Horford was the one hurt, we'd see Monroe get tons of additional playoff minutes over Semi but that wouldn't mean that he's gaining favor in the organization.  Let's go back to your positional breakdown since I can see the merit in that.  Sticking to saltlovers totals, that can be broken down as:

1:  Kyrie (30) / Rozier (13) / Smart (5)
2:  Jaylen (16) / Rozier (12) / Smart (17) / Hayward (3)
3:  Hayward (17) / Jaylen (14) / Tatum (14) / Smart (3)
4:  Tatum (16) / Hayward (10) / Morris (22)
5:  Horford (30) / Theis (15) / Morris (3)

Granted, positional designations aren't that meaningful in Stevens' system, I don't think we'll see Hayward "at the 2" very much.  Him playing at the SG would essentially require three of Kyrie/Rozier/Jaylen/Smart to be on the bench at the same time while three of Horford/Morris/Theis/Tatum are on the floor.  It will happen, but not a ton, roughly as often as Kyrie/Rozier/Smart share the floor together.

Okay - so THIS is actually a useful contribution to the discussion.   You are, as you say, using saltlover's original premises, Baynes is gone and we retain both Smart and Morris, and so Horford is forced to play all of his minutes at the 5.

This gets Smart to 25 mpg, while begging the question of: Why we would ever want him to play even just 3 minutes at the 3?

Seriously.   On a team with Hayward, Tatum and Brown, (not to mention Morris, Semi and possibly Nader) what possible scenario ever calls for playing Smart at the 3 other than injury of extreme lineup weirdness?

Why wouldn't you play each of Hayward and the two Jays just one more minute each?   Don't you want to win?   I get that these are nominal numbers and we aren't talking about giving Smart 3 minutes at the three in every single game.  But this notion translates to some ~240 minutes at the 3 over the course of the season.  That just sounds like a terrible idea unless at least one of those guys ahead of him are injured for an extended period.

This is not the same roster that had Isaiah and Avery starting and weak wings and the need to throw 3-guard lineups onto the floor all the time.   This roster is wing-heavy.

So even accepting the 3 saltlover premises, I see that walked back to 22 minutes for Smart right off the bat.   It still begs the question of whether you believe Smart is deserving of 17 mpg at the two, giving him the _most_ minutes at that position when at least two of the other three you have dividing up the remaining 31 minutes are clearly superior players.

And this is all only really supported by the original premises, which force Horford to play all his minutes at the 5 -- after a season which showed how much MORE effective he is when allowed to play the 4 a lot!!!!   This last year was arguably Horford's best overall season and a big reason was that he posted a Net-PER of +5.6 at PF (compared to a still very good +3.6 at C).   Horford played ~43% of his minutes last year at PF and it was a raging success.   Why do we want to walk it back?

If you instead acknowledge that we are better off playing at least SOME minutes with a true C (i.e, a Baynes/Theis type) up front and Horford at least SOME minutes at the 4, then that has a downward ripple effect.   You aren't playing Hayward 10 minutes at the 4 and you aren't playing Morris 22 minutes there either.   Not to mention that Semi guy will still be around.

In all his prior seasons, Hayward has barely ever played PF.   His last full season at Utah he played almost exactly 50/50 at the 2 and the 3, with a tiny bit of time at the 1.    And he was really, really good with this utilization, posting Net-PER ratings of +16.4 at SG and +10.2 at SF!     Again, why do we want to deviate from that?

So more likely, it seems to me is that Hayward is going to get almost all of his minutes at the 3 and the 2.   If Hayward splits his time across these two evenly, then we are talking about 15 & 15.   

Now, if Tatum is also taking a fair chunk of time at the 3, then Jaylen is likely to get most of HIS minutes at the 2.   I can easily see Jaylen getting 17-20 mpg at the 2 if not more.   He's just too versatile defensively and can be played against pretty much every 2-guard in the league, big or small.    Add it up, and very quickly Jaylen and Gordon have consumed 32-35 and maybe even more minutes at the 2-guard spot.     That leaves just 13-16 minutes AT MOST to split between Rozier and Smart at the 2-guard spot.

Similarly, assuming Kyrie is able to come back and play ~30 mpg at the 1, there is only 18 minutes at that spot to split between Rozier and Smart.

So across the two guard spots, we are looking at a total of at most ~34 minutes for both Rozier and Smart. 

Is the intention that Rozier will be marginalized back to a ~10 minute player?    Maybe.  But I doubt it.   

But if you don't, how does Smart warrant the minutes to justify a $12-14M contract?

Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 07:24:56 PM

Stevens runs all kinds of lineups out there.  Sometimes it will be one guard and four forwards, sometimes it will be three guards, a forward and a big, and we’ve even seen the occasional four guard lineup.  We don’t need to know exactly who Smart subs in for, because it’s never mattered in the past — he’s always been a 25-30 minute per game player no matter if he’s starting or not, and really no matter who else is healthy.  He can fit into a number of different roles that don’t involve shooting, and in positionless basketball, that gets him ample minutes.

Smart will get 10-12% of the team’s payroll and play about 10% of the minutes.  That is a perfectly reasonable allocation of resources.

This seems like hand-waiving.  Of course we know Stevens runs all kinds of lineups out there and he doesn't use normal C/PF/SF/SG/PG lineup nomenclature.   But fundamentally there are still 5 positions on the floor and their is a nature to each that each player fits to varying ability.

And there are only so many minutes in a game.  240 in fact.   If our 5 best players, Kyrie, Gordon, Al, Jaylen & Jayson are all nominally taking ~30 mpg, then that already leaves just 90 minutes for everyone else.     You want to carve out 24 of those for Smart (10%)?   I think if you do, then you are squeezing out Rozier.

I believe you build your rotation around the 5 best players on the roster, as I named and that their minute distribution is going to look something like so:

1:  Kyrie (30)
2: Jaylen (20), Gordon (15)
3: Gordon (15), Jayson (15), Jaylen (10)
4:  Jayson (15), Horford (13),
5: Horford (17)

This is based on the following 3 premises (notably concerning our 3 max players):

1) Al Horford was brilliant for us and had arguably his best season by playing about 43% of his minutes at the 4.
2) Hayward was brilliant in his last full season playing almost an even split between the 2 and the 3.
3) Kyrie is a pure 1.

When you look at it this way, this leaves the following minutes to be covered by the bench:

1: 18
2: 13
3:  8
4: 20
5: 31

Now, Smart isn't going to be covering any minutes at the 5 or 4.  Those will be covered by guys like Theis, Baynes (if re-signed), Morris & Semi (and Williams if not in Maine).

At least some if not all of the 8 minutes to be covered at the 3 are going to be covered by guys like Morris & Semi and maybe Nader if he's still here.   Let's be generous and carve out 3 of those minutes for super-small ball and give them to Smart.   That seems like a bad basketball idea, but whatever.

We are left with 31 minutes at the 1 & 2 that need to be shared by Rozier and Smart.   If you are giving Smart 24 minutes (10% of the team minutes), and we decided to give him 3 minutes at the 3 instead of using Semi, Morris or Nader, then 21 of those 31 minutes are going to Smart which leaves just 10 minutes for Rozier!!!

Now, yeah, injuries to starters mean some extra minutes will become available to the bench throughout the year.   So maybe Rozier gets a few minutes more due to injuries to Kyrie.    But you are still basically planning on him being a nominal 10 minute player in order to justify paying Marcus "10-12% of the team payroll".

And that's assuming you really want to give up 3 minutes to play an undersized Smart at the 3!   If you don't do that, then you are further reducing Rozier's nominal minutes to just 7 per game in order to justify that contract.

Are you really saying that you are advocating just trading Rozier now, while his value is high?


Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: JBcat on June 25, 2018, 08:32:35 PM
TP to the previous post for a very detailed minutes distribution.  I agree Horford at the 4 has helped preserve him, and I think re-signing Baynes is almost a priority for us for that very reason.

We might be in a situation though that Horford will have to play a little more of the 5 this year if we plan to roll out Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford lineups.  Baynes only played 18 MPG last year, and let’s say Theis plays 10 MPG at C, and Willians is the G league mostly.

C Baynes 18, Theis 10, Horford 20,
PF Horford 10, Tatum 20, Morris 18
SF Hayward 30, Tatum 10, Brown 8
SG Brown 22 Smart 22, Rozier 4
PG Irving 30, Rozier 18

So I think it could be something like this assuming everyone is healthy, but there is always going to be some injuries during the year to allow for some increase in MPG, and spot minutes for players like Semi. 

Horford might be playing a little more 5 this year, but it gets our best 5 on the court at 1 time.  As long as we don’t overuse him at the 5 we should be fine.  Smart and Rozier get 22 minutes each here in this distribution, and probably a little more because of injuries like I mentioned.  I don’t see a need for Hayward to play SG the way our team is constructed unless if you consider SG and SF pretty much interchangeable especially with Brown and Hayward on the court together.  My big question is if Tatum can handle more minutes as a PF. I think he can the way the league is now.

Edit.  Just wanted to add if we don’t re-sign Baynes, and don’t sign another center IMO we are too vulnerable at the center position.  I don’t think it’s a good idea having Horford playing ALL his minutes at center.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Celtics4ever on June 25, 2018, 09:15:05 PM
Quote
t all depends on whether you think Theis can fill in for Baynes when we need to defend Embiid or another big who is ... big. The defense was better with Baynes on the floor, in general, and he was a critical player against both the Sixers and Cavs. My concern about using Theis to replace him, although Theis is very good, is that he doesn’t bring the same physicality

I have the same concern and no he does not have the physicality to bang like Baynes.   Also, Baynes got in some people's heads.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 25, 2018, 09:26:01 PM
TP to the previous post for a very detailed minutes distribution.  I agree Horford at the 4 has helped preserve him, and I think re-signing Baynes is almost a priority for us for that very reason.

We might be in a situation though that Horford will have to play a little more of the 5 this year if we plan to roll out Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford lineups.  Baynes only played 18 MPG last year, and let’s say Theis plays 10 MPG at C, and Willians is the G league mostly.

C Baynes 18, Theis 10, Horford 20,
PF Horford 10, Tatum 20, Morris 18
SF Hayward 30, Tatum 10, Brown 8
SG Brown 22 Smart 22, Rozier 4
PG Irving 30, Rozier 18

So I think it could be something like this assuming everyone is healthy, but there is always going to be some injuries during the year to allow for some increase in MPG, and spot minutes for players like Semi. 

Horford might be playing a little more 5 this year, but it gets our best 5 on the court at 1 time.  As long as we don’t overuse him at the 5 we should be fine.  Smart and Rozier get 22 minutes each here in this distribution, and probably a little more because of injuries like I mentioned.  I don’t see a need for Hayward to play SG the way our team is constructed unless if you consider SG and SF pretty much interchangeable especially with Brown and Hayward on the court together.  My big question is if Tatum can handle more minutes as a PF. I think he can the way the league is now.

Edit.  Just wanted to add if we don’t re-sign Baynes, and don’t sign another center IMO we are too vulnerable at the center position.  I don’t think it’s a good idea having Horford playing ALL his minutes at center.

Good post.  And I 100% concur with your last statement.

On your lineup, you basically found 5 more minutes for Smart/Rozier by giving Tatum 5 more minutes at the 4 than my rotation.   If one thinks of SF & SG as 'wings' this reduced the total minutes that JT, GH & JB are consuming from those two positions from 75 down to 70, and loaded their coverage on the 3 which left 26 minutes at the 2 to be covered.  You then dropped using any of Morris, Semi or Nader for any wing minutes.

This gives you a full 26 minutes at the two and the 18 non-Kyrie minutes at the one, or 44 total minutes to split between Rozier and Smart.

You then shaved Smart down to 22 minutes instead of 24, thus getting Rozier a solid 22 minutes.

There are couple of things to think about here.

1) Last year, Tatum played only 20% of his minutes at PF.  He played 8% of his minutes at SG and 72% at SF.   Your rotation would have Tatum playing 66% of his minutes at PF.   That's a pretty significant swing.  Do we feel he has the bulk and stamina to do that now?

2) You are giving zero minutes to our bench wings.    I gotta think that Morris and Semi and yes, maybe even Nader (or even Jabari Bird) would be getting SOME minutes at the 3 & 2.

I'm not a fan of surrendering size at positions unless you have a significant speed disadvantage.  When tall guys are mobile enough to play a 'smaller' position it is usually advantageous to do so.     Because of his mobility and play-making skill, there are a lot of advantages to playing a guy with Haywards' size at the 2.  Similarly, because of his mobility and shot making, Tatum has a lot of advantages due to his length when at the 3.   Jaylen's great defense means he can pretty much play anywhere on defense, of course.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: jay on June 25, 2018, 09:54:52 PM
Saltlover,

Would there be any benefit to trading Morris/Yabusele for players that absolutely you dont want but make less money?  Look at Memphis, they say they want to make the playoffs. Trade Morris/Yabusele for Jarrell Martin, Andrew Harrison, and Wayne Selden. It works on trade machine and saves $3.15 million in salary cap space this season.

Is that enough savings to keep Smart and Baynes?
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: action781 on June 25, 2018, 10:33:34 PM
And there are only so many minutes in a game.  240 in fact.   If our 5 best players, Kyrie, Gordon, Al, Jaylen & Jayson are all nominally taking ~30 mpg, then that already leaves just 90 minutes for everyone else.     You want to carve out 24 of those for Smart (10%)?   I think if you do, then you are squeezing out Rozier.

I believe you build your rotation around the 5 best players on the roster, as I named and that their minute distribution is going to look something like so:

1:  Kyrie (30)
2: Jaylen (20), Gordon (15)
3: Gordon (15), Jayson (15), Jaylen (10)
4:  Jayson (15), Horford (13),
5: Horford (17)

This is based on the following 3 premises (notably concerning our 3 max players):

1) Al Horford was brilliant for us and had arguably his best season by playing about 43% of his minutes at the 4.
2) Hayward was brilliant in his last full season playing almost an even split between the 2 and the 3.
3) Kyrie is a pure 1.

When you look at it this way, this leaves the following minutes to be covered by the bench:

1: 18
2: 13
3:  8
4: 20
5: 31

Now, Smart isn't going to be covering any minutes at the 5 or 4.  Those will be covered by guys like Theis, Baynes (if re-signed), Morris & Semi (and Williams if not in Maine).

At least some if not all of the 8 minutes to be covered at the 3 are going to be covered by guys like Morris & Semi and maybe Nader if he's still here.   Let's be generous and carve out 3 of those minutes for super-small ball and give them to Smart.   That seems like a bad basketball idea, but whatever.

We are left with 31 minutes at the 1 & 2 that need to be shared by Rozier and Smart.   If you are giving Smart 24 minutes (10% of the team minutes), and we decided to give him 3 minutes at the 3 instead of using Semi, Morris or Nader, then 21 of those 31 minutes are going to Smart which leaves just 10 minutes for Rozier!!!

And that's assuming you really want to give up 3 minutes to play an undersized Smart at the 3!   If you don't do that, then you are further reducing Rozier's nominal minutes to just 7 per game in order to justify that contract.

Are you really saying that you are advocating just trading Rozier now, while his value is high?

I'll address a few things here:

1.  Kyrie-Rozier-Smart trios are not as unlikely as you think.  In the 49 games last season which the three of them were all active, those three shared the court for a total of 178.5 minutes which averages about 3.6 minutes per game.  The lineup was used in 43 different games out of the 49.  Those lineups were a +9.5 differential in points per 100 possessions (+58 total on the season).  So I don’t think they are that crazy nor that bad of a basketball idea and Brad seems to like them a little bit.

2.  For a minute, I liked your idea of putting your best 5 guys in at their positions first.  But the problem with that method is could end up pigeon-holing yourself to possibly need to play your 11th best guy more minutes than your 7th best guy.  Don't you want to play your better players more minutes?

3.  We can't keep both of Morris and Baynes, it can only be one.  So if we're keeping Baynes to play more 5 and push Horford to the 4, I'm cool with that, but the whole point of this OP is to avoid the luxury tax so Morris has to be traded.  Now, with Horford getting 13 minutes and Tatum 15 minutes at PF and no Morris in town, who picks up the other 20 minutes available there?  Theis can take a few, but not all of them he's going to be needed for at least 10 minutes for him at C.  That's why I see more of those PF minutes going to Hayward/Tatum whoever you want to slide there.  More of their minutes played at the PF will open up more 1/2/3 minutes for Rozier and Smart.

If we swap out Baynes for Morris in saltlover's original post, lets take another look at things.  I think you have to cut Morris' projected 25 minutes down to 20 for Baynes since he played 18mpg reg season and 20 mpg playoffs and has never played over 20 in his career.  Lets give 3 of those minutes to Kyrie and 2 to Gordon.

Irving - 33
Brown - 30
Hayward - 32
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Baynes - 20
Theis - 15

Let's see if we can make this work.

1: Kyrie (33) / Rozier (10) / Smart (5)
2: Jaylen (13) / Rozier (15) / Smart (17) / Hayward (3)
3: Hayward (18) / Jaylen (17) / Tatum (10) / Smart (3)
4: Tatum (20) / Horford (14) / Hayward (11) / Theis (3)
5: Horford (16) / Baynes (20) / Theis (12)

Thoughts?  I'm having trouble even remembering what point/question these minutes explorations even originated from haha, but I think it was all an effort to show that Smart can still get 25 minutes per game in a way that will not squeeze out Rozier.  And I think we've now shown it with Morris or with Baynes in town.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: action781 on June 25, 2018, 10:43:09 PM
Also, it appears that basketball-reference doesn't have Gordon Hayward having played a 50-50 split at SG/SF in his last season in Utah.  They have him playing 70% at SF and 30% at PF in the regular season and in the playoffs it was 38% at SF and 62% at PF.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html#advanced_pbp::none
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: wiley on June 26, 2018, 12:29:51 AM
Also, it appears that basketball-reference doesn't have Gordon Hayward having played a 50-50 split at SG/SF in his last season in Utah.  They have him playing 70% at SF and 30% at PF in the regular season and in the playoffs it was 38% at SF and 62% at PF.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html#advanced_pbp::none

interesting numbers.  He's got like 25 pounds on Tatum i think...and just a little lighter than Morris.  Pretty hulky guy...
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: gouki88 on June 26, 2018, 12:37:30 AM
Also, it appears that basketball-reference doesn't have Gordon Hayward having played a 50-50 split at SG/SF in his last season in Utah.  They have him playing 70% at SF and 30% at PF in the regular season and in the playoffs it was 38% at SF and 62% at PF.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html#advanced_pbp::none

interesting numbers.  He's got like 25 pounds on Tatum i think...and just a little lighter than Morris.  Pretty hulky guy...
Yeah, over the last 18-24 months he's really bulked up. Hasn't made him any less mobile though
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: wiley on June 26, 2018, 12:49:00 AM
If the offer for Smart is too high the Celtics won't match.  If the offer is high but tolerable...I wouldn't be suprised to see the Celtics match and then trade him (a deal already waiting with some team kind of scenario).

He's my favorite Celtic of the moment but I think he's likely to be moving on...

If the Celtics think Robert Williams will reach his defensive potential sooner rather than later...they may see Smart's awesome defensive presence as a bit less worth paying for (as long as they have good defense against the three for GS). 

On the other hand...when one player has a motor that needs a little kick start...Smart would make a great kick starter for Williams, as he is for the whole team already...

Baynes is very necessary imo.

Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: RockinRyA on June 26, 2018, 02:51:28 AM
That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

You do know that Kyrie and Smart went down at the same time, correct?  Smart played in exactly zero games in the regular season in which Rozier started, and averaged 5 minutes more per game overall despite Rozier picking up a ton of minutes after both Kyrie and Smart went down.  There’s no trend.

EDIT: Also, you cite Smart’s mere 24.2 MPG in February, which occurred in the four games post all-star break.  In those same four games, Rozier averaged only 22.3 minutes, and the only game in which he played more than Smart was a 28 point blowout of the Hornets, in which he got some of the garbage time minutes and no one on the roster played more than 24 minutes (Rozier got the most PT of anyone).

There’s no evidence that, during the regular season when both players were healthy, that Rozier was ahead of Smart in the rotation.  None, even after Rozier had started to break out in the second half.

Mea culpa on individual regular season games -- 'shoulda checked the game logs.   The overall trend there was more of a close tie in usage. 

I think my overall position is still well supported by what happened in the playoffs, though.   Stevens leaned extremely heavily on Rozier in the playoffs, with the latter logging 31+ minutes in all but one game and 35+ in the vast majority of them.   Smart, meanwhile broke 35+ in just one playoff game and was under 30 in a full third of them.

And you still haven't addressed the core positional issue on next year's roster:   Where is Smart getting his minutes?  Is he taking them back from Kyrie or Rozier?   Is he taking them from Gordon or Jaylen?

Sure, if guys get injured, it's nice to have a quality bench guy to lean on that you feel okay giving 25-30 minutes to.  But how much money do you tie up with on that guy if he's _supposed_ to only get 10-15 mpg if everyone is healthy?   And how many years do you sign him for?  Three?  Four?  Jaylen is going to need to be resigned in 2020.   The cost of that will have tax compounded on it already.   Paying the premium on the last year or two of a bench player's contract for the same position?  Not good financing.

In the playoffs, Smart was coming off missing six weeks of basketball and was playing with a splint on his hand.  Of course he played fewer minutes than Rozier.  You can’t call that a trend, completely devoid of all context.

Stevens runs all kinds of lineups out there.  Sometimes it will be one guard and four forwards, sometimes it will be three guards, a forward and a big, and we’ve even seen the occasional four guard lineup.  We don’t need to know exactly who Smart subs in for, because it’s never mattered in the past — he’s always been a 25-30 minute per game player no matter if he’s starting or not, and really no matter who else is healthy.  He can fit into a number of different roles that don’t involve shooting, and in positionless basketball, that gets him ample minutes.

Smart will get 10-12% of the team’s payroll and play about 10% of the minutes.  That is a perfectly reasonable allocation of resources.

I agree. Context is very important in reading statistics, and imho this is what mmmmm often ignores. People keep forgetting Smart and Brown were playing injured in the playoffs, and would just use raw numbers to say that Rozier/Tatum played better than them.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 26, 2018, 12:25:54 PM
Also, it appears that basketball-reference doesn't have Gordon Hayward having played a 50-50 split at SG/SF in his last season in Utah.  They have him playing 70% at SF and 30% at PF in the regular season and in the playoffs it was 38% at SF and 62% at PF.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html#advanced_pbp::none

I used 82games.com numbers for the splits I referenced.

Positional splits are a bit hard because some sites use player tracking data (in slightly different ways) while others use straight lineup substitution data in the play-by-play stream.

Given the trend towards considering SFs and SGs as interchangeable 'wings', this probably isn't that big of distinction to worry about with respect to Hayward.

My larger point is that neither Hayward nor Tatum really have been used as 'PF' to any heavy extent.   Hayward almost none.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 26, 2018, 12:57:59 PM

1.  Kyrie-Rozier-Smart trios are not as unlikely as you think.  In the 49 games last season which the three of them were all active, those three shared the court for a total of 178.5 minutes which averages about 3.6 minutes per game.  The lineup was used in 43 different games out of the 49.  Those lineups were a +9.5 differential in points per 100 possessions (+58 total on the season).  So I don’t think they are that crazy nor that bad of a basketball idea and Brad seems to like them a little bit.
What this tells me is that Brad learned (or had the roster changes) to NOT use these 3-guard lineups so much.   The prior season, he used Isaiah + Avery + Marcus together a massive  418 minutes (plus another 165 in the playoffs).   He also used other 3-guard combinations including Terry.    Overall, he had probably close to a 800 minutes using various 3-guard combos.  Some of those lineup combinations were net positives (the ones with IT generally) but almost all of them were terrible defensively.

Now, a lot of that was driven by roster makeup.  We simply didn't have that much wing depth and from Brad's perspective IT, AB & MS were three of his best players.  So he contrived to keep them on the floor as much as possible.  This meant using Marcus as a 'big wing'.

This last year's (and next year's) rosters are fundamentally different.  We have massively better and deeper wing depth.  This meant Brad had far less incentive to go with 3-guard lineups and only used them when they gave a clear and obvious advantage.   Thus the net ratings for those lineups was good, as you point out.  But really for only a tiny slice of minutes compared to the prior season.

I personally don't think we should really setup our rotation assuming we need to do that (use 3-guard lineups), given the return of Hayward (plus the increased experience development of Jaylen, Jayson, Semi & Nader) means our wing depth will be even stronger.
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2.  For a minute, I liked your idea of putting your best 5 guys in at their positions first.  But the problem with that method is could end up pigeon-holing yourself to possibly need to play your 11th best guy more minutes than your 7th best guy.  Don't you want to play your better players more minutes?

Well, it depends.   Is my 7th best player really more valuable playing (and taking minutes at) the 1-2-3 positions as my 11th best player is at the 5?   

Baynes may or may not be a 'better player' than Smart or Morris.  But he's [dang] certain a better center than either Smart or Morris.    And we have lots of other players who are better at the positions Smart and Morris play.

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3.  We can't keep both of Morris and Baynes, it can only be one. 

Well, I think this statement is only true if you assume we have to keep Smart.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: action781 on June 26, 2018, 01:26:39 PM
mmmmm, I think you're really reaching here what feels like for the sake of arguing.  My claim was simply that Marcus Smart could play 3 minutes per game at SF if we want to get everybody a certain number of minutes, particularly to ensure 25 for Rozier.  You thought those 3 minutes was outrageous.  I showed you that he played over 3 minutes per game at SF last season (I actually neglected to look at 3 guard lineups that might include Larkin too).  Your comeback was that he played even more than 3 minutes per game in 2015-16.

If Brad really wants to play Smart a career-low 22 minutes (including a career-low zero all season at SF) and give those 3 minutes elsewhere, that's fine!  I'm all for it if that's the best recipe for us to win.  I'm just suggesting that Smart could feasibly play 25 minutes, 3 of which coming at SF which has been successful in the past, in a scenario that Rozier still gets 25 minutes and is not squeezed.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: mmmmm on June 26, 2018, 01:37:05 PM
mmmmm, I think you're really reaching here what feels like for the sake of arguing.  My claim was simply that Marcus Smart could play 3 minutes per game at SF if we want to get everybody a certain number of minutes, particularly to ensure 25 for Rozier.  You thought those 3 minutes was outrageous.  I showed you that he played over 3 minutes per game at SF last season (I actually neglected to look at 3 guard lineups that might include Larkin too).  Your comeback was that he played even more than 3 minutes per game in 2015-16.

If Brad really wants to play Smart a career-low 22 minutes (including a career-low zero all season at SF) and give those 3 minutes elsewhere, that's fine!  I'm all for it if that's the best recipe for us to win.  I'm just suggesting that Smart could feasibly play 25 minutes, 3 of which coming at SF which has been successful in the past, in a scenario that Rozier still gets 25 minutes and is not squeezed.

Well, look.  My point isn't that 3 minutes for Smart at SF is outrageous.  My point is that doing lineup gymnastics simply to get him enough minutes to justify a $14M or so contract that forces you to lose your best true center is not necessarily a good thing.

The OP's contention was that Baynes is the odd man out.  When I look at the roster makeup, especially given our very strong wing depth, I'm not sure he is the odd man out.    The odd man out should be whomever is getting squeezed out of playing 'wing' minutes.  And that isn't Aron Baynes.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: TheSundanceKid on June 26, 2018, 01:37:36 PM
The whole Smart at SF argument is ridiculous. The poster had Haywards playing 3 mpg at SG so just switch them round...

The simple facts are that Smart plays significant minutes in all situations when healthy. It really doesn't matter what the other options are, he gets the minutes. This coming year will be no different if he returns.

If Baynes doesn't return I fully expect us to pick up a big man to fill a large proportion of his minutes in the same way. We make a significant effort to not play Horford at C for lengthy spells in the regular season.

Morris and Rozier will be the ones that suffer a loss of minutes. Morris because of the return of Hayward, Rozier because of the health of Smart and Irving. We will have the choice of moving them before the season starts in the same way we had the choice in moving Bradley, Ainge will have done his research.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Fafnir on June 26, 2018, 02:13:07 PM
The C's aren't going to only carry two 5s (Horford/Theis) who have shown they can play, especially with Theis coming off a knee injury.

Morris doesn't hold that much sway over the C's rotation.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Fafnir on June 26, 2018, 02:19:34 PM
The OP's contention was that Baynes is the odd man out.  When I look at the roster makeup, especially given our very strong wing depth, I'm not sure he is the odd man out.    The odd man out should be whomever is getting squeezed out of playing 'wing' minutes.  And that isn't Aron Baynes.
Agreed.

Even if Baynes play slips and he does fall out of the rotation, prejudging that Morris needs minutes and that we only need 1 traditional big man other than Horford seems wildly premature.

Not to mention matchup issues with bruisers or ability to absorb some foul trouble.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: dreamgreen on July 01, 2018, 08:13:30 AM
WRONG!

I keep telling you Smart lovers over value him!
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Tr1boy on July 01, 2018, 08:21:12 AM
say again?

had a good feeling he would resign
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: vjcsmoke on July 01, 2018, 08:56:53 AM
So do you admit that you were WRONG about Baynes being the odd man out?

He's the guy we just resigned!

I think Morris is more likely to be that guy.

Or if Smart doesn't come back for the QO, he might be that guy.

Maybe we sign and trade him to the Spurs if Kahwi becomes seriously available?
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Celtics4ever on July 01, 2018, 09:01:36 AM
Baynes is back and he is not the odd man out and we added Williams for depth.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Bobshot on July 01, 2018, 11:53:36 AM
Baynes is back and he is not the odd man out and we added Williams for depth.

Baynes signed for 2/$11M, and the twitter word is he signed for whatever "fit" in the Celtics cap situation. Ainge did say they wanted him back, and he was true to his word.

Perhaps they now have a little more cap room to better deal with Smart.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: footey on July 01, 2018, 12:01:38 PM
SL did a very reasoned analysis of luxury tax implications but his prediction was off. So what? Analysis as always still solid.
Title: Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
Post by: Roy H. on July 01, 2018, 12:13:27 PM
SL did a very reasoned analysis of luxury tax implications but his prediction was off. So what? Analysis as always still solid.

Agreed. We need more intelligent debate, not less. That means that reasonable arguments are often incorrect.